system integrity 2012

**Teamprofit101** · 05-22-12, 10:39 PM

JM Disciple, if you have a good bank roll, playing the money line over the runline is better and a risk worth taking.

**Nflmikes** · 05-23-12, 12:11 AM

...

**slapshot** · 05-23-12, 07:13 AM

20-15-13 -8.67
wins-losses-pushes

wednesday
st louis......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
new york yankees......-1 to win 5 units**push**

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-23-12, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by Teamprofit101

JM Disciple, if you have a good bank roll, playing the money line over the runline is better and a risk worth taking.

I thought about this, but with 6 seasons of back test at a push rate of 16% I do not know if the extra 20-40 juice is worth the win. I want to back test it first.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-23-12, 09:08 PM

Looks like a Win in the 5th..... like to see a blow out so theres no sweat.

**slapshot** · 05-24-12, 06:08 AM

21-15-13 -3.67
wins-losses-pushes

thursday
miami......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
st louis......-1 to win 5 units**win**

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-24-12, 03:24 PM

Do you go back to chasing for 1 unit if Miami wins today since the system will be back in the black or do you try and continue with the 5 units until you reached the peak where the system was at during the beginning?

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-24-12, 05:09 PM

in 2006 looks like this system had its worse Run ever. For labby players from June 9th until june 28th to clear 1 single line. The year itself ended up clearing 32 lines with a few units still in play after a string of losses at the very end, but non the less still aprox 60 units in profit for labby players.

0 = loss
1 = win
p = push

0 5 5 5 5
0 5 5 5 5 15
0 5 5 5 5 15 20
p 5 5 5 5 15 20 38
1 5 5 5 5 15 20 38
0 5 5 5 15 20
p 5 5 5 15 20 38
0 5 5 5 15 20 38
0 5 5 5 15 20 38 65
0 5 5 5 15 20 38 65 105
0 5 5 5 15 20 38 65 105 165
1 5 5 5 15 20 38 65 105 165 255

($390 to win $260) (39units to win 26units) ($678 in play)

0 5 5 15 20 38 65 105 165
1 5 5 15 20 38 65 105 165 255
1 5 15 20 38 65 105 165
1 15 20 38 65 105
0 20 38 65
p 20 38 65 128
1 20 38 65 128
1 38 65

This is how the labby would look given the traditional method based on -150 odds. As you can see ($390 to win $260) (39units to win 26units) ($678 in play)
would be over 106 units if you count your last bet adding the (risk). This is why i suggested not going more then 2% and keeping a stagnant unit size through out the season to assure a profit. There was only 3 pushes during this bad stretch so taking the ML would of only made matters a little worse.

Special thanks to slapshot for his 2006 back test.

**Nino7** · 05-25-12, 06:14 AM

thx JMD

**slapshot** · 05-25-12, 07:43 AM

21-16-13 -8.67
wins-losses-pushes

friday
los angeles dodgers......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
miami......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

**slapshot** · 05-25-12, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Do you go back to chasing for 1 unit if Miami wins today since the system will be back in the black or do you try and continue with the 5 units until you reached the peak where the system was at during the beginning?

once in black i'll play to win 2 units

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-25-12, 10:18 PM

Off to a bad start............

**ChiLLx** · 05-26-12, 12:56 AM

Just when you thought we had a good streak going...

**slapshot** · 05-26-12, 08:14 AM

mediocre pitching and ice cold offense last night put us back in a deep hole.

saturday is a bit tricky....texas opened at -173 at pinnacle according to covers......covers only list the line of the home team and oakland opened at +159 vs yankees....that home line corresponds to -169 on yankees. that makes texas our play of the day.

21-17-13 -16.52
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
texas......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
los angeles dodgers......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

**merikson** · 05-26-12, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by slapshot

mediocre pitching and ice cold offense last night put us back in a deep hole.

saturday is a bit tricky....texas opened at -173 at pinnacle according to covers......covers only list the line of the home team and oakland opened at +159 vs yankees....that home line corresponds to -169 on yankees. that makes texas our play of the day.

21-17-13 -16.52
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
texas......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
los angeles dodgers......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

SBR Live Odds shows that the Pinnacle opening line was -164 for TEX and -165 for NYY.

**slapshot** · 05-26-12, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by merikson

SBR Live Odds shows that the Pinnacle opening line was -164 for TEX and -165 for NYY.

yankees can definitely be considered the biggest fav of the day but all my plays from previous seasons and all back testing are based on covers and consistency is key here.

having said that the time stamp on sbrs' pinnacle opening line is 10 min earlier than covers posted theirs with nyy as the biggest fav....so in actual fact yankees might have opened as the biggest favorite....but again, i'm trying to maintain consistency so i stick with covers and texas.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-26-12, 07:40 PM

That was an incredible PUSH! Who would of thought 5 runs would be scored in the 13th!

**DustyDiamond** · 05-27-12, 09:42 AM

Looks like Texas is the play again today

**slapshot** · 05-27-12, 11:51 AM

21-17-14 -16.52
wins-losses-pushes

sunday
texas......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**push**

**slapshot** · 05-28-12, 08:26 AM

22-17-14 -11.52
wins-losses-pushes

monday
texas......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**win**

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-28-12, 12:17 PM

people playing this system and on3's system is on texas for like 11 units not including the juice.

**Nino7** · 05-29-12, 04:31 AM

and texas wins...

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-29-12, 11:30 AM

Looks like texas again. (-1) -130
.

**slapshot** · 05-29-12, 12:12 PM

23-17-14 -6.52
wins-losses-pushes

tuesday
texas......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**win**

**slapshot** · 05-30-12, 10:47 AM

23-18-14 -12.77
wins-losses-pushes

wednesday
texas......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

**GGPLAYER** · 05-30-12, 11:00 AM

Texas, Texas, Texas....it's always Texas..LOL

**Ville Helm** · 05-30-12, 08:06 PM

Ugh! Looks like another Texas loss. Beginning to wonder about my faith in this system - been down & chasing so long...

**alexknyc** · 05-30-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Ville Helm

Ugh! Looks like another Texas loss. Beginning to wonder about my faith in this system - been down & chasing so long...

It's the end of May-- there hasn't been so long yet this year.

**stevex** · 05-30-12, 09:53 PM

Exactly. There's still June July and August, this system will make us good profits by the end of the year, just have to be able to manage your bankroll to get through the tough spots. That's the name of the game right there, if you can do that your good to go.

**DustyDiamond** · 05-31-12, 06:15 AM

Only three games tonight, I think there needs to be at least 5 for a play

**Bradfordmiller** · 05-31-12, 06:50 AM

According to page 1 Dusty, minimum of three games, so doesn't look like we will get the shakes tonite after all

**slapshot** · 05-31-12, 09:54 AM

i am playing today.

bets previous years and back testing the years before playing the system was all based on a minimum of 3 games on the card for the day.....so all data i have is based on 3 games or more.

bol whatever you chose to do.

**slapshot** · 05-31-12, 09:54 AM

23-19-14 -20.82
wins-losses-pushes

thursday
boston......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-31-12, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Exactly. There's still June July and August, this system will make us good profits by the end of the year, just have to be able to manage your bankroll to get through the tough spots. That's the name of the game right there, if you can do that your good to go.

Have you looked at last years stats? Chasing broke even at best, so those of you who are betting the same way slapshot is i advise some caution as usual. So many of you blindly follow the system with out any back testing. I did my own back testing thanks to Slapshots spread sheet and found that chasing was break even at best last year based on A-B-C chase. And took nearly whole season just to clear 1 loss by flat betting 5 units at a time (after the C loss). Get your heads out of your asses and research the numbers yourself. If you all really think you will show a nice profit by end of the season chasing, then I STRONGLY advise you to go look at the numbers right meow!

Labby players are still in the black and have been for every year of this system, all though there has been some heavy lines which is why bankroll management is so key. Just dont follow blindly as so many did in on3's thread. A few with bad bankroll management lost their bankrolls because they see 196-8 and figure oh we have 3 losses so far so shouldn't get another loss for another month or so, then came 2 or 3 more losses and they kissed their bankrolls good bye! Bankroll management should always be based on the worst year of the back test to determine the correct size of the bankroll needed.

Good LUck on Boston
JMD

LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY ~LABBY ~ LABBY ~ LABBY

**slapshot** · 05-31-12, 01:44 PM

jmd, if you played the system last year to end of august and chased the losing streak back at the end august into the first 7 days of september you did make 62 units profit......just like you would have done all other years i have data from, playing the system my way.

so what is the solution to the problem we have now? the biggest problem for me has been the unit size. i didn't stick to my original plan after the 4 game losing streak late april because the dollar amount to risk was daunting.

once we're out of this hole i will lower my unit size drastically and continue to play like first planned.

passed years, really bad losing streaks with the same unit size i have played with so far this year has occurred late in the season and has been sorted out without stress from winnings earlier in the season. the lesson learned is simply bet smaller amounts and pressure will decrease in direct relationship.