New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

Formulawiz · 08-29-11, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by steve3402

Hi Wiz,

Could you share how you calculate LAA as a play? I'm using a Projected ML of -120 for LAA giving a differential of 10 cents. Am I doing this the wrong way?

Thanks,

First of all the Pro ML is LAA -110, if the ML gets to -135 to -140 it becomes a play.

steve3402 · 08-29-11, 03:05 PM

Thanks Wiz. So the Projected ML is the same for both teams (one is negative and one is positive) without regard for any vig. Is that correct?

Tommygunn · 08-29-11, 04:38 PM

Complimentary Selection for 8/29/2011

Take LA Angels W/Pineiro*over Seattle W/Beavan NO PLAY if > -120

Tommygunn · 08-29-11, 04:45 PM

P/T Aug.29.11

No Plays

Filtered:

Det (>-150)

I will update full record later tonight.

Formulawiz · 08-30-11, 06:15 AM

Originally posted by steve3402

Thanks Wiz. So the Projected ML is the same for both teams (one is negative and one is positive) without regard for any vig. Is that correct?

NO, it means LAA should be a -110 fav.

Formulawiz · 08-30-11, 06:17 AM

ML plays went 1-0, +1.0 unit. Nice come back for HOU.

YTD 143-72, +57.5 units

Plays later today.

Formulawiz · 08-30-11, 06:43 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

NYM, LAD?, NYY?, CWS?

ShivaBowl · 08-30-11, 08:33 AM

08/29/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays
As of 06/01/11
110-85 +10.92Units

08/30/11
H/A System Plays
LAD
PHI, If > -200 ½ Unit Play

08/29/11
S/A System Plays Went 1-0
CLE –105 W
214-188 +25.99Units

08/30/11
S/A System Plays
NYY if < -150

Tommygunn · 08-30-11, 11:16 AM

Aug.25.11 P/T went 0-1 for -1.0 units. Start date 06/12.
70-50 +13.85 u.

Aug.26.11 P/T went 0-1 for -1.0 units. Start date 06/12.
70-51 +12.85 u.

Aug.27.11 P/T - No Plays

Aug.28.11 P/T went 1-1 for 0 units. Start date 06/12.
71-52 +12.85 u.

Aug.29.11 P/T - No Plays

Tommygunn · 08-30-11, 11:16 AM

Complimentary Selection for 8/30/2011

Take LA Dodgers W/Kuroda over San Diego W/Stauffer NO PLAY if > -135

Tommygunn · 08-30-11, 12:51 PM

P/T Aug.30.11

No Plays

HoulihansTX · 08-30-11, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

March 26 - Current
Overall
(325-330) +6.40Units

August 29
Bullpen Projection System
Angels 4.56 L (-125)
Cleve 2.19 L (-110)
Hou 1.93 W (-125
Cincy 1.92 L (+135)
Tampa 1.31 L (+135)
____________________
TPR
Overall
(121-123) -10.77Units

March 26 - Current
Overall
(326-334) +3.05Units

August 30
Bullpen Projection System
*Tampa* 4.35
Cincy 3.08
Cleve 1.83
Cubs 1.43

No Play
Angels np L2 5.36
Det np L2 2.33
Wash np L2 2.07

____________________
TPR
Overall
(121-123) -10.77Units

Cubs 1.1

No Play
Angels np L2 1.0

** Tampa has traveled from Toronto to Arlington, Texas, which is 1500 miles apart. You make your own assumption if that is a far distance. Though this play is official, no matter the result.

Also this is the Cubs first time making TPR, and BPR listings simultaneously. I'm going to fire away

ShivaBowl · 08-31-11, 07:21 AM

08/30/11
H/A System Plays Went 2-0
LAD –148 W
PHI –168 W
As of 06/01/11
112-85 +12.92Units

08/30/11
S/A System Plays Went 1-0
NYY -137 W
215-188 +26.99Units

Formulawiz · 08-31-11, 07:22 AM

ML plays went 1-1, -0.1 units

YTD 144-73, +57.4

Formulawiz · 08-31-11, 07:23 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

LAD?, TOR?, TEX, LAA?

Watch ML's.

ShivaBowl · 08-31-11, 07:31 AM

08/31/11
H/A System Plays
CLE
NYM
LAA

08/31/11
S/A System Plays
KC
CHC
TOR, if < -116
WAS, if > +125
NYM, if < -129
ARZ, if < -150
LAA, if < -120

Aussiecapper101 · 08-31-11, 08:21 AM

good luck boys, I'm investing today football is taking too long to get here

Formulawiz · 08-31-11, 10:18 AM

If I remember correctly we need to wait 3 weeks in football to make picks for the AI and FL&A systems. The True Power found in the sportrends software can be used immediately. Remember to stay away from small colleges.

Tommygunn · 08-31-11, 10:50 AM

Complimentary Selection for 8/31/2011

Take Texas W/Ogando over Tampa Bay W/Shields NO PLAY if > -125

BrewMaster · 08-31-11, 11:06 AM

Back from Vegas. Should be able to post plays tomorrow as long as I'm not crushed at work..

Thanks Shiva.

Tommygunn · 08-31-11, 11:15 AM

P/T Aug.31.11

NYM
LAA

NP if >-150

Tommygunn · 08-31-11, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

If I remember correctly we need to wait 3 weeks in football to make picks for the AI and FL&A systems. The True Power found in the sportrends software can be used immediately. Remember to stay away from small colleges.

Wiz/Shiva, let me know if you need any help with NCAA or NFL. I can take over a system for you guys if you'd like.

ShivaBowl · 08-31-11, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

** Tampa has traveled from Toronto to Arlington, Texas, which is 1500 miles apart. You make your own assumption if that is a far distance. Though this play is official, no matter the result. Also this is the Cubs first time making TPR, and BPR listings simultaneously. I'm going to fire away

Nice work TX: I was looking at TAM yesterday

Thanks $$$$

HoulihansTX · 08-31-11, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

March 26 - Current
Overall
(326-334) +3.05Units

August 30
Bullpen Projection System
*Tampa* 4.35 L (+110)
Cincy 3.08 L (+170)
Cleve 1.83 W (+105)
Cubs 1.43 W (+125)
____________________
TPR
Overall
(121-123) -10.77Units

Cubs 1.1 W (+125)

March 26 - Current
Overall
(328-336) +3.35Units

August 31
Bullpen Projection System
Angels 4.11
StL 2.84
Balty 2.66
Hou 2.55
Cleve 2.46
Mets 1.83

No Play
Tampa np L2 7.54
Det np>-150 5.30
Philly np>-150 1.25
____________________
TPR
Overall
(122-123) -9.52Units

Cubs (1/2U) 1.1
Angels 1.1
TX 1.0

Originally posted by BrewMaster

Back from Vegas. Should be able to post plays tomorrow as long as I'm not crushed at work.. Thanks Shiva.

Good to have you back. Where did you stay in Vegas?

steve3402 · 08-31-11, 12:23 PM

Hi Wiz,

Would you include NYM as a play? The Projected Line is +115 and the Current Line is -130?

Thanks

Tommygunn · 08-31-11, 12:24 PM

Shiva you need to clean out your PM box. You can't get anymore.

Ingram$ · 08-31-11, 12:31 PM

just checking for going forward.

Zion21 · 08-31-11, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Nice work TX: I was looking at TAM yesterday

Thanks $$$$

Should have jumped on that myself. Lesson learned I guess. :P

Formulawiz · 08-31-11, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by steve3402

Hi Wiz,

Would you include NYM as a play? The Projected Line is +115 and the Current Line is -130?

Thanks

Yes they are. Remember there was no line this morning when I posted. Thats why its important to check before the game starts.

BrewMaster · 08-31-11, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

March 26 - Current
Overall
(328-336) +3.35Units

August 31
Bullpen Projection System
Angels 4.11
StL 2.84
Balty 2.66
Hou 2.55
Cleve 2.46
Mets 1.83

No Play
Tampa np L2 7.54
Det np>-150 5.30
Philly np>-150 1.25
____________________
TPR
Overall
(122-123) -9.52Units

Cubs (1/2U) 1.1
Angels 1.1
TX 1.0
Good to have you back. Where did you stay in Vegas?

Thanks Houli... we stayed at the Flamingo. There were 20 of us there for a bachelor party. Have a friend there that hooked us up one night at the VooDoo club at the Rio. Second year in a row. It was sick!

I've been hung over for like 4 days. haha

Formulawiz · 09-01-11, 07:07 AM

ML system went 1-0, +1.0 unit

YTD 145-73, +58.4 units

Plays later today.

ShivaBowl · 09-01-11, 07:38 AM

08/31/11
H/A System Plays Went 2-1
CLE –127 W
NYM –135 W
LAA – 107 L
114-86 +13.85Units

08/31/11
S/A System Plays Went 1-3
KC No Play P/G
CHC +156 L
TOR, No play W
WAS, +125 L
NYM, No Play W
ARZ, -145 W
LAA, -107 L
216-191 +24.92Units

Formulawiz · 09-01-11, 07:53 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

NYM, TEX?

ShivaBowl · 09-01-11, 08:05 AM

09/01/11
H/A System Plays
BOS, if > -175 ½ Unit Play

09/01/11
S/A System Plays
TOR
PHI, If < -148
WAS, If > +187
LAA, If < -150

Good to have back BM, take S/A over on Saturday.
Thanks

steve3402 · 09-01-11, 08:44 AM

Wiz, do you see Oak as a play with a Projected ML of +135 and a Current ML of -105?

Thanks for your opinion.