2012 MLB Season with John Ryan

[JJJ]

5/10
5* 0-1 -5U
10* 1-1 +1.7U
net -3.3U

Overall 1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 22-29 -38.04U
10* 5-12 -54.35U
20* 0-1 -21U
-119.75 units overall.

I am glad your keeping record cause when he starts loosing ie (NBA, NCAA) thread he doesnt keep a record so this is a good thing

[jbizzle]

I would say that the majority of MLB doubleheaders are split, and according to the Elias Sports Bureau only about 25% of these series are swept. In that case, it is a good idea to bet the underdog both games. Since a lot of doubleheaders are split, I think in a case like the Orioles yesterday it would be better to bet the Orioles game 1, and if they lose bet them in game 2. If they win the first game, don't bet the second game.

Any thoughts?

I agree with this concept. I started to hedge my second game bet yesterday to take the full 10* profit from game 1 but didn't unfortunately.

[John Ryan]

I agree with this concept. I started to hedge my second game bet yesterday to take the full 10* profit from game 1 but didn't unfortunately.

No doubt this is quite true. However, the times where a winning record team is on the road and playing an losing record team, there is not much benefit in assuming the risk fo the home dog in both games. My intensions are to aim for both dogs to win so it will be extremely rare that you see me playing on these double headers.

I think a better method is play the home dog in the second game if they lost the first one.

[John Ryan]

for tonight.

I am starting a new category that hopefully Luminosity has seen. The Contrarian Betting Method will begin this weekend. These plays will be put into a separate category unto it's own. Read the articles - there are four of them produced this week - and if you have any questions just fire away here on the thread.

Friday's Contrarian Plays are:

5* Miami Marlins hosting the Mets starting tonight with 5* plays Saturday and Sunday. I will use a line that is available approx. one hour before game time. This will be listed here on the site.

I will also play a 5* amount on Colorado as they take on the Dodgers for the next three days. For Friday, Colorad is bet at +155.

For the Foundation Titan plays:
10* UNDER Cubs/Milwaukee 7 1/2 -10

Luminosity - if you can also keep a separate tally on Totals and Run Lines moving forward, it will be of great help to see which categories are contributing the most the bottom line. Not, that we will increase the weighting of any of the categories, but just FYI purposes.

[Luminosity]

I understand the contrarian plays, but do you mean bet those teams each separate game of each series?

[NBAStats]

Seriously another category? In true tout style start as many separate categories as you can, and hopefully a couple of subsets will become winners so that you can push them.

[JJJ]

Seriously another category? In true tout style start as many separate categories as you can, and hopefully a couple of subsets will become winners so that you can push them.

I agree there shouldnt be a seperate category a posted pick is a posted pick and should only count under YTD numbers which is -119.75 units no BS about seperate categorys one record only

[Luminosity]

I agree there shouldnt be a seperate category a posted pick is a posted pick and should only count under YTD numbers which is -119.75 units no BS about seperate categorys one record only

No worries, I will do subcategories, but I will also keep the YTD bottomline record at the very bottom

[John Ryan]

I understand the contrarian plays, but do you mean bet those teams each separate game of each series?

That is correct.. so, yesterday we went 1-1 with a Marlins win and a Rockies loss. Same two teams again today each for a 5* amount.

[John Ryan]

No worries, I will do subcategories, but I will also keep the YTD bottomline record at the very bottom

Thanks.. it is , as stated above, to show the results of the this method independent of anything else. There are going to be soe real eye-poppers from this methodology and I want to also, hopefully, show , that you can make significant profits hitting less than 50% winners.

Keeping a bottom line tally is obvious and thanks for your work. i am hoping that the powers at SBR can recognize your record keeping with a few bomus points!

[John Ryan]

Marlins -131 over the Mets as another of the 'Contrarian Plays'

The remainder fo the card is all tonight so I will be back late this afternoon with those picks.

The research report for the three plays can be found on the site. It may not be published yet..

But there is a 93% Winning system in there that supports Philadelphia tonight with Halladay.

[Luminosity]

5/11/12
Contrarian
5* 1-1 evenU


Titan Totals
10* 0-1 -11.5U

Titan Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 22-29 -38.04U
10* 5-13 -65.5U
20* 0-1 -21U
-119.75 units overall.

Bottomline
5*1-1 even
10* 0-1 -11.5U
net -11.5U

Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 23-30 -38.04U
10* 5-13 -65.5U
20* 0-1 -21U
-119.75 units overall.

[Luminosity]

Corrected record***
5/11/12

Contrarian
5* 1-1 even

Titan
Totals
10* 0-1 -11.5U

Titan Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 22-29 -38.04U
10* 5-13 -65.5U
20* 0-1 -21U
-130.9 units overall.

Bottomline
Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 23-30 -38.04U
10* 5-13 -54.35U
20* 0-1 -21U
-130.9 units overall.

[TidesRoln]

In figuring units won/lost, does -130.9 mean that a $100 a game bettor would be down $13,000?

[Luminosity]

No. He has 5, 10, 20 and 25 unit plays. The base play is 5* (5 units) If your base amount per game is $100, one unit would equal $20. With a $20 unit, you would be down $2,600 and change.

[cookie jar]

Can someone please explain to me how to figure out plays by unit? because to be honest, im not really understanding it, nor am i formiliar with money managemeent...... any feedback would help

[sta0g]

Lol

[Luminosity]

Can someone please explain to me how to figure out plays by unit? because to be honest, im not really understanding it, nor am i formiliar with money managemeent...... any feedback would help

Have you read the entire forum? This question has been answered already, but here are the basics for a decently conservative bankroll management:

Use .2% of your bankroll as 1 unit. That means you will be betting 1% of your roll for a 5 unit bet.
For example, a $10,000 bankroll would be bet in units of $20. A 5* play would be $100, 10* $200, 20* 400, 25* 500.

**If you have consistent income each week devoted to betting, you do not need your rules to be as conservative.

[JJJ]

[Eaglequill]

The contrarian plays are not starting out too good. Philly lost, Miami Lost, Colorado Lost.. I dont think the contrarian view is going to find much profit. I think its a fade list..

[Luminosity]

Contrarian
5* 0-2 -11.51U

Contrarian Overall
5* 1-3 -11.51U

Titan

5* 0-1 -10U

Totals Overall
10* 0-1 -11.5U

Titan Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 22-30 -48.04U
10* 5-13 -65.5U
20* 0-1 -21U
-140.9 units overall.

Bottomline
Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 23-33 -49.55U
10* 5-13 -54.35U
20* 0-1 -21U
-152.41 units overall.

[JJJ]

Lol -152 units thats funny as hell

[John Ryan]

Ok. For Sunday.

Contrarian plays are 5 star Colorado +128
5 star Miami -145 playing Mets.

10 star Anaheim +126.

[Luminosity]

BOL today

[The fiddler]

This thread needs to be retitled "how to piss away 100K in one baseball season betting nickels". Pete Rose picked em better than this.

[JJJ]

This thread needs to be retitled "how to piss away 100K in one baseball season betting nickels". Pete Rose picked em better than this.

[Inkwell77]

Guy is buried

[Luminosity]

Contrarian
5* 1-1 evenU

Contrarian Overall
5* 2-4 -11.51U

Titan

10* 0-1 -10U

Totals Overall
10* 0-1 -11.5U

Titan Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 22-30 -48.04U
10* 5-14 -75.5U
20* 0-1 -21U
-150.9 units overall.

Bottomline
Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 24-34 -49.55U
10* 5-14 -64.35U
20* 0-1 -21U
-162.41 units overall.

[Luminosity]

Where do you find the charts that show you the amount of money won/lost by certain pitchers?

[John Ryan]

Where do you find the charts that show you the amount of money won/lost by certain pitchers?

I will provide them on a weekly basis. The day-to-day net changes are minimal since starters only pitch every fifth or even 6th day and some will miss starts if they are the fifth pitcher in a rotation due to a day off.

[John Ryan]

Buried is about right. This is horrid. However, if there is one thing you will learn from this is that you must keep moving forward. We will have our big days and the 20* plays have not yet begun to appear (Thank good ness for that). But seriously, I take this whole approach with a humble attitude and the profits will return.

As a measure of hope and proof that I can make money in MLB scroll back on a search on this site and you will see some outstanding results from 2011.. But, that does little to help you now other than to show you that it does work.

[John Ryan]

5* Toronto -141
5* CWS over Detroit +119
5* Arizona and Arizona using the Run Line, - This line has crashed among some very large bets today. The line I got at the time of the article was Arizona +152 and Run Line +1 1/2 laying 165
5* OVER SD/Washington 7 +110

research on the Toronto and Arizona plays are up on the site.

[Luminosity]

Which plays from yesterday were contrarian and which weren't?

[Luminosity]

I'm liking the Braves w/ Hudson vs. Cueto at -120. Cueto is on the chart of top earning starters. Hudson is the braves ace, and the Braves have been on fire lately, but are coming off a a two-run loss to the reds after sweeping the Cardinals. Their bats should do pretty well tonight. -120 is a great price for this game.

I also like the cubs +165 against Lohse . Lohse is another top earning starter so far at +165, and the Cubs earned a 6-4 win yesterday against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak, though, so I haven't decided if I'm betting this game.

Any thoughts?

[John Ryan]

5* San Diego Padres starting at 1:00