New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**killawookie** · 04-30-11, 05:50 AM

Looks like you guys are successful!

**BigMama** · 04-30-11, 06:14 AM

great day for all

**barts185** · 04-30-11, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by Qtip

Yeah I thought the same thing for the ML plays, but I think I finally figured it out. They used the dash "-" to denote a pause and then used the same symbol for a minus value ie) -140. So when you rewrite their example and take out the "dash's" and leave the minus' it makes sense.

Rewritten:
EX: Houston's published ML +170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is +120 and our ML is +150, play is on Boston's opponent.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it's the only way I could make sense of it.

You can use it however you want, but I just want to make sure you know that you are wrong - at least in terms of how the system is supposed to be used according to the description.

As HoulihansTX said, it is MEANT to play the opposite of what is indicated, he's just not using it that way. If you read the whole page, it should be clear that this is meant to be used by going against what appears to be value.

"It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price, when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where the ML is way out of line."

**HoulihansTX** · 04-30-11, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Today: April 29
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 4.15 W (-110)
Arizona 4.11 L (-110)
Seattle 3.64 W (+170)
Florida 3.06 W (+130)
Cleveland 2.19 W (+105)
Tampa 1.44 L (-160)

Overall
(20-13) +8.4Units

_____________________
April 30
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 6.3
Seattle 3.66
Florida 2.02
Arizona 1.79
Toronto 1.6
St. Louis 1.49
Kansas City 1.25
Angels 1.2

Philly np>-175
CWS np/L3
Sand Diego np/L3

**Small Timer** · 04-30-11, 10:13 AM

You're sharp with them today Houli, they all look correct. Not really a question about the system, but what do you think about playing a favourite like Philly on the Run Line? Still not worth giving up a run and a half?

**HoulihansTX** · 04-30-11, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by Small Timer

You're sharp with them today Houli, they all look correct. Not really a question about the system, but what do you think about playing a favourite like Philly on the Run Line? Still not worth giving up a run and a half?

I always go the other way, when betting those types of games. Minimal risk, with an equal payout as betting the other side. So I would go Mets +1.5, but I'm passing today. Philly RL, w/ Halladay will be on everyone's parlay.

And yes, I proofread twice.

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Anybody have the Predicted ML plays? I have Washington np<+140 Seattle np<+145 Baltimore np>-110 I like all of them. Especially Washington.

Nice work HoulihansTX, Thanks,

**chinoloco** · 04-30-11, 10:23 AM

4/30/11 PR System:

ATL, np if > -130
MIL, np if > -130
ARI, np if > -130
OAK, np if > -130
SEA,

PHI, COL, filtered out.

**barts185** · 04-30-11, 10:26 AM

I haven't had a chance to go over all of them, but there are issues with the amount of innings some pitchers have pitched.

For example, it is listing NYY Burnett as having only pitched 4 innings. He pitched more than that in each one of his 5 starts.

Maybe that's the only issue, not sure, that one just jumped out.

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 10:29 AM

Today's TPR Plays
STL, 2.4
LAD, 1.5

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by barts185

I haven't had a chance to go over all of them, but there are issues with the amount of innings some pitchers have pitched. For example, it is listing NYY Burnett as having only pitched 4 innings. He pitched more than that in each one of his 5 starts. Maybe that's the only issue, not sure, that one just jumped out.

HoulihansTX
Are you using the IP filter, >+20 ?? I dont think hes using it with system, its based on Bullpen Projected Runs.
Thanks

**HoulihansTX** · 04-30-11, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

HoulihansTX Are you using the IP filter, >+20 ??

See post #89

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 10:39 AM

SA System Yesterday
WAS +146 WIN
SEA +170 WIN
TEX +100 Loss

WAS, if >+ 125 and over
SEA, if >+ 126 and over
TEX, if <-108 and under

OR you can post it this way?

WAS, N/P if <+125 and under
SEA, N/P if <+126 and under
TEX, N/P if >-108 and over

This play was filtered out yesterday.
COL, if <-208 and under
No Play on any team if you lay >-140 and over.
No Play on COL. No Play on TB, >-140

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 10:43 AM

chinoloco
4/30/11 PR System:

ATL, np if > -130
MIL, np if > -130
ARI, np if > -130
OAK, np if > -130
SEA,

PHI, COL, filtered out.

HoulihansTX
April 30
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 6.3
Seattle 3.66
Florida 2.02
Arizona 1.79
Toronto 1.6
St. Louis 1.49
Kansas City 1.25
Angels 1.2

Philly np>-175
CWS np/L3
Sand Diego np/L3

Today's TPR System Plays
STL, 2.4
LAD, 1.5

Today's SA System Plays
TOR, if >+129
MLW,
SEA,
KC,

Formulawiz
M/L System Plays
CHC, COL

**joeytunes** · 04-30-11, 11:04 AM

where sa?

**thienlong82** · 04-30-11, 11:22 AM

Good job guys

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by joeytunes

where sa?

Doing it now, Joey
gl

**ShivaBowl** · 04-30-11, 11:27 AM

Today's SA System Plays
TOR, if >+129
MLW,
SEA,
KC,

**Formulawiz** · 04-30-11, 11:27 AM

ML plays for today, please check

CHC, COL

**barts185** · 04-30-11, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by barts185

I haven't had a chance to go over all of them, but there are issues with the amount of innings some pitchers have pitched.

For example, it is listing NYY Burnett as having only pitched 4 innings. He pitched more than that in each one of his 5 starts.

Maybe that's the only issue, not sure, that one just jumped out.

Also, anyone who excluded Florida because it says Johnson only has 11.2 IP, that's wrong. He has around 34 IP

**joeytunes** · 04-30-11, 12:46 PM

wouldn't philly have been a ml..play? no prob shiva..just trying to figure out everyone..before use do it

**barts185** · 04-30-11, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by joeytunes

wouldn't philly have been a ml..play? no prob shiva..just trying to figure out everyone..before use do it

The line is too high.

**joeytunes** · 04-30-11, 01:18 PM

true ok i missed that filter...so isnt colarado? too high?

**barts185** · 04-30-11, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by joeytunes

true ok i missed that filter...so isnt colarado? too high?

It depends on which system. It seems like some people are using different cutoff points for the different systems.

So, -175 is definitely a no play, but between -130, -140 and -175 it depends on the system.

**TheJames** · 04-30-11, 01:43 PM

Good luck today boys

**joeytunes** · 04-30-11, 05:59 PM

ml system barts

**barts185** · 04-30-11, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by joeytunes

ml system barts

The COL line, while it was listed on the system page as -175, has been lower for most of the day. I'm guessing that whenever that system was done, the person realized that the line was lower than -175, so included them on the list.

This brings up a question about checking the lines. I'm not sure what the current rules / suggestions are about checking lines throughout the day or close to gametime.

**barts185** · 05-01-11, 10:45 AM

Just wondering what people are doing when there is no actual money line listed on the page, even though one exists.

For example, right now on the SA page, the first 5 games listed have a projected ML, but no Open ML. On the Projected ML page, there is a projected ML for all games, but some games are missing one, or both of the Open M/L.

I'm presuming you would just use the current ML that you see around, but could make for questions on what ML is being used.

**ShivaBowl** · 05-01-11, 10:49 AM

TPR Plays Yesterday
1-1
Filter N/P if >-140 to N/P >-150
Will start keeping a record on Monday.

Today's TPR Plays.
KC, 2.5
TEX, 2.4
STL, 2.3
CLE, 1.4
LAD, 1.4
NYY, 1.1

**ShivaBowl** · 05-01-11, 11:05 AM

SA Yesterday 2-2

SA System Plays, 05/01
CLE, STL, HOU, BAL, KC, TEX, SDP,

**barts185** · 05-01-11, 11:07 AM

The pitcher for LAA changed. It is now Chatwood, not Weaver. Weaver has a stomach virus.

**ShivaBowl** · 05-01-11, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by chinoloco

4/30/11 PR System: ATL, np if > -130 MIL, np if > -130 ARI, np if > -130 OAK, np if > -130 SEA, PHI, COL, filtered out.

Chinoloco, could you please start posting a YTD on Monday.
1 unit plays and 1/2 unit plays ?
We will keep a official record, starting on Monday, if that's OK with you?
Thanks

**HoulihansTX** · 05-01-11, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Overall
(20-13) +8.4Units
_____________________
April 30
Bullpen Projection System

Oakland 6.3 L (-140)
Seattle 3.66 W (+170)
Florida 2.02 L (-120)
Arizona 1.79 L (-117)
Toronto 1.6 L (+140)
St. Louis 1.49 W (+150)
Kansas City 1.25 W (+100)
Angels 1.2 L (+155)

Overall
(23-18) +6.83Units

_____________________
May 1
Bullpen Projection System

San Diego 6.00
Washington 3.25
St. Louis 3.12
Toronto 2.14
Oakland 1.9
Angels 1.25
Kansas City 1.06

**ShivaBowl** · 05-01-11, 11:32 AM

I need help with posting the M/L System along with the YTD record starting on Monday.
Any volunteers ?
Thanks

2-0 Yesterday

**ShivaBowl** · 05-01-11, 11:42 AM

Posting for Chinoloco today.
Yesterdays PR Plays 2-2

PR System Plays 05/01
MLW, BAL, SDP all 1 unit.
½ unit TEX