system integrity 2012

[J.M. Disciple]

if you lost 17.4 after 3 straight losses. you split that up in 4 parts --> 4.35 + 1 unit profit
game 4 is to win 5.35.

due this bad stretch we're seeing right now...starting with 4 straight losses and continued poor play of the biggest favorite.....2 wins on 11 days lead me to decide not to continue the chase and risk a large portion of the bankroll on one single bet. but to buy more time and bet to win 5 units per bet.

like i wrote in the first post.....your unit size should be 1% of your starting bankroll. those 100 units you have should be enough to wait bad stretches out. right now we're down about 10 units and it will take an unrealistic bad run from here to lose the remaining 90 units.

so after a 3 game series you split it up in 4 parts to win 5.35 units total. You are not doing a 5.35 chase then right? Just straight flat betting until it evens out then continue with 3 game chase again?

i was not sure if I made my point in my previous post. I thought you were doing

A: 8.2 to win 5 units
B: 21.64 to win 13.2
C: 55 to win 34

That was my concern cause after a 3 game series followed by a win there could easily be another 3 game series loss.

But you just seem to be flat betting which seems ok..

Alright Good Luck

[wade1]

Phillies lines are bloated. they are the worst team in the east despite there pitching.

[slapshot]

so after a 3 game series you split it up in 4 parts to win 5.35 units total. You are not doing a 5.35 chase then right? Just straight flat betting until it evens out then continue with 3 game chase again?

i was not sure if I made my point in my previous post. I thought you were doing

A: 8.2 to win 5 units
B: 21.64 to win 13.2
C: 55 to win 34

That was my concern cause after a 3 game series followed by a win there could easily be another 3 game series loss.

But you just seem to be flat betting which seems ok..

Alright Good Luck

you need to win 5.35 on each next 4 wins to win back the total loss from the 3 game losing streak.
i am betting flat now because we are facing one of the worst stretches i have faced with this system....the idea is to not expose too much of the bankroll during this cold streak and wait for the tide to turn.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks again slapshot. I cant give any more points today cause already gave you two for the system post. I was just a little worried about chasing to win 5 or flat betting. Flatting is a much better idea.

[J.M. Disciple]

BASED ON (-1RL) 2012 SEASON RECORD UP TO DATE.

4/5 philly Push
4/6 LAA Win
4/7 LAA Lose
4/8 Tex WIN
4/9 TEX WIN
4/10 TEX PUSH
4/11 TEX LOSE
4/12 TEX WIN
4/13 MIAMI PUSH
4/14 STL WIN
4/15 LAD PUSH
4/16 WASH WIN
4/17 NYY WIN
4/18 NYY LOSE
4/19 NYY PUSH
4/20 TB LOSE
4/21 LAA WIN
4/22 TB WIN
4/23 MIL PUSH
4/24 DET LOSE
4/25 MIL LOSE
4/26 DET LOSE
4/27 PHILLY LOSE
4/28 CINCI WIN
4/29 CINCI PUSH
4/30 LAA PUSH
5/01 TB WIN
5/2 DET LOSE
5/3 TB PUSH
5/4 WASH PUSH
5/5 SEA WIN
5/6 STL WIN
5/7 PHIL LOSE
5/8 DET WIN
5/9 PHIL LOSE
5/10 WASH PENDING

Based on a starting labby line of 1-1-1-1 and running a traditional labby line with average juice of (-150) labby players would be up 7units right now with an extra unit on their line at 1-1-1-3 right now.

I know the juice is average of (-164) so bet would be a little higher. Also note the biggest bet of this system assuming 2 units per labby line would be on 4/28/2012 when cinci played. I had that labby line at (1-1-1-3-6-10.5-17.25) Which makes the max bet of this system for labby players (27.38 to win 18.25)

This is some good research for the worse run we had in this system in a long time based on slapshots back test. Probably should knock down the unit size to half the amount until you have a nice cushion of profit.

It wont maximize your profit, but almost promises over 6 seasons you would not go bust. Would have to go go back even further to figure it out, but this seems like a very solid system. Labbying this system would make it one of the only popular systems thats up units right now.

Or stick to the one slapshot is laying it out and hopefully catch a heater soon and recover the units lost.

Good Luck

[J.M. Disciple]

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner! Cash Wash

[slapshot]

15-11-10 -4.22 units
wins-losses-pushes

friday
philly......-1 to win 5 units
philly and la dodgers opened at the same price....philly have 1 run higher run total.

yesterday
washington......-1 to win 5 units**win**

[J.M. Disciple]

LAD up to -169 now.... philly -154...

[1958]

I do not want to look smarter than you all but again I say that playing the DOG+1,5 line would have been much better...
no more than two consecutive losses , just wins instead: +21 wins

after all star game, the FAV-1 system will do better than DOG+1,5 system (see also post #229).
Hope you all ,do not get angry

[alexknyc]

I do not want to look smarter than you all but again I say that playing the DOG+1,5 line would have been much better...
no more than two consecutive losses , just wins instead: +21 wins

after all star game, the FAV-1 system will do better than DOG+1,5 system (see also post #229).
Hope you all ,do not get angry

The only thing anyone might get angry about is you making these predictions with a grand total of 46 games as a backtest.

And, if anyone actually followed your advice, they might get angry when they go broke on a system with a 46-game backtest.

Until you understand variance and statistical significance, you'll continue to think that playing the +1.5 RL is a better bet because it would have won last night. Of course, when it does lose (and it will), you'll be paying significantly more in juice than the ML people. It isn't all about just the straight up W-L records.

It's entirely possible that you're right about the +1.5 RL being better (at least, pre-All Star Game, as you appear to imply in your post) but, without a real backtest, few people will take you seriously.

[J.M. Disciple]

I do not want to look smarter than you all but again I say that playing the DOG+1,5 line would have been much better...
no more than two consecutive losses , just wins instead: +21 wins

after all star game, the FAV-1 system will do better than DOG+1,5 system (see also post #229).
Hope you all ,do not get angry

This has already been discussed in this thread. When it first came up I thought of this myself, but thanks to Slapshot's 6 year back test!!!! He had a 13 game winning streak as well as a 19 game winning streak. I am pretty sure you would break peoples bankroll on a 19 game losing streak.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone have excel file from last year for the W/L each day? I want to run a season long labby on it to see what the profit is as well as the following years, but just checking to see if anyone has it before I do my back test.

ANYONE?

[slapshot]

Anyone have excel file from last year for the W/L each day? I want to run a season long labby on it to see what the profit is as well as the following years, but just checking to see if anyone has it before I do my back test.

ANYONE?

pm me your e-mail address and i will send you the results for 2011.

[slapshot]

16-11-10 +0.78 units
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
philly......-1 to win 5 units


yesterday
philly......-1 to win 5 units**win**

[GGPLAYER]

just marking this thread so I can find it easily

[J.M. Disciple]

back test mistake...

refer to post below...

[slapshot]

Labby results are in for 2011
Units made 19
lines cleared 19
1% bankroll per line
Most money in play at one time based on (-150 odds) 16 units (7#s)
Biggest bet via traditional labby ($202.50 to win $135)
Basically betting 10 units to win 7units

If you are only running 1 system and can handle half your bankroll on the line 2% per line is most profitable.

Bankroll management based on $10 unit size
$1,000 bankroll (100units)
labby line: 2.5 - 2.5 - 2.5 - 2.5 (1unit)

$1,500 bankroll (150units)
5-5-5-5 (2units)

$2000 bankroll (200 units)
7.5 - 7.5 - 7.5 - 7.5 (3units)

This is a conservative approach but assures you will not go bust over the long run. Bankroll is never really in jeopardy like this and will win 20-30 units a season.


slapshot said about 90units a season I am not sure where the numbers are coming from.

how on earth do you only have 19 units won when the system generated 81 wins/units last year....april through sept.
on average the system generates 90 wins/units

[J.M. Disciple]

how on earth do you only have 19 units won when the system generated 81 wins/units last year....april through sept.
on average the system generates 90 wins/units

Ill go back and double check but i have the series record for A-b-c at 65-4. Also every loss adds a # to the labby line so it may take 2-3 bets to clear a line which equals 1 unit. Its 38units that season if you did 2% per line i.e 2units per line. Ill double check again, but im pretty sure that is correct based on the file you sent me. I even tested the 5 units after a series loss to see what it takes. Maybe Ill just type of the results and post them for the entire season. I just posted the "short post" so I wouldn't clutter the thread so much. I went day by day to test it though. I did everything by hand though and have about 6 months on my notebook with all the numbers. Ill go over it tonight and repost my results.

[J.M. Disciple]

double post...

[J.M. Disciple]

2011 Results Via Labby

Ok i went ahead and did it on the excel file you sent me. I am trying to attach it on here with my labby as extra columns, but basically labby cleared 25 lines last year, so 1% would = 25 units and 2% per line would = 50 units on the season. I will go back and look at how A-B-C did based on -150 odds and see if I get 80 units like you did.

But now im positive its 25 lines cleared for traditional labby last year.

[J.M. Disciple]

For a standard A-B-C chase I got a record of 81-5
Losses were on:
April 4-6 (L-L-L)
April 25-27 (L-L-L)
July 15-18 (L-L-P-L)
Austin 24 - 29 (L-L-P-R-P-L)
Sept. 12-17 (L -p - p - p -L - L )


81 WINS = 81 UNITS
5 LOSSES @ 17 UNITS A LOSS = 85 UNITS
SEASON PROFIT -4UNITS

Could save a few losses taking the money line, but other series would be a bigger loss then 17 units.

[J.M. Disciple]

slapshot

I emailed you back with the open office file containing all the labby and chase info. I had trouble trying to attach it on this thread.

[slapshot]

slapshot

I emailed you back with the open office file containing all the labby and chase info. I had trouble trying to attach it on this thread.

got the file....if you'd like to post and play the system with that strategy feel free to do so...there is no one and only rule to play the picks.

i still believe in the 1 game won equals one unit won strategy and will continue to play like that.

[slapshot]

16-12-10 -5.47 units
wins-losses-pushes

sunday
philly......-1 to win 5 units


yesterday
philly......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

[slapshot]

16-12-11 -5.47 units
wins-losses-pushes

monday
texas......-1 to win 5 units


yesterday
philly......-1 to win 5 units**push**

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone else running a labby with this system besides me? I know a couple people mentioned running 2 lines for this wondering what your line is looking like right now... I have 5#s on my line totally around 4-5 units. Im up about 1.5u on the season after todays loss.

[J.M. Disciple]

Tex or Washington tomorrow. Ill probably stray a little bit fromt he system and take both to clear 2 #s each. Good Luck everyone and keep up the good work slapshot. 2-3 wins away from the black.

[knugen]

Im using 1 line labby, im also up around 1 unit, time to turn this around now

[GGPLAYER]

amazing to see a team like Texas only put up one run.

[slapshot]

16-13-11 -10.82 units
wins-losses-pushes

tuesday
texas......-1 to win 5 units


yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

[J.M. Disciple]

Tex getting pounded!!! i need stick to 2 strike instead of 3-4 strike

[stevex]

This system is going to hit a really good hot streak soon..

Hope you guys are managing your bankrolls so you'll be along for the ride.

[J.M. Disciple]

Easy to manage with 1 play a day and labby

Hot streak is not always guaranteed which is why i dont like flat betting this and why im not flat betting...

[gamblingisfun]

What has been the winning % for biggest fave -1 over the life of this system? So far this year it's hitting slightly above 50%.... excluding pushes, I'm only counting wins and losses for percentage purposes

[slapshot]

15-13-11 -19.77 units
wins-losses-pushes

wednesday
texas......-1 to win 5 units


yesterday
texas......-1 to win 5 units**loss**