Horse Racing questions and answers
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[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Workout Update
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Caldera worked five furlongs this morning at Oaklawn Park outside of stablemate Ripped, covering the distance in a bullet :59.20. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is still mulling over Derby prep options for your son of Liam’s Map, but Louisiana continues to be the front runner as of this moment. We will pass along any updates as soon as a decision has been made.
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I hope you bet Madison. I hope others that read this did as well. That is about as enthusiastic as I can get on a next bet out type of horse without knowing all the circumstances. I'm really glad it won for you, and hopefully others. I do enjoy watching replays and seeing things that point forward to a solid next effort.
All the best sir.
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Thanks Madison for finding the post!Leave a comment:
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OK watched the replay. the comment line was a little misleading as I though she was racing between for a bit. Maybe my error to assume that. Anyway impressive run she made. Agree by watching replay she was a follow next out. The race on 2/13 she went off at 17/1. today was 10/1. THX again.Leave a comment:
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Ok EZ. I was confused at first and watched Corrie's Legacy's last replay. And OMG, did you watch it?? She broke a step slow , was rated back to last in 25 and 50, closed ok but... the rider drops his outside reign at about the 1/8th pole and at the time she is a little flat. Not stopping but not gaining. He drops the outside reign, gathers it back up and she takes off like a rocket and finishes really well the last 1/16th or so.
Watch the outside reign on her start flopping and when the rider gathers her back up, she kicks on and finishes VERY well. Wow. The kind of stuff you love to see for next out plays. That would have been a clue off her last race. Today, just saw that replay, she breaks slow again, for no reason other than she is not focused I guess, but runs up to get a nice position and finishes well. Weird though, she switches back to her left lead at the 1/16th pole and then switches again to the right lead very late. Not sure what to make of that but she ran great today. And, not to say for sure but if we had seen that last effort, she certainly would have been on the watch list for today.
Hope you had her EZ. Great pick if you did.
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yeah 10/1. Posted her in the thread but no $$$ down as I still can't bet Pari mutual in my state. It's been legal for 1 year but not live. NO I did not watch her last race replay.(should have) but will take a look soon. THX for the info on the leads, Very rarely do I catch that. Usually watching the rider's movements. thx.Leave a comment:
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Ok EZ. I was confused at first and watched Corrie's Legacy's last replay. And OMG, did you watch it?? She broke a step slow , was rated back to last in 25 and 50, closed ok but... the rider drops his outside reign at about the 1/8th pole and at the time she is a little flat. Not stopping but not gaining. He drops the outside reign, gathers it back up and she takes off like a rocket and finishes really well the last 1/16th or so.
Watch the outside reign on her start flopping and when the rider gathers her back up, she kicks on and finishes VERY well. Wow. The kind of stuff you love to see for next out plays. That would have been a clue off her last race. Today, just saw that replay, she breaks slow again, for no reason other than she is not focused I guess, but runs up to get a nice position and finishes well. Weird though, she switches back to her left lead at the 1/16th pole and then switches again to the right lead very late. Not sure what to make of that but she ran great today. And, not to say for sure but if we had seen that last effort, she certainly would have been on the watch list for today.
Hope you had her EZ. Great pick if you did.Leave a comment:
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Hey STR looking for your opinion on a horse. It's today Race #1 at FG. The horse in question is the #8 Cora's Legacy. you can access the PP's by Goldencents. I like the fact that the comment part of PP's said rallied between (just missed show) And also like some other things based on pace. If you get a chance to watch the replay you can see she was headed today and fought back and scored. At least that what I see for today. What do you see via PP's and replays? THX in advance.
Watch the outside reign on her start flopping and when the rider gathers her back up, she kicks on and finishes VERY well. Wow. The kind of stuff you love to see for next out plays. That would have been a clue off her last race. Today, just saw that replay, she breaks slow again, for no reason other than she is not focused I guess, but runs up to get a nice position and finishes well. Weird though, she switches back to her left lead at the 1/16th pole and then switches again to the right lead very late. Not sure what to make of that but she ran great today. And, not to say for sure but if we had seen that last effort, she certainly would have been on the watch list for today.
Hope you had her EZ. Great pick if you did.Leave a comment:
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Race 2 Turf paradise:
Come On Mulitch looks really solid in there. He should run very well.
Hunch bet with Gonzaga underneath. My High School's name from 100 years ago. Lol.
Turfway R8
#4 Top looks pretty good as well. The 1 horse beat him 2-3 lengths last time but with that race under the 4 horses belt, the 1 will need to run harder this time to beat him again.
Both these AM's have decent chances to run very well IMO.
last race gameness was impressive ..pace wasn't slow either and only one who ran a dirt route last out..good luck with your exacta str
top
respectable 3rd in debut and certainly could move forward off that..thing I like about turfway park for AM's is being able to run on dirt and grass more likely imo he might like the artificial surface ..realize that's already been proven somewhat with her debut..also you're not getting as many top horses that you'd get at CD and kee so a little class reliefLeave a comment:
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Hey STR looking for your opinion on a horse. It's today Race #1 at FG. The horse in question is the #8 Cora's Legacy. you can access the PP's by Goldencents. I like the fact that the comment part of PP's said rallied between (just missed show) And also like some other things based on pace. If you get a chance to watch the replay you can see she was headed today and fought back and scored. At least that what I see for today. What do you see via PP's and replays? THX in advance.Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 03-06-25, 02:16 PM.Leave a comment:
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Come On Mulitch looks really solid in there. He should run very well.
Hunch bet with Gonzaga underneath. My High School's name from 100 years ago. Lol.
Turfway R8
#4 Top looks pretty good as well. The 1 horse beat him 2-3 lengths last time but with that race under the 4 horses belt, the 1 will need to run harder this time to beat him again.
Both these AM's have decent chances to run very well IMO.Leave a comment:
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All the best sir.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45
first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lotAgree JBEX. The trainer stats usually should take precedent. In a perfect world, this horse breaks a bit tardy today, which goes to the preparation of a firster sometimes, shows hidden run, which I assume he has being by AM, and runs back next time in the same type of race, or lesser, which would be a gift as this does not look like a real tough event. When you watch for things, this is stuff that can really show up.
Am I surprised if he runs well today? No, they all seem to. But if what I mentioned happens, he could be a real decent play next out. Trainers win %'s probably increase a bit as a 2nd time starter, then 3rd. A horse to watch closely today IMO.
Thanks for the heads up. This one is worth following I think.
couple of more by AM today
turf paradise R2 @ 3:24
#2 come on mulitch (2-1)
turfway R8 @ 9:25
#4 top (8-1)
.Leave a comment:
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Turfway R5 #12 8-1 Askari. OFF 517. Just came out of my stable. I had him flagged as "can't wait for next". Needless to say he owes me money.
Ran his first 3 in the Pletcher barn. First 2 on the turf at MON, then an off the turf at SAR. Slow, but looks like he can run forever. Shows up today GELDED since last and new barn Christopher Davis??
Anyone has a moment to look would appreciate a comment.
Best,obviously a serious setback to be off that long and a mid level track makes sense to ease the level of competition .. trainer has solid numbers
you know he can run fresh
broke his maiden on the turf and tapit's primarily a dirt site (one of the premier ones) would lead me to believe he might take to the tapeta surface there
still owned by the breeders and he's not up for sale so connections feel he still has some ability..
side note: there's a by liam's map
#6 liam the brave (20-1) who doesn't look bad at that priceA couple of notes here. The gelding makes perfect sense. That now 5 year old would have gained so much weight as a colt/horse as a 4 and 5 yr. old, that it would have put his injury, whatever it was in harms way big time. Smart move IMO.
Owner retains the horse so they did and still do feel there is some potential there. The trainer had decent numbers and if he is known to Todd and the owners, that is good enough for me. Was he worth a small play? yeah, probably. Is he worth continuing to follow? Absolutely ! He will most likely win within his next two starts.
Hang on to him in the stable Madison and let's follow him for the next two races.Madison, please do keep this horse in your stable and let us know when he runs back. I just saw the replay and that effort was actually full of promise with what went on that was difficult to see.
If you watch it again, watch for these things:
1. The horse was unprepared for the start as was the rider. The starter gave them no time to get set. That was not cool at all. I do understand with a 12 horse field but that was ridiculous.
2. The rider lost his inside iron when it hit the gate coming out. Took him a few strides to get it back. That, just like with Deterministic last year prompted the horse to react by running off into and around the first turn and early down the backside into a blistering early pace. A total waste of energy.
He was 6 wide all the way around the 1st turn and I am being generous.
Finally settles some, but not enough to be pleased with, half way down then backside and still has enough to try and finish. By now the race is starting to go really slow. The last 1/4 mile in 27 and change shows that. So the making up of ground which ended when this horse became out of gas about the 1/4 pole was totally acceptable IMO for his 1st race back and what had happened up to that point.
He also never switched leads through the lane which showed you that he was so concerned with tired that he forgot. The horse had no concentration whatsoever that last 1/4 mile. Yet, when galloping out, he does not stop early, he actually gallops out very decently.
IMO,. this race is a hidden gem. This is the kind of race I stuck around for the last race for all those years ago. If I picked this race apart horse by horse, there might be 3-4 horses in here that would be very eligible to be claimed due to the fast early time, the slow late time, and all the incidentals that occurred. I lived for these types of races back then.
PLEASE keep us posted on this horse !
If you are the type of handicapper that watches every race everyday at a track and bets selectively, this race is a dream come true.
The chart comment was: "Askari never menaced throughout."
It should have said, "was always menaced by something throughout".
They even threw the odds up on the upper left corner of the screen and blocked most from seeing this guy through the late stretch. Lol.
Watching, and possibly betting this horse in his next two starts is a must IMO.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45
first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lot
Am I surprised if he runs well today? No, they all seem to. But if what I mentioned happens, he could be a real decent play next out. Trainers win %'s probably increase a bit as a 2nd time starter, then 3rd. A horse to watch closely today IMO.
Thanks for the heads up. This one is worth following I think.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45
first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lotLeave a comment:
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[QUOTE=batt33;31405919]
Black Tie Optional is the goof ball with a great personality. He makes me laugh. And THAT, is the kind of stuff you wish you could see in the mornings training. I'm laughing inside just thinking about it.Leave a comment:
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Three times in the last seven years, as the field turned into the stretch of the Kentucky Derby, trainer Chad Brown thought his horses could win the race. It wasn't to be. Saturday, Brown will find out more about his chances for this year when he runs Chancer McPatrick in the Tampa Bay Derby. Brown also has Hill Road, third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in the race.
chancer mcpatrick running in saturday's tampa bay derby..says in the article he had a tiny flake surgically removed from a front ankle after the bc juvenile .. said he also had a quarter crack on a hind foot..str do you think with the latter they mean it was something that happened during the race ?
.Leave a comment:
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And Fyi "straight no chaser" looks no worse for the wear...... looks like the boss.... uhm because he is the bosshttps://x.com/AdolphsonRacing/status/1897131842060407020?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw% 7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1897131 842060407020%7Ctwgr%5E513b79b55dffa4b930 a291df29833cfb019937b4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref _url=https%3A%2F%2Fmyracehorse.com%2Fapp %2FhomeLeave a comment:
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[QUOTE=batt33;31405916]looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks ![/QUOTE
okay in my stable alerts I had "STR likes" for the life of me can't find the post that you mentioned it.Leave a comment:
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It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.Leave a comment:
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Yeah, I agree.
They call them whatever BRED, but it is really where they land when they are born, not conceived.
I wonder if anyone ever said the mare had the foal in the van while going to a certain state, they pulled over just before birth and happened to be right on the state line between NJ and N.Y.
That way they might be both. Lolol. Have to think some racetracker tried it.Leave a comment:
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From a betting perspective, if you did not play these state breds that are kind of trapped in this situation, I have to think the ROI with most of the others is decent. And because it seems that as many are 8, to 10-1 or higher, it would be interesting to see a win/place ROI on selective plays. I'm not much of a place, show bettor but that is up to the individual. And it seems we see quite a few that run 2nd at 30-1 or whatever. That might work. Certainly playing those that fit races well would seem to fit as well in that, it does not seem that then public is aware of this situation. IDK. Maybe they are but with a 10.00 win mutual on the Linda Rice 2nd time starter who won from the 1 post first out at Aqueduct the other day, that one was certainly overlooked. I was really surprised at that price.Leave a comment:
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guess when they use a ky sire like AM (in ohio) they want to give the horse every chance to be good enough to run in statebred stakes races especially for a young 3yo ..much more lucrative if successful..if it doesn't work out there's the low tag claiming races and if they do well at that level good chance they'll lose the horse to a claim anyway .. in general (everywhere) i think with army mule's running in sb programs (except ny) giving it more than avg chances to be good makes some sense..huge difference in earnings potential over the course of their career
I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway
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They call them whatever BRED, but it is really where they land when they are born, not conceived.
I wonder if anyone ever said the mare had the foal in the van while going to a certain state, they pulled over just before birth and happened to be right on the state line between NJ and N.Y.
That way they might be both. Lolol. Have to think some racetracker tried it.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06
full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)
.Leave a comment:
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It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.
I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway
.Leave a comment:
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It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06
full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)
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Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.Leave a comment:
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by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06
full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)
.Leave a comment:
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have to think if an ohio bred with a ky sire has a good career would be an attractive broodmare prospect ..long ways away from that if it happensLeave a comment:
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If ,you watch the replay, only look at the different hand placements of the riders near the lead. The 1 horse had slacked reigns and the hands were at least /1/2 - 3/4's way up the neck all the way around the track. Look at the other two riders near the lead. Their hands are much further down the neck towards their crotch. Their reigns were tighter and their horses awaiting instructions from the bit. What that is, is the 1 horse is being asked early and entirely while both outside horses are being reserved down the backside. At no point did the reigns of the 1 horse (Army Mule) get tightened and jocks hands slid back so as to try and relax, rate, or even give the horse a comfortable breather. Honestly, in my judgement, it was ridiculous.
Now I understand that if he had not pressed the issue with the 1 horse all the way, she most likely would have been headed or even passed by a 1/2 a length . So What! If the trainers orders were to do that, that rider was simply riding to instructions. If so, that is ALL on the trainer.
From purely an effort point of view I give the 1 horse an A+. I give whoever decided that that was the best way to try and win and teach the horse anything, I give an F. Riding her like that is detrimental to the horses best chance to be all she can be not only in that race, but long term as well. For me, it is hard to watch.
She ran as hard as she could. The two outside horses were fitter and better yesterday than she was, she ran out of air as they were turning for home, and she gallantly and gamely continued to fight all the way to the wire while out of breath.
Can she rate? Sure as long as they don't fry her brain before it is too late.
Being honest and I do hate to judge, I really do, but damn man, just give her a chance.
This horse is really cool. I admire her so much.
That is what I see.
even to me it made sense to try and use different tactics and not sure why it wouldn't to the connections ..at this point if they don't attempt to in her next start
would be a real head-scratcherLeave a comment:
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think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter poleno problem str..sounds right what you are saying but definitely have a look when you can..no rush
I looked at the condition books and they have multiple levels of maiden claiming races if they need to go that path .. besides the in-betweens and succesfull ones interesting to follow some of them trying to find some success at the bottom levelsBlinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?
the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)
Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.
so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.appreciate the feedback batt..will be interesting to see if she can change tactics otherwise probably will be dropping into maiden claimers
understand not every army mule
going to be a runner which I'll define as suceeding at some level of the game ..we'll see with this one
Now I understand that if he had not pressed the issue with the 1 horse all the way, she most likely would have been headed or even passed by a 1/2 a length . So What! If the trainers orders were to do that, that rider was simply riding to instructions. If so, that is ALL on the trainer.
From purely an effort point of view I give the 1 horse an A+. I give whoever decided that that was the best way to try and win and teach the horse anything, I give an F. Riding her like that is detrimental to the horses best chance to be all she can be not only in that race, but long term as well. For me, it is hard to watch.
She ran as hard as she could. The two outside horses were fitter and better yesterday than she was, she ran out of air as they were turning for home, and she gallantly and gamely continued to fight all the way to the wire while out of breath.
Can she rate? Sure as long as they don't fry her brain before it is too late.
Being honest and I do hate to judge, I really do, but damn man, just give her a chance.
This horse is really cool. I admire her so much.
That is what I see.Leave a comment:
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