system integrity 2012

[Ville Helm]

Angels dropped 4 in the 5th. looks like we'll hit 6 losses in a row now. Why is this season so bad? Correct me if 'm wrong, but i'm sure we've only had a single 4 game winning run - and that's the best all season. Bookies have figured out this type of system, or they've priced teams wanting punters to back them - like in the tv show Las Vegas - they reckon guys will back the red hot favourites just because of the price. Perhaps the bookies have beaten us now ?

[slapshot]

the system started well with 9 wins first 19 games but after that we’ve found new ways lose baseball games every night after first 19 games.

i don’t mind losing 40+ units (well, yes i actually do) if it was from a rough patch of plays of lets say 5-10 games.

we’ve played 61 games so far this season we have a 37.7 winning percentage with 23 wins….since the slump started on april 24th with a 4 game losing streak we’ve played 42 games and actually only won 14 games during this stretch….a 33.3 winning percentage.

the low winning percentage could be dealt with, but what kills systems like this are the losing streaks….during this 42 day time span we have…..1 three games…1 four game losing streaks and from last night we picked up a record breaking 6 game losing streak

this sample is too large in my mind to just call it a rough patch.

[slapshot]

my opinion is that we cannot only look at performance past years to justify continues plays….the shift in trend how big favorites perform this year must be taken into consideration as well.


we have 85 games to go to the end of august….i don’t recommend playing into september as results has been erratic in the past…….over the next 42 days I’m sure the winning percentage will increase but not to a level where we will actually make money..not even if you include all 85 days.

if you play this as a chase you might be able make money if you’re willing to string a series of “do or die” bets together and win…..but that’s obviously not recommendable.

i will continue to post the plays every day and personally i will play very small just to keep things interesting….will only update w/l record, no units.

for those of you who will continue to do business as usual….data from the passed show strong results after a 3, 4 or 5 game losing streak so there might be some wins around corner for those who have patience……but there are no guarantees as we seen this season.

[slapshot]

23-23-14-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain
-41.4 units

tuesday
philly -1

yesterday
los angeles angels of anaheim......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

[analyzer]

Thanks for the information.

[Win89]

are you still not able to find pinnacle?
use my link from post #425 and scroll down....you can't miss pinnacle in the long list of bookmakers.

Pinnacle is not in that list.

[slapshot]

Pinnacle is not in that list.

yes it is in the list

[DollarBill10]

I really am not crazy but I can't find Pinnacle anywhere on that list. Can you tell me what you click to get where you are at when you see Pinnacle?

Thanks.

[jonohull]

I really am not crazy but I can't find Pinnacle anywhere on that list. Can you tell me what you click to get where you are at when you see Pinnacle?

Thanks.

Turn off your adblocker for that page.

[slapshot]

23-24-14-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

wednesday
milwaukee -1

yesterday
philly**loss**

[slapshot]

I really am not crazy but I can't find Pinnacle anywhere on that list. Can you tell me what you click to get where you are at when you see Pinnacle?

Thanks.

go to
covers.com
select "mlb" from the menu bar
find and click "live odds" when you are at the mlb page
find and click "full odds"...at this page you have all match-ups to see opening lines click on "line history"....scroll down and find pinnacle

[DollarBill10]

OK I have tried to turn off the blocker and I have tried the directions above and I have nothing...I still do not see it.

OH WELL. I will just wait for post.

Thanks.

[slapshot]

OK I have tried to turn off the blocker and I have tried the directions above and I have nothing...I still do not see it.

OH WELL. I will just wait for post.

Thanks.

the game for today is already posted
what happens when you click on the link in post #245?

[Win89]

the game for today is already posted
what happens when you click on the link in post #245?

Most books show but no Pinnacle.

[slapshot]

24-24-14-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

thursday
philly -1

yesterday
milwaukee**win**

[slapshot]

so, lad are 36-21 this year........philly have a losing record 28-30 and coming into todays game on a 5 game losing streak
and the lines makers have philly as the biggest favorite of the day at -180

lad won the game 8-3.

this system will never work if the lines makers are brain-dead.

[Ville Helm]

so, lad are 36-21 this year........philly have a losing record 28-30 and coming into todays game on a 5 game losing streak
and the lines makers have philly as the biggest favorite of the day at -180

lad won the game 8-3.

this system will never work if the lines makers are brain-dead.

I've said before - I bet some of these odds are calculated to entice people in to bet the teams - not because of stats or who is really more likely to win. That Boston game a week ago is a prime example - they had nothing to play for, series was won, yet they were priced favourites. There has to be a way to take this into account when selecting a play for each day. I thought this system would work based on math/law of averages etc principle. But bookmakers regularly cut prices on teams purely because punters back them - not because they are genuinely in a prime position to post up an easy victory. Phillies can't score so i will never be backing them again this season and I bet they were made favourites purely because they were 'due a win' V LAD. They haven't the ability to justify being backed.

[J.M. Disciple]

majority of the public was on LAD for a good reason. All though it would be near impossible to back test doing a NO play on days where the biggest favorite is sub .500 could be a good filter.

I got lucky to get my bets in late.

[J.M. Disciple]

Slapshot I know we had our differences, but do you mind going back and seeing what losses we could of eliminated by canceling out sub.500 teams? Also canceling out wins as well....

If you post this years plays in order of Date / Team Ill do it... I got some extra time on my hands today.

Thanks
JMD

[slapshot]

april
5 phi 1
6 laa P
7 laa 0
8 tex 1
9 tex 1
10 tex P
11 tex 0
12 tex 1
13 mia P
14 stl 1
15 lad P
16 was 1
17 nyy 1
18 nyy 0
19 nyy P
20 tam 0
21 laa 1
22 tam 1
23 mil P
24 det 0
25 mil 0
26 det 0
27 phi 0
28 cin 1
29 cin P
30 laa P

[slapshot]

may
1 tam 1
2 det 0
3 tam P
4 was P
5 sea 1
6 stl 1
7 phi 0
8 det 1
9 phi 0
10 was 1
11 phi 1
12 phi 0
13 phi P
14 tex 0
15 tex 0
16 tex 1
17 det 0
18 det 1
19 tor 1
20 mil 1
21 stl P
22 nyy P
23 stl 1
24 mia 0
25 lad 0
26 tex P
27 tex 1
28 tex 1
29 tex 0
30 tex 0
31 bos 0

[slapshot]

june
1 was R
2 cws 0
3 det 0
4 laa 0
5 phi 0
6 mil 1
7 phi 0

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks Slapshot... Ill see if I can get it done by end of tomorrow.



I will post it some time tomorrow as

W
L
P
or NO play based on filter.

Thanks again!

[slapshot]

24-25-14-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

friday
atlanta -1

yesterday
philly**loss**

[J.M. Disciple]

Ok im done with the records just need to go through and add everything up. I will have it posted tonight busy at work right now though.

Lets hope ATL keeps it up.

[J.M. Disciple]

april
5 phi 1….Record 0-0 … result push game 1-0.
6 laa P record 0-0 Win… final score 5-0
7 laa 0 record 1-0
8 tex 1 record 1-1
9 tex 1record 2-1
10 tex P record 3-1
11 tex 0 record 4-1
12 tex 1 record 4-2
13 mia P record 2-5
14 stl 1 record 5-3
15 lad P record 8 - 1
16 was 1 record 7-3
17 nyy 1 record 5-5
18 nyy 0 record 6-5
19 nyy P record 6-6
20 tam 0 record 7-6
21 laa 1 record 5-9
22 tam 1 record 8-7
23 mil P record 7 – 9
24 det 0 record 10 – 6
25 mil 0 record 9-9
26 det 0 record 10-8
27 phi 0 record 9 – 10
28 cin 1 record 9 - 11
29 cin P record 10-11
30 laa P record 7-15
may
1 tam 1 record 15 - 8
2 det 0 record 12-11
3 tam P record 17-8
4 was P record 16-9
5 sea 1 record 11- 17
6 stl 1 record 16- 11
7 phi 0 record 14-15
8 det 1record 14-14
9 phi 0 record 14-17
10 was 1 record 18-12
11 phi 1 record 14-18
12 phi 0 record 15-18
13 phi P record 15-19
14 tex 0 record 23- 12
15 tex 0 record 23-13
16 tex 1 record 23-14
17 det 0 record 18-19
18 det 1 record 18-20
19 tor 1 record 22-18
20 mil 1 record 16 -24
21 stl P record 22- 19
22 nyy P record 21-21
23 stl 1 record 24-19
24 mia 0 record 24-20
25 lad 0 record 30- 14
26 tex P record 28- 18
27 tex 1 record 29-18
28 tex 1 record 30-18
29 tex 0 record 31 -18
30 tex 0 record 31-19
31 bos 0 record 26- 24
june
1 was R record 29 - 21
2 cws 0 record 30-22
3 det 0 record 25 – 28
4 laa 0 Record: 28-27
5 phi 0 record: 28-28
6 mil 1 record 24 – 31
7 phi 0 record 28-30


red = loss
Green = win
The other plays are either not highlighted because of a sub .500 record or because of a push.

record 17 wins - 18 losses just below 50%. Not much improvement from 23-25... Maybe I miss counted a little bit, because I went through it really quickly right now. Still have huge losing streak at the end with teams above .500.

I guess we can rule out the sub .500 rule....

[slapshot]

24-25-15-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

saturday
chicago white sox -1

yesterday
atlanta**push**

[J.M. Disciple]

Nice easy win with CWS today

unit count should be some where in the -30s now I believe.

[stevex]

Hopefully where passed that rough stretch and can string a couple of W's to get back to a some what reasonable unit count.

Good W today though fellas!

[J.M. Disciple]

Inter-league usually gives favorites some nice wins with some consistency.

[slapshot]

25-25-15-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

sunday
new york yankees -1

yesterday
chicago white sox**win**

[J.M. Disciple]

I just noticed labby would of cleared 13 lines this season, but this last losing streak would of took a huge chunk of the bankroll.... I would have to check the odds, but looks pretty scary...

[slapshot]

25-25-16-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

monday
toronto -1

yesterday
new york yankees**push**

[slapshot]

25-26-16-1
wins-losses-pushes-rain

tuesday
texas -1

yesterday
toronto**loss**

[J.M. Disciple]

nice win today... anyone know aprox unit count from flat betting? I assume still floating around -40...