New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[Tommygunn]

Complimentary Selection for 8/22/2011

Take Atlanta W/Jurrjens over Chi Cubs W/Dempster NO PLAY if > -120

[Tommygunn]

No P/T plays today

[Romanov]

Wiz,

Is DET a possible play? I ask because I think Tampa Bay has won 5 in a row.

edit: also, hasn't atl dropped out as a play at this time?

[Formulawiz]

Wiz,

Is DET a possible play? I ask because I think Tampa Bay has won 5 in a row.

edit: also, hasn't atl dropped out as a play at this time?

Yes but DET won 3 in a row as well. I have been playing these situations the entire season.

Why would ATL drop out now

[Romanov]

Yes but DET won 3 in a row as well. I have been playing these situations the entire season. Why would ATL drop out now

On DET for 2% of the br.

As for ATL, what is their projected line? I see the cubbies are projected at +120. Pinny has Atl at -108. Most books have em in the teens. I just don't see the 25 cent differential.

[Romanov]

Are you playing atlanta?

[HoulihansTX]

Brew Crew GM1 looks like a solid play fellas.

EZ $$$$

[Aussiecapper101]

Treated myself to a rare bet on bases today, good stuff guys

Can't wait for football!!

[scratbandit]

wow incredible approach in your system plays for sure.

[Formulawiz]

No ML plays yesterday.

YTD 138-72, +52.5 Units

Yes I played ATL yesterday. It was Sportrends free play.

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

MIL?, LAD, LAA?

Keep an eye the ML movement.

[ShivaBowl]

08/22/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays
As of 06/01/11
105-82 +9.42 Units

08/23/11
H/A System Plays
NYY ½ Unit Play
LAD

[HoulihansTX]

August 23
Bullpen Projection System
Det 5.08
CWS 3.62
Cincy 3.22
StL 2.08
Pitt 1.19

No Play
Yanks np>-150 2.21
Philly np>-150 1.92
_______________________
TPR
StL 1.3
Brew 1.0

No Play
Yanks np>-150 1.9
Cleve np L2 1.1

[fataliz]

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140. MIL?, LAD, LAA? Keep an eye the ML movement.

formulam can i ask how did u get LAD as a play? i know the proj ML for St Louis is -105 and current ML is +107, wouldn't that be a 12 point difference only? and not the 25 as listed. tks..

[BrewMaster]

Record since 15May11: 197-176 (+18.1 units)

Scientific Approach 22Aug11:

KC
CIN
TEX
ATL
BAL
CWS

Filtered (ARZ)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

[Tommygunn]

Complimentary Selection for 8/23/2011

Take Washington W/Zimmerman over Arizona W/Kennedy NO PLAY if > -115

[Tommygunn]

Aug.23.11 P/T Plays

Atl
LAD

Filtered:

TB (Det W4)

NP>-150

[Formulawiz]

formulam can i ask how did u get LAD as a play? i know the proj ML for St Louis is -105 and current ML is +107, wouldn't that be a 12 point difference only? and not the 25 as listed. tks..

This morning LAD was -130. Thats why I tell you to look at the line 15 to 20 minutes prior to start of game

[Romanov]

I see LAD at -115 right now. If they climb to -120 theyll be a play?

[Tommygunn]

This morning LAD was -130. Thats why I tell you to look at the line 15 to 20 minutes prior to start of game

Then you calculate ML plays differently then sportstrends?

The only way sportrends would have LAD as a play is if STL was >+120.

All the plays on the sportrends ML page are based off the home team.

Their ex. "EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent."

It says nothing about who HOU and BOS are playing or about their opponents line.

So in this case it does not matter what LAD line is because they are the away team.

Do I not properly understand this system? Please let me know Wiz I would really like your interpretation.

Thanks,

TG - BOL

[fataliz]

yeah i guess i don't really get it. angels and rangers are both at -142 now. would that make them possible plays? if they go below -140?

[fataliz]

ok im sure TEX is a play now. P. ML is +100, now at -139. am i right formula?

[ShivaBowl]

Then you calculate ML plays differently then sportstrends? The only way sportrends would have LAD as a play is if STL was >+120. All the plays on the sportrends ML page are based off the home team. Their ex. "EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent." It says nothing about who HOU and BOS are playing or about their opponents line. So in this case it does not matter what LAD line is because they are the away team. Do I not properly understand this system? Please let me know Wiz I would really like your interpretation. Thanks, TG - BOL

TG, I think every M/L play is made by subtracting the home teams projected ML, from the actual ML. Which ever way you get a 25-cent overlay? Make sure you are basing you play from the HOME teams ML. The away team ML is to be ignored? And then apply the no play if > -140


Formulawiz, could you clear this up?
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

ok im sure TEX is a play now. P. ML is +100, now at -139. am i right formula?

Fataliz, how did you come up with TEX -139?
Thanks

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 1-0, +1.0 units. Both LAA & LAD fell out which were both winners.

YTD 139-72, +53.5 units

Plays later today.

[Formulawiz]

TG, I think every M/L play is made by subtracting the home teams projected ML, from the actual ML. Which ever way you get a 25-cent overlay? Make sure you are basing you play from the HOME teams ML. The away team ML is to be ignored? And then apply the no play if > -140


Formulawiz, could you clear this up?
Thanks

Guys its almost the end of the season and your asking the same questions over and over again. Look at MIL yesterday, the Proj ML was 100 which means if they lay -125 to -140 they would become the play. Just read Sportrends description I believe we are using it the same way. Of course the opposite would apply if PIT were laying -125 to -140. Always look at the filters as well.

[ShivaBowl]

Guys its almost the end of the season and your asking the same questions over and over again. Look at MIL yesterday, the Proj ML was 100 which means if they lay -125 to -140 they would become the play. Without reading Sportrends description I believe we are going opposite of Sportrends. Of course the opposite would apply if PIT were laying -125 to -140. Always look at the filters as well.

Sorry I dont mean to ask the same ? over and over again, I'm just tried of all the emails about the M/L System..
And how it hasn't had a losing week this year?
Which ever way you get a 25-cent overlay just make it a play, home team or away team. Done

Thanks, BOL

[Formulawiz]

Sorry I dont mean to ask the same ? over and over again, I'm just tried of all the emails about the M/L System..
And how it hasn't had a losing week this year?
Which ever way you get a 25-cent overlay just make it a play, home team or away team. Done

Thanks, BOL

The ML system since April 15th was on fire. I did not start using on this thread until mid May. We would be up another 20 units. The ML system is performing much better this year then last year. Next year I will start as soon as pitchers have completed > 20 Innings.

[`User]

For now . its means for Texas proj ML = 100 . But current lines is -160 . Big movement ahead . a play for that ?

[ShivaBowl]

The ML system since April 15th was on fire. I did not start using on this thread until mid May. We would be up another 20 units. The ML system is performing much better this year then last year. Next year I will start as soon as pitchers have completed > 20 Innings.

Yes it’s been hot all year $$ but could you just answer this question that I keep getting about the home team or away team M/L play?
Which ever way you get a 25-cent overlay just make it a play, home team or away team? EX LAD yesterday play if LAD > -130
Thanks for your time.

[HoulihansTX]

HoulihansTX; I would consider adding a new filter to BPR; Throw out any plays that come in with a rating of under 4.00? When I use BPR, I consider anything < 4.00 as a weak play. BOL

The BPR system is random, and I do not know if excluding plays with a rating under four would help performance.
I would have to backtest. If someone would like to do that, then sure. ASlthough I do not have the time at the moment.

[ShivaBowl]

The BPR system is random, and I do not know if excluding plays with a rating under four would help performance. I would have to backtest. If someone would like to do that, then sure. ASlthough I do not have the time at the moment.

I dont have the numbers right now but 4.00 > has been working for me.
Also; there’s an additional problem with BPR what is a win or a lose? If the BP is not used,
why should you take a loss or a win on a play?
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

The BPR system is random, and I do not know if excluding plays with a rating under four would help performance. I would have to backtest. If someone would like to do that, then sure. ASlthough I do not have the time at the moment.

I dont have the numbers right now but 4.00 > has been working for me. Also; there’s an additional problem with BPR what is a win or a lose? If the BP is not used, why should you take a loss or a win on a play? BOL

TX: I would not maintain a W/L record for BPR next year, why?
Because the BPR System should only be used as a tool along with your own handicapping.
I do not make a final decision on plays without checking with the BPR system.
BOL

[Romanov]

Shiva,

Looking back through the thread wiz's m/l plays that have also had an over 4 on the bpr have been great plays

i.e. plays I should've been betting 10% of my br on

[HoulihansTX]

March 26 - Current
Overall
(303-305) +7.82Units
__________________________
Filter: NP >-150

August 19
Bullpen Projection System
Brew 5.90 W (-130)
TX 3.40 W (-115)
Toronto 3.19 L (+100)
Boston 2.59 W (-120)
Philly 1.65 L (-135)
Tampa 1.12 W (-105)
Colo 1.07 L (-115)
_________________________
TPR
Overall
(107-111) -11.72Units
TX 1.5 W (-115)
Boston 1.3 W (-120)
Tampa 1.3 W (-105)
Colo 1.1 L (-115)
Cincy 1.0 W (-130)
Toronto 1.0 L (+100)

August 20
Bullpen Projection System
Brew 4.57 W (-110)
TX 2.89 L (-125)
Toronto 2.86 L (+130)
Boston 2.55 L (-120)
Cincy 1.73 L (+100)
Wash 1.58 L (+120)
Yanks 1.11 L (-135)
Det 1.04 W (-140)
______________________________
TPR
Yanks 2.2 L (-135)
TX 1.5 L (-125)
Boston 1.3 L (-120)
Cincy 1.0 L (+100)
Toronto 1.0 L (+130)

August 21

Bullpen System Projection
Brew 5.52 W (-125)
TX 3.00 L (-115)
Toronto 2.80 W (+110)
Colo 2.48 W (-115)
Cincy 1.86 W (-105)
________________________
TPR
TX 1.5 L (-115)
Cincy 1.0 W (-105)
Colo 1.0 W (-115)
Toronto 1.0 W (+110)

August 22

Bullpen Projection System
Brew(GM1) 2.47 W (-110)
________________________
TPR Brew(GM1) 1.1 W (-110)

August 23

Bullpen Projection System
Det 5.08 W (+185)
CWS 3.62 L (+140)
Cincy 3.22 W (-130)
StL 2.08 L (+100)
Pitt 1.19 L (+125)
_______________________
TPR
StL 1.3 L (+100)
Brew 1.0 W (-130)

March 26 - Current
Overall
(316-318) +7.35Units
__________________________
Filter: NP >-150

August 24
Bullpen Projection System
Det 4.64
Cincy 2.60
Cleve 1.73
Boston 1.21

No Play
Yanks np>-150 4.90
Philly np>-150 4.63
CWS np(Angels W2) 3.62
StL np L2 2.64
SF np(SD W2) 1.10
_________________________
TPR
Overall
(107-111) -11.72Units

Cleve 1.1

No Play
Yanks np>150 1.9
StL np L2 1.3
Brew np>-150 1.1