System Integrity 2011

[dlunc3]

there are different variations of this system out there.

i will play this chase system with these criteria

* pick the biggest favorite of the day, play them -1
* minimum of 3 games per day
* if race for the biggest favorite is a tie….pick game with highest total
* pinnacle opening lines are used to select the game

i have researched the last five seasons....to avoid losing streaks is by far the most important thing in playing any system..including this one.

longest losing streaks based on the criteria above:
2006 - 5 games
2007 - 5 games
2008 - 3 games
2009 - 5 games
2010 - 4 games

my research hasn't indicated that the system is less successful at the start of the season then other periods of the season so the plays starts today.

if anyone is playing the system differently...feel free to post your strategy.

Has your backtesting been used using pinnacles opening lines? Wouldnt it be easier to use a site like covers.com this way we can look any time throughout the day to see what the opening line was? or can you do this with pinnacle?

[dlunc3]

based on covers opening lines, NYY will be tomorrows B bet.. bol

[honeyeater]

there are different variations of this system out there.

i will play this chase system with these criteria

* pick the biggest favorite of the day, play them -1
* minimum of 3 games per day
* if race for the biggest favorite is a tie….pick game with highest total
* pinnacle opening lines are used to select the game

i have researched the last five seasons....to avoid losing streaks is by far the most important thing in playing any system..including this one.

longest losing streaks based on the criteria above:
2006 - 5 games
2007 - 5 games
2008 - 3 games
2009 - 5 games
2010 - 4 games

my research hasn't indicated that the system is less successful at the start of the season then other periods of the season so the plays starts today.

if anyone is playing the system differently...feel free to post your strategy.

Do you know how many games went the the 5th, 4th etc? per year?- I know most likely not since it seems like a difficult thing to do.

[do5000]

based on covers opening lines, NYY will be tomorrows B bet.. bol

gotta like Sabathia at home

[slapshot]

1-2-1 -0.05
tuesday...i have phillies opening as the biggest favorite at both covers and sbr.

the answer to the question if the research was made on opening lines...yes.
the reason why opening lines are used to select the pick is consistency.

you can have the biggest favorite moving between three, four teams during the day leading up to game start.
if two or more teams open up as the equally big favorites...the game with the highest total is selected as the pick of the day. this is how the back testing was made.

the reason why the pinnacle opening line was selected is becuase they usually first to release odds......and they are generally considered as the most accurate bookie out there.

[slapshot]

this is what the losing streak record looks like

.......2006.....2007....2008....2009.... 2010
3.......3..........1.........6.........1 .........1
4.......0..........3.........0.........1 .........1
5.......1..........1.........0.........3 .........0


the number to the left is number of games in the losing streak and under the year you have the number of streaks.

keep in mind that some of these streaks had some pushes mixed in......so if you played -1.5 the numbers would have been a lot uglier.

[slapshot]

philly -1 is recorded as the play tuesday 5th of april

[TheJames]

In baseball do you get the best odds when they are first announced or when the game moves closer to starting? Or is there no relation?

[Hip2Bsq]

Ebbs and flows...

[dlunc3]

looking like an early C bet tomorrow...lets hope carp can deliver for stl.

[honeyeater]

Look like (so far) Cinn is actually the bet tomorrow- correct? they opened at -205 and STL opened at -203. Also I'm looking a covers- in their Pinnacle line. Is that correct? It seems that they are the sponsor today so they show the opening odds- but on their website they don't. How do you know Pinnacle's opening odds?

[honeyeater]

1-2-1 -0.05
tuesday...i have phillies opening as the biggest favorite at both covers and sbr.

the answer to the question if the research was made on opening lines...yes.
the reason why opening lines are used to select the pick is consistency.

you can have the biggest favorite moving between three, four teams during the day leading up to game start.
if two or more teams open up as the equally big favorites...the game with the highest total is selected as the pick of the day. this is how the back testing was made.

the reason why the pinnacle opening line was selected is becuase they usually first to release odds......and they are generally considered as the most accurate bookie out there.

1st- I had NY Yankees at -205 for today-
2nd What do you mean by "the highest total"? The highest total what? Do you mean the sum of both teams. So if NYY where -200 and the LAA were +100 the total would be 100? And is that total for the opening odds?
Thank you

[honeyeater]

philly -1 is recorded as the play tuesday 5th of april

Are you looking at the RL or ML? I'm still confused why NYY were not the pick today?

[honeyeater]

this is the record
year - wins - losses - push - rain - units

2006 - 91 - 49 - 34 - 2 +91
2007 - 88 - 65 - 23 - 0 +88
2008 - 90 - 47 - 36 - 1 +90
2009 - 94 - 61 - 19 - 1 +94
2010 - 97 - 47 - 24 - 2 +97

I understand 2010 but the rest? Are there not 162 games a year? If you are playing only one game a day (the fav) How do you get 174 for 2009 and so on?
Thanks-

[Stevedore]

this is how i will play:
after a 3 game losing streak i will add the losses up.
i will divide this total by four.

the next game is played to recoup 1/4 of the total lost during the 3 game losing streak.
this is repeated until four games are won.

only once has the system lost another three games in a row before winning four games when chasing 1/4 of the initial loss....based on the five year research.

on average, the system need 6 games to collect four wins after a 3 game losing streak.

the is unit size adjusted and the bankroll is big enough to cover a scenario where i lose first three at "first" level and three at "second" level.

my unit size is to increase the bankroll with 1%.

like i said in the other "system integrity" thread.....you need a rather big bankroll and unit size ($wise not %wise) to make this strategy worthwhile......with a 100 buck bankroll i would opt for some other strategy.

Is a $2000 bankroll to small for this? What would be your unit size based on 2k? thanks..

[slapshot]

the keyword to find the biggest favorite is moneyline, ml.
to find the line opener at covers, go to match up, line history.
you can also get the opener here at sbr, go to "live odds" at the top of the page. you can configure the site to display the pinnacle opener.

[slapshot]

1st- I had NY Yankees at -205 for today-
2nd What do you mean by "the highest total"? The highest total what? Do you mean the sum of both teams. So if NYY where -200 and the LAA were +100 the total would be 100? And is that total for the opening odds?
Thank you

check your bookie....they will most likely have different markets for the games run line, moneyline and totals - over, under...hope that explains.

[slapshot]

I understand 2010 but the rest? Are there not 162 games a year? If you are playing only one game a day (the fav) How do you get 174 for 2009 and so on?
Thanks-

do you mean we should play only 162 games during a season? that would mean all teams would a game a night from april to end of september without a single day of rest....that's not the case.

[slapshot]

Is a $2000 bankroll to small for this? What would be your unit size based on 2k? thanks..

no bankroll is too small but if you have small bankroll, playing to win one dollar a day for example is useless if you ask me.

a bankroll of $2000 is definitely not too small. how you choose to recoup a losing streak dictates how big your unit size should be. with my strategy described in a previous post i'd bet to increase the bankroll with $20.

[slapshot]

2-3-1 -2.52
wednesday
st louis cardinals -1, -131

[do5000]

2-3-1 -2.52
wednesday
st louis cardinals -1, -131

game is at 1:45

[atari5200]

i checked the opening lines on pinnacle and it was definitely the reds at -205.

[dlunc3]

i checked the opening lines on pinnacle and it was definitely the reds at -205.

Not true....

Houst. at Cincy
Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
04/05/11 4:26:23 PM -195 (Open) OFF



Pitt at Stl
Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
04/05/11 4:16:23 PM -203 (Open) OFF

[atari5200]

my apologies.

[dlunc3]

my apologies.

Wish you were right though! that was ugly...

[dlunc3]

this is how i will play:
after a 3 game losing streak i will add the losses up.
i will divide this total by four.

the next game is played to recoup 1/4 of the total lost during the 3 game losing streak.
this is repeated until four games are won.

only once has the system lost another three games in a row before winning four games when chasing 1/4 of the initial loss....based on the five year research.

on average, the system need 6 games to collect four wins after a 3 game losing streak.

the is unit size adjusted and the bankroll is big enough to cover a scenario where i lose first three at "first" level and three at "second" level.

my unit size is to increase the bankroll with 1%.

like i said in the other "system integrity" thread.....you need a rather big bankroll and unit size ($wise not %wise) to make this strategy worthwhile......with a 100 buck bankroll i would opt for some other strategy.

So since we have already reached the longest losing streak from the 2008 season, we now spend the next 6 games (hopefully no more then that--as mentioned above), to get even for what we lost the last three days? Look forward to your clear instruction slapshot as your theory on this is new to me, as im sure it is to a few others...so hopefully we get through it as history suggests!

[slapshot]

going into thursday's action the record is
2-4-1 -8.13

tough to take a three games losing streak this early....this cold streak has accumulated a total of -10.13 units.
if you are following my strategy, we'll split up the total on the next four wins 10.13/4 --> 2,53 units.

so, going into thursday's action, which seems to be philly and halladay we'll bet to win 3,53.

if we have another three games losing streak at this "second" level, we'll recoup that loss after the "10,13" is won back....two times last five years a second three games losing streak has struck the system...

if you opt to go for a straight chase, you'll bet to win 11.13 on halladay
if you play this system with a labby line you would bet to win 5.9 on philly.
if there are other ideas how to recoup the loss.....feel free to post.

[TheJames]

I'm just doing your method but recouping losses after 4th game instead of 3rd

[dlunc3]

going into thursday's action the record is
2-4-1 -8.13

tough to take a three games losing streak this early....this cold streak has accumulated a total of -10.13 units.
if you are following my strategy, we'll split up the total on the next four wins 10.13/4 --> 2,53 units.

so, going into thursday's action, which seems to be philly and halladay we'll bet to win 3,53.

if we have another three games losing streak at this "second" level, we'll recoup that loss after the "10,13" is won back....two times last five years a second three games losing streak has struck the system...

if you opt to go for a straight chase, you'll bet to win 11.13 on halladay
if you play this system with a labby line you would bet to win 5.9 on philly.
if there are other ideas how to recoup the loss.....feel free to post.

sounds good to me... lets get it done..

[DustyDiamond]

Glad to have found everyone, I have been busy lately and haven't had much time. Slapshot how many games are you chasing? Also last year I think we used a min of 5 games for the day for a play, I could be wrong though.

[atari5200]

it should've been the reds. the opening lines were so close to each other and the reds line held on strong while the cards lines dropped. I guess judgement plays no part in this system.

[dlunc3]

it should've been the reds. the opening lines were so close to each other and the reds line held on strong while the cards lines dropped. I guess judgement plays no part in this system.

yea i liked the reds more too, but you gotta set a guideline or it would be almost impossible...it would turn into capping, not a system.. all the backtesting was done with opening lines, so hopefully that starts to payoff here pretty soon!

[slapshot]

Glad to have found everyone, I have been busy lately and haven't had much time. Slapshot how many games are you chasing? Also last year I think we used a min of 5 games for the day for a play, I could be wrong though.

i take a three game losing streak...you can read about the strategy in previous posts.

[slapshot]

2-4-1 -8.13
thursday
philly -1, -138......to win 3.53

[DustyDiamond]

What bet are you on? A, B or C?