New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**Formulawiz** · 08-11-11, 07:27 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

NYM, CIN?, OAK

**Formulawiz** · 08-11-11, 07:58 AM

Originally posted by barts185

Maybe if people stopped calling them mathematical signs, and starting calling them "symbols we use that don't mean what you think they mean if you are looking at it from a math point of view" it would help.

As I've pointed out numerous times, you are not using them correctly if you are using them as mathematical symbols.

You are using symbols that are normally used to mean a certain thing in math, to mean something else.

In math, -150 IS LESS THAN -140!!! So when someone sees no play if >-140, they would think that -150 is a play.

In this thread, <-140 means -140 or better (and sometimes -139 or better).

Can't blame people for being confused when you don't use math symbols correctly. Well, you can blame them, but it will keep happening.

<sigh>

By the way so your telling us when you see -150 at any book it means you have to lay less then 150. Using your logic then every book out there when they post -150 wants you to pay less then 150 if you take the fav and they lose. The books will accept a $100 which is less then 150, is that what your saying.

Look the < -150 is simple to interpret. It tells you to lay less then 150 if you take the Favorite. All sports services post their games this way or they may post it at -150 telling you to take the game no matter what the game line goes off at.

**HoulihansTX** · 08-11-11, 08:20 AM

I think if people ask what the symbols mean it can be easily explained, and conclusively understood.

I understand what Bart is saying though. He saying that we have flipped the value of +/- on a number line. Nevertheless we are gambling, and we are using gambling jargon. Terms like, "-200 is a heavy favorite", and "CWS @-120 is a small favorite", are used. I feel that its universally understood that the "value" of +/- is technically reversed for gambling.

**BrewMaster** · 08-11-11, 08:30 AM

Record since 15May11: 174-156 (+17.43 units)

Scientific Approach 11Aug11:

SD, np < +107
CIN
CWS

Filtered ()
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

Here's my 2 cents on the operators:

I don't think the interpretation of what the < and > operators mean is the problem. It's the understanding of the lines: -170 is worse than -150 but also -170 LINE > -150 LINE. You have to lay the GREATER amount of money to wager on the play. But, in mathematics the -170 NUMBER is LESSER than the -150 NUMBER. This is the confusion.

As a math and engineer major, I'd prefer the latter of the two interpretations but I understand both very well now. To FormulaWiz's point, if the sports book world uses the first interpretation, we should stick to that. After all, we are in the world of sports wagering... and that's why I have accepted this method, even if it contradicts my own intuition.

**joeytunes** · 08-11-11, 08:47 AM

form...is this better then the software? its just picks isnt it?

**HoulihansTX** · 08-11-11, 08:58 AM

August 11
Bullpen System Projection
Balty 5.93
SD 4.74
Oak 2.94
Colo 1.37
Cubs 1.27

No Plays
Yanks np>-150 4.69
_________________________
TPR
Mets 1.4

No Plays
Yankees>-150 1.5

**Tommygunn** · 08-11-11, 10:19 AM

Complimentary Selection for 8/11/2011

Take Cincinnati W/Cueto over Colorado W/Chacin NO PLAY if > -135

**Tommygunn** · 08-11-11, 10:28 AM

P/T Plays August.11.11

Wash

Filtered:

TB (>-150)
NYY (>-150)

**joeytunes** · 08-11-11, 05:37 PM

please let me know the ncaaf n nfl thread..when its ready

**Formulawiz** · 08-12-11, 06:48 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

Complimentary Selection for 8/11/2011

Take Cincinnati W/Cueto over Colorado W/Chacin NO PLAY if > -135

I see your point but in the world of betting the above example yesterday is as simple as can be. It basically says take CIN at -135 or less which the symbol tells us. Or you can interpret it as don't lay more then -135 if you take CIN. This is the norm in the world of sports wagering. Again I will say that if a sports service posts the play above as -150, its telling us take CIN no matter what the ML is.

**Formulawiz** · 08-12-11, 06:49 AM

ML system went 2-0, +2.35 units.

YTD 120-68, +39.2 units.

Plays later today.

**Formulawiz** · 08-12-11, 07:15 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

TOR, CWS?, TEX

By the way we are having a good discussion about the < and > symbols and no one should be mad at each other over this.

**Romanov** · 08-12-11, 07:54 AM

you could just think of them as absolute values.

formulawiz, how are you ml plays with a "?" different than the ones without?

**BrewMaster** · 08-12-11, 09:04 AM

Record since 15May11: 176-156 (+19.43 units)

Scientific Approach 12Aug11:

CLE
PIT
STL
SEA

Filtered (ANA)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**BetaB** · 08-12-11, 09:49 AM

formulawiz, i'm just curious about how play drop off. For instance yesterday plays were NYM -110 lose ,CIN -140 W,OAK +130 W. How come NYM was not a play?

**Tommygunn** · 08-12-11, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by BetaB

formulawiz, i'm just curious about how play drop off. For instance yesterday plays were NYM -110 lose ,CIN -140 W,OAK +130 W. How come NYM was not a play?

BetaB - There was not a 25 cent differential between the projected moneyline and the actual money line shortly before the game went off.

Romanov- When a question mark is applied it means that either that game is close to the 25 cent differential or close to falling out of the no play if >-140 parameter. Both the Money Line and Scientific Approach systems are strictly based on the lines so you have to watch the lines through the day and not place your bets on these system plays until shortly before those games start.

Hope this helps guys.

TG

BOL

**Romanov** · 08-12-11, 10:43 AM

Tg thanks for the info. Since all the lines are trending away from -140 they are probably going to be plays, right?

**Formulawiz** · 08-12-11, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

you could just think of them as absolute values.

formulawiz, how are you ml plays with a "?" different than the ones without?

The "?" is my way of saying that right now this team is a possible play and you should check the ML 15-20 minutes prior to start of game and see if this game falls in as a play.

**Formulawiz** · 08-12-11, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by BetaB

formulawiz, i'm just curious about how play drop off. For instance yesterday plays were NYM -110 lose ,CIN -140 W,OAK +130 W. How come NYM was not a play?

The game falls outside the 25 cent overlay.

**Tommygunn** · 08-12-11, 12:47 PM

Yesterday P/T System Went 0-1 = -1.03 Units
Start Date 06/12
56-43 +8.51u

**Tommygunn** · 08-12-11, 12:50 PM

Complimentary Selection for 8/12/2011

Take St Louis W/Lohse over Colorado W/Cook NO PLAY if > -140

**Tommygunn** · 08-12-11, 01:03 PM

P/T Plays August.12.11

SD (Cinn W2 but so has SD W2 so I'm calling it a play)
Cle (watch line np if >-150)

Filtered:

Phi (>-150)

**HoulihansTX** · 08-12-11, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official Start
(May 16 - Current)
Overall
(221-226) -2.10Units
__________________________
Filter: NP >-150

August 9
Bullpen Projection System
Wash 5.18 W (+145)
Cincy 3.84 L (-125)
Atl 2.68 W (-125)
SD 2.24 L (+125)
Cleve 1.67 W (-130)
__________________
TPR
Overall
(96-101)
-11.22Units

Boston 2.5 W (-130)
Mets 1.4 W (-135)

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

August 10
Bullpen System Projection
Tampa 4.86 W (-130)
Wash 4.21 L (+100)
Atl 1.70 W (-120)
_____________________
TPR
Mets 1.4 L (-140)

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

August 11
Bullpen System Projection
Balty 5.93 L (+110)
SD 4.74 W (+100)
Oak 2.94 W (+130)
Colo 1.37 L (+130)
Cubs 1.27 W (-115)
_________________________
TPR
Mets 1.4 L (-110)

March 26 - Current
Overall
(297-283) +24.77Units
__________________________
Filter: NP >-150

August 12
Bullpen Projection System
SD 6.06
Minny 4.71
Toronto 3.63
Atl 3.28
Seattle 1.66

No Plays
KC np L2 6.34
Zona np >-150 4.42
Brew np >-150 4.19
Stl np >-150 4.09
Florida np L2 4.02
Yanks np>-150 1.98
Hou np L2 1.98
Philly np>-150 1.78
__________________
TPR
Overall
(98-103)
-11.62Units

TX 1.7
Cincy 1.2

No Plays
Boston np >-150 3.0
Yanks np>-150 1.2
Brew np>-150 1.1

**Tommygunn** · 08-12-11, 04:08 PM

H/A Shiva?

**ShivaBowl** · 08-12-11, 04:30 PM

08/11/11
H/A System Plays Went 2-1
SDP –103 W
CIN –140 W
WAS –103 L
As of 06/01/11
95-81 +1.37Units

08/12/11
H/A System Plays
CLE
SDP
MLW ½ Unit

**Duvel** · 08-12-11, 04:48 PM

Reds on friday are dangerous.. I only like the Brewers here..

**Formulawiz** · 08-13-11, 06:01 AM

ML plays went 1-1, -0.35 units

YTD 121-69, +38.85

Plays later today

**BetaB** · 08-13-11, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

BetaB - There was not a 25 cent differential between the projected moneyline and the actual money line shortly before the game went off.

Romanov- When a question mark is applied it means that either that game is close to the 25 cent differential or close to falling out of the no play if >-140 parameter. Both the Money Line and Scientific Approach systems are strictly based on the lines so you have to watch the lines through the day and not place your bets on these system plays until shortly before those games start.

Hope this helps guys.

TG

BOL

Thank you for your answer, this is the first time i heard about the 25 cents overlay. So the projected moneyline is -140? and if any of the favorite drop below -115 it would be no play? Also, which look do you based your line on, for instnace Matchbook line would be considerable lower than other. THX

**Formulawiz** · 08-13-11, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by BetaB

Thank you for your answer, this is the first time i heard about the 25 cents overlay. So the projected moneyline is -140? and if any of the favorite drop below -115 it would be no play? Also, which look do you based your line on, for instnace Matchbook line would be considerable lower than other. THX

NO. You have to subtract the projected ML from the majority of actual ML's 15 to 20 minutes prior to game and then see if there is a 25 cent differential. Secondly, the -140 is the most you should lay after the 25 cent diff is met.

**Formulawiz** · 08-13-11, 07:57 AM

Todays ML plays. FAV must be < -140

CIN, TEX

**ShivaBowl** · 08-13-11, 08:32 AM

08/12/11
H/A System Plays Went 2-1
SDP –102 L
CLE –141 W
MLW –100 W 1/2u
As of 06/01/11
97-82 +1.87Units

08/13/11
H/A System Plays
TEX
CWS
ARZ
LAD 1/2unit
IF ARZ > -175 1/2Unit

**ShivaBowl** · 08-13-11, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

H/A Shiva?

Thanks TG

We have some nice plays today, with any luck, maybe someone, can close one out!
BOL

**ShivaBowl** · 08-13-11, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

Hey Shiva. I'm back in the game.

Welcome back Romanov

**BrewMaster** · 08-13-11, 10:00 AM

Record since 15May11: 178-158 (+19.43 units)

Scientific Approach 13Aug11:

ANA, np > -126
TB
TEX, np > -135
BOS

Filtered (SD)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**BetaB** · 08-13-11, 10:28 AM

Projected ML = Open line?