Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

usefull effort and certainly gave him some foundation..wouldn't be surprised if there's improvement over his next few starts



.

interesting thing ..even bottom of the barrel horses at oaklawn (because it's a top level track)who show some ability have a life at places like canterbury, prarie meadows, oklahoma and texas tracks etc..he's not there yet but just pointing out there are other paths if he can't get it done




.

[JBEX]

I saw the claiming price difference. Not a bad idea. I think I like it.

And if that bug is a leading rider type, getting that bug’s services might require a positive story told to the agent. Interesting.

usefull effort and certainly gave him some foundation..wouldn't be surprised if there's improvement over his next few starts



.

[str]

plus a 5lb bug who's one of the better ones i believe..also interesting that ark breds are up for a higher tag ..little perk for the locals

it is a muddy track now but AM's handle that well




.

I saw the claiming price difference. Not a bad idea. I think I like it.

And if that bug is a leading rider type, getting that bug’s services might require a positive story told to the agent. Interesting.

[JBEX]

I think this one actually has a chance with the big drop down, lasix, gelded, Ark. bred etc.
Typically., when you see this much adjustment, the trainer is on a mission to get results quickly.

That low a price at auction usually means a crooked leg or confirmation flaw but it can’t measure heart and AM,s seem to have them.
This should be interesting.

plus a 5lb bug who's one of the better ones i believe..also interesting that ark breds are up for a higher tag ..little perk for the locals

it is a muddy track now but AM's handle that well




.

[str]

by army mule..oak R2 #1 razorback army (12-1) @ 2:03 ..did nothing @ 48-1 in his 2yo debut @ laurel last start ..trainer change,gelded,drop and lasix added ..may not matter as he cost less than a used car with 200k miles on it lol..chance it will be an off track by forecast

I think this one actually has a chance with the big drop down, lasix, gelded, Ark. bred etc.
Typically., when you see this much adjustment, the trainer is on a mission to get results quickly.

That low a price at auction usually means a crooked leg or confirmation flaw but it can’t measure heart and AM,s seem to have them.
This should be interesting.

[JBEX]

by army mule..oak R2 #1 razorback army (12-1) @ 2:03 ..did nothing @ 48-1 in his 2yo debut @ laurel last start ..trainer change,gelded,drop and lasix added ..may not matter as he cost less than a used car with 200k miles on it lol..chance it will be an off track by forecast

[batt33]

Boy I just sux. A shadow of my former self. As you all know Owen owes me a lot of money. I was intent on at least $100 to win at ML 5-1. 2 talking heads pick him and he goes from 7/2 to 5/2 last flash. Owner says even if he wins we're not going to the derby. I've got $10 to him winning the KD future at 60-1? Long story I get spooked and bet $20 to win.

Meanwhile, he made Chancer look like me chasing him down the stretch.

Ive felt that pain Madison

[batt33]

Last start Jan/25 was 1st back since May/24 debut. I'd mortgage my home to get him at ML.

He really took off down the stretch when he finally changed leads.... looked like the jockey and him were fighting at the top of the stretch.

[JBEX]

it was a nice race but the older stakes horses tied a track record at the same distance earlier in the card ..OA ran over a second slower to the 3/4's and final time a little more than that of the other race..he's bred to be a sprinter top and bottom and I think they'll stick with going to the pat day mile which is the perfect spot for him

chancer imo got just what he needed in that race and if ok will go to a final derby prep somewhere..remember also your horse was 3rd off a layoff and CM hadn't raced since the breeders cup

I had it OM and it's OA (owen almighty)..corrected

[JBEX]

Boy I just sux. A shadow of my former self. As you all know Owen owes me a lot of money. I was intent on at least $100 to win at ML 5-1. 2 talking heads pick him and he goes from 7/2 to 5/2 last flash. Owner says even if he wins we're not going to the derby. I've got $10 to him winning the KD future at 60-1? Long story I get spooked and bet $20 to win.

Meanwhile, he made Chancer look like me chasing him down the stretch.

it was a nice race but the older stakes horses tied a track record at the same distance earlier in the card ..OA ran over a second slower to the 3/4's and final time a little more than that of the other race..he's bred to be a sprinter top and bottom and I think they'll stick with going to the pat day mile which is the perfect spot for him

chancer imo got just what he needed in that race and if ok will go to a final derby prep somewhere..remember also your horse was 3rd off a layoff and CM hadn't raced since the breeders cup

[Madison]

Boy I just sux. A shadow of my former self. As you all know Owen owes me a lot of money. I was intent on at least $100 to win at ML 5-1. 2 talking heads pick him and he goes from 7/2 to 5/2 last flash. Owner says even if he wins we're not going to the derby. I've got $10 to him winning the KD future at 60-1? Long story I get spooked and bet $20 to win.

Meanwhile, he made Chancer look like me chasing him down the stretch.

[JBEX]

yes what develops between her and the 7 early will have a big say in the outcome ..imo it's a big show of confidence to do this ..have to think with many alw races being optional claimers they'd have a 3 and up nw2ot scheduled at some point in the coming month or two..logic being you need a place for the older high claimers to run also..not an easy spot at all but like the aggressiveness by a trainer who knows her stuff







.

I am wrong about this and in a previous post which I don't feel like searching for lol you mentioned there might not be an allowance race for her ..looked at the book and you are correct ..probably why they ran her today



.

[JBEX]

Making his 3rd start after a lay off .. by the times of his workouts been training well. Race 10 at Santa Anita number #7
4:47 post time.

Last start Jan/25 was 1st back since May/24 debut. I'd mortgage my home to get him at ML.

like #6 none above the law (5-1)

won off a surface switch, lateral class and distance move on 6/22..similiar running line to today's also..consider statebred stakes to open alw (today) similiar in class

[Madison]

Making his 3rd start after a lay off .. by the times of his workouts been training well. Race 10 at Santa Anita number #7
4:47 post time.

Last start Jan/25 was 1st back since May/24 debut. I'd mortgage my home to get him at ML.

[batt33]

Just noticed "Eagles Flight" half brother to Flightline made his second start today after a long layoff. If you recall He trounced " Visceral" a horse I had a part of in his first start
.https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ree-length-win

In a Merry go round race "Mirahmadi" a Baffert trained horse led pretty much wire to wire Flightline ran second.

Making his 3rd start after a lay off .. by the times of his workouts been training well. Race 10 at Santa Anita number #7
4:47 post time.

[batt33]

Yeah Batt. No matter what we all do, it is the little things that can add up to success or failure as I am sure you know.

that's for sure!

[batt33]

It is the same thing we do in here when I mention that a horse did not relax, or ran off, or had something mentally traumatic completely compromise it's effort and show form that is not indicative of the horses true , IMO, ability's.

Palace Malice ran in the Ky. Derby in 2013. He was blinkers ON that day. He got all stirred up and he ran like a wild deer. 22 2/5ths, 45 1/5th, 109 4/5ths on the lead and hit the wall . His energy simply drained out too fast.

Pletcher, his trainer, skipped the Preakness and took the blinkers OFF for the Belmont. It was the horses home track and the thought was he would be a completely different horse at Belmont and relax instead of run like his tail was on fire.

So we keyed him on top only to win, in the exacta with Orb, probably the best all around horse in the triple crown races, and Oxbow who had just won the Preakness. We were up about 100 and change for the day just betting about 20-40 total per race and splitting all bets, so we simply keyed Palace Malice 1st only, to win, then on top only in the exacta with Oxbow and Orb, again in the triple with those two underneath in both 2nd and 3rd positions and I found a horse who had run at Belmont last out against a pretty severe bias and performed well under those circumstances and tossed him in with Owbox and Orb under Palace Malice in the super.
The bet was simple. If Palace Malice wins, we win. If he gets beat, we break even on the day and had fun doing it.

We hit all the tickets. I don't remember the exact amounts of each bet but they were all for 1.00 play in the Super. It was like about 20 win, 20 exacta each way, 2.00 triple each way 2nd and 3rd and 1.00 super with the winner on top and all three under. When they all hit, after taxes withheld of about 2K from the super it was around 11K or 12 that we cut up each.

That is why I have always felt that if you have a solid opinion on a horse, you can play around with it and get lucky. You don't have to bet a ton of money. Try and keep in fun and at the same time a logical play.

That is all we did that day. And it was winnings from the day while waiting for the Belmont to run so that was even better.
That is a memory with most likely my best friend in life that we will share forever, The money was great to win, but the memory is priceless.

That's Awesome STR!

[JBEX]

Chancer McPatrick.

I saw the post about him. The flake of bone that they took out could have happened in his last race but often times it is something that developed over a couple of races or works. That is pretty routine these days, I guess like going in and cleaning out an area that is collecting slight debris like an ankle joint in the front or in the upper knee joints. Arthroscopic is so routine these days compared to years ago.

Perfect time to do it so that makes sense as well. Just no way to know from our vantage point JBEX how much it freed the horse up stride wise. Have to assume it certainly did. But IMO, he is kind of starting from scratch again with the two turn races. We saw him dominate around 1 turn. But two is a different story so we will learn a lot in today's race I think.
Thanks for the heads up.

I thought I may have posted about him a couple of days ago ..memory's just awful

I think with all the 2yo experience this horse had a later start makes some sense..2 races to the derby not so uncommon if he's up to it..lots of pace in this race and small field so really nice set up for him..maybe the blinkers help also ..think he's going to run a solid race today



.

[JBEX]

That looks like a really interesting race. Not at all easy but Army Gal is pretty solid herself.

Probably the only race for her for the next 6-8 weeks so it makes sense too me.

That run down the backside could be a real cat and mouse game with the 7 horse. Should be very interesting.

yes what develops between her and the 7 early will have a big say in the outcome ..imo it's a big show of confidence to do this ..have to think with many alw races being optional claimers they'd have a 3 and up nw2ot scheduled at some point in the coming month or two..logic being you need a place for the older high claimers to run also..not an easy spot at all but like the aggressiveness by a trainer who knows her stuff







.

[str]

Chancer McPatrick.

I saw the post about him. The flake of bone that they took out could have happened in his last race but often times it is something that developed over a couple of races or works. That is pretty routine these days, I guess like going in and cleaning out an area that is collecting slight debris like an ankle joint in the front or in the upper knee joints. Arthroscopic is so routine these days compared to years ago.

Perfect time to do it so that makes sense as well. Just no way to know from our vantage point JBEX how much it freed the horse up stride wise. Have to assume it certainly did. But IMO, he is kind of starting from scratch again with the two turn races. We saw him dominate around 1 turn. But two is a different story so we will learn a lot in today's race I think.
Thanks for the heads up.

[str]

You always keep me on my toes to look at the races more closely!

Yeah Batt. No matter what we all do, it is the little things that can add up to success or failure as I am sure you know.

[str]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1284973811.mp4

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Workout Update
[/COLOR]
Caldera worked five furlongs this morning at Oaklawn Park outside of stablemate Ripped, covering the distance in a bullet :59.20. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is still mulling over Derby prep options for your son of Liam’s Map, but Louisiana continues to be the front runner as of this moment. We will pass along any updates as soon as a decision has been made.

Excellent work and gallop out IMO .

[str]

figured I'd move forward

by army mule ..aqu R4 #6 army gal (5-2) @ 2:13


returns in 6 days and stretches to a mile vs stakes horses..she must really like her





.

That looks like a really interesting race. Not at all easy but Army Gal is pretty solid herself.

Probably the only race for her for the next 6-8 weeks so it makes sense too me.

That run down the backside could be a real cat and mouse game with the 7 horse. Should be very interesting.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ THX for the recollection STR. Always fun to be on the right side in this game. I love the shades off angle when handicapping. I find a lot of horses run well 1st off especially at times for big odds. THX.

[str]

Hey STR: tell us about the story where you put up a BILL on a horse race and returned 11K with a good friend of yours. Did you hit a super etc? THX.

It is the same thing we do in here when I mention that a horse did not relax, or ran off, or had something mentally traumatic completely compromise it's effort and show form that is not indicative of the horses true , IMO, ability's.

Palace Malice ran in the Ky. Derby in 2013. He was blinkers ON that day. He got all stirred up and he ran like a wild deer. 22 2/5ths, 45 1/5th, 109 4/5ths on the lead and hit the wall . His energy simply drained out too fast.

Pletcher, his trainer, skipped the Preakness and took the blinkers OFF for the Belmont. It was the horses home track and the thought was he would be a completely different horse at Belmont and relax instead of run like his tail was on fire.

So we keyed him on top only to win, in the exacta with Orb, probably the best all around horse in the triple crown races, and Oxbow who had just won the Preakness. We were up about 100 and change for the day just betting about 20-40 total per race and splitting all bets, so we simply keyed Palace Malice 1st only, to win, then on top only in the exacta with Oxbow and Orb, again in the triple with those two underneath in both 2nd and 3rd positions and I found a horse who had run at Belmont last out against a pretty severe bias and performed well under those circumstances and tossed him in with Owbox and Orb under Palace Malice in the super.
The bet was simple. If Palace Malice wins, we win. If he gets beat, we break even on the day and had fun doing it.

We hit all the tickets. I don't remember the exact amounts of each bet but they were all for 1.00 play in the Super. It was like about 20 win, 20 exacta each way, 2.00 triple each way 2nd and 3rd and 1.00 super with the winner on top and all three under. When they all hit, after taxes withheld of about 2K from the super it was around 11K or 12 that we cut up each.

That is why I have always felt that if you have a solid opinion on a horse, you can play around with it and get lucky. You don't have to bet a ton of money. Try and keep in fun and at the same time a logical play.

That is all we did that day. And it was winnings from the day while waiting for the Belmont to run so that was even better.
That is a memory with most likely my best friend in life that we will share forever, The money was great to win, but the memory is priceless.

[JBEX]

chancer mcpatrick makes his 3yo debut in the tampa bay derby..R11 #2 (8-5) @ 5:34


.

[JBEX]

While we are on the Army Mule subject and mismanagement of placement for some of these horses by their connections, it will be cool to watch the horse Army Gal that Linda Rice just won her 2nd race in two starts with. As you know, I constantly praise her for putting her horses in really good situations. That's what she does. And the theory of a horse improving by being successful is hopefully something we will witness together.
That said, she is quickly running out of spots without trying a Stake as 2 other than races for 3 year olds in March are hard to fill and may not even be written quite yet. Either way, she will be looking for what is best for the horse which is always a breath of fresh air.

figured I'd move forward

by army mule ..aqu R4 #6 army gal (5-2) @ 2:13


returns in 6 days and stretches to a mile vs stakes horses..she must really like her





.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Something came up. All good but will do it in the morning

[JBEX]

While we are on the Army Mule subject and mismanagement of placement for some of these horses by their connections, it will be cool to watch the horse Army Gal that Linda Rice just won her 2nd race in two starts with. As you know, I constantly praise her for putting her horses in really good situations. That's what she does. And the theory of a horse improving by being successful is hopefully something we will witness together.
That said, she is quickly running out of spots without trying a Stake as 2 other than races for 3 year olds in March are hard to fill and may not even be written quite yet. Either way, she will be looking for what is best for the horse which is always a breath of fresh air.

by army mule ..aqu R4 #6 army gal (5-2) @ 2:13


returns in 6 days and stretches to a mile vs stakes horses..she must really like her




.


...

[str]

Hey STR: tell us about the story where you put up a BILL on a horse race and returned 11K with a good friend of yours. Did you hit a super etc? THX.

Something came up. All good but will do it in the morning

[batt33]

This is actually a really good race to watch on the replay. I encourage you to do it . I will show you something that helps understand what happened from the horses point of view.

When you pull up the replay, only watch the inside eye and head of the 4 horse. That is it. Just his eye that is visible. What you will see is, just before the break, the horse gets scared, or upset, jostled, whatever . At that exact time, this horse is NOT thinking about racing or breaking. He is ONLY thinking about what scared the heck out of him. Now maybe, something pinched him and it hurt and that scared him. I don't know but whatever it was, it had ALL of his attention. That does happen but it typically takes 3-4 seconds, just like it would for you, to catch your breath and get over being very startled. (Put yourself in the horses shoes). You get the crap scared out of you just before the starting pistol goes off, you are still recovering from that after only a second or two, and BANG ! There off. Would you break well and be focused?? I know I wouldn't. IMO, that is exactly what happened here.

The horse was not prepared to break after that event and needed another few seconds, but the starter sprung the latch and he was left flat footed, and not focused. So now what?

What we can hope for is that the trainer saw this and gets that horse back to the gate several times at least in the morning to just load, stand, and back out. Just give him a chance to settle. We can also hope he draws a more outside post next out so less time to be in there, and off the rail where that last experience occurred. If all that can occur, this horse will break much better next out, he will be in focus from the first stride, and if they can find a race with a little class relief, that would be enough to make this guy a winner IMO. Now maybe he cannot get that class relief. Is he good enough to win? Yeah, he might be. Off his 1st race, I felt he could improve and win. He did not get that chance with what went on in this horses world least night while in the gate.

So in my mind, this is a must follow next out.
Please let me/all of us, know when he is entered next. He might even show up with Blinkers "ON'. in his next start. Not saying he needs them but that might be the conclusion drawn from what took place.

Will be fun to follow . Someone write this horse down for an alert please.

You always keep me on my toes to look at the races more closely!

[batt33]

just kind of an even effort to me but admittedly just going by watching the race live and didn't look at a replay..fairgrounds was scratched and the turf paradise horse was pressed on the lead till the quarter pole (1 mile race) where she started to give it up and faded badly the final eighth
..both lightly raced and have a hunch they'll find the winners circle with some time..possibly the turfway horse might need to drop in vs maiden claimers ..the vekoma was impressive and he is ,as we've mentioned, cranking out some really good horses ..by candy ride (sire of gun runner.. $250k fee) think he's going to be an elite sire in the not too distant future..stands for $35k this year and opened at $20k in 2021

you have to keep in mind that AM is still working with mares who were bred to him at a $7500 fee and that will be true again with this years crop of 2yos..you can only do so much and relative to his fee he's a real producer..next years 2yo will be from a $12.5 fee and 2027's will be from a $25k fee so will be interesting how he'll do in the future with higher quality mares

Speaking of young Am's the half brother to Timberlake "Hymn of Heaven " Is still at the farm the most recent work out was 4 F on Feb 25th.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: tell us about the story where you put up a BILL on a horse race and returned 11K with a good friend of yours. Did you hit a super etc? THX.

[str]

it was difficult for me to see the eye but did see a lot of head motion just before the gate opened..also looked like she possibly didn't switch leads till about the 1/8th pole but I'll let you be the final judge of that str



.

Good catch on the lead switch !
That horse was a mess mentally throughout the race.
I think the horse burned more energy mentally than physically.
we need to keep an eye on this one for sure.

[JBEX]

This is actually a really good race to watch on the replay. I encourage you to do it . I will show you something that helps understand what happened from the horses point of view.

When you pull up the replay, only watch the inside eye and head of the 4 horse. That is it. Just his eye that is visible. What you will see is, just before the break, the horse gets scared, or upset, jostled, whatever . At that exact time, this horse is NOT thinking about racing or breaking. He is ONLY thinking about what scared the heck out of him. Now maybe, something pinched him and it hurt and that scared him. I don't know but whatever it was, it had ALL of his attention. That does happen but it typically takes 3-4 seconds, just like it would for you, to catch your breath and get over being very startled. (Put yourself in the horses shoes). You get the crap scared out of you just before the starting pistol goes off, you are still recovering from that after only a second or two, and BANG ! There off. Would you break well and be focused?? I know I wouldn't. IMO, that is exactly what happened here.

The horse was not prepared to break after that event and needed another few seconds, but the starter sprung the latch and he was left flat footed, and not focused. So now what?

What we can hope for is that the trainer saw this and gets that horse back to the gate several times at least in the morning to just load, stand, and back out. Just give him a chance to settle. We can also hope he draws a more outside post next out so less time to be in there, and off the rail where that last experience occurred. If all that can occur, this horse will break much better next out, he will be in focus from the first stride, and if they can find a race with a little class relief, that would be enough to make this guy a winner IMO. Now maybe he cannot get that class relief. Is he good enough to win? Yeah, he might be. Off his 1st race, I felt he could improve and win. He did not get that chance with what went on in this horses world least night while in the gate.

So in my mind, this is a must follow next out.
Please let me/all of us, know when he is entered next. He might even show up with Blinkers "ON'. in his next start. Not saying he needs them but that might be the conclusion drawn from what took place.

Will be fun to follow . Someone write this horse down for an alert please.

it was difficult for me to see the eye but did see a lot of head motion just before the gate opened..also looked like she possibly didn't switch leads till about the 1/8th pole but I'll let you be the final judge of that str



.