system integrity 2012

[knugen]

Tampa will clear a bit of this mess up tonight

[ghislaine]

Ha, dude talking about this system sucking, yet both lost

Know what your talking about...

Hi there Stevex
making a comeback to betting tonight and just wanted Your opinion on my MM
I will follow couple cappers and two systems, this and on3s.
I was thinking labby of course.
A simple four number labby for each capper and system, and even out every morning.
So the value of the games is the same, but still, basic labby.
Better than flat betting right ??

50-50-50-50 and after a loss 50-50-50-50-100
would give me 60-60-60-60-60 as the new line.

Onto something ??
Back tested this on my betus history and would`ve made me good profits

[CrazyCarl]

If being down 11 units is devastating to you, then you planned poorly.

[knugen]

Aahh not another push, frustrating

[J.M. Disciple]

I know the +1.5 has been mentioned with 63% to 68% for all dogs. Is it 63% going against the biggest favorite of the day at -170 on average? Has this been back tested at all? Im curious to the streaks cause I thought of one other thing about this thread.

In the past 6 seasons the biggest favorite of the day has never lost 6 straight, so I would just suggest skipping A B C wager and waiting to do a bigger chase on D E F for a larger amount. It was said earlier in this thread that has never lost 6 straight, so doing a 3 game chase from D would be undefeated in 6 seasons if im correct.

TB push today

Also with the +1.5 dogs going against the biggest favorite of the day in the back test see if you can labby it and let me know how it does.

Good LUCK Tomorrow

Maybe we should be running 2 labby lines.

Labby 1) biggest favorite of the day -1 (50%)
labby 2) Dog of the day going against our biggest favorite +1.5 (63%)

[stevex]

ghislaine...

Good to see you back and hopefully your in for the long haul. As long as you implement strict money management and never bet above your means, you'll be fine. As I've learned from years past, you can have a bad week or two, hell even a not so good month, but all that matters in the end is the profit you make at the end of the year...

Best of luck.

[slapshot]

11-9-9 -11.47 units
wins-losses-pushes

friday
washington......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
tampa......-1 to win 5 units**push**

[analyzer]

Thanks slapshot!

[J.M. Disciple]

4/5 Win A
4/6 Lose A
4/7 Win B
4/8 lose A
4/9 Lose B
4/10 Win C
4/11 Win A
4/12 Lose A
4/13 Win B
4/14 lose A
4/15 Win B
4/16 Lose A
4/17 Lose B
4/18 Win C
4/19 Win A
4/20 Win A
4/21 Lose A
4/22 lose B
4/23 Win C
4/24 Win A
4/25 win A
4/26 win A
4/27 win A
4/28 Lose A
4/29 win B
4/30 Win A
5/1 Lose A
5/2 Win B
5/3 Lose A


A: 9 - 8
B: 5- 3
C: 3-0



This is the current record for Underdogs at +1.5 this year going against the team for this system. I think its worth back testing. I know the winning percentage would just be the opposite of this one + pushes count as wins.

so over a 6 year back test I believe win % was around 50%? pushes were around 16%? So makes the dogs winning percent around 66% on the RL if im not mistaken.

Im curious to what kinda streaks there were though as well as how A-B-C martingale would fair.



Slapshot
do you have your best winning streak for your back test? if you were to just count straight wins and not pushes, meaning push would = loss.

[slapshot]

the longest winning streak where a push is counted as a loss is from 2008..19 games
in 2010 we had a 13 game winning streak...2nd longest.

[slapshot]

11-9-10 -11.47 units
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
seattle......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
washington......-1 to win 5 units**push**

[J.M. Disciple]

the longest winning streak where a push is counted as a loss is from 2008..19 games
in 2010 we had a 13 game winning streak...2nd longest.

holy crap!!!! I do not think +1.5 RL on the dogs will be that profitable then even with 66% wins. 19 game losing streak at around (-170) -1.5 RL will crush the labby!!! Will definitely go broke in that series. Needless to say I do not think this needs to be back tested any more.

Thanks Slap shot for your reply. I already gave my 2pts out today or I would give it to you. Points in the future though.

Thanks
JMD


PS
How did previous years in NHL do based on this system. I know a few of you followed it. You all followed it via labby or martingale? Do you have a thread link to NHL -1 line for "system integrity."

[slapshot]

i've never played nhl with this strategy and i'm not aware of anyone out there playing it either.

[J.M. Disciple]

I would have to go back through the thread but it was mentioned and said they did well this season.

[knugen]

nice win last night.. today it is rangers or rays??

[slapshot]

real tricky call today. tampa and st louis opened at the same pinnacle price at covers. the difficult thing is to determine what the opening line was on st louis as covers only list home odds.

covers have +149 on houston. when the odds is +149 at pinnacle the favorite in the game is at -159......that is the odds st louis opened at.

and tampa opened too at -159.

so we have a tie between tampa and st louis.

according to covers the run total on tampa opened at 7.5 and the st louis game was set to 8.

the higher total makes st louis the play.
12-9-10 -6.47 units
wins-losses-pushes

sunday
st louis......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
seattle......-1 to win 5 units**win**

[J.M. Disciple]

slapshot

out of your 6 year back test your biggest bet was around 10 units? Curious cause were discussing 2007 of on3 home game chase because martingale players would of lost 70 units that season, so raised some concern for me. Can you give out some stats of this system please.

Biggest Bet you would of had to make?
worst Season in terms of units made / loss
average amount of units made each season.

I know you stated never has lost more then 6 days in a row do you know how many times you could just skip A-B-C and wager on D-E-F? Then this system would be undefeated right? Be a lot less bets and not sure how many times favorite of the day loses 3 straight times but worth looking in to.

Have a good night and Good Luck tomorrow.
JMD

[slapshot]

i'll try to answer the questions to the best of my ability.

"Biggest Bet you would of had to make?"
i don't keep track of how much i have risked on each bet throughout the years. i believe i have risked 12-15 units.....this year i could i have had a bet where i risked more but i chosed to spread the risk on more days/bets and bet to win 5 units per game.

"worst Season in terms of units made / loss"
playing from day 1 to last day of regular season...worst season was 2011 with +81 units

"average amount of units made each season."
90.3

"I know you stated never has lost more then 6 days in a row do you know how many times you could just skip A-B-C and wager on D-E-F?"
i'm not sure if i understand the question.....roughly 66% of all plays are A level bets
if you skip A-B-C level bets you skipping around 90% of all plays.

"Then this system would be undefeated right?"
it depends how you define a loss...if you say a loss is a 5 game losing streak then we've had several losses.
but they way i play the system i will use time to my advantage...even if i had 6 game losing streak i would play to get it back....just spread the losses out on more days....long term i know the system hits 50%.

[slapshot]

13-9-10 -1.47 units
wins-losses-pushes

monday
philly......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
st louis......-1 to win 5 units**win**

[J.M. Disciple]

Philly line continues to drop... wait on it to get a good price.. from -195 to -170 already.

[slapshot]

13-10-10 -7.82 units
wins-losses-pushes

tuesday
detroit......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
philly......-1 to win 5 units**loss**

[J.M. Disciple]

I think I might be getting systems mixed up. What is the average units made following this system? 70units?

Anyone have labby #s? Are they roughly the same?

I think on3's home game chase is similar in units but has a lot more plays....

[J.M. Disciple]

slapshot I am still unsure if this has been answered yet, but do you have #s on A-B-C-D-E-F and what percent each has been winning at? I think it got ignored so I will start back testing soon. My theory is to wait for A -B-C to lose then start a new series with a very strong unit size since favorite has never lost 6 straight days in 6 seasons.

[J.M. Disciple]

Hows everyone labby doing so far over this bad run?

Anyone care to share amount of units in play? percentage of bankroll they start with on their labby line and how many #s they have on their line.

I am looking to do a more serious back test soon through out this week cause many systems are falling apart right now and my bankroll has took a huge hit.

Kinda looking for some good advice so I can rebuild. I know with out a shout of a doubt I will go bust if i keep the same unit size. With all the losses I have taken this week with the 3 things im following I made a huge mistake of using a percentage for a unit size instead of keeping it stagnent. Did not allow me to have a nice cushion for bad Runs like this....


so please share whatever you can so I can get on my back test as soon as possible.

Thanks
JMD

[dlunc3]

slapshot I am still unsure if this has been answered yet, but do you have #s on A-B-C-D-E-F and what percent each has been winning at? I think it got ignored so I will start back testing soon. My theory is to wait for A -B-C to lose then start a new series with a very strong unit size since favorite has never lost 6 straight days in 6 seasons.

I would be careful here JM... this system is not like most other chase systems that chase the same team for 3 games or so. In this system, every bet is completely independent, and has nothing to do with the other bets in the system. Each game has the exact same strength as the others, as we are playing a new team every day. It is not like say Morrisons system, where we chase the same team for 3 games, and we know the A and B losses actually can factor in to what happens on a C bet.

[stevex]

Playing 3 systems this year for the entire MLB regular season...

on3
ShutOut
Integrity

I amassed a decent sized bankroll from NBA and lets just say I'm still only betting between $10 and $20. The MLB season is not like the other sports, it spans over the course of 5 months so you MUST implement sound money management to be able to get over the huge swings.

[J.M. Disciple]

I would be careful here JM... this system is not like most other chase systems that chase the same team for 3 games or so. In this system, every bet is completely independent, and has nothing to do with the other bets in the system. Each game has the exact same strength as the others, as we are playing a new team every day. It is not like say Morrisons system, where we chase the same team for 3 games, and we know the A and B losses actually can factor in to what happens on a C bet.

I believe on3 home game chase had about 60% win rate for A - B - C on each level as well. How ever with this system I do not believe it has had a losing year. Where has 2007 for Home game Chase lost around 70 units and evne with the labby you would of lost money.

I am going to try and break my back test down to A-F Bets based on a 6 game chase to see how the biggest favorite of the day fairs. I know over 6 seasons F has never lost but does not come up often either. Going to be very tedious testing different methods from ML bets to -1RL bets. From chase bets to Labby bets. When its all said and done though I know I will have a sound system to follow and then it just comes down to discipline and patience.

For the time being I am probably going to take a break and breath. Atari has had some very good bets but has been on the losing side as well this past week. With this system losing, atari losing, and home game chase losing I have dropped 75% of my roll. I will probably spend about a week back testing and then get back at it.

I am curious to how this system fairs in NHL as well. Basketball we have some very solid cappers so do not really have to worry about back testing that much with all of wallco's and JM knowledge out there. Just comes down to what unit size you use.

I will continue to follow Atari for NBA next season as well as some of wallco's systems. I just hate some of the juice he lays down.

Thanks for the advice though Dlunc, I really do appreciate it. I am going to make sure I am extremely careful going forward with sports bets. I am not here to get rich quick so I can take some time off with out rushing. Sports bets are not paying my bills so taking time off and back testing some things is probably the best way.

Thanks
JMD

[J.M. Disciple]

Nice win on detroit today. Glad I could win something.

[slapshot]

slapshot I am still unsure if this has been answered yet, but do you have #s on A-B-C-D-E-F and what percent each has been winning at? I think it got ignored so I will start back testing soon. My theory is to wait for A -B-C to lose then start a new series with a very strong unit size since favorite has never lost 6 straight days in 6 seasons.

did you read post 263?
if you skip a-b-c level bets you are cutting 90% of the games from april all the way through september. you will be playing roughly 18 games a season.

[slapshot]

14-10-10 -2.82 units
wins-losses-pushes

wednesday
philly......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
detroit......-1 to win 5 units**win**

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks Slapshot. Sorry I skipped over 263 apparently, so I must of been in such a hurry or had a clouded head from losing most of my bankroll over the last two weeks. Appreciate the effort you put into the system.

I do have 1 more concern though. After you lose A-B-C you split your losses and bet to win 5 units on the following series. For those series that do go all the way to F your betting to win 5 units and chasing A-B-C at (-164) odds?

A:1.64units to win 1 unit
B: 4.33 units to win 2.64 units
C: 11.43 to win 6.97

total risk based on (-164 odds): 17.4 units to win 1 unit

Then on your next series your betting to win 5 units so basically (17.4 x 5) makes total risk 87 units! I am not sure if i am doing this right, but it does appear you can go bust like this.

Say
A Lose
B Lose
C Lose
Total Loss 18 units (aprox)

next series
A: win +5 units

next series
A: lose
B: lose
C: Lose

BUSTO?

You see my concern here? It will be a little different for labby players and a smaller unit size of maybe .5% instead of 1% would be better. I just want to make sure I do not go bust long run with this system so figuring out everything before I jump back in.

Thanks
JMD

[stevex]

J.M. I feel like every time you type an essay in one of these system threads I become dumber after reading it. What's so hard to understand about a labby?

[J.M. Disciple]

J.M. I feel like every time you type an essay in one of these system threads I become dumber after reading it. What's so hard to understand about a labby?

Maybe you are dumb because in my entire post I did not say anything about not understanding the labby.

My entire post was about martingale pretty much. After you lose a 3 game series and divide the loss then chase the next 3 game series at (1% = 1 unit) for 5 units starting with A if the next 3 game series loses you have a very big chance of going bust. The numbers are all in my post I suggest you reread my post and stop critcizing.

You see me mention labby one time in my post and think my entire post is about the labby?

[slapshot]

Thanks Slapshot. Sorry I skipped over 263 apparently, so I must of been in such a hurry or had a clouded head from losing most of my bankroll over the last two weeks. Appreciate the effort you put into the system.

I do have 1 more concern though. After you lose A-B-C you split your losses and bet to win 5 units on the following series. For those series that do go all the way to F your betting to win 5 units and chasing A-B-C at (-164) odds?

A:1.64units to win 1 unit
B: 4.33 units to win 2.64 units
C: 11.43 to win 6.97

total risk based on (-164 odds): 17.4 units to win 1 unit

Then on your next series your betting to win 5 units so basically (17.4 x 5) makes total risk 87 units! I am not sure if i am doing this right, but it does appear you can go bust like this.

Say
A Lose
B Lose
C Lose
Total Loss 18 units (aprox)

next series
A: win +5 units

next series
A: lose
B: lose
C: Lose

BUSTO?

You see my concern here? It will be a little different for labby players and a smaller unit size of maybe .5% instead of 1% would be better. I just want to make sure I do not go bust long run with this system so figuring out everything before I jump back in.

Thanks
JMD

if you lost 17.4 after 3 straight losses. you split that up in 4 parts --> 4.35 + 1 unit profit
game 4 is to win 5.35.

due this bad stretch we're seeing right now...starting with 4 straight losses and continued poor play of the biggest favorite.....2 wins on 11 days lead me to decide not to continue the chase and risk a large portion of the bankroll on one single bet. but to buy more time and bet to win 5 units per bet.

like i wrote in the first post.....your unit size should be 1% of your starting bankroll. those 100 units you have should be enough to wait bad stretches out. right now we're down about 10 units and it will take an unrealistic bad run from here to lose the remaining 90 units.

[slapshot]

14-11-10 -9.22 units
wins-losses-pushes

thursday
washington......-1 to win 5 units

yesterday
philly......-1 to win 5 units**lose**