system integrity 2012

[DollarBill10]

you can find these lines form different paths.....look for live odds or mlb odds then look for line history

I just can't seem to find Pinnacle...

[Nino7]

in this forum under live odds u can find pinnacle.set it as opener/closer

[J.M. Disciple]

What price did you all get on CWS? The line seems to be dropping a lot still. I got the -1 at (+100) @ 5dimes. Much better then the other games. CWS is on fire right now so i like the price even if the line did drop a lot.

these are the pinnacle opening lines at covers.com
phi -160
tb -162
sf -155
cws -169

All seems like good bets maybe 4 team parlay?

[slapshot]

If you bet to win 5.49 units last year, why is everyone only betting 5units this year? Also I based it on -150 odds instead of your -160 to make the math just a tid bit easier. It would just take longer to make the loss back since its worse odds so case not closed. You can use that same record at -160 and I can almost guarantee that extra .1 is not going to bump from +13units on the season to +60.

You are misleading people who are following blindly with incorrect numbers. Everyone is expecting to make 60 units on the season as you say and Frankly that is not going to happen with the chase method you are using.

If I am wrong please send me correct numbers with the W/L above. I am not going to waste my time adjusting all my numbers from 1.5 to 1.6 because it is just not going to make that much of a difference.

do you read my posts at all?
or do you just fail the operation of stringing english words together and comprehend the concept the words make up?

go back and read post # 245 and #385
the basic message in post 245 is that my units size was too big up to that point so i had to deviate from my original chase strategy.....so i started betting flat to win 5 back in early may.

you really don't understand where i got 5.49 from do you?
again....just for you jmd becuase i'm sure everyone else here is sick of these explanations.

add the the total loss up of units from the 3 game losing streak....split that number up in 4 parts.....guess what number you end up with if you add 1 unit of profit? that total is what you need to win over the next 4 wins.

and btw....it doesn't matter what odds you make the calculations on....i give up if you don't understand the idea, just because you don't recognize the figures in my example compared to yours.

i chose 1.6 decimal because it's actually the average odds, the biggest favorite of the day is priced at, if you bet -1.

[slapshot]

I just can't seem to find Pinnacle...

don't know it's allowed to post links to sites like covers but here we go.
this is where you have the line history of chicago white sox today

covers.com/sports/odds/lineHistory.aspx?eventId=334425&sport=ml b

[J.M. Disciple]

I understand you took the series loss and divided by 4 and got the 5.49. Yes I know you got average odds of -164, I read all your post. I am just stating that you wont get 60 units on the season with 5 units or 5.49 units by flat betting until the profit peak is reached after a series loss. I am really curious how you say you won 60-90units on a season using this strategy. I just do not see it working based on my numbers whether I use 1.5 or 1.6.

Maybe I am not the only one who is curious to how you got 60 units. I am just the only one with a loud enough mouth or balls to say some thing.

Whatever I am done with this discussion unless you prove some how that you got 60 units on the season or your just making things up out of thin air. Im labbying anyways and currently up almost 40 units more then you and your chasers (roughly 12 units in the black).

Not trying to start an argument with a bunch of name calling, but a discussion of actual numbers, but if you can not provide actual numbers from last season on your "60 units" I understand why.

[slapshot]

do you really understand how a chase is played?
for example if you lose 1 unit on game 1.....game number two you bet to win 2 units.....if you win game two you have made one unit profit.
i really can't simplify it more than that........if you played system integrity last year like that you would have made 60 units at the end of august.

[Ville Helm]

Another loss. Slapshot - please tell me we'll be alright? I don't want to put posts up but if you're still confident I can make my losses back, that'll cheer me up.

[stevex]

Getting rough in here man and J.M. does have some good points I have to admit like are you choosing them from Pinnacle or somewhere else? Just be honest because your down a million units right now....

[J.M. Disciple]

I understand how the chase is played. If you look at my numbers.

1.5 to win 1 unit
3.75 to win 2.5
9.38 to win 6.25

I clearly stated that in my post if you look closely. The only difference was that I used 1.5 instead of 1.6. That .1 difference is not going to make a 50 unit difference in the season in terms of profit. I honestly think you miss back tested last year in terms of profit made and now are leading people on based on a wrong back test. You may of looked at it and said, "hey there were 82 wins, there must of been at least 60 units won," but my math clearly shows almost 14 units won at season end and that was with better odds then what you use.

If I am wrong I will apologize and this discussion will end really quickly if you can show through the full season that you made 60 units.

[J.M. Disciple]

Getting rough in here man and J.M. does have some good points I have to admit like are you choosing them from Pinnacle or somewhere else? Just be honest because your down a million units right now....

The loss will most likely be recovered. I am not trying to prove the system will not be in the black, I am just proving it is not 60 to 90 units profitable based on chasing at least not for 2006 or 2011. I haven't tested the years in between but based on -150 odds its no where near that unless you are using a labby.

[J.M. Disciple]

One last post for the night.

CWS tomorrow 6/3 good luck all. be very surprised if im wrong once again 2:10pm et start.

[DollarBill10]

Slapshot~

What's the play for today?

[slapshot]

23-21-14-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain
-30.73 units

sunday
detroit......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
chicago white sox......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

[slapshot]

I understand how the chase is played. If you look at my numbers.

1.5 to win 1 unit
3.75 to win 2.5
9.38 to win 6.25

I clearly stated that in my post if you look closely. The only difference was that I used 1.5 instead of 1.6. That .1 difference is not going to make a 50 unit difference in the season in terms of profit. I honestly think you miss back tested last year in terms of profit made and now are leading people on based on a wrong back test. You may of looked at it and said, "hey there were 82 wins, there must of been at least 60 units won," but my math clearly shows almost 14 units won at season end and that was with better odds then what you use.

If I am wrong I will apologize and this discussion will end really quickly if you can show through the full season that you made 60 units.

first of all, the chase is played like this...1 game won equals 1 unit won.
there is no "hey there was 82 games won so we must have collected 60 units"

last year was not back tested....it was played.

again, the odds doesn't matter, you speak about the .1 difference is not gonna make difference.....
explain for me how the odds matters when you bet "to win"?

i could use the odds 1.30 decimal in the example...that would only generate very large numbers to risk in the example.....i used 1.6 or -167 american because it's the true average.

i have put together how the first ten units was won last year as example how the chase works....i don't have time and energy to
go through all 179 games of the season....but you should be able to get the idea how the units are generated by the sample below.

team..result........risk to win.............total units.............left to chase after 3 game losing streak
stl.....loss..........1.66 to win 1...........-1.66
phi.....Push........4.43 to win 2.66........-1.66
phi.....win#1.......4.43 to win 2.66.........+1
phi.....win#2.......1.66 to win 1..............+2
stl......loss.........1.66 to win 1.............+0.34
phi......loss........4.43 to win 2.66.........-4.09
stl.......loss.......11.82 to win 7.09.......-15.91

add the units up from the losing streak
1.66+4.43+11.82=17.91
17.91/4=4.47+1.....bet to win 5.47 over next 4 wins

phi.....win#3......9.12 to win 5.47......-10.44..............................-17.91+5.47= -12.44
det.....win#4 ....9.12 to win 5.47........-4.97..............................-12.47+5.47= -6.97
sf.......Push .......9.12 to win 5.47........-4.97..............................-12.47+5.47= -6.97
mil......Push .......9.12 to win 5.47........-4.97..............................-12.47+5.47= -6.97
sea.....Push .......9.12 to win 5.47........-4.97...............................-12.47+5.47= -6.97
nyy.....Rain........9.12 to win 5.47.......-4.97...............................-12.47+5.47= -6.97
nyy.....win#5......9.12 to win 5.47......+0.5.......................... ......-6.97+5.47= -1.5
nyy.....push........9.12 to win 5.47.......+0.5......................... ......-6.97+5.47= -1.5
phi......loss.........9.12 to win 5.47.......-8.62..............................-1.5-9.12= -10.62
bos.....win#6......24.37 to win 14.62.....+6............................ ......-10.62+14.62= 4
bos.....win#7......1.66 to win 1.............+7
cin......loss.........1.66 to win 1............+5.34
phi......loss.........4.43 to win 2.66.......+0.91
phi......Push........11.82 to win 7.09 ......+0.91
stl.......win#8......11.82 to win 7.09 ........+8
mil.......win#9.........1.66 to win 1...........+9
tex.......win#10......1.66 to win 1...........+10

[slapshot]

Another loss. Slapshot - please tell me we'll be alright? I don't want to put posts up but if you're still confident I can make my losses back, that'll cheer me up.

i wish i could say we will be alright.....i would have said we will be alright after april and things will turn around in may
but fact of the matter is that we haven't turned the corner yet and we are in june.....

looking at the first two months passed years...we are actually hit the exact same winning percentage this year as last year, 40.3% which is real bad numbers as the system long term, hits about 50%

the difference this year is that we've had two 4 game losing streaks and one 3 game losing streak...we didn't have that last year.

all years prior to 2011 show winning percentage around 50% for the two first months.
last year the overall winning percentage landed at 45%

can we get back in black? we definitely can...the system has generated incredible runs in the past but no one can guarantee that's awaiting around the corner for us.

personally, if i fall down to minus 40 units i will call it a season.

[J.M. Disciple]

I wont question your 60 unit season any more when you go from flat betting 9.12 to win 5.47 up to risking 24units to win 14units. From what we were discussing or what I was discussing was the strategy you are applying this year. I do not see how you go from chasing 5 units at a time last year to flat betting this year. If you were to lose that 24 units you going to chase the next game?

phi......loss.........9.12 to win 5.47.......-8.62..............................-1.5-9.12= -10.62
bos.....win#6......24.37 to win 14.62.....+6............................ ......-10.62+14.62= 4
bos.....win#7......1.66 to win 1.............+7

lets say win #6 was a loss your #7 win would be
Lose#5A: 9.12 to win 5.47
Lose#6B: 24.37 to win 14.62
Win #7C: 55.18 to win 34.39

Total series Risk: 88.67.................Based on 1% unit size wouldn't have enough in your bankroll to do this chase.

Thats with a 1% unit size! Due to the worse streak in this system you would of busted peoples bankrolls with this "chase" of yours

For example
L........1.66 to win 1
L........4.43 to win 2.66
L........11.82 to win 7.09


W..... 9.12 to win 5.47
W.... ..9.12 to win 5.47
L.... 9.12 to win 5.47
L......24.37 to win 14.62
L......55.18 to win 34.39

Do you split this series loss again? You have a flawed system buddy. You may have back tested the wins and losses but you apparently didn't back test the numbers. Just cause you played it for 1 year doesn't mean it would be the same this year. Im sure everyone in here understands the risk now.

[stevex]

Just a rough patch fellas. slapshot, I wouldn't recommend stopping. A system is a system for a reason, it has bad streaks and has good streaks and once that good streak hits for us, you won't be there to make back money...

Personally I'm following the system for the entire year. It'll turn around at some point.

[DustyDiamond]

Not looking good today.

[slapshot]

I wont question your 60 unit season any more when you go from flat betting 9.12 to win 5.47 up to risking 24units to win 14units.

i'm not going into broken record mode and try to explain the 5.47 issue again.

From what we were discussing or what I was discussing was the strategy you are applying this year. I do not see how you go from chasing 5 units at a time last year to flat betting this year. If you were to lose that 24 units you going to chase the next game?

if read post #424 you see the reason why i'm flat betting right now.

Total series Risk: 88.67.................Based on 1% unit size wouldn't have enough in your bankroll to do this chase.

you got it...the unit size was too big.

[ChiLLx]

Incredible, another Detroit loss

We're all just bleeding money at this point

[stevex]

At least look at the bright side...

It can't get any worse than this. The system was up 19 units earlier in the year so we know it works, its just going through a bad stretch right now.

[slapshot]

it shouldn't be possible to get worse.....our losing streak is extended to 5 now...
the system hasn't generated 6 straight losses last 6 years

the slide started 41 days ago with a 4 game losing streak....during this stretch we've won 15 games.....winning percentage 36.6....we need a remarkable shift in performance of big favorites to climb out of this hole......

[DollarBill10]

it shouldn't be possible to get worse.....our losing streak is extended to 5 now...
the system hasn't generated 6 straight losses last 6 years

the slide started 41 days ago with a 4 game losing streak....during this stretch we've won 15 games.....winning percentage 36.6....we need a remarkable shift in performance of big favorites to climb out of this hole......

AND I still can't find the PINNACLE OPENING LINE.

[J.M. Disciple]

AND I still can't find the PINNACLE OPENING LINE.

On covers scores, click the game you want under "line moves." it will show several books.

[J.M. Disciple]

So if you lose tomorrow with this chase or this flat betting you are on a 55 unit downswing?

I brought up chase compared to flat betting cause both 5 units and 5.47 are similar unit sizes so I do not see why you wouldn't chase. I understand you split it after 4 games and divided. I am not asking where you got 5.47 from I clearly understand that. Just wish everyone will stop following so blindly. OK ill shut my mouth now and let everyone continue to stay in the red most likely.

JUne and JUly are usually good for favorites, so for those of you who are down 30 units or more I would just suggest start over with the labby now. Flat betting is just not going to get you back to that peak any time soon. Better off starting with a 10 unit labby line with 5 #s 2units per # and after you clear these three lines you will be back in the black... Ok this is my official last comment about this strategy everyone is following.


Good Luck
Hopefully turns around for you all.
Labby Players should still be in the black right now if im not mistaken.

[Ville Helm]

Need a winning run - that's all. Slapshot himself quoted that run in April. From that - got down to minus 5.69 or something like that. Recently, just need a winning run & things will change quickly. When you're at the bottom, the only way is up. I'll call it a season when Slapshot does. & jmd - Like I said, open your own forum, instead of annoying people here please. I'll be interested if u do

[J.M. Disciple]

LAA seems to be the play tomorrow currently -149 vs SEA. Last time they swept Sea 4-0 in their series so seems like a good bet. Not a bad way to keep from losing 6 straight games over the last 6 seasons. Dont go all in because SEA has been crushing some teams win streaks. Good luck! Just 6u to win 4.1u for me tomorrow.

Someone care to share their labby results? I made a couple of my own bets the other day as well as misbet on CWS and got lucky i guess today, so my line is not the same as others. Just curious what it looks like right now.

[J.M. Disciple]

Need a winning run - that's all. Slapshot himself quoted that run in April. From that - got down to minus 5.69 or something like that. Recently, just need a winning run & things will change quickly. When you're at the bottom, the only way is up. I'll call it a season when Slapshot does. & jmd - Like I said, open your own forum, instead of annoying people here please. I'll be interested if u do

Why would I open my own thread when slapshot and myself are discussing his system? Your insight is

Ill be sure next time I want to discuss someones system to start a seperate thread and invite them into it LOL

[DollarBill10]

On covers scores, click the game you want under "line moves." it will show several books.

But I never see PINNACLE.

[slapshot]

23-22-14-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain
-36.68 units

monday
los angeles angels of anaheim......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
detroit......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

[slapshot]

But I never see PINNACLE.

are you still not able to find pinnacle?
use my link from post #425 and scroll down....you can't miss pinnacle in the long list of bookmakers.

[stevex]

This thing HAS to turn around at some point.....right?

Like my goodness.

[J.M. Disciple]

first time this system has lost 6 straight in 6 seasons!!!!!!!! but dont worry steve all your bankroll management skills chasing should put you back in the black end of season right? hahaha

You didn't bust on this game did you steve? Whos the joke now? You always talk about labbying, so why are you chasing?

[stevex]

What are you even talking about loser? I made a general statement about wanting the system to turn around that had nothing to do with chasing/labbying/whatever the hell your even talking about. I've said time and time again in the system threads that I implement a labby. I DON'T CHASE. So again, what are you even talking about?

I'm only down a little from this system any way so are you the one that's mad for chasing? Haha

Such a clown.