System Integrity 2011

**OTL** · 04-15-11, 12:03 PM

If you go by their lines Covers has Atl opening at -205 and Philly opening at -180...

**slapshot** · 04-15-11, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by OTL

If you go by their lines Covers has Atl opening at -205 and Philly opening at -180...

are you looking at pinnacle???

**OTL** · 04-15-11, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by slapshot

are you looking at pinnacle???

No, just the consensus at the top.

**slapshot** · 04-15-11, 12:12 PM

ok there is the discrepancy....the research is based on pinnacle.....good luck whatever you play

**dlunc3** · 04-15-11, 09:07 PM

we got screwed tonight... oswalt was rolling and then got hurt, then retarded uncle charlie has no clue how to manage..

**TheJames** · 04-15-11, 09:52 PM

Well get em tomorrow

**honeyeater** · 04-16-11, 12:25 AM

4/16 - TOR @ BOS -210 That's the play- (of coarse I'm never 100% sure lately because people always seem to correct me.

**Brian891** · 04-16-11, 12:35 AM

honeyeater i respect your balls. i know the sox have to start winning sometime, but damn its hardto put money on a 2-10 team with no heart and no pitching. although, beckett is probably the only guy who gives effort and has some grit on that staff.

**slapshot** · 04-16-11, 04:21 AM

5-5-5-1 -2.31
saturday
boston -1 to win 8.31

the longest stretch to win 4 games after a three game losing streak last 5 years is 11 games....with boston today, we are up to 10.

**floridagolfer** · 04-16-11, 05:46 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

honeyeater i respect your balls. i know the sox have to start winning sometime, but damn its hardto put money on a 2-10 team with no heart and no pitching. although, beckett is probably the only guy who gives effort and has some grit on that staff.

Agreed. It's not the easiest thing in the world to back Boston today.

If the Red Sox don't watch it, they'll be out of contention on May Day.

**do5000** · 04-16-11, 08:40 AM

early game today

**TheJames** · 04-16-11, 12:14 PM

I dont have the balls to lay that much juice on a struggling Boston team so I went with the Rockies

Good luck to the whole lot of us

**SkivChef** · 04-16-11, 12:55 PM

2 run first, then strand the bases loaded with no outs

**dlunc3** · 04-16-11, 03:37 PM

WINNER

back to the A bet amount completed recovered

**soldier1047** · 04-16-11, 03:59 PM

Awesome day!

**wan-ro-chi** · 04-16-11, 04:23 PM

Boston again tomorrow

**DustyDiamond** · 04-16-11, 05:11 PM

Nice win today everyone!!

**dlunc3** · 04-17-11, 08:05 AM

I love this system, and have already made good money with it this season...

Slapshot, this is the question that I have for you...something I have been thinking about... Once the season gets going, the average game for us will be approx. -200. With a $10,000 roll, betting to win 1% would be $100 per game.
Based on your history, it appears that there most likely will be a 5 game loss at some point. Using 1% at -200 odds, this is what it will look like:

Game 1: Risk 200 to win 100---Loss

Game 2: Risk 600 to win 300---Loss

Game 3: Risk 1800 to win 900 ---Loss

Divide 2700 by 4 = $675

Game 4: Risk 1550 to win 775 (675 + 100)---Loss

Game 5: Risk 4650 to win 2325---Loss

Game 6: Risk 13950 to win 6975--- WIN

So, if we suffer a 5 game losing streak, we will be forced to wager 139.5% of our bank roll on bet 6 correct? And after 5 games, we will already be down $8,800 or 88% of our bankroll, is that correct? Maybe -200 is being a little extreme, but I think -175 may be about right, and even with that, seems like we may be way over our heads if we suffer a 5 game loss, dont you think? Not trying to question you, as I love the system so far, but how have you handled a situation like this in the past?

**slapshot** · 04-17-11, 11:37 AM

6-5-5-1 +6
sunday
boston -1 to win 1

nice clean-up by boston yesterday

**slapshot** · 04-17-11, 01:27 PM

dlunc3, it's definitely a legitimate question. to get a clearer picture of what the damage actually would look like....lets have at the real world data.

on 3 occasions last 5 years we've had a 5 games losing streak.
these were the teams and odds:

june 2006
laa -256
laa push
hou -234
nym -240
hou -236
cle -155

july 2007
cle -186
bos -210
min -183
bos -175
nyy -255

september 2009
this losing streak started on sep 20th. i will disregard this losing streak due to the exit strategy i recommend. the regular season ended on sep 30th 2009, leaving 11 games to recover a 3 game losing streak. to recover a 3 game losing streak, we need a total of 12 games. that means i will call it a season if we have win on the night with 13 games left of the season.
for this season, if we have win on 16th of september, we are done for the year.

so let's focus on the two losing streaks 06 and 07. they are definitely expensive......can something similar happen again? yes, without a doubt.....nothing new under the sun.

if a 5 game losing streak happens early in the season it will most likely not be that expensive since the biggest ml favorites are more expensive later in season when the teams have established themselves and lines makers have better insight what they are dealing with.

my suggestion is to not change the amount you increase the bankroll with......if you start the season betting to win $1......you bet to win $1 also when you are up 50 units.

a 5 game losing streak a few months into the season means that your bankroll is bigger from accumulated units from the previous months....to be used to recoup the losing streak.

to be able to handle a cold streak, the 1% to-win unit size might need consideration?

this is my second season playing the system so i have not experienced a five game losing streak.

creative ideas how better deal with losing streaks than what i've been talked about earlier in the thread are welcome.

**TheJames** · 04-17-11, 04:07 PM

I think I'm gonna drop out of this system for now, just too risky for me.

**soldier1047** · 04-17-11, 07:41 PM

Nice writeup, Slapshot! Good $ making tool.

**Slanina** · 04-17-11, 08:33 PM

I'm jumping in on this system once another week goes by and the season becomes a little more settled.

**honeyeater** · 04-18-11, 02:03 AM

So I've got PIT for today yes?

**honeyeater** · 04-18-11, 02:08 AM

I am still confused how to see the visitors odds on Pinnacle when I go into line history on covers. All they show is the home teams. So if it is +122 for LAD (Like today) how do I know what ATL is? I figure it's not a bigger fav then PIT at -159 but what if say LAD was +140? How would I know what is the other team's payout is on Pinnacle? Covers has a average (I guess) opening but it's not Pinnacle. Can someone please help? Thank you

**allenc85** · 04-18-11, 04:33 AM

i have cincinnati at -160, not pitt... and not sure how to use covers either

**slapshot** · 04-18-11, 07:05 AM

7-5-5-1 +7
monday
cincinnati -1 to win 1

The line history at covers only shows the home line……..so if the home team is an underdog you won’t see the line of the away favorite.

Using the info on covers you need to look for "large" numbers.....favorites and underdogs.

Over the last year I have a built a list where I can see the favorite odds is based on what odds the underdog has.

I know it’s not a quick easy peek at the odds and you’re done if we are dealing with big home underdogs…

To get quick overview…….sbr odds is really good…but my impression is that covers is more accurate and I would like to get the confirmation at covers.

**atari5200** · 04-18-11, 11:33 PM

phillies will be a strong play and a solid favorite of the day.

**floridagolfer** · 04-19-11, 04:14 AM

Yep, for Tuesday it's a B game with the Phillies and Halladay (-200, +100).

**slapshot** · 04-19-11, 04:56 AM

7-6-5-1 +5.84
tuesday
philly with halladay -1 to win 2.16

**Slanina** · 04-19-11, 11:34 AM

Lets do this Halladay! First bet of the year with the system. It's go time!

**slapshot** · 04-20-11, 06:24 AM

7-7-5-1 +2.62
wednesday
philly again with lee -1 to win 5.38

i didn't see that coming....halladay and philly giving up 9 ....scoring 0.
early start today.

**do5000** · 04-20-11, 06:54 AM

that was really ugly...

**floridagolfer** · 04-20-11, 07:04 AM

Wednesday will be the 20th play of the season and already the eighth time we've been on Philly.

**teecee** · 04-20-11, 09:15 AM

philly, again. sure would be nice to see some variety. phillies bats have not been looking great.