Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

by army mule (3) .. thursday

churchill 6 @ 3:27
#5 pinky finger (8-5)


oaklawn 7 @ 4:44
#6 ceepeegee (20-1)


hawthorne 5 @ 5:21
#6 she's inthearmynow (8-1)


__________

churchill R9 @ 5:13
#2 world record (5-2)


makes his 4yo debut






.

[JBEX]

Busy day tomorrow but I do want to watch and respond. If for whatever reason, I bypass that, please remind me.
Good question for sure.

might be too much going on to watch a replay of a 21 time maiden lol

[JBEX]

Hopefully I will be able to watch it tomorrow .... missed the Army Mule today.... well and yesterday too.... good and bad.

yeah no big deal not playing the last 2 ..

3 army mules tomorrow (which I'm going to put up later tonight) including the 2yo who blew out a field of maidens at kee not so long ago ..she's going in a $250k stakes race as the 8-5 ml favorite

on derby day "cal burrito" in the pat day mile and "deterministic" is running at aqu ..lot's of interesting stuff aside from the derby over the next few days

[batt33]

thursday

churchill R9 @ 5:13
#2 world record (5-2)


makes his 4yo debut





.

Hopefully I will be able to watch it tomorrow .... missed the Army Mule today.... well and yesterday too.... good and bad.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: that time of the year. Triple Crown Season. If you look over the form for 2025 KY Derby I am interested to get your thoughts on the race. THX in advance.

[JBEX]

thursday

churchill R9 @ 5:13
#2 world record (5-2)


makes his 4yo debut





.

[JBEX]

yes he is..really should handle this field but will be an underlay for sure .. good effort and they have her next condition going on 5/17 , which they might consider doing based on the timing between her last 2 starts

win

[JBEX]

Excellently spotted. Always nice to see with AM's . Often times as we know, we see trainers trying to do too much too fast.

Patience grasshopper.

yes he is..really should handle this field but will be an underlay for sure .. good effort and they have her next condition going on 5/17 , which they might consider doing based on the timing between her last 2 starts

[str]

by army mule .. weds

tdn 8 @ 4:20

#6 holidays army brat (2-1)

Excellently spotted. Always nice to see with AM's . Often times as we know, we see trainers trying to do too much too fast.

Patience grasshopper.

[JBEX]

by army mule .. weds

tdn 8 @ 4:20

#6 holidays army brat (2-1)

[JBEX]

Busy day tomorrow but I do want to watch and respond. If for whatever reason, I bypass that, please remind me.
Good question for sure.

will do str

[str]

do you think a combination of training 2 or 3 of them along with some film study of others would shed some light on that ?

today's is now 0/21 with lots of 2nd's and 3rd's ..5 years old from the original crop and we've seen her ar least a couple of times along the way .. showed a lot of life and might be an interesting replay to watch .."parxracing" replays very user friendly if you wanted to take a look

Busy day tomorrow but I do want to watch and respond. If for whatever reason, I bypass that, please remind me.
Good question for sure.

[JBEX]

it's #2 la de peluche

[JBEX]

No question I would have claimed at least A COUPLE of them.

I would need to see what makes them all tick.

Can't believe they wouldn't win. Maybe for less, but they would win.

do you think a combination of training 2 or 3 of them along with some film study of others would shed some light on that ?

today's is now 0/21 with lots of 2nd's and 3rd's ..5 years old from the original crop and we've seen her ar least a couple of times along the way .. showed a lot of life and might be an interesting replay to watch .."parxracing" replays very user friendly if you wanted to take a look

[str]

prx R2

an AM finished 3rd by < 2 lengths in a mcl $10k going 7f ..off at 9-2

No question I would have claimed at least A COUPLE of them.

I would need to see what makes them all tick.

Can't believe they wouldn't win. Maybe for less, but they would win.

[JBEX]

prx R2

an AM finished 3rd by < 2 lengths in a mcl $10k going 7f ..off at 9-2

[JBEX]

by army mule .. tuesday

churchill 9

#8 bourbon state (15-1)
@ 4:55



.

[str]

Here's what I find so frustrating about racing. LP R9 OC 56K. #3 out of my stable. Down to 5 entries. Days OFF 1-378, 3-216, 4-211, 5-98, and the 6-18. Unless you have inside insight why would anyone be betting here?

Well, that is true. However, the horses in your stable are seemingly top notch bred horses from big time racing which means you won't find many of those that are asked to run at lesser levels without being given every chance to be elite. It no problem having them in there but any horse who does not run for 9 months or more, has sustained a major problem most likely with at least one mayor surgery. Those types do take 10-15 months sometimes to be ready to go.
Nothing wrong with following the best bred horses but you will find that they are going to get extremely long layoffs compared to less expensive horses.
It goes with the territory of following the elite horses. And as a rule, these horses will be ready to win when they start back. Lesser quality horses (15K runners or less)most likely will not be afforded the same luxury due to cost. Bottom ;line is, less expensive horses are not able to afford the same luxuries as the high end might. Kind of the same as people unfortunately. Not trying to be blunt, just brutally honest and trying to show that there is a difference, again, unfortunately.

Any insight will need to be determined from the trainers stats with length of time off, the rider selected, the workouts, etc.
Hope that makes sense.

[Madison]

And my next stable horse. AQ R7 Now down to 3 horse field. #7 Baff/Irad now 3-5.

[Madison]

Here's what I find so frustrating about racing. LP R9 OC 56K. #3 out of my stable. Down to 5 entries. Days OFF 1-378, 3-216, 4-211, 5-98, and the 6-18. Unless you have inside insight why would anyone be betting here?

[JBEX]

be interesting to know in a situation like this where a sire has exceeded expectations in his first 3 or 4 crops is he likely to at least maintain performance as the fees go up.. realize you have to take into account being bred to higher quality mares

[JBEX]

All that sounds fine JBEX. The nice thing about these AM's is because they always seem to give everything each race, finding a troubled trip that muddies up the form is great because you know the effort from the horse will be there close to 100% of the time next out. That is saying a lot in that I'm not sure I have ever seen that before throughout a large group of horses by the same sire.

yes I had a feeling besides you really liking him in general that from your experience what he has done is something special ..
the consistent effort part which I would not be able to tell is a great thing to know ..can certainly ,as you mentioned, offer value betting them off a troubled trip


hopefully the new crop does well and already off to a good start with blowout winner pinky finger at keeneland

[str]

for the sake of being consistent with what I'm doing related to army mule
have decided that I am no longer going to post "results" for him.. having something to say about a trip or possibly the results of an important race might be an exception to that..if str,batt or anybody else wants to mention something about a result that's fine (really not necessary) but from me it'll just be a notice that one is running

All that sounds fine JBEX. The nice thing about these AM's is because they always seem to give everything each race, finding a troubled trip that muddies up the form is great because you know the effort from the horse will be there close to 100% of the time next out. That is saying a lot in that I'm not sure I have ever seen that before throughout a large group of horses by the same sire.

[JBEX]

out of money @ 2-1


winner $17.80 <<<

for the sake of being consistent with what I'm doing related to army mule
have decided that I am no longer going to post "results" for him.. having something to say about a trip or possibly the results of an important race might be an exception to that..if str,batt or anybody else wants to mention something about a result that's fine (really not necessary) but from me it'll just be a notice that one is running

[JBEX]

army mule saturday



tampa 8 @ 3:55

#2 over the mark (2-1)


oaklawn 5 @ 3:38

#3 razorback army (4-1)




.

out of money @ 2-1


winner $17.80

[JBEX]

army mule sunday

aqu 2

#1 army gal (5-2)
@ 1:42


tam 7

#3 hymn of heaven (15-1)
@ 3:24


woodbine 8

#7 midnight mascot (6-1)
@ 4:41





.

[JBEX]

hmmm wonder who won last year!

that's right seize the grey .. had to look it up with my less than steel trap memory

set up nicely for the cutback to a mile off his last race ..where he belongs imo vs running in the derby

[batt33]

seems like california burrito (army mule) will be running in the pat day mile (derby day) with an outside shot of getting into the derby ..lots of you tube material on him if interested

hmmm wonder who won last year!

[batt33]

Thanks for checking out the result.

That was it's 7th 2nd place, which I am sure many owners would take if told their horse would do that for them. But honestly, it was a real disappointment. It jumped and settled exactly where the trainer asked for. Jockey rode it exactly as asked. Maybe a bit wide on the turn and he said the horse did not like the tight turn on the track. But it had every chance to overhaul the winner but just never gave anything extra. I don't think it knows when to fight for the line, or only has the one speed in it.

On the upside the time was awesome and would have won most stakes level city races. And there was 36k prizemoney for 2nd, which covers a large chunk of annual costs from one race.


My own photo finish shot.

lots of stuff going on my way.... normally I watch that horse........ sorry I missed it..... but wow the photo you put up caught my eye... nothing better!

[JBEX]

I just did. Oh man, she could be special even at the age of 4.
Hooks a real nice game one just inside her. If she can handle running against her with all that experience and her only running twice in two years, she could be tough to deal with down the road.

very nice win..will be interesting to see if she makes it back at a reasonable interval this time

[Optional]

Opti,

If you send it, please send this as well. This is purely respectful trainer to trainer stuff. And he can find my old record in equibase if he would like.
I'll PM you my name if you don't already know it.


All respect to your brother and anyone can second guess after the fact. Lord knows I was about 1000 times. So I hope he knows I respect his ability and am simply talking horseman to horseman like we would on the rail in the morning with my training buddy and comparing notes.
I made sure that the race I tried him long the first time was a perfect setup for him going long enough that the fractions would be easily set by him. 24 and 48 and change was what I was looking for. No stupid speed in the race with no chance to win but might mess it up for me . No early outside pressure was a must have in that 1st attempt.
Try as you might, it still takes some luck to break well, not get pinched or whatever leaving the gate, and get a lead without burning him up. But if he can do that, and he has shown the horse that way in the morning, chances are the lightbulb will go off and the horse will say, "yeah man, I'm into this."
If not, it's just one race and he can revert back to sprints.

Please tell him, all respect to him. And yeah, I scoffed at all the wanna be trainers telling me that stuff as well. I would wonder where they were days after the race and what they were doing at 5 AM when I was at the barn in the winter freezing my ass off . Lol.

Don't fear, you don't sound disrespectful at all. In either post.

And I will pass on both.

[str]

I'm not a horseman but what you say there makes a lot of sense to me. In fact I have said to my brother I thought he needs to be trained to lead and stay ahead, as he looks like he just wants to run with other leaders instead of pass them when coming home.

I've sent one of your posts to my brother before and he liked the way you spoke and the analysis in that one, so will shoot him this one too. I don't think he generally likes to tell the trainer how he thinks they should do their job but I'd be happy to see him think about what you said and maybe push a little more than he does in general.

Horse will have maybe 3 or 4 more races this campaign then a spell until Aussie Spring racing season. Being set for a 5 million+ $ race in November (2nd in that would be just fine for 1.5mil lol)

Have to admit losing a bit faith in him as the big race winner he was expected to be though.

Opti,

If you send it, please send this as well. This is purely respectful trainer to trainer stuff. And he can find my old record in equibase if he would like.
I'll PM you my name if you don't already know it.


All respect to your brother and anyone can second guess after the fact. Lord knows I was about 1000 times. So I hope he knows I respect his ability and am simply talking horseman to horseman like we would on the rail in the morning with my training buddy and comparing notes.
I made sure that the race I tried him long the first time was a perfect setup for him going long enough that the fractions would be easily set by him. 24 and 48 and change was what I was looking for. No stupid speed in the race with no chance to win but might mess it up for me . No early outside pressure was a must have in that 1st attempt.
Try as you might, it still takes some luck to break well, not get pinched or whatever leaving the gate, and get a lead without burning him up. But if he can do that, and he has shown the horse that way in the morning, chances are the lightbulb will go off and the horse will say, "yeah man, I'm into this."
If not, it's just one race and he can revert back to sprints.

Please tell him, all respect to him. And yeah, I scoffed at all the wanna be trainers telling me that stuff as well. I would wonder where they were days after the race and what they were doing at 5 AM when I was at the barn in the winter freezing my ass off . Lol.

[Optional]

I see he has blinkers on. Makes sense too me. I like the smaller cups as well.

The horse that I show in my icon here is a horse that just would not win. He laid back early, could close sometimes, and sometimes not so much , all going 6 or 7 furlongs around one turn. He just had no interest in passing that last horse in order to finish first. We cut his blinkers back, as you can see, to seemingly about what your brothers horse is wearing, and I trained him for about a month before the next race in company most days, and about a length in front of the others. I would have the other two horses in company, one on each side go up and engage him into the far turn, and then fix it to make sure my horse on the lead, picked it up enough to regain that length advantage. Never allowing him to be passed. That seemed to change his mind.

We ran him in a longer race than usual so the fractions would be slower early, which allowed him to break and make the lead. Long story short, he won 8 in a row. All on the lead, and all relaxing early and repelling all challengers. That is him in my icon here.

In his case it made him a warrior after a win or two. He fell in love with it. Your brother is a darn good horseman from all I have seen. I'm sure he knows this stuff, but if he is so inclined, have him try this in the morning and see if the rider feels a difference after a couple of weeks. If so, and if the races written offer that opportunity, maybe he can give it a try.
Just a thought from and old timer to an excellent current conditioner.

Best of luck.

I'm not a horseman but what you say there makes a lot of sense to me. In fact I have said to my brother I thought he needs to be trained to lead and stay ahead, as he looks like he just wants to run with other leaders instead of pass them when coming home.

I've sent one of your posts to my brother before and he liked the way you spoke and the analysis in that one, so will shoot him this one too. I don't think he generally likes to tell the trainer how he thinks they should do their job but I'd be happy to see him think about what you said and maybe push a little more than he does in general.

Horse will have maybe 3 or 4 more races this campaign then a spell until Aussie Spring racing season. Being set for a 5 million+ $ race in November (2nd in that would be just fine for 1.5mil lol)

Have to admit losing a bit faith in him as the big race winner he was expected to be though.

[str]

Thanks for checking out the result.

That was it's 7th 2nd place, which I am sure many owners would take if told their horse would do that for them. But honestly, it was a real disappointment. It jumped and settled exactly where the trainer asked for. Jockey rode it exactly as asked. Maybe a bit wide on the turn and he said the horse did not like the tight turn on the track. But it had every chance to overhaul the winner but just never gave anything extra. I don't think it knows when to fight for the line, or only has the one speed in it.

On the upside the time was awesome and would have won most stakes level city races. And there was 36k prizemoney for 2nd, which covers a large chunk of annual costs from one race.


My own photo finish shot.

I see he has blinkers on. Makes sense too me. I like the smaller cups as well.

The horse that I show in my icon here is a horse that just would not win. He laid back early, could close sometimes, and sometimes not so much , all going 6 or 7 furlongs around one turn. He just had no interest in passing that last horse in order to finish first. We cut his blinkers back, as you can see, to seemingly about what your brothers horse is wearing, and I trained him for about a month before the next race in company most days, and about a length in front of the others. I would have the other two horses in company, one on each side go up and engage him into the far turn, and then fix it to make sure my horse on the lead, picked it up enough to regain that length advantage. Never allowing him to be passed. That seemed to change his mind.

We ran him in a longer race than usual so the fractions would be slower early, which allowed him to break and make the lead. Long story short, he won 8 in a row. All on the lead, and all relaxing early and repelling all challengers. That is him in my icon here.

In his case it made him a warrior after a win or two. He fell in love with it. Your brother is a darn good horseman from all I have seen. I'm sure he knows this stuff, but if he is so inclined, have him try this in the morning and see if the rider feels a difference after a couple of weeks. If so, and if the races written offer that opportunity, maybe he can give it a try.
Just a thought from and old timer to an excellent current conditioner.

Best of luck.

[Optional]

Nothing wrong with 2nd Opti. The horse ran hard I'm sure.

Hope you enjoyed the day.

Thanks for checking out the result.

That was it's 7th 2nd place, which I am sure many owners would take if told their horse would do that for them. But honestly, it was a real disappointment. It jumped and settled exactly where the trainer asked for. Jockey rode it exactly as asked. Maybe a bit wide on the turn and he said the horse did not like the tight turn on the track. But it had every chance to overhaul the winner but just never gave anything extra. I don't think it knows when to fight for the line, or only has the one speed in it.

On the upside the time was awesome and would have won most stakes level city races. And there was 36k prizemoney for 2nd, which covers a large chunk of annual costs from one race.


My own photo finish shot.