New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**HoulihansTX** · 08-20-11, 08:44 AM

August 20
Bullpen Projection System
Brew 4.57
TX 2.89
Toronto 2.86
Boston 2.55
Cincy 1.73
Wash 1.58
Yanks 1.11
Det 1.04

No Play
SF np L2 7.01
Balty np L2 5.75
FL np L2 3.38
Colo np(Dodgers W2) 1.27
______________________________
TPR
Yanks 2.2
TX 1.5
Boston 1.3
Cincy 1.0
Toronto 1.0

No Play
Tampa np>-150 1.3
Colo np(Dodgers W2) 1.1

**steve3402** · 08-20-11, 09:30 AM

Wiz, for today's games, doesn't Det fall off since the Cle pitcher has less than 20 innings?

Thanks,

**BrewMaster** · 08-20-11, 11:47 AM

Record since 15May11: TBD

Scientific Approach 20Aug11:

MLW, np > -140
CIN
LAD, np < +110
CLE
TEX, np > -129
NYY

Filtered (FLA, BAL)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**ShivaBowl** · 08-20-11, 12:22 PM

08/19/11
H/A System Plays Went 2-0
MLW –128 W
LAD +105 W
As of 06/01/11
105-82 +9.42 Units

08/20/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays

**ShivaBowl** · 08-20-11, 12:56 PM

Formulawiz; Todays ML plays.
CHC, MIL, SD, DET?
Filter: Fav must be < -140

HoulihansTX;
BPR System Plays
Filter: No Play if > -150
MLW 4.57
TEX 2.89
TOR 2.86
BOS 2.55
CIN 1.73
WAS 1.58
NYY 1.11
DET 1.04

BPR No Plays
SF L2 7.01
BAL L2 5.75
FLA L2 3.38
COL, LAD W/2 1.27

TPR System Plays
Filter: No Play if > -150
NYY 2.2
TEX 1.5
BOS 1.3
CIN 1.0
TOR 1.0

TPR No Plays
TAM >-150 1.3
COL, 1.0 LAD W/2

H/A System Plays
No Plays today

BrewMaster
S/A System Plays
Filter: No Play if > -150
MLW, No Play if > -140
CIN
LAD, No play if < +110
CLE
TEX, No play if > -129
NYY, No play if > -150

S/A No plays
FLA, BAL

P/T System Plays
TG, I don’t see anything today?
No Plays today

**Tommygunn** · 08-20-11, 02:00 PM

Complimentary Selection for 8/20/2011

Take Cincinnati W/Willis*over Pittsburgh W/Morton NO PLAY if PIT < -110

**Tommygunn** · 08-20-11, 02:05 PM

P/T System Aug.20.11

No Plays

**Formulawiz** · 08-20-11, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by steve3402

Wiz, for today's games, doesn't Det fall off since the Cle pitcher has less than 20 innings?

Thanks,

No, only if CLE was the play.

**Formulawiz** · 08-21-11, 05:30 AM

ML plays went 3-0, + 3.0 units

Here are the plays. SD, DET, OAK
PLays dropped out CHC, MIL. Too bad we would have had a 5-0 day.

YTD 137-72, + 51.5 units.

Plays later today.

**Formulawiz** · 08-21-11, 07:03 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

MIL?, CIN, LAD? SD

Again Ill stress to make your plays 15-20 minutes prior to start of game. EX: Yesterday OAK started as a -160 FAV and fell to a -135 to -140 FAV and became a play.

To answer some emails I have received here is an ex: as how to make an ML play.

Proj ML 100. If team A is -125 to -140 FAV they would be the play. If Team B was the -125 FAV they would be the play. Make sure to follow all our filters.

**ShivaBowl** · 08-21-11, 07:05 AM

HoulihansTX;

I would consider adding a new filter to BPR;
Throw out any plays that come in with a rating of under 4.00?
When I use BPR, I consider anything < 4.00 as a weak play.
BOL

**Soon2BRich** · 08-21-11, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

MIL?, CIN, LAD? SD

Again Ill stress to make your plays 15-20 minutes prior to start of game. EX: Yesterday OAK started as a -160 FAV and fell to a -135 to -140 FAV and became a play.

To answer some emails I have received here is an ex: as how to make an ML play.

Proj ML 100. If team A is -125 to -140 FAV they would be the play. If Team B was the -125 FAV they would be the play. Make sure to follow all our filters.

so let me try to understand a bit better, just before the games start u play every fave that falls between -125 and -140?

**ShivaBowl** · 08-21-11, 07:14 AM

08/21/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays

**Formulawiz** · 08-21-11, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by Soon2BRich

so let me try to understand a bit better, just before the games start u play every fave that falls between -125 and -140?

No, this was based on the example I gave with a Proj ML of 100. Of course it would depend on the the Proj ML as long as there is a 25 cent diff and you follow the filters.

**ShivaBowl** · 08-21-11, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140 MIL?, CIN, LAD? SD Again Ill stress to make your plays 15-20 minutes prior to start of game. EX: Yesterday OAK started as a -160 FAV and fell to a -135 to -140 FAV and became a play. To answer some emails I have received here is an ex: as how to make an ML play. Proj ML 100. If team A is -125 to -140 FAV they would be the play. If Team B was the -125 FAV they would be the play. Make sure to follow all our filters.

Formulawiz; when I see 105 on Sportrends, I interpret it as -105 on both teams?

-105/-105
-110/+100
-120/+110
-130/+120

Is this the correct approach, when applying it to the M/L System?
Thanks

**Soon2BRich** · 08-21-11, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

No, this was based on the example I gave with a Proj ML of 100. Of course it would depend on the the Proj ML as long as there is a 25 cent diff and you follow the filters.

what are the filters? i take it are they in this thread or on some site so i can go back and read them? ive never really been in this thread so i dont know whats going on in here so can you tell me how you pick your plays formulawiz? and im sorry if you said all this stuff before and im annoying you

**Romanov** · 08-21-11, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Formulawiz; when I see 105 on Sportrends, I interpret it as -105 on both teams? -105/-105 -110/+100 -120/+110 -130/+120 Is this the correct approach, when applying it to the M/L System? Thanks

If that is true, MIL's projected ML today would be -120, making it impossible for it to be a play

**Romanov** · 08-21-11, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140 MIL?, CIN, LAD? SD Again Ill stress to make your plays 15-20 minutes prior to start of game. EX: Yesterday OAK started as a -160 FAV and fell to a -135 to -140 FAV and became a play. To answer some emails I have received here is an ex: as how to make an ML play. Proj ML 100. If team A is -125 to -140 FAV they would be the play. If Team B was the -125 FAV they would be the play. Make sure to follow all our filters.

I see SD as the only definite play today, CIN has to climb to -135, the Dodgers are now a dog, and depending on what you think the MIL projected ML is, it is either impossible or it has to be -135 or greater.

**BrewMaster** · 08-21-11, 09:30 AM

Record since 15May11: 193-174 (+16.3 units)

Scientific Approach 21Aug11:

CIN
TEX, np > -134
ANA

Filtered (CLE, TOR)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**HoulihansTX** · 08-21-11, 10:41 AM

August 21
Bullpen System Projection
Brew 5.52
TX 3.00
Toronto 2.80
Colo 2.48
Cincy 1.86

No Play
Balty np L2 4.63
SF np L2 1.74
Yanks np>-150 1.51
Zona np L2 1.39
StL np L2 1.32
Tampa np>-150 1.09
________________________
TPR
TX 1.5
Cincy 1.0
Colo 1.0
Toronto 1.0

No Play
Yanks np>-150 2.2
Boston np>-150 1.3
Tampa np>-150 1.2

**Romanov** · 08-21-11, 11:09 AM

Wiz,

Pinny has the brewers down to -128, making them a no play right?

**Tommygunn** · 08-21-11, 11:26 AM

Complimentary Selection for 8/21/2011

Take Cincinnati W/Leake*over Pittsburgh W/McDonald NO PLAY if > -125

**Tommygunn** · 08-21-11, 11:36 AM

Aug.21.11 P/T Plays

Mil
Cinn

NP>-150

**Formulawiz** · 08-21-11, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

I see SD as the only definite play today, CIN has to climb to -135, the Dodgers are now a dog, and depending on what you think the MIL projected ML is, it is either impossible or it has to be -135 or greater.

Your correct. everything else dropped out.

**Formulawiz** · 08-21-11, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Formulawiz; when I see 105 on Sportrends, I interpret it as -105 on both teams?

-105/-105
-110/+100
-120/+110
-130/+120

Is this the correct approach, when applying it to the M/L System?
Thanks

No, when the Proj ML is 105 on the home team that means they are +105 and should be getting 105 from the away team. If you see -105 on the home team it means you should be laying -105. Now if your talking about the ML being -110/-110 that means something entirely different. Both teams can be the fav in this case. Now for ex: if the Proj ML line for the HT is -115 and the ACT ML is -110/-110 then the Away team can be the play only since there is a 25 cent diff. I usually pass the game in this situation.

**Formulawiz** · 08-21-11, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

Complimentary Selection for 8/21/2011

Take Cincinnati W/Leake*over Pittsburgh W/McDonald NO PLAY if > -125

Nice come back win.

**Tommygunn** · 08-21-11, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Nice come back win.

Yeah had them everywhere yesterday and they lost a close one. Nice to have a little retribution.

BOL

**Romanov** · 08-21-11, 09:41 PM

SD hits for us again Wiz!

**Tommygunn** · 08-21-11, 11:20 PM

Aug.19.11 P/T went 2-0 for 2.05 units. Start date 06/12.
64-49 + 9.88 u.

Aug.20.11 - No Plays

Aug.21.11 P/T went 2-0 for 2.00 units. Start date 06/12.
66-49 +11.88 u.

**Formulawiz** · 08-22-11, 06:40 AM

ML plays went 1-0, +1.0 units

YTD 138-72, +52.5 units

Plays later today.

**ShivaBowl** · 08-22-11, 06:58 AM

08/22/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays

**HoulihansTX** · 08-22-11, 07:54 AM

August 22
Bullpen Projection System
Brew(GM1) 2.47

No Play
Cleve np L2 3.59
Colo np>-150 3.29
Cubs np(Atl W2) 2.87
Balty np L2 2.52
StL np L2 2.06
________________________
TPR
Brew(GM1) 1.1

No Play
StL np>-150 1.3
Cleve np L2 1.1

**HoulihansTX** · 08-22-11, 07:55 AM

Brew Crew GM1 looks like a solid play fellas.

**BrewMaster** · 08-22-11, 09:49 AM

Record since 15May11: 195-175 (+17.1 units)

Scientific Approach 21Aug11:

DET, np > -145
BOS, np < +105
ATL

Filtered (BAL, LAD)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**Formulawiz** · 08-22-11, 10:12 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

ATL, DET?