New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[ShivaBowl]

Great day yesterday!

If it weren’t for SD, our system would have had a dam near, perfect night.
All and all ST Systems made us some cash yesterday, good work!

[barts185]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
May 13
Bullpen Projection System

San Diego 5.75
Mets 4.40
ATL 3.32
STL 3.30
Washington 3.28
Toronto 2.95

Originally Posted by ShivaBowl
Team Projected Runs
TOR 1.7
FLA 1.2
PR Predicted Runs
CWS

Originally Posted by Losemyloot
PR Plays
FLA 1/2U
TEX
NYM
SDP 1/2U
CWS 1/2U

Originally Posted by BrewMaster
Scientific Approach

TOR, -299
WAS, -220
STL, -199
SD, -192
NYM, -185
SF, -185
CWS, -143

Originally Posted by Formulawiz
ML plays
WAS, CIN, ATL, MIL, TEX

Nice work everyone, Thank You!


Separate post:

If it weren’t for SD, our system would have had a dam near, perfect night.

Maybe we have different ideas of perfect. Not saying it wasn't a good night, although the SD comment, when 3 systems picked it seems a little bit like saying "if it weren't for the losers, we'd win more."

I'll apologize in advance if my accounting of winners and losers is off, but here's what I got:

BP 2-4, 2-3 w/o SD

TPR 3-0

PR 4-1, 4-0 w/o SD, unit wise the 2 full unit plays won, the 1/2 unit plays went 2-1, so 3.0-0.5

SA 3-4, 3-3 w/o SD

ML 3-2

So, 15-11, or 14-10.5 using the full unit / half unit plays from PR.
I guess if you get to remove SD, 15-8, which looks a lot better.

Again, not a bad night at all, but "damn near perfect" ?


Anyway, won money, a winning night. Maybe I'm just being too harsh when I see posts that say anything about being perfect, especially when the system which has won the most so far had a 2-4 night. Not looking to be negative, just realistic.

[ShivaBowl]

Yesterdays TPR Plays
TOR 1.7 –132 W
FLA 1.2 +100 W
2-0 +2.00u
Start Date 05/01
17-19 –1.60u

TPR Plays 05/14
CLE 1.9 n/p if CLE >-150
TOR 1.9
FLA 1.2
TB 1.0 n/p if TB >-150

Yesterdays PR Predicted Runs
CWS +113 W
Start Date 05/13
2-0 +2.88u

PR Predicted Run Plays 05/14
PHI
TOR
TEX 1/2u

[losemyloot]

Yesterdays PR Plays 05/13
FLA 1/2U +101 W
TEX -101 W
NYM -110 W
SDP +157 L
CWS 1/2U +113 W


Yesterday 4-1 +2.07 Units
Start Date 05/01
38-35 +5.81 Units



Todays PR Plays 5/14
PHI
TEX


n/p if > -130


Filtered Out
DET ½U n/p (Could be a play if it gets below -130 currently -142)
WAS n/p L2
OAK n/p L2
PIT ½U n/p L3
MIN n/p L6

[rask7rask7]

gl on your plays today

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays

PHI, COL, MIL

[BrewMaster]

13May11 Result: 3-4
May Record: 30-30 (will update units on Monday)


Scientific Approach 14May11:

FLA, -180
TB, -273
CLE, -253
NYM, -194
TOR, -187

Sorry guys, got a couple mixed up. Still moving into my new house and I'm mega busy on the weekend. I think I got it right now, let me know if not.

System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck.

[Timetobet34]

I say that, and then the San Diego's pitcher acts like a complete jackass.

[ShivaBowl]

Bullpen Projection Systems 05/14

HoulihansTX, will update plays.

NYM 7.29
SDP 5.03
TB 3.01
CLE 2.50
TOR 2.00
SF 1.64
MLW 1.28

ARZ 4.44 n/p L/4
ATL 4.03 n/p PHI W/2
KC 3.35 n/p DET W/6
WAS 2.95 n/p L/2
LAA 2.94 n/p L/2

[ShivaBowl]

5/14 Jason Heyward RF Shoulder Questionable was not in the starting lineup Saturday, is questionable Sunday (5/15) vs. Philadelphia

5/14 Brian McCann C Rest Probable was not in the starting lineup Saturday, is probable Sunday (5/15) vs. Philadelphia

5/14 Grady Sizemore CF Knee Questionable was not in the starting lineup Saturday, is questionable Sunday (5/15) vs. Seattle

5/14 Corey Hart RF Rest Doubtful is not expected to be in the starting lineup Saturday (5/14) vs. Pittsburgh

5/14 Adam Lind 1B Back Doubtful is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (5/14) at Minnesota

5/14 Jacoby Ellsbury CF Knee Questionable is questionable Saturday (5/14) at New York Yankees

[ShivaBowl]

Bullpen Projection Systems 05/14
HoulihansTX, will update plays.
NYM 7.29
SDP 5.03
TB 3.01
CLE 2.50
TOR 2.00
SF 1.64
MLW 1.28

Originally Posted by ShivaBowl
TPR Plays
CLE 1.9
TOR 1.9
FLA 1.2
TB 1.0 n/p if TB >-150

PR Predicted Runs
PHI
TOR
TEX 1/2u

Originally Posted by Losemyloot
PR Plays
PHI
TEX

Originally Posted by Brew Master
Scientific Approach
TB 2.73 n/p if >-150
CLE 2.53 n/p if >-150
NYM 1.94
TOR 1.87
FLA 1.80

Originally Posted by Formulawiz
ML plays
PHI, COL, MIL

[barts185]

5/14 Jason Heyward RF Shoulder Questionable was not in the starting lineup Saturday, is questionable Sunday (5/15) vs. Philadelphia

5/14 Brian McCann C Rest Probable was not in the starting lineup Saturday, is probable Sunday (5/15) vs. Philadelphia

5/14 Grady Sizemore CF Knee Questionable was not in the starting lineup Saturday, is questionable Sunday (5/15) vs. Seattle

5/14 Corey Hart RF Rest Doubtful is not expected to be in the starting lineup Saturday (5/14) vs. Pittsburgh

5/14 Adam Lind 1B Back Doubtful is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (5/14) at Minnesota

5/14 Jacoby Ellsbury CF Knee Questionable is questionable Saturday (5/14) at New York Yankees

While not an injury, it might be of interest that the STL pitcher, KYLE MCCLELLAN, is leaving after the game to go with his wife so that she can have labor induced on Sunday to give birth to their first child.

Not sure if it will detract from his pitching, but it's got to be at least a little bit of a distraction.

[staf]

Todays ML plays

PHI, COL, MIL

I'm trying to wrap my head around this pick of Philadelphia.
If I understand the Sportrends site, they're saying to bet the team if the actual ML is at least 25 points worse than their projected ML.
Atlanta's projected ML is +125 and the actual line is -168, 93 points worse.
Therefore Atlanta should have been the initial prediction but would have been filtered out because Philadelphia won their last 2.
Somebody tell me what I'm doing wrong here.

[barts185]

I'm trying to wrap my head around this pick of Philadelphia.
If I understand the Sportrends site, they're saying to bet the team if the actual ML is at least 25 points worse than their projected ML.
Atlanta's projected ML is +125 and the actual line is -168, 93 points worse.
Therefore Atlanta should have been the initial prediction but would have been filtered out because Philadelphia won their last 2.
Somebody tell me what I'm doing wrong here.

Bearing in mind that I was told that I was just too stupid to figure it out many times last year for asking questions like this, it seems to me that you are not doing anything wrong.

[HoulihansTX]

Overall
(62-46) +22.66 Units
_____________________
May 13
Bullpen Projection System

San Diego 5.75 L (+165)
Mets 4.40 W (+100)
ATL 3.32 L (-105)
STL 3.30 L (-105)
Washington 3.28 L (-110)
Toronto 2.95W (-125)

Overall
(64-50) +20.46 Units

_____________________
May 14
Bullpen Projection System

Mets 7.29 L (-105)
San Diego 5.03 W (+180)
Tampa 3.01 L (-165)
Cleveland 2.5PPD
Toronto 2.00 W (+100)
San Fran 1.64 W (-110)
Milwaukee 1.28 W (-150)


Washington np L2
Atl np (Philly W2)
Angels np L2
Kansas City np (Detroit W2)
Arizona np L2

Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

_____________________

[HoulihansTX]

Thanks for covering for me Shiva.

[rask7rask7]

Keep up the good work guys!

[HoulihansTX]

Sportrends instructs users of the BPR to start tracking officially on May 15. With that said, I will reset the record. We have experienced a dream start from this system, having not had consecutive negative unit days. The system has produced an average of 6 plays, and +1.1Units per day. These results have heightened our expectations, but I caution followers to continue solid money management. The season is still young, and expect bumps in the road.

BOL to all
May 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

_____________________
Official start (per Sportrends instructions)

May 15
Bullpen Projection System

Mets 10.20
Arizona 4.98
San Diego 3.84
Tampa 2.90
Milwaukee 2.89
CWS 2.57
Cleveland 2.50
Toronto 1.93
ATL 1.91
Cincy 1.84
San Fran 1.84
Angels 1.64


KC np L2

[ShivaBowl]

Yesterdays TPR Plays 05/14
CLE 1.9 R/O
TOR 1.9 +104 W
FLA 1.2 –133 W
TB 1.0 n/p if TB >-150 N/P
2-0 +2.04
Start Date 05/01
19-19 +0.44

TPR Plays 05/15
CLE 1.9,
TOR 1.9, 1/2u
FLA 1.2, 1/2u

MLW 1.1 n/p >-150


Yesterdays PR Predicted Runs
PHI +145 L
TOR +104 W
TEX 1/2u +107 L
1-2 –0.46
Start Date 05/13
3-2 +2.42u

PR Predicted Run Plays 05/15
CWS

[ShivaBowl]

May 14
Bullpen Projection System
Mets 7.29 L (-105)
San Diego 5.03 W (+180)
Tampa 3.01 L (-165)
Cleveland 2.5PPD
Toronto 2.00 W (+100)
San Fran 1.64 W (-110)
Milwaukee 1.28 W (-150)

Yesterdays TPR Plays 05-14
CLE 1.9 PPD
TOR 1.9 +104 W
FLA 1.2 –133 W
TB 1.0 n/p if TB >-150 No Play
2-0 +2.04

[ShivaBowl]

Sportrends instructs users of the BPR to start tracking officially on May 15. With that said, I will reset the record. We have experienced a dream start from this system, having not had consecutive negative unit days. The system has produced an average of 6 plays, and +1.1Units per day. These results have heightened our expectations, but I caution followers to continue solid money management. The season is still young, and expect bumps in the road.

BOL to all
May 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units


Your going to wipe-out +22U YTD why

[barts185]

Sportrends instructs users of the BPR to start tracking officially on May 15. With that said, I will reset the record. We have experienced a dream start from this system, having not had consecutive negative unit days. The system has produced an average of 6 plays, and +1.1Units per day. These results have heightened our expectations, but I caution followers to continue solid money management. The season is still young, and expect bumps in the road.

BOL to all
May 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units


Your going to wipe-out +22U YTD why

The same reason he would wipe it out if it was -22 units YTD, which he explained. The system specifically says to start using it on May 15th.

[ShivaBowl]

The same reason he would wipe it out if it was -22 units YTD, which he explained. The system specifically says to start using it on May 15th.

Whats the problem Barts185 losing money again with MLB.
Over a months worth of work and your just going to wipe it out

[barts185]

Whats the problem Barts185 losing money again with MLB.
Over a months worth of work and your just going to wipe it out

Not sure what this would have to do with me losing or winning, but if you look at the threads I'm posting,

April was +31.99 units.

For May, if you took everything, it's -10.49.
If you used the -175 and better filter, it's -3.72
If you used the home dogs only, it's +6.51

Not sure how any of that would equate to losing, worst possible case is +21.50 units, best possible case is +38.50 units.



Now, to get back to talking specifically about this system, which part of

"This system does not kick in until May 15" is unclear?

It would be like saying don't take plays above -150, and then counting all the plays that are above -150 anyway. Or saying don't play on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak, and then counting those plays.

I really wasn't trying to be negative, sorry if it came across that way. And, as I said, I would feel the same way if the system was -22 units - it wouldn't count prior to the start date for the system.


If you want to include a note showing the record prior to May 15th, why not just do that so that anyone who looks can see that it did well early on.

[ShivaBowl]

Today’s Power Plays 05/15
CLE
ATL
FLA
CWS
LAD

No Plays if >-130

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays

ATL, SF, TB, TEX, OAK, BOS

[BrewMaster]

Scientific Approach 15May11:

CLE, -196
CIN, -269
TOR, -189
SF, -185
TEX, -201
COL, -219
ARZ, -275

System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck.

Record will be updated Monday. Have a great day buds!!

[Formulawiz]

Sportrends instructs users of the BPR to start tracking officially on May 15. With that said, I will reset the record. We have experienced a dream start from this system, having not had consecutive negative unit days. The system has produced an average of 6 plays, and +1.1Units per day. These results have heightened our expectations, but I caution followers to continue solid money management. The season is still young, and expect bumps in the road.

BOL to all
May 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units


Your going to wipe-out +22U YTD why

A May 15th starts also pertains to their software system plays.
Keep up the good work guys. I think we will have a great season.

[HoulihansTX]

Your going to wipe-out +22U YTD why

Do you feel I should keep the record on-going?

I am more than open to do so. I dont make the rules, or take ownership in the systems.

If you, or the users of these systems feel I should keep the record going, then lets do it.

[Formulawiz]

Do you feel I should keep the record on-going?

I am more than open to do so. I dont make the rules, or take ownership in the systems.

If you, or the users of these systems feel I should keep the record going, then lets do it.

Sportrends suggests you start 5/15 but there is no reason why you cant continue with the record.

[HoulihansTX]

What a day for the BPR.

[losemyloot]

Thanks Shiva for covering me this morning. Please note Cubs added as a play.

Yesterdays PR Plays 05/14
PHI+155 L
TEX +111 L


Yesterday 0-2 -2.00 Units
Start Date 05/01
38-37 +3.81 Units


Todays PR Plays 5/15
CLE
ATL
FLA
CWS
LAD
CHC


n/p if > -130


Filtered Out
STL n/p L2
MIN n/p L7

[losemyloot]

Nevermind Cubs PPD

[Formulawiz]

May 14
Bullpen Projection System
Mets 7.29 L (-105)
San Diego 5.03 W (+180)
Tampa 3.01 L (-165)
Cleveland 2.5PPD
Toronto 2.00 W (+100)
San Fran 1.64 W (-110)
Milwaukee 1.28 W (-150)

Yesterdays TPR Plays 05-14
CLE 1.9 PPD
TOR 1.9 +104 W
FLA 1.2 –133 W
TB 1.0 n/p if TB >-150 No Play
2-0 +2.04

BP plays, I believe you left out CIN, ATL, ARI
3 more wins

[HoulihansTX]

What a day for the BPR.

(8-2) +6.6Units

Yep, BPR is now OFFICIAL.