2012 MLB Season with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

ok.. another good night last night per the articles released.

Tonight we will continue to fade Baltimore using the Rays and David Price -167 for a 5* graded play
Also, take San Diego +105 as a 5* graded play.

There will be some very big plays coming up over the weekend so stay tuned. I'd like to hear how everyone is doing and I will take over the record keeping moving forward. BOL

[jbizzle]

JR nice run you've been on this past week. What makes you like SD tonight? I'm taking tampa as a 10* tonight and I like Yankees and Rangers. Tempted to take Seattle too but probably won't. Any thoughts on either of these three teams tonight?

[jbizzle]

Any opinions on the Texas/Angel game over 7.5 today? Too great pitchers putting this line lower than it should be, with the rangers seeking to break their longest losing streak and the rivalry between the two I think this will hit.

[John Ryan]

Any opinions on the Texas/Angel game over 7.5 today? Too great pitchers putting this line lower than it should be, with the rangers seeking to break their longest losing streak and the rivalry between the two I think this will hit.

Just saw this .. I like your idea.. OVER would be my lean.

[John Ryan]

JR nice run you've been on this past week. What makes you like SD tonight? I'm taking tampa as a 10* tonight and I like Yankees and Rangers. Tempted to take Seattle too but probably won't. Any thoughts on either of these three teams tonight?

Thanks, I need top update the record. I lost Luinosity some how and I appreciate your comments. I do like Texas, I still cannot trust Yankees, who are fighting to just stay above .500.

[John Ryan]

last night we won both plays faint Baltimore again and wining 7-1 with the +105 Padres.

Take a 10* on Philadelphia and Hamels at -145 and a 5* on Tampa bay with Hellickson at -145.

I will get the record updated tomorrow - UNLESS someone wants to volunteer.

[The fiddler]

last night we won both plays faint Baltimore again and wining 7-1 with the +105 Padres.

Take a 10* on Philadelphia and Hamels at -145 and a 5* on Tampa bay with Hellickson at -145.

I will get the record updated tomorrow - UNLESS someone wants to volunteer.

No book in America had Hammels at -145 Try 155...which lost. Minus 15.5 units. Also, Tampa was minus 150 which also lost...minus 7.50 units for a net minus 23 units for Saturday.

[John Ryan]

No book in America had Hammels at -145 Try 155...which lost. Minus 15.5 units. Also, Tampa was minus 150 which also lost...minus 7.50 units for a net minus 23 units for Saturday.

At the time I booked this and looked at the lines, that was what i saw. I had always released this play in my article Friday before the line even came out and had you played the opening line it would have been very close to the numbers I stated. What do I gain by 1.50 units more in losses or gains by posting unrealistic lines. This is the first anyone has ever mentioned something like this, but I will adjust it accordingly.

[John Ryan]

5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the finale of a three game set. The Orioles finally stopped the bleeding of a six game losing streak getting a huge win Saturday. Somehow, they have managed to stay tied with the Ryans for first place in the East despite a 3-7 record spanning their last 10 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-8 for 83% winners since 2006. Play on road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a struggling starting pitcher posting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last five starts and with a recently struggling hitting team batting .225 or worse over their last five games. Baltimore is just 46-106 losing 46.2 units per one unit wagered against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a five game span since 1997; 14-44 losing 23.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line in road games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games spanning the last three seasons. Orioles starter Jake Arrieta was hammered in his last start allowing six earned runs over just 4 ⅓ innings in a 8-6 loss to Toronto. Over his last three starts he has posted a 5.82 ERA with a 1.588 WHIP and his team record in these starts is just 1-2. Matt Moore will start for the Rays and is in solid form coming off a seven inning, two ER, 1 walk, 10 K’s outing. The Rays lost though 2-1 against the CWS. He has posted a 3.57 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP, striking out 24 batters in 17 ⅔ innings of work spanning his last three starts. Take Tampa Bay.

I have a line of Tampa bay -154 for this game.


Bottomline
Overall
1* 1-1 +8.28U
3* 0-6 -18U
5* 48-52 -45.74U
10* 6-16 -79.85U
20* 1-1 -1U
-136.31 units overall.

[John Ryan]

I also like a 5* Run Line play using Anaheim - 1 1/2 +190. The line has moved and has changed to +1 1/2 at more than half of the books, but I am still seeing the -1 1/2 offered at several spots.

[malaworld]

I also like a 5* Run Line play using Anaheim - 1 1/2 +190. The line has moved and has changed to +1 1/2 at more than half of the books, but I am still seeing the -1 1/2 offered at several spots.

Just Got it at 5 dime

[John Ryan]

Just Got it at 5 dime

nice.. there are these rare situations where a given team is installed as a slight favorite and then money flows shift the line so that the Run Line goes to -1 1/2 from a +1 1/2 and if you liked the favorite to begin with and the flows are running against you, that is a very good sign. Plus, when you get paid +190 for any run, that is quite good and reflects the public sentiment on the flip side of the matchup.

[The fiddler]

At the time I booked this and looked at the lines, that was what i saw. I had always released this play in my article Friday before the line even came out and had you played the opening line it would have been very close to the numbers I stated. What do I gain by 1.50 units more in losses or gains by posting unrealistic lines. This is the first anyone has ever mentioned something like this, but I will adjust it accordingly.

Fair enough...and I am not picking on you on this thread. Last year, I lost about $35,000 betting baseball over a 2 month period. My bane was betting pitchers on the 5 inning line. You and others may find it hard to believe when I say this, but had the "5 inning line" been a "4 inning line", instead of losing 35K I would have won between 18 and 22K, Yes the fifth inning was absolutely astonishingly brutal....day after day after day after day. Winners turned into losers constantly in the fifth inning. Unreal. And I'm talking about 40/50 games like that each month.

I may appear to be a baseball troll, but I am not. This is a gambling site after all and people come here in hopes of winning. I don't believe anyone can win betting baseball unless they play one or two games per week..and get a little bit lucky. Most gamblers are action junkies and cannot bet a few games week. I know that I can't. As such, I don't bet baseball.

Now football is another story. Emotion/stats/motivation can be used for football and an action junkie can definitely win. I have won every year in football since 2001...with exception of last year...when the NFL playoffs pushed me into the red. That broke a 10 year winning streak.

Good luck....you will need it.....as baseball, IMHO, is a loser's paradigm.

[epr038]

nice.. there are these rare situations where a given team is installed as a slight favorite and then money flows shift the line so that the Run Line goes to -1 1/2 from a +1 1/2 and if you liked the favorite to begin with and the flows are running against you, that is a very good sign. Plus, when you get paid +190 for any run, that is quite good and reflects the public sentiment on the flip side of the matchup.

On almost all sites i use even if the line is a +1 1/2 for a team, you can still use a prop "alternate line" to reverse it to a -1 1/2... And usually for a really nice price. GL

[John Ryan]

for Monday we have a 5* on Texas... -124.. Thanks and the research for this play is on the MLB page.

http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball/free-picks/rangers-vs-a-s-mlb-picks-a-25139/

[jbizzle]

Glad to see your on this too, I'm putting a 10* on it and will chase if necessary to bank on Texas winning at least one of the 4 in the oakland series. Texas win yesterday ended their longest losing streak of the season, I don't see them giving up 4 in a row against Oakland after ended that losing streak.

[John Ryan]

5* graded play on the Washington Nationals as they take on the New York Mets set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. Starting Tuesday night, the Mets begin a difficult stretch of games. They are at the Washington Nationals for three games, then beginning Friday will visit Yankee Stadium for an inter-league three-game series Next Monday begins a three game set home versus Cincinnati followed by a three game set versus Baltimore and then host the Yankees for three games. For the Mets to go .500 during this stretch would be quite impressive, but not very likely. The matchup Tuesday night features the Mets sending Young (0-0) up against the Nationals Zimmerman (3-5). The line for this game opened with Washington installed as a -148 favorite and the line has peaked at -160 at some books. I recommend taking a 58 play on Washington Tuesday night and to get whatever line is offered from your service. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-13 making 22.9 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on any team that are struggling NL offensive teams scoring <=4.1 runs per game and are facing a team with a bad bullpen posting an ERA >=5.00 and after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits. Take the Washington Nationals.

[John Ryan]

I also like a 5* on Philadelphia with Lee -176

5* on Boston boxed with Lester - 165

Three favorites, which I never really am thrilled about, but they are valid plays.

Was Texas a bad call or what? I honestly was writing it and thinking how great Texas is and how poor Oakland is thinking that in no other sport can this sort of situation put egg on your face then in MLB.. and that is why baseball lovers love the game.

[cyanek99]

I also like a 5* on Philadelphia with Lee -176

5* on Boston boxed with Lester - 165

Three favorites, which I never really am thrilled about, but they are valid plays.

Was Texas a bad call or what? I honestly was writing it and thinking how great Texas is and how poor Oakland is thinking that in no other sport can this sort of situation put egg on your face then in MLB.. and that is why baseball lovers love the game.

I am confused, you recommend 10*play on Baltimore and 5* on Boston at the same time?

[John Ryan]

I am confused, you recommend 10*play on Baltimore and 5* on Boston at the same time?

no, where di you see a 10* on baltimore? i have been fading them for the past two weeks ?

[John Ryan]

5* San Diego going here at 6:35 per the research that has been up on the site all day.

Line is now +110

5* Washington Nationals -150

Chicago Cubs +185 as a 5* graded titan

BOL

[Dr Zaius]

no, where di you see a 10* on baltimore? i have been fading them for the past two weeks ?

On your 6/5 article posted on the MLB main screen the following is an excerpt:

"Tonight, the Orioles begin a three game set at Fenway and the Boston Red Sox. They have Hammel (6-2) going up against Jon Lester (3-4) and the current line has Boston installed as a -163 favorite. The line was opened at -145 and quickly moved to its current level with numerous ‘sharp’ bets taking place. Moreover, 65% of all bets being made are on the Orioles showing that the bandwagon still exists.
This is certainly to our favor and I recommend a 10* play on Baltimore for tonight."
However, from the context of the article it appears 'Baltimore' was a typo.

[John Ryan]

On your 6/5 article posted on the MLB main screen the following is an excerpt:

"Tonight, the Orioles begin a three game set at Fenway and the Boston Red Sox. They have Hammel (6-2) going up against Jon Lester (3-4) and the current line has Boston installed as a -163 favorite. The line was opened at -145 and quickly moved to its current level with numerous ‘sharp’ bets taking place. Moreover, 65% of all bets being made are on the Orioles showing that the bandwagon still exists.
This is certainly to our favor and I recommend a 10* play on Baltimore for tonight."
However, from the context of the article it appears 'Baltimore' was a typo.

Thank you for pointing this out and yes, it was clearly a typo..

[John Ryan]

5* play using Philadelphia and Hamels -187
10* play using Philadelphia and the Run Line -1 1/2 +130

5* Washington Nationals +119.

This concludes the early action.

[epr038]

Just curious JR Whats the rationale behind putting 5* on the Philly moneyline w/ hamels and 10* on the run line? The moneyline could hit without the run line winning and at a price of -187.. wouldn't it make more sense for the 10* to be on the moneyline? A 5* wager at +130 runline would net even larger than a 10* at -187. What am i missing here? Regardless BOL

[sta0g]

Just curious JR Whats the rationale behind putting 5* on the Philly moneyline w/ hamels and 10* on the run line? The moneyline could hit without the run line winning and at a price of -187.. wouldn't it make more sense for the 10* to be on the moneyline? A 5* wager at +130 runline would net even larger than a 10* at -187. What am i missing here? Regardless BOL

10* at -187 is risking 18.7 units to win 10.

[epr038]

So a 10* play there would actually be a 18.7* wager? I always assumed for a $20/unit player in that situation it would be.. $200 to win $113

[epr038]

It's 'to win' vs 'to risk' i just didn't know until now that he went with the latter

[TidesRoln]

5* play using Philadelphia and Hamels -187
10* play using Philadelphia and the Run Line -1 1/2 +130

5* Washington Nationals +119.

This concludes the early action.

After tallying up 3 more L's and going back to your last overall W/L units update on June 3rd; quick math shows you more than 180 units down. That sound about right?

[JJJ]

This guys picks are brutal another losing thread

[TidesRoln]

This guys picks are brutal another losing thread

I do not troll this thread, it's simply that his picks are like a car crash; you just have to look and see how bad the carnage is.

[The fiddler]

Down 20K fugging around betting nickels and dimes on baseball. JR is not the only one that sux at this. No coin is just as bad...if not worse.

[b1slickguy]

Down 20K fugging around betting nickels and dimes on baseball. JR is not the only one that sux at this. No coin is just as bad...if not worse.

Easy, budddy. If you don't like Mr Ryan's work, just stay away, please. His insight and observations ARE appreciated by many.

No need to bash other posters in Mr Ryan's thread, as well. Good luck all.

[JJJ]

could care less about his insights we want winners I go to espn.com for insights

[John Ryan]

10* at -187 is risking 18.7 units to win 10.

This is true and correct. Yes, the results have been far below my expectations. I will continue to move forward and I am sure that brighter days are on the horizon. They have always been. No need to trust my work, you will see at the end of the season. I have a lot of work ahead, but can fully tell you I am committed 100% each and everyday to this thread and will provide you with my best work always.