New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[Formulawiz]

It looks like only 2 systems are performing pretty well. We should concentrate on those. Any thoughts.

[str8sNUTZ]

Has anyone paid attention to picks that met more than 1 of the systems? Figure someone out there has kept stats on picks that have met 2 or more of the systems and how they fared.

[ShivaBowl]

07/29/11
H/A System Plays
CWS
SDP
TEX 1/2Unit
OAK

[jacktheknife]

ML plays went 1-0, +1 unit

YTD 105-60, +32.85 units

NO ML plays today

ML plays went 1-0, + 1 unit

YTD 106-60, +33.85 units

Sorry, but where did that extra win come from again?

[Tommygunn]

I posted today and my posts disappeared? Can someone tell me what happened? Did SBR remove them?

There wasn't really any plays for PT but I put up three half unit plays that had over 20 innings pitched differential.

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 2-0, +2.2 units. SD and SEA dropped out.

YTD 108-60, 36.05 units

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Sorry, but where did that extra win come from again?

You need to do your homework. CWS

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

ATL < -140, CIN < -125, LAD

[ShivaBowl]

07/28/11
H/A System Plays Went 0-3
BOS 1/2Unit –145 L
OAK –122 L
STL 1/2Unit - .97 L
Start Date 06/01
77-63 +5.58u

07/29/11
H/A System Plays
CWS –114 W
SDP –116 L
TEX 1/2Unit -.66 L
OAK –146 L
78-66 +3.30u

07/30/11
H/A System Plays
SFO
COL

[ShivaBowl]

I posted today and my posts disappeared? Can someone tell me what happened? Did SBR remove them? There wasn't really any plays for PT but I put up three half unit plays that had over 20 innings pitched differential.

P/T Plays July.28.11 Arz 1/2 Minn 1/2 Tor ? ( np if >-150) Filtered: Bos >-150 NP if >-150

I dont see anything for 07/29/11 BOL

[HoulihansTX]

July 30
Bullpen Projection System
KC 5.21
Minny 2.92
Pitt 2.76
Dodgers 2.57
CWS 2.20
SF 1.92
Angels 1.23

No Play
Yanks np>-150 7.35
SD np(Colo W2) 3.34
TX np(Toronto W2) 2.42
Wash np L2 2.28
Seattle np(Tampa W2) 1.66

TPR
Colo 1.5
Tampa 1.4
Mets 1.1
Cincy 1.0

No Play
Boston np L2 2.2
Zona np L2 1.0
Yanks np>-150 1.0

[SportBettingKing]

Source: Sportrends
You would be hard pressed to find any successful professional handicapper who does not have a definable bankroll, a season game plan to achieve profits and a clear understanding of finding an edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a system or method for guiding you.

One of the reasons baseball is so profitable to an experienced sports handicapper, is that it’s filled with numerous statistics not found in any other sport. No other sport breaks it down with such detail indicating which teams struggle with offensive and defensive inconsistencies. Our system analysis will pinpoint when a team is starting to produce at a higher rate.

Baseball is terrific for the number of statistics that are tracked during each game and they can paint a detailed picture of what to expect from teams offensively and defensively nearly every game.

Here you will be getting the Key advice and Handicapping Insights you Need to Win?
Our systems provide alternative strategies strictly based on statistics.
There are No Hunches, No Guesswork, No Opinions, Just Facts.
BOL

I don't think the value for baseball betting is in the stats, its in the money line. You can profit when the books have to pay a lot just to get people to bet on teams that are not bad at all.

Case in point today, 7-30-2011, is the Pirates at +230. Get real, a good team, .500 plus team on the road, getting +230???

You can keep on spending all of your time trying to analyze stats, but I will leave that up to the books and instead try to figure out when they are having to pay too much to balance things out.

Parity in the league makes the stats, even though there are more of them, less valuable than they are in sports with less parity.

IMHO

[Tommygunn]

Complimentary Selection for 7/30/2011

Take NY Mets W/Dickey over Washington W/Marquis NO PLAY if > -105

[Tommygunn]

P/T Plays July.30.11

Mil


NP if >-150

[ShivaBowl]

Covering for BM.
07/30/11
S/A System Plays
LAA, no play if LAA > -134
TAM, no play if TAM > -150
NYM, no play if NYM > -105
CIN, no play if CIN > -150

[BrewMaster]

Thanks Shiva, I had a prior commitment today. Will update tomorrow.

BM

[Formulawiz]

I don't think the value for baseball betting is in the stats, its in the money line. You can profit when the books have to pay a lot just to get people to bet on teams that are not bad at all.

Case in point today, 7-30-2011, is the Pirates at +230. Get real, a good team, .500 plus team on the road, getting +230???

You can keep on spending all of your time trying to analyze stats, but I will leave that up to the books and instead try to figure out when they are having to pay too much to balance things out.

Parity in the league makes the stats, even though there are more of them, less valuable than they are in sports with less parity.

IMHO

I would agree with you in all sports except for baseball. This sport is the only game in town where you can have a losing win/loss record and still make money. I agree with sportrends in that stats are very important if you know what you are looking at. Sportsbooks DO NOT make as much money in baseball as other sports and if they had a choice, they would get rid of it all together.

[Tommygunn]

P/T Plays July.30.11

Mil


NP if >-150

Sorry guys Mil's not a play. Line way over -150 limit

[ShivaBowl]

Sorry guys Mil's not a play. Line way over -150 limit

Hey TG, lets make these no play if >-150 filters plays, a 1/2 Unit play.
Think about it?
Thanks

Also, I think we should do the same for TPR, TX:?
We have to try to come up with something new with TPR to help stop the bleeding?
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

I don't think the value for baseball betting is in the stats, its in the money line. You can profit when the books have to pay a lot just to get people to bet on teams that are not bad at all. Case in point today, 7-30-2011, is the Pirates at +230. Get real, a good team, .500 plus team on the road, getting +230??? You can keep on spending all of your time trying to analyze stats, but I will leave that up to the books and instead try to figure out when they are having to pay too much to balance things out. Parity in the league makes the stats, even though there are more of them, less valuable than they are in sports with less parity. IMHO

Hey SportBettingKing, It is the odds maker’s job to confuse the general public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price, when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where the ML is way out of line.

Case in point your Pirates today, were a loser, if you took the time to look up all the stats
on this game, you would have found that Pit had no chance of winning today.

It's also not surprising that 95% of the betting public has no clue how Vegas arrives at their lines. The ability to win requires a unique understanding of all of the processes involved rather than implementing one specific strategy.

I have full confidence in our system tools and that they will be profitable by year-end.

I do agree with you on one point the M/L System and S/A System
should go back to the old spreadsheet thread next year, because they’re
systems are based on line moment.
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

I don't think the value for baseball betting is in the stats, its in the money line. Parity in the league makes the stats, even though there are more of them, less valuable than they are in sports with less parity. IMHO

I'm doing just fine this year using stats, also, I could not disagree more, with your parity analysis, when it comes to MLB.
If you stay on your current path using only the M/L the books will eventually cash you out.
BOL

http://contests.sbrforum.com/mlb-weekly-handicapping-contest-7-25-contest-2670/

[ShivaBowl]

07/30/11
H/A System Plays Went 1-1
SFO +102 L
COL +112 W
Start Date 06/01
79-67 +3.40u

07/31/11
H/A System Plays
ALL PLAYS ½ UNIT
CIN
ATL
PHI
MLW

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 2-1, +0.6 units

YTD 110-61, +36.65 units

Todays plays

WAS, LAD, DET, CWS

[HoulihansTX]

July 31
Bullpen Projection System
KC 6.18
Minny 3.55
Wash 3.31
TX 1.84
Dodgers 1.82
Tampa 1.15

No Play
SD np L2 3.08
Yanks np>-150 2.23
Hou np L2 1.46

TPR
Boston 2.2
Colo 1.6
Tampa 1.4
Cincy 1.0
Mets 1.0
Zona1.0

No Plays
Yanks np>-150 1.1

[Tommygunn]

P/T Plays July.31.11

Atl
Wash
Mil

Filtered:

CHC L5
NYY >-150


NP if >-150

[Tommygunn]

Complimentary Selection for 7/31/2011

Take Chi W Sox W/Buehrle over Boston W/Miller NO PLAY if > -115

[ShivaBowl]

Covering for BM.
07/30/11
S/A System Plays
LAA, no play if LAA > -134, -115 W
TAM, no play if TAM > -150, +107 L
NYM, no play if NYM > -105, No Play
CIN, no play if CIN > -150, -112 W
2-1 +1.00u

07/31/11
S/A System Plays
CLE if < -131
CIN if < -150
BOS if >+105
OAK if < -150
TAM if <-149
ARZ if <-124

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 1-2, -1.35

YTD 111-63, +35.3

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

NO ML plays today

[BrewMaster]

Covering for BM.
07/30/11
S/A System Plays
LAA, no play if LAA > -134, -115 W
TAM, no play if TAM > -150, +107 L
NYM, no play if NYM > -105, No Play
CIN, no play if CIN > -150, -112 W
2-1 +1.00u

07/31/11
S/A System Plays
CLE if < -131
CIN if < -150
BOS if >+105
OAK if < -150
TAM if <-149
ARZ if <-124

Guys, there have been issues at work that I've been managing. I am travelling the next 3 days so Shiva if you wouldn't mind tracking SA until I return that would be a great help.

[ShivaBowl]

07/31/11
H/A System Plays Went 3-1
Start Date 06/01
82-68 +4.17u

08/01/11
H/A System Plays
MLW
PHI

[ShivaBowl]

07/31/11
S/A System Plays
CLE –123 L
CIN No Play
BOS +108 W
OAK –144 W
TAM –126 W
ARZ +110 W
4-1 +2.95

08/01/11
S/A System Plays
CIN
STL
PHI
ARZ

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall (194-201) -2.53Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

July 29
Bullpen Projection System
KC 7.59 W (+115)
Pitt 3.85 L (+220)
CWS 2.84 W (-115)
Florida 2.68 L (+140)
Seattle 2.36 L (-105)
Mets 2.24 W (-115)
Minny 1.93 W (+130)
Hou 1.89 L (+???)
SF 1.72 L (-110)
Angels 1.34 L (+120)
________________
TPR
(80-93) –19.33Units

Boston 2.2 L (+105)
Tampa 1.4 W (-105)
Mets 1.1 W (-115)

July 30
Bullpen Projection System
KC 5.21 L (+140)
Minny 2.92 L (+120)
Pitt 2.76 L (+220)
Dodgers 2.57 L (-140)
CWS 2.20 L (+140)
SF 1.92 L (+100)
Angels 1.23 W (-115)
___________
TPR
Colo 1.5 W (-130)
Tampa 1.4 L (+110)
Mets 1.1 L (-120)
Cincy 1.0 W (-110)

July 31
Bullpen Projection System
KC 6.18 W (+110)
Minny 3.55 L (+130)
Wash 3.31 W (-120)
TX 1.84 L (-105)
Dodgers 1.82 L (-120)
Tampa 1.15 W (-125)
_______________
TPR
Boston 2.2 W (+105)
Colo 1.6 L (-110)
Tampa 1.4 W (-125)
Cincy 1.0 Np>-150
Mets 1.0 L (+110)
Zona1.0 W (+115)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(202-216) -9.78Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

Aug 1
Bullpen Projection System
Philly 5.34
Florida 2.83
Oak 2.67

No Plays
SF np L2 2.69
Pitt np L2 1.14
________________
TPR
(87-98) –17.47Units

Zona 1.2

No Plays
Boston np>-150 1.9
Yanks np>-150 1.7

[Tommygunn]

Yesterday P/T System Went 1-1 = -0.46 Units
Start Date 06/12
46-35 +6.66u

[Tommygunn]

Complimentary Selection for 8/1/2011

Take Florida W/Vazquez over NY Mets W/Pelfrey NO PLAY if NYM < -120