New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[ShivaBowl]

Source: Sportrends
You would be hard pressed to find any successful professional handicapper who does not have a definable bankroll, a season game plan to achieve profits and a clear understanding of finding an edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a system or method for guiding you.

One of the reasons baseball is so profitable to an experienced sports handicapper, is that it’s filled with numerous statistics not found in any other sport. No other sport breaks it down with such detail indicating which teams struggle with offensive and defensive inconsistencies. Our system analysis will pinpoint when a team is starting to produce at a higher rate.

Baseball is terrific for the number of statistics that are tracked during each game and they can paint a detailed picture of what to expect from teams offensively and defensively nearly every game.

Here you will be getting the Key advice and Handicapping Insights you Need to Win?
Our systems provide alternative strategies strictly based on statistics.
There are No Hunches, No Guesswork, No Opinions, Just Facts.
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

[quote=Formulawiz;]
Shiva, Can you start up the new baseball thread. I will be tied up at work for sometime.
Let me know if you can Thanks[/quote]

No problem!
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

chinoloco,
Major League Baseball: Pitching and Team Overall Power Ratings

http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_mlb.htm

HoulihansTX,
Major League Baseball: Bullpen Projected Runs

http://www.sportrends.com/team_bullpens.htm

ShivaBowl,
Major League Baseball: Team Projected Runs

http://www.sportrends.com/team_sabermetrics.htm

BrewMaster
Major League Baseball: System Play Based on a Scientific Approach

http://www.sportrends.com/team_baseball_matchup.htm

Formulawiz
Major League Baseball: Projected Money Lines

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

[Formulawiz]

MLB plays for today
PIT, HOU, BOS, TEX
Check out the plays, still a little confused. I didnt look at the pitcher PR.

[BrewMaster]

SCIENTIFIC APPROACH: (1-2, -1.3 units)

Pittsburgh Pirates > +129
Texas Rangers < -170
Colorado Rockies < -175
St. Louis Cards < -175
Philadelphia Phillies < -175
Oakland Athletics < -123
Atlanta Braves < -116


Lots of favorites here. Could someone verify? Thanks.

Edit: Filtered 3 plays due to <20 IP (NYY, NYM, MWK)

[losemyloot]

Looking to tail but have no idea what you guys are doing in this thread. Whose picks should I be following? Do any of these systems have any past W/L records?

[ShivaBowl]

TPR Plays, based on early lines.
7:05 PM ET DET,
7:05 PM ET Red Sox
8:05 PM ET Cardinals, n/p if STL. >-140
9:40 PM ET Diamondbacks

[ShivaBowl]

SCIENTIFIC APPROACH: (1-2, -1.3 units) Pittsburgh Pirates > +129 Texas Rangers < -170 Colorado Rockies < -175 St. Louis Cards < -175 Philadelphia Phillies < -175 Oakland Athletics < -123 Atlanta Braves < -116 Lots of favorites here. Could someone verify? Thanks. Edit: Filtered 3 plays due to <20 IP (NYY, NYM, MWK)

I'm only going to check the plays you posted, I will check the rest later.
Start keeping a record as of today please, I dont have time to go back and look at all SA plays
from yesterday. Thanks
Good work, try posting them like this and without color.
thanks. gl

SA Plays,
PIT
TEX, play if TEX <-175
COL out..CHC, IP <-20
STL
PHI
OKA, play if OAK <-123
ANA IP <-20 ?
ATL, play if ATL <-116

[chinoloco]

4/26/11 MLB pitching and team power rating.
st louis cardinals, no play if greater than -130.
Phillies, no play if greater than -130.
Baltimore Orioles.
Tampa bay Rays.

[BrewMaster]

I'm only going to check the plays you posted, I will check the rest later.
Start keeping a record as of today please, I dont have time to go back and look at all SA plays
from yesterday. Thanks
Good work, try posting them like this and without color.
thanks. gl

SA Plays,
PIT
TEX, play if TEX <-175
COL out..CHC, IP <-20
STL
PHI
OKA, play if OAK <-123
ANA IP <-20 ?
ATL, play if ATL <-116

You got it. I am tracking on my SBR spreadsheet.

GL

[Small Timer]

Very interesting, checked out the last thread, which seems to have turned out very solid after initial confusion. Shiva you tracked Pitching and Team Overall Power Ratings last season or was H/A Power Ratings different?

Loot, from last thread the BPR picks were up 21 units, not sure in which time frame. TRP had modest success from what I saw and the Money Line system I had a hard time finding a record or units.

[firehoyt]

[HoulihansTX]

Bullpen Projection System

Florida 6.58 W (-140)
Washington 2.09 L (+120)
Cincy 1.80 W (+120)

Record and Units will be posted the next morning. BOL

Overall
(2-1) +1.2Units

_________________
April 26
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 11.73
Toronto 4.00
Detroit 2.91
Angels 2.83
Arizona 2.00
Cincy 1.64
Yanks 1.02

• Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
• Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
• Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
• Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.

[HoulihansTX]

The Win/Loss streaks are incorrect for the teams that played yesterday. This is located on the Predicted ML chart.

[Small Timer]

Overall
(2-1) +1.2Units

_________________
April 26
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 11.73
Toronto 4.00
Detroit 2.91
Angels 2.83
Arizona 2.00
Cincy 1.64
Yanks 1.02

• Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
• Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
• Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
• Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.

Just wondering for you and others on here Houli. Should I flat bet using this, or put a unit on Dogs and risk to win 1 unit on Favourites? Also I see the filters, are you just showing what you applied for people to understand or should I use those to filter plays out myself?
Thanks for your time to all who are doing it in this thread

[MrShrink]

ok... get what you guys are doing together (i think), but could use a little clarification on a few things if you don't mind. such as...

"TPR plays" - is this a play on one side's ml based on an estimation of one team's offensive outperformance of the other, adjusted specifically against said starters/bullpens/defenses?

"SA plays" - ummmm... how are these approached anymore "scientifically" than the others?


a few words on something other than how we should have bankroll definition and goals might go a long way. thanks and GL to you all this season.

[LockPickMaster]

Is Colorado a Play?

[wikaj]

I don't get it. So what games should we play? Can someone collaborate everything and post plays like Shiva does on his ugly dogs thread?

[Aussiecapper101]

GL in the new thread guys. Great work

[HoulihansTX]

Just wondering for you and others on here Houli. Should I flat bet using this, or put a unit on Dogs and risk to win 1 unit on Favourites? Also I see the filters, are you just showing what you applied for people to understand or should I use those to filter plays out myself? Thanks for your time to all who are doing it in this thread

I post the filtered plays.

Also, I grade the plays as risking to win one unit on favs, and laying one unit on dogs.

You can play them as you feel. Feel free to ask questions, as we go throughout the season.

BOL

[LockPickMaster]

I post the filtered plays. Also, I grade the plays as risking to win one unit on favs, and laying one unit on dogs. You can play them as you feel. Feel free to ask questions, as we go throughout the season. BOL

What are the filtered plays

[joeytunes]

there each taking part in the sporttrends formulas

[Small Timer]

I post the filtered plays.

Also, I grade the plays as risking to win one unit on favs, and laying one unit on dogs.

You can play them as you feel. Feel free to ask questions, as we go throughout the season.

BOL

the

Thank you, I don't want to ask too many questions because I saw in the last thread it lead to more confusion, and I don't want to bring it into this one. You guys all seemed to finish strong last year, and it appears your tracking the same system this year.

I'm just wondering if the system Chinoloco is running is the same as the one Shiva finished the year with in the last thread or if the H/A Power Ratings are different than the Overall Power Ratings because I'd be interested in following it if its the same system. Anyway I'm tailing yours tonight, hopefully with similar results to last year.

Especially like the ones that overlapped with Shiva's plays in his other thread. Thanks for the response and BOL.

[HoulihansTX]

What are the filtered plays

The ones that I have listed.

[Cranium]

Thanks Houlihans!

[kingofmonash]

Overall
(2-1) +1.2Units

_________________
April 26
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 11.73
Toronto 4.00
Detroit 2.91
Angels 2.83
Arizona 2.00
Cincy 1.64
Yanks 1.02

• Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
• Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
• Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
• Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.

Do bigger numbers necessarily mean stronger bullpen ?

[ShivaBowl]

Take it easy with the amount you wager, give us some time to workout the bugs and work with filters.
I'm going to start small $25.00 game and move up to $100. Its a long season and we just got started.
As far as the filters go, I added No Play if >-140 or >+140 to TPR this year, I want to give it some time and see how it does.

Remember these Systems need statistics, IE: IP... it will get stronger as it progresses.

[ShivaBowl]

Very interesting, checked out the last thread, which seems to have turned out very solid after initial confusion. Shiva you tracked Pitching and Team Overall Power Ratings last season or was H/A Power Ratings different? Loot, from last thread the BPR picks were up 21 units, not sure in which time frame. TRP had modest success from what I saw and the Money Line system I had a hard time finding a record or units.

BPR was up 21 units in the last 30 days or so of the 2010 season.
I did the TPR the last 1/2 And Pitching and Team H/A Power Ratings both did very well.
GL

[ShivaBowl]

4/26/11 MLB pitching and team power rating. st louis cardinals, no play if greater than -130. Phillies, no play if greater than -130. Baltimore Orioles. Tampa bay Rays.

Hey Chinoloco I think this System is going to be great this year...they have total revamped it from last year.
The one thing I would keep a eye on is the -130 filter, I like to track how many games I would have lost or won if I changed it to, lets say -140? also what were the unit plays? all 1 or was there any 1/2 ?
Thanks for your help
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[SCRUBZ71]

Good luck with this it looks really promising.

[ShivaBowl]

Hey BrewMaster, lets try a new filter with SA System.

No play if –140 and over.
Lets track SA, with the new filters and see how it does.
What do you think?
BOL

[stevenash]

Hey Chinoloco I think this System is going to be great this year...
BOL

Vegas was built on systems.
System are for suckers.

The only way to beat baseball is on a day to day basis, start with the starting pitcher first, then you must look at the opposing lineup second, does the lineup hit the starting pitcher or do they struggle.
Thirdly, bullpen...............

Systems are for suckers, baseball can only be beat on a game to game, isolated basis.

[ShivaBowl]

Yesterdays TPR Plays
1-2
Det out, IP for Cin <-20

[chinoloco]

4/26/11 MLB pitching and team power rating.
st louis cardinals, no play if greater than -130. L
Phillies, no play if greater than -130. L
Baltimore Orioles. W
Tampa bay Rays.Postponed.

1-2 All games are 1 unit.