System Integrity 2011

**slapshot** · 03-31-11, 11:14 AM

first play of the season
stl cardinals -1 , -122

**soldier1047** · 03-31-11, 11:18 AM

Good luck!!

**soldier1047** · 03-31-11, 11:20 AM

Do you have records of those years? I seen the -1.5 records but not the -1 runlines.

**slapshot** · 03-31-11, 01:48 PM

this is the record
year - wins - losses - push - rain - units

2006 - 91 - 49 - 34 - 2 +91
2007 - 88 - 65 - 23 - 0 +88
2008 - 90 - 47 - 36 - 1 +90
2009 - 94 - 61 - 19 - 1 +94
2010 - 97 - 47 - 24 - 2 +97

**SkivChef** · 03-31-11, 02:10 PM

I believe 5 dimes has a minus 1 line

**Van G** · 03-31-11, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by soldier1047

Do you have records of those years? I seen the -1.5 records but not the -1 runlines.

you just average the -1.5 RL with the normal line in order to equate a -1 RL

for example: lay $50 on the -1.5 RL then lay another $100 on the normal line to average it out to a -1 RL

simple math & you can download a Excel calculator on-line to help you calculate it

**do5000** · 03-31-11, 03:18 PM

nice to see this thread get updated. good luck guys

**SkivChef** · 03-31-11, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by slapshot

there are different variations of this system out there.

i will play this chase system with these criteria

* pick the biggest favorite of the day, play them -1
* minimum of 3 games per day
* if race for the biggest favorite is a tie….pick game with highest total
* pinnacle opening lines are used to select the game

i have researched the last five seasons....to avoid losing streaks is by far the most important thing in playing any system..including this one.

longest losing streaks based on the criteria above:
2006 - 5 games
2007 - 5 games
2008 - 3 games
2009 - 5 games
2010 - 4 games

my research hasn't indicated that the system is less successful at the start of the season then other periods of the season so the plays starts today.

if anyone is playing the system differently...feel free to post your strategy.

U chasin 6 times?

**slapshot** · 03-31-11, 05:13 PM

this is how i will play:
after a 3 game losing streak i will add the losses up.
i will divide this total by four.

the next game is played to recoup 1/4 of the total lost during the 3 game losing streak.
this is repeated until four games are won.

only once has the system lost another three games in a row before winning four games when chasing 1/4 of the initial loss....based on the five year research.

on average, the system need 6 games to collect four wins after a 3 game losing streak.

the is unit size adjusted and the bankroll is big enough to cover a scenario where i lose first three at "first" level and three at "second" level.

my unit size is to increase the bankroll with 1%.

like i said in the other "system integrity" thread.....you need a rather big bankroll and unit size ($wise not %wise) to make this strategy worthwhile......with a 100 buck bankroll i would opt for some other strategy.

**Jasonal_98** · 03-31-11, 05:22 PM

I'm looking forward to tailing this thread this year. Thanks.

**slapshot** · 04-01-11, 05:34 AM

0-1 -1.35
friday
philly -1, -183

**floridagolfer** · 04-01-11, 05:48 AM

I'll certainly play this again this year. I'm with a new outfit this year and I'll have to see if it offers a -1 line. To have those one-run wins that become pushes instead of losses would be nice. Good luck to everyone.

**do5000** · 04-01-11, 07:29 AM

tough game yesterday.
phi today.
anybody else putting PHI and COL in a parlay?

**floridagolfer** · 04-02-11, 05:30 AM

It's the Phillies (Cliff Lee, -255, -115) again on Saturday.

**maxgohan** · 04-02-11, 02:26 PM

in on this thread

what would the calculation be to avg the ML and RL to -1??

i.e. Phillies are ML -240 and RL -104...

so i guess i just put 100 on the ML and 100 on the RL??

**venture** · 04-02-11, 04:10 PM

Does anyone have the -1 calculator, i looked online and could not find it. thanks

**shinnman** · 04-02-11, 05:37 PM

i love this thread and want to tail, who has -1 lines , went to 5dimes , they have -1.5 as well as .5 but not -1 or was i just missing it

**allenc85** · 04-02-11, 06:38 PM

-1 RL Calculator is attached

Attached Files

-1 RL.xls (14.0 KB, 332 views)

**maxgohan** · 04-02-11, 06:52 PM

sick buzz!
uploaded it for everyone to use!

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AvLbd4i8Z34EdHRHdTV2dndrUTdrSDRUSGFRQU9RSEE&hl=en

**PALLETIZE** · 04-02-11, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by shinnman

i love this thread and want to tail, who has -1 lines , went to 5dimes , they have -1.5 as well as .5 but not -1 or was i just missing it

If you are talking about Sundays games, they don't usually offer the -1 run line until a little closer to game time.

**PALLETIZE** · 04-03-11, 12:30 AM

Labby Question

Has anyone tried runing a Labby line for each of the 6 chase bets on this system a,b,c etc. etc.? I followed this system last year useing the -1.5 run line. Checking back I found that the A bet had some rather long losing streaks but the B and C bets done pretty well. I was just wondering if someone might have the stats on how the results would have been when useing the -1 run line?

**rkelly110** · 04-03-11, 07:29 AM

I use a different -1 RL calculation to come out ahead instead of a push.

Bet to win $6 on ML, bet $5 on -RL. -RL loses, I'm ahead on ML. Small yes, but + money.

I have a small bank, larger banks would make larger profits.

I did my back testing from last year on this system -1.5 and didn't like the long losing
streaks. A lot of 5 & 6 day losses. It also had some long, but few winning streaks also.

I did both, Largest favorite ML and largest dog +RL, they both evened out at 50% for the season.

GL guys.

**do5000** · 04-03-11, 07:37 AM

PHI again today?

**Duby** · 04-03-11, 08:06 AM

Anyone who has access to Pinnacle can get the -1 lines and great odds!

best of luck using this strategy

**slapshot** · 04-03-11, 10:42 AM

1-1-1 +1 unit
sunday
philly again -161, -1

**TheJames** · 04-03-11, 11:59 AM

If this system produces around +90 units a season and your betting $100 a unit does that mean your walking away with $9000 a season? Seems too easy, am I missing something?

**slapshot** · 04-03-11, 12:36 PM

not missing anything really.....if you have 100 bucks unit size, i would recommend a $10 000 bankroll dedicated for the system

**TheJames** · 04-03-11, 01:00 PM

Also, say the line is -125... are you risking $125 to win $100 or the other way around where you bet $100 to win $75

**slapshot** · 04-03-11, 01:04 PM

you always bet to "win"...not to "risk"....i bet to increase the bankroll with 1%

**slapshot** · 04-04-11, 08:34 AM

2-1-1 +2
monday
stl cardinals -1, -106

**TheJames** · 04-04-11, 10:19 AM

BOL, I like the pick

**atari5200** · 04-04-11, 11:42 AM

i got stl ML at -139, yankees are the bigger favorite. Am i missing something too?

**himeshforex** · 04-04-11, 12:04 PM

st. louis was the fav a few hours back , a sharp move on the line has now made the yanks the biggest fav on the card

what does one normally do in these scenes,
i guess take the yanks , a better chance of it hittin as well : )

**do5000** · 04-04-11, 12:13 PM

its always based on OPENING FAVORITE, using pinnacle lines.
1st post should have all the info