New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**BetaB** · 08-16-11, 08:42 AM

how do i find out that the projected line is?

**str8sNUTZ** · 08-16-11, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by BetaB

how do i find out that the projected line is?

www.sportrends.com

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

**Romanov** · 08-16-11, 09:36 AM

Formulawiz,

Why do you set the cut off at 140, why not 175?

**HoulihansTX** · 08-16-11, 09:47 AM

August 16
Bullpen Projection System
CWS 3.18
Balty 2.24
Cubs 2.18
Wash 2.14
SF 1.86
Mets 1.75

No Play
StL np>-150 7.23
Det np>-150 5.58
Toronto np(Sea W2) 4.15
FL np L2 2.55

TPR
TX 1.5
Mets 1.4

No Play
Toronto np(Sea W2) 1.7
Boston np>-150 1.6
StL np>-150 1.5
Det np L2 1.3
Yanks np>-150 1.1
Brew np>-150 1.0

**Soon2BRich** · 08-16-11, 09:50 AM

wow never been in this thread before. so whose is the website? making some serious coin on that site. 68 units in mlb and 81 units in nba, is that all from the free plays on the site?

**Formulawiz** · 08-16-11, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

Formulawiz,

Why do you set the cut off at 140, why not 175?

That is one of our filters

**815Sox** · 08-16-11, 10:13 AM

interesting idea... people often do not realize just how good the White Sox bullpen is. It is probably the best in the entire league (seriously). They were losing earlier because they were not able to score a single damn run for the life of them.

**barts185** · 08-16-11, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Soon2BRich

wow never been in this thread before. so whose is the website? making some serious coin on that site. 68 units in mlb and 81 units in nba, is that all from the free plays on the site?

No. That is the alleged record of the pay service, which isn't tracked anywhere (at least, not from any inquiries I have ever made - if anyone knows that it is tracked anywhere please correct this)

This is not to be taken as saying I either believe, or don't believe it. I'm just saying it isn't tracked independently and as with all such claims, caveat emptor.

**barts185** · 08-16-11, 10:33 AM

It seems like they still are having issues with Ubaldo Jimenez. Two of the pages say 13.0 innings pitched, one says 136.0 and one says 5.0

I believe the 136.0 number to be correct.

**Tommygunn** · 08-16-11, 11:31 AM

Aug.15.11 P/T went 0-1 for -0.5 units. Start date 06/12.
59-46 + 8.74 u.

**Tommygunn** · 08-16-11, 11:42 AM

P/T Aug.16.11

CHC
TEX

**Tommygunn** · 08-16-11, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by barts185

It seems like they still are having issues with Ubaldo Jimenez. Two of the pages say 13.0 innings pitched, one says 136.0 and one says 5.0

I believe the 136.0 number to be correct.

Barts 136IP is correct for U.Jimenez:

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=434622

Thanks for staying on top of that. I would of never noticed.

BOL

**steve3402** · 08-16-11, 02:38 PM

Hi Formulawiz,

Aren't the Cin and Atl picks eliminated because of the 20 innings pitched criteria?

**Tommygunn** · 08-16-11, 05:32 PM

SA

ARZ

(someone please check, not sure if i'm doing it right)

**ShivaBowl** · 08-17-11, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

SA ARZ (someone please check, not sure if i'm doing it right)

Thanks TG,
Yesterdays S/A Plays
ARZ if > +193 W
NYY if < - 240 W No play filter > -150
OAK if < - 226 W No play L/4
1-0 + 2.20units

**ShivaBowl** · 08-17-11, 07:05 AM

MLB 2011 Premium Internet Service Plays 143 - 67 ( + 70.0 Units )

Complimentary Selection from Sportrends for 8/17/2011

Take Texas W/Wilson over LA Angels W/Santana NO PLAY if LAA < -115

**Formulawiz** · 08-17-11, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by barts185

No. That is the alleged record of the pay service, which isn't tracked anywhere (at least, not from any inquiries I have ever made - if anyone knows that it is tracked anywhere please correct this)

This is not to be taken as saying I either believe, or don't believe it. I'm just saying it isn't tracked independently and as with all such claims, caveat emptor.

I can verify sportrends internet service record. I have been a customer of theirs for over 15 years. As a matter of fact they went 2-0 yesterday, dropped a winner due to line constraints and won the free pick. The free picks have been on fire the entire season for all sports. Secondly most of these tracking companies are bullshit anyway and I would not trust them. I followed another big sports company many years ago and their performance was not in line with the win/loss records that were being posted by these monitoring services.

**Formulawiz** · 08-17-11, 07:17 AM

ML plays went 3-1, +1.8 units. CWS dropped out

YTD 129-71, +44.7 units plays later today

**Formulawiz** · 08-17-11, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by barts185

It seems like they still are having issues with Ubaldo Jimenez. Two of the pages say 13.0 innings pitched, one says 136.0 and one says 5.0

I believe the 136.0 number to be correct.

I would use the 13 innings pitched due to the fact he is no longer pitching in the same league. Therefore I would pass this game if the play were on CLE. Obviously the play was on CWS which brought us all a nice win yesterday.

**ShivaBowl** · 08-17-11, 07:53 AM

08/17/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays
Filtered Out
CIN
PHI
NYY
MLW
TOR
As of 06/01/11
101-82 +5.37Units

**BetaB** · 08-17-11, 07:54 AM

might sound stupid. But, i just can't understand how game being selected.

Yesterday projected line for Braves and Padres were -115 and +140 respectively, before the game actual ML ended up around -140 and -125 respective. Now, according to the example on sport trend web site "EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent."

shouldn't Giants and Mets be the plays?? Common sense tell me that projected line mean, line that sport trend think representing the real probability of game outcome and "the right play" = when bookies line is at least 25 cents better than projected line.

Thank you.

**Formulawiz** · 08-17-11, 08:36 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

HOU, SD?, COL, CWS?

**prolexus** · 08-17-11, 08:44 AM

Thx Formulawiz.
Is there a way to ask you a question re:Sportrends?

kindest regards.

**BrewMaster** · 08-17-11, 09:55 AM

Record since 15May11: TBD

Scientific Approach 17Aug11:

TB
NYM
DET, np > -129
ATL, np > -130
FLA, np > -109
TEX, np > -109

Filtered (CIN, LA)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**Tommygunn** · 08-17-11, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

ML plays went 3-1, +1.8 units. CWS dropped out

YTD 129-71, +44.7 units plays later today

Wiz,

I have no idea how you get all these plays yeasterday?

SD - A play for sure
Atl - Maybe (finished at -139 Pinnacle, -138 Dimes, -141 Greek)

Tex - Not a chance (LAA only finished with a 0.16 discrepancy)
Cinn - Close but ( Wash only finished with a 0.21 discrepancy)

Are you doing something different than basing plays off the home teams line like Sportrends does?
If you could explain it to me i would appreciate it.

Thanks,

TG

**HoulihansTX** · 08-17-11, 10:45 AM

August 17
Bullpen System Projection
Det 6.13
Cubs 4.93
Toronto 4.53
Fla 4.30
Boston 1.36

[U]No Play[/U
StL np L2 3.53
Balty np L2 3.27
SF np L2 2.68
Brew np>-150 1.72
KC np L2 1.50
Philly np>-150 1.00
_______________________
TPR
Toronto 1.7
TX 1.5
Boston 1.5
Det 1.3
Mets 1.3

No Play
StL np L2 1.5
Yanks np>-150 1.1
Brew np>-150 1.0

**Tommygunn** · 08-17-11, 12:14 PM

Aug.16.11 P/T went 1-1 for -0.4 units. Start date 06/12.
60-47 + 8.34 u.

**Tommygunn** · 08-17-11, 12:23 PM

P/T Aug.17.11

CWS
Minn 1/2
SD 1/2

NP if >-150

Filtered:

Philly (>-150)
NYY (>-150)

**Tommygunn** · 08-17-11, 12:26 PM

Complimentary Selection for 8/17/2011

Take Texas W/Wilson over LA Angels W/Santana NO PLAY if LAA < -115

**Formulawiz** · 08-18-11, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by prolexus

Thx Formulawiz.
Is there a way to ask you a question re:Sportrends?

kindest regards.

Sure ask away

**Formulawiz** · 08-18-11, 06:38 AM

ML plays went 2-0, +2.0 units

Here are yesterday's plays
HOU W, SD out, COL W, CWS out

YTD 131-71, +46.7 units

Plays later today.

**Formulawiz** · 08-18-11, 07:30 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

SF, SD, CLE?

**prolexus** · 08-18-11, 07:50 AM

Attention Formulawiz.

I believe Sportrends to be an honest and fair website. I have tried the premium service several times with mediocre success as I can never seem to (within reason) match their plays with the line constraints. Especially on football with the half-point difference, I tend to always pick up an extra loser or two and short a winner or two. This makes for a huge difference on the actual units won/lost of their record versus mine.

I read with interest that you have been a client of theirs for numerous years. Therefore, are you successfully (within reason) matching their record? I notice they typically look for "public" moves and go the other way and layoff a game with "public steam."

Can you recommend/suggest an orderly approach do determine which selections are a go? specific website? specific time? etc. It has been a real challenge for me....For example, last year, on a NFL Sunday, I used Pinnacle to make my wagers 10 minutes before KickOff. Of the 5 recommendations, 3 were within the line constraints, record 1-2. Next day the Sportrends record was 2-0. That is a HUGE difference of 3.2 units.

Your thoughts are welcomed.
Kindest regards.

**ShivaBowl** · 08-18-11, 08:53 AM

08/17/11
H/A System Plays
No Plays
As of 06/01/11
101-82 +5.37Units

08/18/11
H/A System Plays
WAS
SDP

**Zion21** · 08-18-11, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140.

SF, SD, CLE?

Wondering the same question myself for 5dimes.