2012 MLB Season with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

10* Philadelphia - per the article - won last night. Was the ONLY play. I apologize for not getting to the thread, but I have had some personal family emergencies to attend to. It has been a rough week, but all is now good and I appreciate your patience with me over the least five days.

I hope everyone has read the NL and AL betting reports, the starting pitcher betting report and the weekend betting ticket articles posted this week. This are all qualified plays... I will get an updated record through games of today sometime tomorrow night.

[John Ryan]

Saturday action:

5* graded play Philadelphia with Worley -110 against Baltimore.
5* Boston playing against Gio Gonzalez. +104.
5* Dodgers with Kershaw - 128
5* UNDER 9 -110 Philadelphia/Baltimore

5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Baltimore in Game 2 of this three-game interleague series. Phils held on to get a much needed win stopping a six game losing streak last night. The simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will make it two straight today. Baltimore is in the midst of a very tough stretch of games that will more than likely drop them from first place in the AL East. Philadelphia has been a different team away from Citizen’s Bank Park where they are just 12-19 on the season. They and Atlanta have the best road win percentage in the NL and for good reasons. Orioles Tommy Hunter got off to a great start, but he has suffered through his last three starts posting a 6.75 ERA with a 1.625 WHIP. Worley came back from the DL and went a programmed four innings in a 4-3 loss to the Dodgers Monday. he will be stretched in this game and I fully believe he will complete a minimum of 6 ½ innings. Hunter has given up 13 home runs in 58 innings of work and the Phillies can exploit him with their makeshift lineup that ranks fourth in MLB with a .267 batting average. Take Philadelphia.

[John Ryan]

Easy, budddy. If you don't like Mr Ryan's work, just stay away, please. His insight and observations ARE appreciated by many.

No need to bash other posters in Mr Ryan's thread, as well. Good luck all.

Thanks for the positive comments and reality that sometimes the best laid plans do not work. As I mentioned tough, I am still 100% confident that the plays will turn around in a huge way and if there was ever a time to TAIL me, it would be now, after a horrendous stretch. however, what normally happens, is that the majority of people start tailing me after a sustained winning streak. You and I both know, that streaks come and go often and that honestly, the best time to tail my work is when the bandwagon has plenty of empty seats..

[jbizzle]

Im with ya JR let's do this! Been doing pretty good lately with mostly intuition picks and some of yours as well. Ready for a big winning streak!

[spippen]

This guys picks are brutal another losing thread

Don't worry, JR says the streak will turn around and that the time to tail is NOW. All streaks change. What is the record to date? Is it really as bad as these posts allude too?

[John Ryan]

Don't worry, JR says the streak will turn around and that the time to tail is NOW. All streaks change. What is the record to date? Is it really as bad as these posts allude too?

yes, I will admit, the record is poor and I will post the updated record hopefully later today or tonight. In the meantime.....

[John Ryan]

10* Philadelphia with Cliff Lee - 145
10* Chicago Cubs - yep the Cubs - + 130
5* Boston with Lester -155

[Swinging Johnson]

Don't let the bastards get you down Johnny. They think it's tough having to lose a bet and worry about the money. How about adding to that an entire forum scrutinizing every decision and ridiculing every loss?

I know you'll turn it around and even if this year proves to be disastrous, at least you had the balls to continue posting without stooping to the level of your detractors. That's called character.

[jbizzle]

Love the plays today JR!

[spippen]

Great call with the Cubs John.

[TidesRoln]

Don't let the bastards get you down Johnny. They think it's tough having to lose a bet and worry about the money. How about adding to that an entire forum scrutinizing every decision and ridiculing every loss?

I know you'll turn it around and even if this year proves to be disastrous, at least you had the balls to continue posting without stooping to the level of your detractors. That's called character.

"character" just dropped another 9.2 units today, thus clearing the negative 200 units mark for the year. If the guy is going to get top billing in the baseball forum, the noobs need to be warned so as to not fall for his write-up scheme (dazzling the unsuspecting with useless stats going back 15 years) and then go to his website and actually "pay" for his picks.

Were he a wise sports investor; he would can the star betting system (proven failure) and flat bet; as in same amount each bet. The star system was initiated by crooks in the sports service industry to charge clients more money for their worthless picks. Never has worked, never will.

[Swinging Johnson]

"character" just dropped another 9.2 units today, thus clearing the negative 200 units mark for the year. If the guy is going to get top billing in the baseball forum, the noobs need to be warned so as to not fall for his write-up scheme (dazzling the unsuspecting with useless stats going back 15 years) and then go to his website and actually "pay" for his picks.

Were he a wise sports investor; he would can the star betting system (proven failure) and flat bet; as in same amount each bet. The star system was initiated by crooks in the sports service industry to charge clients more money for their worthless picks. Never has worked, never will.

I disagree..and I don't charge for my picks. http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball...ingin-a-25218/

[JJJ]

I disagree..and I don't charge for my picks. http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball...ingin-a-25218/

were not talking about your picks we are talking about John Ryans picks thats why we are in John Ryans baseball thread

[Swinging Johnson]

were not talking about your picks we are talking about John Ryans picks thats why we are in John Ryans baseball thread

I'm taking issue with something he said and providing support to my argument. This was him talking about a methodology which is what I commented on so relax Triple J. I'm not whoring here. I've always been a big John Ryan supporter as evidenced by the post he disagreed with.

[JJJ]

I know your not working I have seen your threads your doing very well keep up the good work

[balls2wall]

LOL

I can't help but think of the wackos from that church that protest soldiers funerals.

The man is buried and the same few still stop by regularly to bash the man.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

I'm a huge JR supporter as well and have tailed him and watched his videos during football season, I believe he is a more than capable handicapper. However this baseball season John has made a cardinal sin and you should know better. This thread would be close to even without your unnatural bias to want to take the Phillies everyday. I have no idea what you see in this club or what your model isnt taking into account. The steam that hits them daily is always worth hedging because almost all of vegas is fading them daily. I did the work before the WSOP of keeping track of the thread and you were down something like 80 units on just this team. I'm unsure if you are from Philly, love their staff, you cannot love that bullpen, the coach is the oldest and makes terrible decisions and they have no power in the lineup that scares any staff in baseball.

With this said you are a tremendous capper and I respect the heck out of anyone who puts this much effort into wagering. You have always been tremendous with totals and last year you were good with underdogs mostly. This year you havent played much, if any totals and every other day you take a -150 or higher and almost always it's on the phils. I personally cant wait for college football and have been doing 3 hours a day of research. Can't wait to hear all your thoughts throughout the season and here's to you turning it around in bases.
Cheers

[Inkwell77]

He is a good handicapper but he jumps on certain useless trends with multiple parameters. Baseball does not seem like his sport. I would love to see his database and use it

[John Ryan]

so, hold your breath,, 20* Atlanta Braves plus 105

research report is on the site.

[John Ryan]

20* graded play on the Atlanta Braves as they host the New York Yankees in the first of a three-game interleague matchup set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Over the past 10 games, the Atlanta Braves have gone 8-2, but still trail the Washington Nationals by two games in National League East division standings. The Braves have the best road record in the NL at 20-14 and I believe they will improve on their current 14-12 home record during this six game home stand.

Yankees are coming off a subway sweep of their city rival Mets and I believe they will come into this game and series a bit flat from the emotional weekend play. Generally, the time to play against the Yankees is after a series win over the Mets or the Boston Red Sox.

Team Rankings
These two teams rank very close in my team rankings. but again, the public always inflates games played by the Yankees of obvious reason. This game, however is one to get on the home dog and play against the public.

The Braves and Yankees rank sixth and fifth in highest win percentage and seventh and eighth in runs scored per game in MLB, respectively.

The Braves rank 12th in MLB with a .259 team batting average, 10th averaging 24.27 at-bats per game, eighth with 2,304 plate appearances, 11th averaging 8.87 hits per game, 12th averaging 1.02 home runs per game, and ninth averaging 3.38 walks per game. The Yankees, by comparison, rank sixth with a .265 team batting average, 27th with 2,218 plate appearances, fifth averaging 9.00 hits per game, first averaging 1.55 home runs per game, and sixth averaging 3.50 walks per game.

The Braves rank 19th with a team ERA of 4.08 in MLB, 27th with 25 quality starts, 18th sporting a 1.33 WHIP, and 16th posting a .255 opponent batting average. The Yankees rank 11th in MLB with a 3.85 ERA, 22nd with 29 quality starts, 15th with a 1.31 WHIP, and 20th allowing a .259 opponent batting average. These team rankings serve to provide a brief background of the strengths and weakness of each team and provide a handicapping foundation for any style of research.

[John Ryan]

Novo
I wonder if Cliff Lee ever gets just a tad envious of a pitcher like Novo., who is 7-2 with a highly suspect 5.09 ERA and 1.472 WHIP. Novo’s ERA ranks 40th best in the AL. The Philadelphia Phillies Lee is winless in 10 starts with a 3.18 ERA that ranks 20th best in the NL.

Novo is coming off an eight inning 4-1 win over the Rays where he allowed just one earned run on four hits, walking one batter, while striking out five batters. The last time he pitched eight or more innings was in a 5-3 win at Cincinnati June 20, 2011, In the following start he went six innings and allowed four ER in a 6-4 win over Colorado June 26, 2011. When a pitcher gets stretched and pitches more than innings than their accustomed to completing and the pitch count moves higher than the norma, the next start is often not a quality one. Novo is not exception to this fact either.

Randall Delgado
Only two players, Raul Ibanez and Chris Stewart, on the current Yankees roster have ever faced Delgado. They each have two at-bats with no hits. The point is that scouting reports can help in preparing for a starter, but facing a starter with the elite ‘stiff’ that Delgado has in his arsenal for the first time is a far more difficult task.

Delgado is a 6-3 lanky right-handed starter that has an amazing changeup. He will throw fastball 71% on the first pitch and 66% of all pitches thrown. Hitters are batting just .238 on his fastball. His change is thrown 22% of all pitches and 18% on the first pitch of an at-bat. Hitters flail at this pitch to the tune of a .219 batting average. His change is even more devastating to left-handed batters where the speed and late breaking movement away to the lower portion of the strike zone have batters looking foolish at times.

Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 53-34 and has made 28.8 units per one unit wagered and has averaged a +118 dog play since 2006. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher after having won two of their last three games and in a game between teams sporting win percentages between 54% and 62% on the season.

Winning Game Situation
Atlanta pitchers have done well against power dominated teams like the Yankees. They sport an impressive 13-2 record and have made 11.7 units per one unit wagered using the money line when facing power teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game this season. Take the Braves as a 20* Titan Play.

[epr038]

One 250* play/win ends this nightmare. Grinding is for suckers, it just keeps the nostrils above water at best. Floyd Mayweather this bi*ch and Shoot for the stars!

[TidesRoln]

One 250* play/win ends this nightmare. Grinding is for suckers, it just keeps the nostrils above water at best. Floyd Mayweather this bi*ch and Shoot for the stars!

Let's do this! JR, give us a MEGA TITAN 250 star release!

[John Ryan]

Let's do this! JR, give us a MEGA TITAN 250 star release!

20* lost... do yourselves a favor and take a look at the last 18 months of plays in College Football and the NFl. That will certainly restore your faith. No one has ever had winning season in all sports for 10 years straight and neither have I.. But I can tell you that I will continue to put out these plays because I know over time, the methodology and my work does produce solid results.

[John Ryan]

5* Cincinnati Reds -157
5* Los Angeles Dodgers +105
5* Kansas City +142
5* OVER Oakland/Colorado 10 1/2 -110
5* Chicago Cubs + 132
5* Toronto Blue Jays -155
5* OVER Philadelphia-Minnesota 9 - 120
5* Atlanta Braves + 150

Now, for the second time tho season we will add a 3* round parlay involving the following three dogs: Chicago, Kansas City, and Atlanta. So, that THREE 2-team parlays with the Braves and Royals, Royals and Chicago, and Chicago and Atlanta for a 3* amount each.

Biggest card of the year from the sim and I honestly sweat on nights like this.. Many times too many plays is not good, but I have to follow what it shows. BOL to all and hopefully this will be a big night for all us.

[John Ryan]

I'm taking issue with something he said and providing support to my argument. This was him talking about a methodology which is what I commented on so relax Triple J. I'm not whoring here. I've always been a big John Ryan supporter as evidenced by the post he disagreed with.

And I have certainly been a big fan of the swinging Johnson!!!! Check out his threads to all. You will not be disappointed. You have trust any man bold enough to wear a bag over his head while wearing a $1000 Italian suit... right? Or maybe just not talk to him in public situations. Laugh

[John Ryan]

Just curious JR Whats the rationale behind putting 5* on the Philly moneyline w/ hamels and 10* on the run line? The moneyline could hit without the run line winning and at a price of -187.. wouldn't it make more sense for the 10* to be on the moneyline? A 5* wager at +130 runline would net even larger than a 10* at -187. What am i missing here? Regardless BOL

The projections for this play called for a Philly blowout.. so, the play was graded first as Run Line and then I added the 5* because the risk/reward profile was exceptional at the time. Of course, hindsight is always correct. Your assessment is also correct as well. That i need the blowout winner to ensure a profit on the day. Yet, the odds of a Philly one run win were less than the Phillies losing the game..

[John Ryan]

Don't let the bastards get you down Johnny. They think it's tough having to lose a bet and worry about the money. How about adding to that an entire forum scrutinizing every decision and ridiculing every loss?

I know you'll turn it around and even if this year proves to be disastrous, at least you had the balls to continue posting without stooping to the level of your detractors. That's called character.

Thanks my man... I'm about tready to buy a bag.. I know you may of a wholesaler? just kidding of course.

[John Ryan]

Great call with the Cubs John.

Thanks for the support.. I need it right now.. but the tide will turn.

[TidesRoln]

do yourselves a favor and take a look at the last 18 months of plays in College Football and the NFl. That will certainly restore your faith.

OK, I'm onboard; who do you like in the NFL and College Football tonight?

[John Ryan]

Bottomline
Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28
3* 0-6 -18
5* 65-65 -55.38
10* 8-19 -87.80
20* 1-2 -21.00
-173.90 units overall.

entering tonight's action of June 12, 2012 shown above.

[John Ryan]

OK, I'm onboard; who do you like in the NFL and College Football tonight?

Now, that is funny. I like your humor.. You are right. That sport is over and that success matters very little right now going through this abyss.

[whtsox13]

I'm on all those parlays. That was Chicago WhiteSox, not Cubs right??? Maybe you should specify if there are 2 teams in the same city...

[John Ryan]

I'm on all those parlays. That was Chicago WhiteSox, not Cubs right??? Maybe you should specify if there are 2 teams in the same city...

no Cubs check the line.

[John Ryan]

I'm on all those parlays. That was Chicago WhiteSox, not Cubs right??? Maybe you should specify if there are 2 teams in the same city...

Cubs.. I just never thought the CWS would be lined as a dog near what the Cubs were.. sorry, BUT it is the CUBS