system integrity 2012

[slapshot]

4-2-3 +4 units
wins-losses-pushes

saturday
st louis......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet
early start

yesterday
miami......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet**push**

[boroguy14]

Cards should bounce back after getting pounded yesterday! Let's get it!

[imzdeals]

nice win today!

[slapshot]

5-2-3 +5 units
wins-losses-pushes

sunday
los angeles dodgers......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet

yesterday
st louis......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet**win**

[DustyDiamond]

Looking like Washington today

[slapshot]

5-2-4 +5 units
wins-losses-pushes

monday
washington......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet

yesterday
los angeles dodgers......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet**push**

[slapshot]

6-2-4 +6 units
wins-losses-pushes

tuesday
new york yankees......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet

yesterday
washington......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet**win**

[DustyDiamond]

slapshot, are you running the system as a 4 game chase or the original 6 game chase?

[CrazyCarl]

slapshot, are you running the system as a 4 game chase or the original 6 game chase?

In the first post:

losing streaks
i will deal with losing streaks slightly different compared to last year.

if we have a 3 game losing streak I will split the total up in 4 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 4 game losing streak I will split the total up in 5 parts and chase each part back at a time.

if we have a 5 game losing streak I will split the total up in 6 parts and chase each part back at a time.

the system has never had a 6 game losing streak based on the 6 years i have in the database.

[slapshot]

playing the chase like described above....you would have had zero losses last 6 seasons.....and you wouldn't have risked the entire bankroll anytime to keep the system going with a 1% unit size of the starting bankroll.

[Teamprofit101]

Nice win on Yankees tonight.

This system is doing awesome and it's helping my bankroll because i took a really bad hit with the other system, so i had to take a break from it.

I even worked out my own system; testing it right now.

slapshot, let me know if your interested in testing some ideas with me..

[CrazyCarl]

Nice win on Yankees tonight.

This system is doing awesome and it's helping my bankroll because i took a really bad hit with the other system, so i had to take a break from it.

I even worked out my own system; testing it right now.

slapshot, let me know if your interested in testing some ideas with me..

Be sure to test the performance of a system for several years before risking money on it. When systems go wrong, they can go REALLY WRONG.

[Teamprofit101]

Be sure to test the performance of a system for several years before risking money on it. When systems go wrong, they can go REALLY WRONG.

Thanks for the tip... Im getting so excited because it's doing good this year lol

it's hard to test these things..i don't mind sharing what i have found. Send me an email to this username(sbr username) at gmail if you are interested in helping me backtest it.

[J.M. Disciple]

Funny I found this thread. I was testing this system from last year and this year as well. I did notice it hits around 50% winning % and some pushes in there. I am glad I found this thread so i did not have to fully back test this. Great Thread!!! \

I am curious to how some of you are running your labby line for this system. -1 usually has some pretty nice odds and I often discuss the labby in many forums, so im well educated on the matter. Here are some ideas for the labby:

Traditional 2 strike labby
10-10-10-10
If you lose add loss to end of the line and average out your numbers. If you win cross off two #s.

Agressive labby:
10-10-10-10
average out your numbers after each day if you win keep the same 4#s and average the loss over those 4 #s that way you it only takes 2 wins to clear your line for +2 units. Which brings me to my next question.

This system has suffered 5 game losing streaks, but how often do these occur? Also Kinda curious to what percent of bankroll you should put on your labby line for this system. Most labby players play 2% as their starting line with a 2 strike method. Since this system does not suffer too many large losing streaks given the odds, im curious to what the biggest bet was last season.

maybe 4% on your starting labby line would be better?

[CrazyCarl]

Slapshot said that in a worst case scenario 30 units would be possible, but I think 20 or so was the highest it got in the last couple of years. But Slapshot would be better off to confirm that than me.

I'm running this at 1% of my roll (twice as much as the .05% I'm running in on3's thread) and plan to chase it the same way slapshot does, which is a martingale and then splitting it up if you're on a 3 game losing streak. So far this season, there has not been a back-to-back loss in this system. To me, at a single play per day and with such a high chance for a push, a labby would be too slow with this system. Also, since we're taking huge favorites here a long losing streak is extremely unlikely. So I have no problem running martingale here.

Given that both of those systems like to bet heavy home favorites, I've doubled up on teams a few times (such as the Yankees tonight) -- luckily it has gone the right way so far but it could eventually lead to quite a bad night. But hey, not necessarily playing day-by-day.

[J.M. Disciple]

Might throw in a few filters to maximize profits. If biggest favorite is -200 or more play for 2 units? If biggest favorite is playing a team under .500 play for 2units?

just a thought.

[J.M. Disciple]

4/05/2012 Philly -1 Push
4/06/2012 LAA -1 Win
4/07/2012 LAA -1 Lose
4/08/2012 Tex -1 Win
4/9 Tex -1 Win
4/10 Tex -1 Push
4/11 Tex -1 Lose
4/12 Tex -1 Win
4/13 Mia -1 push
4/14 STL -1 Win
4/15 LAD -1 Push
4/16 Was -1 Win
4/17 NYY -1 WIn

win-loss-push
7-2-4


Wallco's 1-3-5 might be fantastic for this system. We need some of the back testing gurus to test some of these strategies on this great and simple system.

win-loss-push
7-2-4

1-3-5 this year:
+11 units
*for information on this please see JM's NBA thread.
A: bet to win 1 unit
B: bet to win 4 units (1 unit loss + 3units profit)
C: bet to win (1A + 4B + 5 unit profit + (juice)) to win 10units

2 strike labby:
+5units

agressive labby:
+6units

Averaging the loss over 4#s and never adding a new number to your line using 2 strike

[CrazyCarl]

Do you know how far into the thread wallco's 1-3-5 is explained? That thread is a mess. I'd be willing to help backtest how successful it's been if it looks promising.

[J.M. Disciple]

Do you know how far into the thread wallco's 1-3-5 is explained? That thread is a mess. I'd be willing to help backtest how successful it's been if it looks promising.

do not know where it is in the thread. Some where around where they explained the 7/5 method. If you post at the end of the thread im sure wallco or limit could give you a post #.

I am not sure how many 3 games in a row losses this system has so no idea if it will work or not.

Do not over whelm yourself with back test. you seem to be offering help on a lot of back testing.

[J.M. Disciple]

4/19 Wednesday

yanks -1

[CrazyCarl]

I've offered help a few times, but never have actually done any of it, lol.

[J.M. Disciple]

Also want to note that some one else brought up running 2 labby lines.
1 for NL and one for AL. Are you playing 2 games a day with this? Also curious if this one hits 50% as well. This way could potential double the profits for this system.

[CrazyCarl]

Also want to note that some one else brought up running 2 labby lines.
1 for NL and one for AL. Are you playing 2 games a day with this? Also curious if this one hits 50% as well. This way could potential double the profits for this system.

The system calls for just one play a day (biggest favorite on a day with at least 3 games), but since it's only picking big favorites and selling a half point to risk the push, it may be just as successful, and able to get more plays, if you just play every game that has a line 180 or above or something like that.

[slapshot]

Nice win on Yankees tonight.

This system is doing awesome and it's helping my bankroll because i took a really bad hit with the other system, so i had to take a break from it.

I even worked out my own system; testing it right now.

slapshot, let me know if your interested in testing some ideas with me..

just pm me or post here what you want to test and i'll see if i can help.

[slapshot]

This system has suffered 5 game losing streaks, but how often do these occur? Also Kinda curious to what percent of bankroll you should put on your labby line for this system. Most labby players play 2% as their starting line with a 2 strike method. Since this system does not suffer too many large losing streaks given the odds, im curious to what the biggest bet was last season.

the system has suffered from a 5 game losing streak four times in the last six seasons.

one in the 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2011 season.

[slapshot]

7-2-4 +7 units
wins-losses-pushes

wednesday
new york yankees......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet

no line yet available on the detroit game but yanks should be our pick...i suggest waiting for the detroit line before placing the bet.

yesterday
new york yankees......-1 to win 1 unit.....'a' level bet**win**

[njb5572]

The 7/5 method is on page 55 of the JM board, I would suggest starting there and working your way back to the beginning, it shouldn't be too far off.

[J.M. Disciple]

5 game chase wouldn't that wipe out an entire bankroll at -164 odds?

[slapshot]

5 game chase wouldn't that wipe out an entire bankroll at -164 odds?

it might if the unit size is too big and if you play a straight chase.

but if you follow the chase pattern described in post #1 you will protect the bankroll.
the idea behind playing the chase i do is basically to split the loss up and win it back on several days.

the system has shown it can go ice cold for 5-10 days but from a wider perspective...30 days....the system always wins 13 or more games based on the data i have.

so what i'm trying to do is to take advantage of that "wider perspective" principle.

[darkmatter117]

So if there's a 3-game losing streak and you go to x/4+1, then you win the fourth game, don't you have to continue the x/4+1 until you win it three more times to get back your money from the losing streak? It seems like that could become difficult to monitor as you alternate between winning and losing streaks. What am I missing?

[J.M. Disciple]

Because of some losing streaks in this system what % of bankroll are you labby players doing for this system? I thought the juice would be a little lower and I currently am doing 2%, but I think I might drop down to 1% per labby line with 2 strike approach.

[Dom177]

The system calls for just one play a day (biggest favorite on a day with at least 3 games), but since it's only picking big favorites and selling a half point to risk the push, it may be just as successful, and able to get more plays, if you just play every game that has a line 180 or above or something like that.

I'm going to start doing more than just 1 play a day for the next few days and see where it ends up. Lately I've been doing 2 plays or so plus any others I like and haven't really lost any units, but several pushes in the last week. I'll keep track a little better for you guys if I can keep doing it.

[slapshot]

So if there's a 3-game losing streak and you go to x/4+1, then you win the fourth game, don't you have to continue the x/4+1 until you win it three more times to get back your money from the losing streak? It seems like that could become difficult to monitor as you alternate between winning and losing streaks. What am I missing?

you got the hang of it.....difficult monitoring wins and losses?? are you kidding me...that's a walk in the park.
tough thing is to win games.

[J.M. Disciple]

For those of you who followed this system before, what was the biggest wager you had to make using a labby? I am trying to figure out if 2% is a safe to start on my labby line or if I can go bigger or decrease smaller.

Please help...

Maybe I should ask what was the worst streak? Say it lost 5 games in a row, then after that It lost 4 straight going 1-10... Has this ever happened?

[slapshot]

this the worst run.....from june 2009. 14 days......3-10-1
after this stretch the system won 4 straight
lost
lost
lost
lost
push
lost
won
lost
lost
won
lost
lost
won
lost