New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**BrewMaster** · 05-06-11, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

04May11 Result: 3-1 (+2.30 u)
May Record: 12-9 (+ 3.20 u)

Scientific Approach 05May11:

Giants, -2.66 L
Rays, -1.25 NP >-140
Cardinals, -1.08 W
Royals, -2.01 W
Rockies, -1.55 L

Lines were a little off today at ST. May want to double check.
System NO PLAY if >-140. Good Luck.

05May11 Result: 2-2 (+0.23 u)
May Record: 14-11 (+ 3.43 u)

**BrewMaster** · 05-06-11, 08:51 AM

Scientific Approach 06May11:

TB, -1.66
KC, -2.55
SF, -1.92

System NO PLAY if >-140. Good Luck.

**rask7rask7** · 05-06-11, 08:55 AM

Congrats guys, keep up the good work

**ShivaBowl** · 05-06-11, 09:28 AM

Yesterdays TPR Plays 05/05
TEX, 2.3 –110 L
KC, 1.7 –110 W
STL, 1.1 +123 W
2-1 +1.13u
YTD: 05/01 +0.04u
8-9

Today's TPR Plays 05/06
KC 2.1
ARZ 2.0
COL 1.1

BOS 1.6 n/p IP –20
STL 1.5 n/p STL >-140
FLA 1.4 n/p FLA >-140

**Formulawiz** · 05-06-11, 09:32 AM

Todays ML plays

CHC, NYM, SD, DET, OAK, LAA

**ShivaBowl** · 05-06-11, 09:37 AM

Yesterdays PR Plays 05/05
TOR, 1/2 Unit +168 L
KC, -110 W
COL, +100 L
TEX, -110 L
STL, +123 W

2-3 -0.37u
YTD: 05/01 +4.57 Units
16-13

Today's PR Plays 05/06
BAL
PIT
DET
NYM
KC, 1/2u
LAA
ARZ
COL
No Plays if >-130

CIN n/p CHC W/2
ATL n/p PHI W/2
CWS n/p L/2

**losemyloot** · 05-06-11, 09:59 AM

Got the same for the PR system. I get a little nervous when I see so many plays.

Good luck everyone!

**HoulihansTX** · 05-06-11, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Overall
(36-26) +13.23Units
_____________________
May 5
Bullpen Projection System

Cincy 4.95 W (-160)
Kansas City 2.79 W (-115)
Colorado 1.68 L (+100)
Toronto 1.30 L (+170)

Overall
(38-28) +13.23Units

_____________________
May 6
Bullpen Projection System

Pitt 7.91
Seattle 3.79
Tampa 3.22
San Diego 3.05
San Fran 2.35

**ShivaBowl** · 05-06-11, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by losemyloot

Got the same for the PR system. I get a little nervous when I see so many plays. Good luck everyone!

Thanks losemyloot, Chinoloco, should be back this weekend, with the PR System.
Do you have any ideas, on how we should post PR plays with the P-Power and T-Power ratings?
Maybe we can combine both T and P to come up with a rating system?
Thanks

**himeshforex** · 05-06-11, 11:39 AM

good luckguyss, love the bullpen projection system !!

**thienlong82** · 05-06-11, 12:39 PM

**BrewMaster** · 05-06-11, 12:44 PM

Noticing some significant discrepancies between PR system and SA/BP systems. Tonight should be interesting!

**GGZOLA** · 05-06-11, 12:53 PM

did you guys use these "systems" last year and if so what were results?

**HoulihansTX** · 05-06-11, 12:57 PM

I don't like any of the BPR plays today. I'm going to lay off.

**losemyloot** · 05-06-11, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Thanks losemyloot, Chinoloco, should be back this weekend, with the PR System.
Do you have any ideas, on how we should post PR plays with the P-Power and T-Power ratings?
Maybe we can combine both T and P to come up with a rating system?
Thanks

Problem with trying to come up with a formula for rankings is that a difference of 400 for the TP does not outweigh a difference of 20 for the PP. It only has a 1/2 unit affect on the game and the 400 does not affect a play any more than a difference of 100 for the TP.

I would think as long as the criteria for PP and TP are both met then games with bigger differentials in PP could be the games we rank higher. Not sure how we would measure this in units or value.

My main concern was with the number of plays it came up with today. 7.5 plays for the day seems like a lot but this is only one day. I have been considering doubling the requirements sportstrends set and maybe using a <40 and <200 scenario. For today that would have reduced the number of plays to Balt, NYM, LAA, and Arizona.

Sportstrends must have decided that any difference between PP greater than 20, and TP greater than 100 has no benefit on the outcome of the game.

This would be something I would be interested in tracking but in all honesty I don't know if I could be relied upon doing this everyday.

GL today on your plays!

**joeytunes** · 05-06-11, 02:42 PM

how were the cubs a ml pick ..isnt it a 2 game filter? win streak?

**Timetobet34** · 05-06-11, 06:01 PM

BOL Tonight all!

**wikaj** · 05-06-11, 06:04 PM

Yes there is a 2 game filter I believe

**Joe Dogs** · 05-06-11, 07:27 PM

Good luck going forward gents.

**Small Timer** · 05-07-11, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I don't like any of the BPR plays today. I'm going to lay off.

Loses with the system are certainly more frustrating when they're blown saves in the last two innings when you're team is supposed to have the better bullpen. Then again it doesn't start until May 15 so I can't really complain about the Pirates of Padres giving up late leads tonight.

**Formulawiz** · 05-07-11, 05:19 AM

Originally posted by joeytunes

how were the cubs a ml pick ..isnt it a 2 game filter? win streak?

CUBS were not a play yesterday. Thats why we need people to keep an eye on any of these systems for discrepencies.
ML went 4-1 yesterday

**rask7rask7** · 05-07-11, 07:12 AM

Best of luck with your picks

**Formulawiz** · 05-07-11, 07:26 AM

Todays ML plays

PIT, WAS, SF, DET, OAK

**ShivaBowl** · 05-07-11, 07:44 AM

Yesterdays TPR Plays 05/06
KC 2.1 +114 L
ARI 2.0 +125 L
COL 1.1 –100 L
0-3 -3.00u
YTD: 05/01 –3.04u
8-12

Today’s TPR Plays 05/07
KC 2.2
ARI 1.9
STL 1.7
NYM 1.0

BOS 1.5 n/p L/3
FLA 1.2 n/p L/2

**ShivaBowl** · 05-07-11, 08:04 AM

Yesterdays PR Plays 05/06
BAL –110 L
PIT –106 L
DET +101 L
NYM –126 W
KC, 1/2u +114 L
LAA +106 W
ARZ +125 L
COL –100 L
2-6 -3.60u
YTD: 05/01 18-19 +0.97 Units

Today’s PR Plays 05/07
TB
PIT
KC
SDP

BOS n/p L/3 >-130
CHC n/p IP <-20 CIN W/3
MLW n/p L/7
FLA n/p L/2
TEX n/p L/2
CLE n/p IP <-20

**BrewMaster** · 05-07-11, 09:08 AM

06May11 Result: 2-1 (+1.00 u)
May Record: 16-12 (+ 4.43 u)

Scientific Approach 07May11:

MIN, -1.10
TOR, -1.85
STL, -3.46
NYM, -2.99
WAS, -2.09
NYY, -2.52
SD, -3.53
SEA, -2.44

System NO PLAY if >-140. Good Luck.

Big card today!

EDIT: HOU fell out of system based on line differential

**ShivaBowl** · 05-07-11, 09:54 AM

OK

FYI:
2011 Kentucky Derby
Archarcharch +1000 W-P-S
Midnight Interlude +1200 W-P-S
Animal Kingdom +2000 W-P-S

**HoulihansTX** · 05-07-11, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Overall
(38-28) +13.23Units
_____________________
May 6
Bullpen Projection System

Pitt 7.91 L (-110)
Seattle 3.79 No Play >-175
Tampa 3.22 W (-105)
San Diego 3.05 W (-140)
San Fran 2.35 W (-120)

Overall
(41-29) +15.13Units

_____________________
May 7
Bullpen Projection System

Toronto 9,68
Pitt 8.36
Seattle 6.69
Tampa 4.98
San Diego 3.10
Washington 1.65
San Fran 1.16

Cubs np (Cincy w2)
Boston np L2
Milwaukee np L2
Philly np (atl w2)
Dodgers np L2
Personally I dont bet the Pirates, unless the are heavy Dogs. FYI

**f3lis0** · 05-07-11, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Overall
(41-29) +15.13Units

_____________________
May 7
Bullpen Projection System

Toronto 9,68
Pitt 8.36
Seattle 6.69
Tampa 4.98
San Diego 3.10
Washington 1.65
San Fran 1.16

Cubs np (Cincy w2)
Boston np L2
Milwaukee np L2
Philly np (atl w2)
Dodgers np L2
Personally I dont bet the Pirates, unless the are heavy Dogs. FYI

Good work,what does the number at the right side of the team means??

**Timetobet34** · 05-07-11, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by GGZOLA

did you guys use these "systems" last year and if so what were results?

Same question, I know it is a big thread and may have been addressed, if so feel free to point me to the post # or link

BOL today!

**Joe Dogs** · 05-07-11, 06:16 PM

Nice work Gents.

**ShivaBowl** · 05-08-11, 06:29 AM

Yesterdays PR Plays 05/07

TB –105 W
PIT –118 W
KC +104 W
SDP –105 L
3-1 +1.99u

Start Date 05/01
21-20 +2.96 Units

**Formulawiz** · 05-08-11, 06:32 AM

ML plays later today

ML last 3 days have gone 12-3. Going to start 5/15

**rask7rask7** · 05-08-11, 07:07 AM

Good luck to everyone tonight on their plays.

**ShivaBowl** · 05-08-11, 07:14 AM

Chinoloco, could you check this out and send me a PM?
Thank You

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Thanks losemyloot, Chinoloco, should be back this weekend, with the PR System. Do you have any ideas, on how we should post PR plays with the P-Power and T-Power ratings? Maybe we can combine both T and P to come up with a rating system? Thanks

Originally posted by losemyloot

Problem with trying to come up with a formula for rankings is that a difference of 400 for the TP does not outweigh a difference of 20 for the PP. It only has a 1/2 unit affect on the game and the 400 does not affect a play any more than a difference of 100 for the TP. I would think as long as the criteria for PP and TP are both met then games with bigger differentials in PP could be the games we rank higher. Not sure how we would measure this in units or value. My main concern was with the number of plays it came up with today. 7.5 plays for the day seems like a lot but this is only one day. I have been considering doubling the requirements sportstrends set and maybe using a <40 and <200 scenario. For today that would have reduced the number of plays to Balt, NYM, LAA, and Arizona. Sportstrends must have decided that any difference between PP greater than 20, and TP greater than 100 has no benefit on the outcome of the game. This would be something I would be interested in tracking but in all honesty I don't know if I could be relied upon doing this everyday. GL today on your plays!