UFC on FX 8: Mighty Mouse vs Moraga (7-27-13)

[On2TheNext1]

Watched about every JA fight on youtube. I'm underwhelmed.

Her stand up is atrocious, she just puts her head down and swings. I didn't see many exchanges she won. Doesn't help she's short/has no reach, stubby legs that imo diminish her ability to catch certain submissions, and is kinda small for the division. All her weight is in her ass/thighs, she should be a weight class (or two) lower. She gets physically bullied, especially in the clinch. She has good balance and good hips, technical grappler, can sweep, but wasn't effective against anyone with experience.

Her competition is suspect.

Of her 2012 fights (where she went 5-2), four of her wins were against fighters making their pro debuts. Of those four, two of them haven't fought since (Juliana and Vanessa Silva 0-1/0-1) and the other two, Correia and Yankovich are 1-1, 1-2 respectively. Her fifth win of 2012 - Alessandra Silva is 2-12 and lost her last 7 straight (at the time JA faced her she was in the midst of a 4 fight losing streak).

Looked terrible in her loss against Kinberly Novaes, but that was JA's third pro fight/first of '12. Her last fight of '12, loss against Maia she was exploited on the feet and at best (being generous) was a draw on the ground, but Maia did more in advantageous positions whereas JA just swept and didn't advance or do much/any damage.

I just don't see the love for JA.

[sideloaded]

Watched about every JA fight on youtube. I'm underwhelmed.

Her stand up is atrocious, she just puts her head down and swings. I didn't see many exchanges she won. Doesn't help she's short/has no reach, stubby legs that imo diminish her ability to catch certain submissions, and is kinda small for the division. All her weight is in her ass/thighs, she should be a weight class (or two) lower. She gets physically bullied, especially in the clinch. She has good balance and good hips, technical grappler, can sweep, but wasn't effective against anyone with experience.

Her competition is suspect.

Of her 2012 fights (where she went 5-2), four of her wins were against fighters making their pro debuts. Of those four, two of them haven't fought since (Juliana and Vanessa Silva 0-1/0-1) and the other two, Correia and Yankovich are 1-1, 1-2 respectively. Her fifth win of 2012 - Alessandra Silva is 2-12 and lost her last 7 straight (at the time JA faced her she was in the midst of a 4 fight losing streak).

Looked terrible in her loss against Kinberly Novaes, but that was JA's third pro fight/first of '12. Her last fight of '12, loss against Maia she was exploited on the feet and at best (being generous) was a draw on the ground, but Maia did more in advantageous positions whereas JA just swept and didn't advance or do much/any damage.

I just don't see the love for JA.

I dunno what ghost you are, but she isnt fighting Anderson Silva here or Fedor. Andrade wins a decision,

[sideloaded]

And no Im not going to do a big ass write up. I really dont want to help most people here or fix their horrible wmma capping skills.

Just go ask the dumb asses who faded me on Leslie Smith vs Pennington when I told them Smith was going to run over her. Or The jackasses talking to me about Mizuki beating up korean cans in JEWELS and she was going to get rag dolled by Bec Hyatt. Sadly those posters never showed their faces again.

All you Sherdog cappers go look at Mizuki's last two opponents before Bec and try to cap based on that. They are like 0-2 white belts from Korea.


Over on MMA tracker I won a massive amount of GB's betting Celine Haga vs Naho Sugiyama. Sugirock had one loss to penne and was the champion going into that fight.

Celine Haga will be money in the bank for all you sherdog cappers because she is a top 3 atomweight with a 5-11 record who was 1-11.


I've already gave up too much info.

[MD]

And no Im not going to do a big ass write up. I really dont want to help most people here or fix their horrible wmma capping skills.

Just got ask the dumb asses who faded me on Leslie Smith vs Pennington when I told them Smith was going to run over her. Or The jackasses talking to me about Mizuki beating up korean cans in JEWELS and she was going to get rag dolled by Bec Hyatt. Sadly those posters never showed their faces again.

It's not like he's questioning your 'capping skills or anything. It can only be good for you, me, and the forum when someone shows up with good grammar, who has watched tape, and gives their opinion on a fight. At worst, we completely disagree and ignore them.

tl;dr Don't scare away the newbies bro.

[sideloaded]

It's not like he's questioning your 'capping skills or anything. It can only be good for you, me, and the forum when someone shows up with good grammar, who has watched tape, and gives their opinion on a fight. At worst, we completely disagree and ignore them.

tl;dr Don't scare away the newbies bro.

It's only good for me if he's betting the other side and improving the line. Which in this case he is doing. Giving out piss poor logic. I hate most of SBR so go ahead. Dump all you want on Carmouche.

Good grammar means f-ck all when it comes to properly analyzing skills. I've already helped him out a bunch and others by accurately pointing out his massive holes in handicapping. I help anymore im just hurting myself by making the market smarter. I need to stay off this board.

[Beelzebubzy]

It's only good for me if he's betting the other side and improving the line. Which in this case he is doing. Giving out piss poor logic. I hate most of SBR so go ahead. Dump all you want on Carmouche.

Good grammar means f-ck all when it comes to properly analyzing skills. I've already helped him out a bunch and others by accurately pointing out his massive holes in handicapping. I help anymore im just hurting myself by making the market smarter. I need to stay off this board.

love sider. There will always be dumbasses in the sea including muah. I am on JA by the logic that Carmouche is getting love from the Rousey hype.

[Thor4140]

It's only good for me if he's betting the other side and improving the line. Which in this case he is doing. Giving out piss poor logic. I hate most of SBR so go ahead. Dump all you want on Carmouche.

Good grammar means f-ck all when it comes to properly analyzing skills. I've already helped him out a bunch and others by accurately pointing out his massive holes in handicapping. I help anymore im just hurting myself by making the market smarter. I need to stay off this board.

u know how many times i have said this to myself? I have had systems i won't even discuss in one of these joints (post sites)because they are money. I have seen some of my theories win for years and then someone picks it up on their own and throws it on one of these boards and the followers come as soon as they see all the winners coming. These theories have about another two years before they are useless. If u have a good solid system keep it to urself. Like u said Slider u are only hurting yourself. You are a thinker Slider. About one in 100 thinkers gamble.

[sideloaded]

5:52 is a stand exchange she won. I could go on but feel like im being trolled. Andrade is 2 inches shorter than Carmouche. At 135 in the womens division that means nothing.

[NunyaBidness]

I have had systems i won't even discuss in one of these joints (post sites)because they are money.

Lol, systems.

[NunyaBidness]

About one in 100 thinkers gamble.

What does this even mean? Please show your evidence.

If this is the statistical analysis you do, I somehow doubt your 'systems are money'.

[Beelzebubzy]

What does this even mean? Please show your evidence.

If this is the statistical analysis you do, I somehow doubt your 'systems are money'.

I think he means one in 100 gamblers think instead of one in 100 thinkers gamble

[Noleafclover]

Hey On2TheNext1. I don't really like either side of this fight, but just some food for thought.

Watched about every JA fight on youtube. I'm underwhelmed.

Her stand up is atrocious, she just puts her head down and swings. I didn't see many exchanges she won. Doesn't help she's short/has no reach, stubby legs that imo diminish her ability to catch certain submissions, and is kinda small for the division.

I can't find reach info on her anywhere, you sure she doesn't have T-Rex arms?

Her standup advantage to me is that she can take a hit better than most girls, so she can overwhelm opponents in a brawl. I'd say she's naturally athletic with decent power, but yeah she seems to be technically lacking to me. Seems very raw. I do think if it's a standup battle she wins against Carmouche though.

Her competition is suspect.

Of her 2012 fights (where she went 5-2)

Why limit it to 2012? Milana Dudieva certainly isn't suspect.

All her weight is in her ass/thighs, she should be a weight class (or two) lower. She gets physically bullied, especially in the clinch. ... Her last fight of '12, loss against Maia she was exploited on the feet

Yep, that's my big worry. Carmouche's main strategy is to wear opponents down in the clinch game, too. Whether she can do it as well as Maia is a reasonable question, but whether she'll need to do it that well is also worth mentioning. Maia looked really dominant over Andrade there.

[Das Jax]

5:52 is a stand exchange she won. I could go on but feel like im being trolled. Andrade is 2 inches shorter than Carmouche. At 135 in the womens division that means nothing.

Hah, you're not being trolled man. But I think you are taking offense to something that wasn't meant as a personal attack. MD has the right of it, even if they're wrong (which in this case, he is) I'm definitely in support of lurkers coming out of the woodwork to present well-stated critiques of seemingly popular plays. Given some of the typical nonsense that gets babbled around here, it's definitely something we could use more of and, for the reasons MD stated, would all be better for it.

To the point though, since you first turned me on to the play, I've been digging into it quite a bit myself and would be more than happy to address some of the things he brought up. I'm in the middle of some things at the moment, but I should be able to get to it shortly.

[sideloaded]

Hah, you're not being trolled man. But I think you are taking offense to something that wasn't meant as a personal attack. MD has the right of it, even if they're wrong (which in this case, he is) I'm definitely in support of lurkers coming out of the woodwork to present well-stated critiques of seemingly popular plays. Given some of the typical nonsense that gets babbled around here, it's definitely something we could use more of and, for the reasons MD stated, would all be better for it.

To the point though, since you first turned me on to the play, I've been digging into it quite a bit myself and would be more than happy to address some of the things he brought up. I'm in the middle of some things at the moment, but I should be able to get to it shortly.

lol wut? Im not mad at all. It's just my posting style.


But all you guys who wanna break this fight down now should have done it june 1st and definitely before the line came out.

You're all wrong about the lurking shit also. This a public forum that has been actively scoured for years by the other side of the counter. With \ proof. Posting good information here is costing yourself money.

I Could've shut up about Mizuki and got her +300 or higher. Sitting around singing songs together is improving the market against you. The less information available the better. Honestly you guys are talking like bookmakers not bettors. They are the enemy. They dont want to help you in the slightest.


And how is this a popular pick now? No one was talking about this fight at all. The line has been out for a while. Until that asshat put it in his tardlay and I told him about it. Now this shit is trendy?

[Thor4140]

What does this even mean? Please show your evidence.

If this is the statistical analysis you do, I somehow doubt your 'systems are money'.

man u are the board rat. U would be the last person i would ever tell anything

[Thor4140]

I think he means one in 100 gamblers think instead of one in 100 thinkers gamble

That just shows ya what Slider say's is true about grammar and gambling. It means dik.

[Beelzebubzy]

That just shows ya what Slider say's is true about grammar and gambling. It means dik.

Says.
Sider.
Rooster.

[Thor4140]

Lol, systems.

Let me tell ya what i mean about systems. Home dog on Monday night NFL. Now a guy like me picks this up i milk it. When u brainless twats pick it up i know the party is over. Since i know Sider is a thinker im gonna give him one of my theories. Sider remind me in September to PM you. I will give ya one of my favorite systems.

[NunyaBidness]

Let me tell ya what i mean about systems. Home dog on Monday night NFL. Now a guy like me picks this up i milk it. When u brainless twats pick it up i know the party is over. Since i know Sider is a thinker im gonna give him one of my theories. Sider remind me in September to PM you. I will give ya one of my favorite systems.

No time to rehash this dumb argument. I'll just leave you with this:

[MD]

Let me tell ya what i mean about systems. Home dog on Monday night NFL. Now a guy like me picks this up i milk it. When u brainless twats pick it up i know the party is over. Since i know Sider is a thinker im gonna give him one of my theories. Sider remind me in September to PM you. I will give ya one of my favorite systems.

I have a system. It's called "Betting On Mispriced Lines". I'll prop bet you that my system out-performs yours.

[NunyaBidness]

I have a system. It's called "Betting On Mispriced Lines". I'll prop bet you that my system out-performs yours.

Yeah right, dude. Did you know that NFL games where a home dog is named after an animal covers the spread 62% of the time? But only on Mondays.

[NunyaBidness]

Or my favorite one that always throws these guys for a loop, "Never bet the spread because 75% of the time it doesn't matter, they win straight up anyway."

[On2TheNext1]

And no Im not going to do a big ass write up. I really dont want to help most people here or fix their horrible wmma capping skills.

Just go ask the dumb asses who faded me on Leslie Smith vs Pennington when I told them Smith was going to run over her. Or The jackasses talking to me about Mizuki beating up korean cans in JEWELS and she was going to get rag dolled by Bec Hyatt. Sadly those posters never showed their faces again.

All you Sherdog cappers go look at Mizuki's last two opponents before Bec and try to cap based on that. They are like 0-2 white belts from Korea.


Over on MMA tracker I won a massive amount of GB's betting Celine Haga vs Naho Sugiyama. Sugirock had one loss to penne and was the champion going into that fight.

Celine Haga will be money in the bank for all you sherdog cappers because she is a top 3 atomweight with a 5-11 record who was 1-11.


I've already gave up too much info.

Bro, I'm tailing you. I've got plays on JA +3.5pts, by decision prop, ML.

Consider it "thinking out loud" in an effort to improve my WMMA capping skills. The socratic method if you will. I'm trying to figure out what you see that I am not. You make some valid points about records not being the end all be all, but I'm not understanding where the confidence comes from?

Essentially your argument for JA amounts to ad hominem attacks/personal insults. Okay, I'm a dumb Sherdog mouth breathing button masher and you were right about other fights involving other fighters. Cool. Now, does that make JA more or less likely to win? Please, before you take your ball and go home, show me how to dribble.

It's only good for me if he's betting the other side and improving the line. Which in this case he is doing. Giving out piss poor logic. I hate most of SBR so go ahead. Dump all you want on Carmouche.

Good grammar means f-ck all when it comes to properly analyzing skills. I've already helped him out a bunch and others by accurately pointing out his massive holes in handicapping. I help anymore im just hurting myself by making the market smarter. I need to stay off this board.

No, I'm not betting Carmouche and that crazy juice, though I'm hedging a bit with fight goes the distance and o2.5rds.

Piss poor logic and my massive holes in handicapping? Do we know each other?

love sider. There will always be dumbasses in the sea including muah. I am on JA by the logic that Carmouche is getting love from the Rousey hype.

Maybe it's somewhat deserved? I don't think -600 is accurate, but she held her own against a superior athlete who had a size advantage, got the better of the stand up exchanges vs Rousey imho. I had her winning the Coenen fight until she dove into that triangle. She did look terrible against Kaufman, but Kaufman's got impressive stand up and also had a distinct size advantage. Plus those are all legit fighters imo, experience advantage Carmouche.

5:52 is a stand exchange she won. I could go on but feel like im being trolled. Andrade is 2 inches shorter than Carmouche. At 135 in the womens division that means nothing.

Yeah, I saw that, that exchange starts at 5:40... does anyone think she was "winning" that exchange or just landed a lucky punch? I'll go with the vocal majority.

Hey On2TheNext1. I don't really like either side of this fight, but just some food for thought.


I can't find reach info on her anywhere, you sure she doesn't have T-Rex arms?

Her standup advantage to me is that she can take a hit better than most girls, so she can overwhelm opponents in a brawl. I'd say she's naturally athletic with decent power, but yeah she seems to be technically lacking to me. Seems very raw. I do think if it's a standup battle she wins against Carmouche though.




Why limit it to 2012? Milana Dudieva certainly isn't suspect.



Yep, that's my big worry. Carmouche's main strategy is to wear opponents down in the clinch game, too. Whether she can do it as well as Maia is a reasonable question, but whether she'll need to do it that well is also worth mentioning. Maia looked really dominant over Andrade there.

-Yeah, just eyeballing it seems she's short on a lot of her punches/in exchanges. Could be bc she's not looking at what she's swinging at half the time or a short reach.
-She can take a hit, but I'm not concerned with a KO/TKO. I think Carmouche is much more polished. Throws tighter combinations, superior footwork. I think it sets up to be a lot like the Maia/JA fight. My concern being Carmouche will take rounds by winning the stand up exchanges and stalling her against the cage the rest of the time as you mentioned.
-Passos Pereira was 3-3 (she outgrappled a grappler), Dudieva (linked above) was her marquee win/best performance. Her top game, g&p was much more effective, and she subbed her, but it wasn't a confidence inspiring performance to me. Good enough that I think there's probably value at +850 JA by dec. But definitely not as confident as sideloaded.

[The iron sheik]

Ah yes. Being a really old person and an avid betting historian, I do remember the gold mine that was monday night home NFL bonanza, until thor sacrificed this calf. Those were the days, lads. For sure profit, I had to go back playing roulette with martingale. I hope they don't find that out.

[The iron sheik]

To be honest, I haven't given much thought to the fight being discussed, but it's kind of sad that you have to periodically remind yourself that Lez Carmouche was in the first UFC wimminz titlefight. Yes, it really happened and it wasn't a strange dream where odd things happen.

[sideloaded]

Bro, I'm tailing you. I've got plays on JA +3.5pts, by decision prop, ML.

Consider it "thinking out loud" in an effort to improve my WMMA capping skills. The socratic method if you will. I'm trying to figure out what you see that I am not. You make some valid points about records not being the end all be all, but I'm not understanding where the confidence comes from?

Essentially your argument for JA amounts to ad hominem attacks/personal insults. Okay, I'm a dumb Sherdog mouth breathing button masher and you were right about other fights involving other fighters. Cool. Now, does that make JA more or less likely to win? Please, before you take your ball and go home, show me how to dribble.




No, I'm not betting Carmouche and that crazy juice, though I'm hedging a bit with fight goes the distance and o2.5rds.

Piss poor logic and my massive holes in handicapping? Do we know each other?



Maybe it's somewhat deserved? I don't think -600 is accurate, but she held her own against a superior athlete who had a size advantage, got the better of the stand up exchanges vs Rousey imho. I had her winning the Coenen fight until she dove into that triangle. She did look terrible against Kaufman, but Kaufman's got impressive stand up and also had a distinct size advantage. Plus those are all legit fighters imo, experience advantage Carmouche.



Yeah, I saw that, that exchange starts at 5:40... does anyone think she was "winning" that exchange or just landed a lucky punch? I'll go with the vocal majority.



-Yeah, just eyeballing it seems she's short on a lot of her punches/in exchanges. Could be bc she's not looking at what she's swinging at half the time or a short reach.
-She can take a hit, but I'm not concerned with a KO/TKO. I think Carmouche is much more polished. Throws tighter combinations, superior footwork. I think it sets up to be a lot like the Maia/JA fight. My concern being Carmouche will take rounds by winning the stand up exchanges and stalling her against the cage the rest of the time as you mentioned.
-Passos Pereira was 3-3 (she outgrappled a grappler), Dudieva (linked above) was her marquee win/best performance. Her top game, g&p was much more effective, and she subbed her, but it wasn't a confidence inspiring performance to me. Good enough that I think there's probably value at +850 JA by dec. But definitely not as confident as sideloaded.

Link to me insulting you? The sherdog reference is your hard on for opponents records. Celine Haga is all you need to know. I've given enough info to disprove your capping. All the other stuff I dont care enough to respond to. LoL at Carmouche winning the stand up against rousey. I'v said since 2011 on THIS board rousey is one of the worst MMA fighters out there. Great judo yes. She has nothing else. Actually I've broken down Rousey's striking on here before. It was lolworthy. But I dont care enough to type paragraphs back and forth.

That is not my argument for andrade. Since i've never posted a break down for that fight. Plus im not even on andrade straight up big at all. Dunno why you're coming at me like Im singing for everyone to max bet her straight up. This is what I posted. http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...l#post19164190 and guys just keep asking me about her. At +450 I said it was a good bet. Even if she gets stopped in 10 seconds.

you and Noleaf just came out of no where trying to shit on my assessment of the fight like I was recommending some huge juiced favorite. This wmma shit is easy. Take the underdog most of the time. Check my thread. It is what I do.

[On2TheNext1]

Link to me insulting you? The sherdog reference is your hard on for opponents records. Celine Haga is all you need to know. I've given enough info to disprove your capping. All the other stuff I dont care enough to respond to. LoL at Carmouche winning the stand up against rousey. I'v said since 2011 on THIS board rousey is one of the worst MMA fighters out there. Great judo yes. She has nothing else. Actually I've broken down Rousey's striking on here before. It was lolworthy. But I dont care enough to type paragraphs back and forth.

-Attempting to gauge the quality of her competition, dig deeper into her W/L's, is hardly having a hard on. That's like buying stock without doing any due diligence.
-Celine Haga. Okay. Got it. Records aren't the end all be all. Some fighters turn the corner, put it together. Are you saying this is the case for Andrade?
-I wasn't implying Rousey had great stand up, but compared to Andrade -- I think it's at least as good (better actually).

[sideloaded]

-Attempting to gauge the quality of her competition, dig deeper into her W/L's, is hardly having a hard on. That's like buying stock without doing any due diligence.
-Celine Haga. Okay. Got it. Records aren't the end all be all. Some fighters turn the corner, put it together. Are you saying this is the case for Andrade?
-I wasn't implying Rousey had great stand up, but compared to Andrade -- I think it's at least as good (better actually).

YEah bro, all those times Rousey dropped her opponents with strikes just like Andrade (she has done it more than once, rare in wmma). I would help you but you are laking basic knowledge on almost everything about this fight.


Remember Rousey's defense in the Tate fight? Awesome head movement! Remember all those strikes Rousey landed against Kaufman? Awesome! For sure Rousey is the better striker man.

[sideloaded]

[gabe]

there's another great prop on this fight you haven't touched on, sider.

not carmouche itd

[Hannibal]

you guys see anything in meza over albert??
albert is nothing special, and tends to drop off after a strong start

does meza really deserve to be +200 here? I know he got starched by mendes, but not many people wouldnt. If i recall, he looked quick and had some crisps combos in the early moments of the mendes fight. Thats almost enough to make me back him at this price against albert.

[MD]

there's another great prop on this fight you haven't touched on, sider.

not carmouche itd

That was one of the first things he recommended for this card, if I remember correctly. I like it, too, it's a good line. I recommended Not Carmouche TKO at uh... -160 I think, and Andrade +3.5 at +240.

[NunyaBidness]

That was one of the first things he recommended for this card, if I remember correctly. I like it, too, it's a good line. I recommended Not Carmouche TKO at uh... -160 I think, and Andrade +3.5 at +240.

Ok, I recommend every play that moved at least 64 cents. I recommend you play all of those at the original price that is no longer available.

[Das Jax]

you guys see anything in meza over albert??
albert is nothing special, and tends to drop off after a strong start

does meza really deserve to be +200 here? I know he got starched by mendes, but not many people wouldnt. If i recall, he looked quick and had some crisps combos in the early moments of the mendes fight. Thats almost enough to make me back him at this price against albert.

I've got a small play on him. I don't think he's particularly impressive, but he has good instincts, a decent chin, and at +200 I think there's a lot of value on him against a fighter as predictable as Albert.

Honestly, I think there are several live dogs on this card. Besides Meza, I consider Means, Riley, and Edwards to all be more than viable candidates for a W come Saturday.

[MD]

Ok, I recommend every play that moved at least 64 cents. I recommend you play all of those at the original price that is no longer available.

You're right actually, the Andrade one I simply said was the best bet for that fight at +240, which hadn't been available for a while. "Recommended" is the wrong word either way. #alliseeisvalue