Apparently, this jockey on the AM is pretty solid according to his numbers. Have to admit though, I might opt to go in the men's room for the race and just listen to the call instead of forcing myself to watch that.
Man, my eyes hurt and I am kind of speechless. Rare for me, Lol.
Horse Racing questions and answers
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if anybody played him with the 6 and 1 they certainly weren't disappointed with the order of finish
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On an unrelated note, I spoke about a steroidal that I threw out of my barn and can’t say enough bad things about a couple of weeks ago. I couldn’t remember the name of that garbage but saw it written today so I thought I would pass it along.
its name is Clenbuterol. It was very popular in the 90’s and now illegal. I happened to see it when reading about the quarter horse positives that are ongoing.
IMO, anyone using that kind of garbage should have their license revoked.
While I understand the short term use on a farm, out of competition, and under strict observation by a licensed vet that is working in the horse’s best interest, it has no place IMO on the racetrack.
and those quarter horse trainers that got multiple positives with steroids? They should be glad I’m not the judge.Leave a comment:
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All I can say is wow with the way...#2 come on mulitch was ridden.. unreal the horse ran well despite the jockey interferenceLeave a comment:
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On an unrelated note, I spoke about a steroidal that I threw out of my barn and can’t say enough bad things about a couple of weeks ago. I couldn’t remember the name of that garbage but saw it written today so I thought I would pass it along.
its name is Clenbuterol. It was very popular in the 90’s and now illegal. I happened to see it when reading about the quarter horse positives that are ongoing.
IMO, anyone using that kind of garbage should have their license revoked.
While I understand the short term use on a farm, out of competition, and under strict observation by a licensed vet that is working in the horse’s best interest, it has no place IMO on the racetrack.
and those quarter horse trainers that got multiple positives with steroids? They should be glad I’m not the judge.
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I agree JBEX. This AM does have upside and hidden form as well as liking the grass in all probability. I just noticed that a couple of others have kind of the same thing. Real nice % for this AM trainer in this situation for sure. And agree, the 1 is too easy and with all the other hidden form/ nice %'s floating around in here, if I played it would have to include some exactas or triple with the AM and some of those others that have muddied form. Plenty of good numbers with several to find a nice payout if you can put it together.
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1 7 8 10 have run decent races from limited opportunities in turf routes but the 1 is way too obvious and always avoid those types in maiden races..don't care for the trainer to boot..like something that's at least a little hidden..horse by army mule's trainer is excellent with new turf runners has a nice inside post and highly likely to be on the lead by himself ..AM's ,as you know, like the turf (just had a debut winner going 2 turns over the weekend) and pioneer of the nile (dam sire and also sire of american pharoah) is above avg with turf runners and has some nice class to go with it
..between his races and works should be fit .. lots of good things here imo
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This race has horses jumping up and running well, then running not very well . Just kind of all over the place IMO. Also some solid percentages on trainers with certain situations. A lot to take in.
Without watching these run before, it seems like half the field could win, including this one. This would take a lot of film study to sort them out for me. Do you see it like that JBEX?
..between his races and works should be fit .. lots of good things here imo
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This race has horses jumping up and running well, then running not very well . Just kind of all over the place IMO. Also some solid percentages on trainers with certain situations. A lot to take in.
Without watching these run before, it seems like half the field could win, including this one. This would take a lot of film study to sort them out for me. Do you see it like that JBEX?Leave a comment:
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no big deal str .. the 2 things that caught my eye were how she quickly spurted away from the pack when they got close (about 38 secs on track reply)
and the final 3-4 secs of the race appeared to be a hand ride ..my thought was she did it easy and might be good for a quick comeback..what you said makes sense..monitor and see..have to think they are at least considering running in that race
should be interesting.Leave a comment:
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Sorry JBEX. I missed the fact that she has run before. Just been distracted the last few days.
I guess that slow time is in line with older boys. Still didn’t really like how she looked late. Have to watch it again I guess.
if I had to make the choice of running back quickly or not, I think my approach would be not to run her but give her the chance to talk me into it by all she shows and eats, acts, etc. What I mean is, I would give her the opportunity to talk me into running her for the next two - three days or so .
and the final 3-4 secs of the race appeared to be a hand ride ..my thought was she did it easy and might be good for a quick comeback..what you said makes sense..monitor and see..have to think they are at least considering running in that raceLeave a comment:
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thanks str
these were the final 2 calls of her race and a race for the boys later on in the card..latter same distance of course
1:00.97 / 1:15.12 (14.15)
3up ohio msw fillies (hers)
1:00.74 / 1:13.90 (13.16)
3up open alw n2L boys
I would think about a second final eighth and time would be about right ,maybe even good, factoring msw ohio fillies vs open alw colts
also she wasn't a debut horse and was making her 5th career start..we discussed this horse before in her previous start
I guess that slow time is in line with older boys. Still didn’t really like how she looked late. Have to watch it again I guess.
if I had to make the choice of running back quickly or not, I think my approach would be not to run her but give her the chance to talk me into it by all she shows and eats, acts, etc. What I mean is, I would give her the opportunity to talk me into running her for the next two - three days or so .Leave a comment:
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Hmm. Such a perfect post, break, and setup, I was a bit surprised with the way she finished to be honest. I suppose that track is slow?? That last 1/8th in 15 is ugly and I do not care for the fronts ON as a firster. Guess she needs them but wonder why?
With everything going a perfect as you could ask for, and finishing up in :15 the last 1/8th, making a determination from what I saw, I would not run her back in 6 days. I think she needs to be more solid which could be as simple as foundation and needing to build that up but I have a hunch that race might have taken more out of her than it should have.
My guess would be, pass the race and work on getting the horse better in every way.
With breaking nicely, having the box, and the race pretty much over after 5 seconds, I feel she could have been much better than she showed. Just my feeling. Certainly could be wrong but it didn't feel as good as it should have for me.
these were the final 2 calls of her race and a race for the boys later on in the card..latter same distance of course
1:00.97 / 1:15.12 (14.15)
3up ohio msw fillies (hers)
1:00.74 / 1:13.90 (13.16)
3up open alw n2L boys
I would think about a second final eighth and time would be about right ,maybe even good, factoring msw ohio fillies vs open alw colts
also she wasn't a debut horse and was making her 5th career start..we discussed this horse before in her previous start
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they have an alw n2L for 3 year old fillies (only) @ 6f on 3/31 ..it's open company but I think it doesn't make as much of a difference there at about a $26k purse ; plus they have up to $15k in breeders awards for ohio bred horses ..pretty nice ! with such a convincing win you think they might consider trying that race coming back in only 1 week str .. especially factoring you have an army mule class edge ? assuming the connections might view it that way also lol
With everything going a perfect as you could ask for, and finishing up in :15 the last 1/8th, making a determination from what I saw, I would not run her back in 6 days. I think she needs to be more solid which could be as simple as foundation and needing to build that up but I have a hunch that race might have taken more out of her than it should have.
My guess would be, pass the race and work on getting the horse better in every way.
With breaking nicely, having the box, and the race pretty much over after 5 seconds, I feel she could have been much better than she showed. Just my feeling. Certainly could be wrong but it didn't feel as good as it should have for me.Leave a comment:
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they have an alw n2L for 3 year old fillies (only) @ 6f on 3/31 ..it's open company but I think it doesn't make as much of a difference there at about a $26k purse ; plus they have up to $15k in breeders awards for ohio bred horses ..pretty nice ! with such a convincing win you think they might consider trying that race coming back in only 1 week str .. especially factoring you have an army mule class edge ? assuming the connections might view it that way also lolLeave a comment:
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I forgot to mention the blinkers BACK ON. 22% the trainer is in that spot. That was a real factor in this horses form as well.Leave a comment:
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^ THX STR your take makes sense. 50/1 shots don't happen too often and there is a reason for that. LOL. I figured with shades on and improved works (and trainer good with blinks back on) it was worth a shot at those odds. THX again.Leave a comment:
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Hey STR: want to get your professional opinion on AQ R9 today. The horse in question is the #3 First Pitch. He wired the field at 9 panels and scored at 50/1. You can access the form thru Speightster. He did nothing first 2 starts. The trainer put the shades back on after taking them off his 2nd start. His works seemed to improve recently. I know you have said many times the shades can make a big difference. Would you have considered the recent works if you were looking over the form before the race? THX.
So while most works are at a running start. Gate works are from a stand still. That is why they add 7 seconds instead of maybe 6 seconds. Hope that part makes sense.
So a 48 from the gate is actually faster than a 48 from the pole because the pole horse ran into the pole while the gate worker started at a standstill.
All that said, if I had done this race, this horse would have survived my first cut and certainly made it to the 2nd round of viewing all the horses. Depending on the rest of the field, I then would have placed this horse in my head as possible speed or position based on blinkers on. Once I decided on the basic shape of speed, stalk, close, I cannot say I would have had this horse still in consideration late but most handicappers probably dismissed this one immediately and there is no way I would have.
When I looked at the pp's and did what I would have done, which you are familiar with, I would have found the 1,2,4, and maybe 6 as possible speeds. The common theme between them all is that none of them are very solid at all. I see no real threat as a closer in here at all. They are plodders, which these 1 1/8th maidens are most of the time.
So this horse would have survived until the final 4 horses were more scrutinized. The blinkers ON and the very nice and better than before works would have allowed me to not throw the 3 out most likely.
Then I would have had to settle on who I thought could finish up. I cannot possibly say that I would have used this horse. I don't know what I would have concluded. But looking again at the closers and having no use for the speeds, there is at least some chance I would have made a small ,play on this horse simply because the field was terrible, he was blinkers on, and had improved works, especially that gate work which was 12 /183 and the latest work 5/154.
But being totally honest EZ, while I could have maybe landed on a small win bet on this horse, it would have been for the fact that this field was terrible . AND, I cannot see how I would have concluded that he would go wire to wire. No way. I would have bet him thinking maybe he can lay 4th or 5th to very slow horses 4 or 5 lengths off the lead held by the slow, weak speeds, and blinkers ON maybe gets him running late and out finishing the slow plodders.
So that would have been on of those races where you look really sharp but you know in your head you were just taking a shot on the works and blks. on and against a terrible field, and it worked.
Does that make sense EZ?Leave a comment:
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Following a scary incident at the top of the stretch in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park March 22, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. was happy to report California Burrito emerged from the race in good order. "We're so blessed that everything's fine," Drury Jr. said March 23. "The good news is, as of this morning, he looks to be very sound. He was quiet—he ran hard and was tired—but absolutely nothing out of the ordinary."
Drury Jr. said after conversations with the colt's apprentice rider, Irving Moncada, that they believe the incident was caused by California Burrito spooking at tire tracks left over from the starting gate's removal. "He had locked onto the tire track well before he got to it. Anybody that's ridden horses; you can feel them sucking back on you," Drury Jr. said. "(Moncada) said all of a sudden the head came up and (California Burrito) just kind of shut off. When he got to the tire tracks, he couldn't decide if he wanted to jump it or duck away from it. He ended up just kind of halfway stumbling over it." Once the incident occurred, the race was lost and Moncada started to ease up on his mount and make sure the colt made it back safe, a move Drury Jr. praised. "This is where Irving is a little bit ahead of his ti
And if they are thinking, something I elude to often while watching these replays, it directly affects there stride and focus. That's what happened in that race.
Appreciate the update EZ.Leave a comment:
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Following a scary incident at the top of the stretch in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park March 22, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. was happy to report California Burrito emerged from the race in good order. "We're so blessed that everything's fine," Drury Jr. said March 23. "The good news is, as of this morning, he looks to be very sound. He was quiet—he ran hard and was tired—but absolutely nothing out of the ordinary."
Drury Jr. said after conversations with the colt's apprentice rider, Irving Moncada, that they believe the incident was caused by California Burrito spooking at tire tracks left over from the starting gate's removal. "He had locked onto the tire track well before he got to it. Anybody that's ridden horses; you can feel them sucking back on you," Drury Jr. said. "(Moncada) said all of a sudden the head came up and (California Burrito) just kind of shut off. When he got to the tire tracks, he couldn't decide if he wanted to jump it or duck away from it. He ended up just kind of halfway stumbling over it." Once the incident occurred, the race was lost and Moncada started to ease up on his mount and make sure the colt made it back safe, a move Drury Jr. praised. "This is where Irving is a little bit ahead of his tiLeave a comment:
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fg R5 .. last all the way around @ 35-1
oak R9 .. battled on the inside to stretch call and finished well out of the money @ 11-1 ..2nd consecutive race on the rail in a big field so hopefully will get a better post next out (considering it was only his 3rd career start) ..very inexpensive horse to start with so may eventually need softer company at a lesser track
gulfstream R9 ..scratched
tampa R9..broke maiden in her first career start (today) .. was a turf route and that's always an impressive feat ..paid $21Leave a comment:
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oak R9 .. battled on the inside to stretch call and finished well out of the money @ 11-1 ..2nd consecutive race on the rail in a big field so hopefully will get a better post next out (considering it was only his 3rd career start) ..very inexpensive horse to start with so may eventually need softer company at a lesser track
gulfstream R9 ..scratched
tampa R9..broke maiden in her first career start (today) .. was a turf route and that's always an impressive feat ..paid $21Leave a comment:
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Hey STR: want to get your professional opinion on AQ R9 today. The horse in question is the #3 First Pitch. He wired the field at 9 panels and scored at 50/1. You can access the form thru Speightster. He did nothing first 2 starts. The trainer put the shades back on after taking them off his 2nd start. His works seemed to improve recently. I know you have said many times the shades can make a big difference. Would you have considered the recent works(as indication that he would run well) if you were handicapping the race? THX.Leave a comment:
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Thanks STR and JBEX, Yes disappointed for sure..... Just shows how hard the game is. And you were right STR he did grab a quarter.
Caldera Follow Up
The Lukas barn reports that Caldera appears thus far to have exited yesterday’s race in pretty good order. He did grab a quarter (when a horse’s back foot clips the heel area of their front foot)—most likely coming out of the gate—but scoped clean and jogged sound. He is on his way back to Oaklawn now.
Consensus among both Team Lukas and our racing team is that Caldera is still a somewhat immature horse mentally and the rough start was just more than he could overcome. He also didn’t seem to handle the track particularly well.
We’ll let him get back to Arkansas and see how he returns to training. We wouldn’t necessarily be in a rush to bring him back in another Derby prep, but will let The Coach make that determination after observing him for a bit.
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This horse jumped the area where the gate was and the dirt was disturbed. I don't know if he had enough to finish and win. I think maybe not, but, he would have been much closer. When he jumped, he landed back on his left lead, which was tired, then switched but he was too busy thinking about what had happened. His mental was gone and so was the race.
One other thing. I have no idea what the jockey was doing just before the break. It looked like his right foot came out of the iron just as they broke. That made for a crummy break and startled the horse a bit. I would have had to ask the rider what the heck that was. It certainly did not help.
Let's see if he wears a shadow roll in his next race. That will help and probably get him back to the winners circle. This could very well be a play back next out. Keep an eye on the Burrito man.
that winner looks like a serious horse and bred to run all day and tons of class sire and broodmare sire combo (another tapit dam sire like garamond,kingsbarns).."not this this time"around the same fee as uncle mo ..get a few starts in them where they display some talent and a huge jump forward always possible ..hoping that's the case if garamond goes in the wood memorial
thought it was a great showing overall for the 5 army mule's with bel pensiero and shadow dragon winning .. the brad cox firster ran a really nice 4th and only a matter of time till he gets it done .. maybe the early turfway horse top will be in a good position to cut back off that race .. think it might give him some bottom in a sprint next out
real sorry to see caldera lose batt..with liam's map ,the significance of his name(which we discussed)the sire future and of course you having shares through myracehorse would've been a fun horse to continue on with ..hopefully he's ok and as he gets more experience becomes a nice horse
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This horse jumped the area where the gate was and the dirt was disturbed. I don't know if he had enough to finish and win. I think maybe not, but, he would have been much closer. When he jumped, he landed back on his left lead, which was tired, then switched but he was too busy thinking about what had happened. His mental was gone and so was the race.
One other thing. I have no idea what the jockey was doing just before the break. It looked like his right foot came out of the iron just as they broke. That made for a crummy break and startled the horse a bit. I would have had to ask the rider what the heck that was. It certainly did not help.
Let's see if he wears a shadow roll in his next race. That will help and probably get him back to the winners circle. This could very well be a play back next out. Keep an eye on the Burrito man.Leave a comment:
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I totally understand with the new website design STR... I'm still working on figuring things out also.
Glad business is good!
Remember Caldera races today! As far as sweet voyage these kinds of races seem to bring in longshots at Turfway with trainers moving their horses up and down the levels. I hope she runs well crossing my fingers!
He settled some and was maybe ok down the backside but when the rider had to ask to keep up with the 2 horse into the turn, he just was not there.
When you take these big steps in quality competition and things go wrong, it only looks worse when more talent than he has run against who DID have thing just fine early run on . I think the rider did the right thing and after asking around the turn, he just folded up and finished without more pressure. It is hard to watch at the time, but after the fact, it is better for the horse.
So this was a hope and a push to see if he could make the Derby. Now, if those plans are aborted, he can get back to feeling good about himself, and maybe get a slight bit of class relief which should help him get back on track with positive vibes and results.
He has talent Batt. But Caldera needs to feel he does as well as us see it. That can happen. Just takes time and some luck along the way. When he runs back, II have to think he will show much better.
Sweet Voyage tried hard. She had a decent position early, and seemed to get a nice breather all alone further down the backside. She kicked when asked it looked like , around the turn. I thought she might be right there 1/2 way around the turn but it looked like she got tired quickly as they turned for home. She kind of went from a pull to a drive in two strides. She was aware of that as she was late switching back to her right lead. That can be simply the horse thinking about something else ( breathing or tired, whatever) but something disrupted her race flow it seemed.
It looked like she just lost her air flow or lung capacity there. Scoping might answer that question if they did it after the race. IMO, when they go from a pull to a drive in two strides, it is either mental, like a distraction, or physical, like breathing pattern changing . A look into the airway would help answer if that existed or not.
Either way, if that can be attended to, this is a perfect time to find class relief in that, if she can sustain through the lane, and we saw her do that when she broke her maiden, she can improve a lot in her next start. Kind of depends on what actually happened, and if that can be addressed so it does not happen again. If so, her next start, with a little class drop should be much much better. Hope that makes sense.
Bottom line on both is they are in a situation now for both to run big when they come back. Just have to clean a few things up Batt.
They will.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..sunday
lots of bombers
fairgrounds 5 @ 3:45
#10 hope restored (12-1)
tampa 9 @ 4:35
#6 hymn of heaven (20-1)
gulfstream 9 @ 4:50
#4 grade a (9-2)
oaklawn 9 @ 6pm
#1 razorback army (10-1)
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