The Big Card

[therber2]

BIG CARD...maybe not so big today

Padres/Marlins u9 -130 (1 unit)
Brewers -155 (2 units)
Yankees -205 (2 units)
Cubs -1.5 +105 (1 unit)
Astros -116 (1 unit)

Not going much bigger than this today. Just got called in for a meeting plus I tweaked some things today (Hot and Not) btw Cubs look good for that. Hope the info I posted helps though. I'll try to look over the rest for the night games. Doh. Jersey, could you take a look over this and let me know what you like?

Gtg. GL today guys.

[therber2]

4.28 Experiment

COL/ARI u11 EV (1 unit)

This is a particularly interesting total that I want to mark down before takin off and then analyze it later. Take care.

[peterpan19]

GL on your plays

[JerseyShop101]

I really like the Yankees/Orioles Over 8.5

Both teams are both 33.3% in last 3 games.

Batter vs hitter history shows that 7/8 batters have had success against the starters.

[Rixsaw]

COL/ARI u11 EV (1 unit) This is a particularly interesting total that I want to mark down before takin off and then analyze it later. Take care.

with you on this one. BOL

[therber2]

I really like the Yankees/Orioles Over 8.5

Both teams are both 33.3% in last 3 games.

Batter vs hitter history shows that 7/8 batters have had success against the starters.

[ATTACH]11671[/ATTACH]

Ok. So hot pitcher in lowers the line. You have found that our batters can handle hot SP's. ::check:: BP WHIP (5 day) for both teams is >1.700 ::check::. BP OBP (5 day) is around .400 ::check::. Wind direction good ::check::

RS and RA goes back and forth a lot. Yanks and O's are hot right now scoring runs. Not really a check. This is the experimental factor.

Avg. slugging rates for both teams. Avg. to below avg. OBP for offense (5 day)

Lets take this one for a unit and see what happens:

NYY/BAL o8.5 for EV over at 5dimes (1 unit)

[JerseyShop101]

Good luck therber2.

Just to let you know, F a c t s m a n is on CWS/Texas Over 9 tonight.

[therber2]

GL on your plays

with you on this one. BOL

Thanks fellas. Looks like I was wayy off on that Rockies/Arizona pick. Important thing is to find out why, and I'll tell you right now; things I tweaked were the ranges and tried to look for movement in durations. Maybe this should be taken lightly and law of averages (or what I like to call the magic) a little more heavily. Hope you all saw the note that it was experimental as are all the plays here.

Note: If you are looking for some places to follow picks exactly; I might be able to recommend some other guy's who get right to the point I've always liked TodaysAction's picks, and I am now liking G's picks and really liking the reverend. Big shout out to Jerseyshop and mebaran, and the rest of you who have contributed.

Also, their are guys who charge you money for their picks so maybe that is a good route cause then you can yell at them when they fail you

[therber2]

Good luck therber2.

Just to let you know, F a c t s m a n is on CWS/Texas Over 9 tonight.

Who is he?

[Foghorn]

JerseyShop..........like your write-up. Nice information. Good Call.......

[therber2]

Notes for 4/28

Notes for 4/28 experiment:

Does anyone know what the average 2010: game total is?
Past 3 season?

Well today didn't go well, but that is alright let's see what we can learn/observe from today. Lookings at RS ratings.

= lean on over
= lean on under

RED = team loses
GREEN = team wins

15 day league avg: 28%

KC/SEA 9.5 resulted in over (11 runs)
KC 15 days: 31.7 (high)
SEA 15 days: 22.4 (low)
15 day avg: 27.05 (below league avg.) -.95 incorrect

PHI/SFO 7 resulted in over (13 runs)
PHI 15 days: 33.1 (high)
SFO 15 days: 28.7 (mid)
15 day avg.: 30.9 (above league avg.) +2.9 correct

ARI/COL 11 resulted in wayy over (23 runs)
ARI 15 days: 22.3 (mid)
COL 15 days: 31.2 (high)
15 day avg.: 26.75 (below league avg.) -1.25 incorrect

WAS/CUB 8 resulted in under (5 runs)
WAS 15 days: 26.2 (low)
CUB 15 days: 29.3 (mid)
15 day avg.: 27.75 (below league avg.) -.28 correct


LOS/NYM 9 resulted in barely over (10 runs)

LOS 15 days: 29.2 (mid)
NYM 15 days: 27.0 (mid)
15 day avg.: 28.1 (above league avg) +.1 correct **total barely over; miniscule differential

PIT/MIL 9.5 resulted in over (11 runs)
PIT 15 days: 23.5 (low)
MIL 15 days: 36.7 (very high)
15 day avg.: 30.1 (above league avg.) +2.1 correct

SDG/FLA 8.5 results in over (10 runs)
SDG 15 days: 23.2 (low)
FLA 15 days: 32.3 (high)
15 day avg.: 27.75 (below league avg.) -.25 incorrect

CWS/TEX 9
CWS 15 days: 29.1 (mid)
TEX 15 days: 28.2 (mid)
15 day avg.: 28.65 (above league avg.) +.65 **match with your guy here JS101 correct

OAK/TAM 8.5
OAK 15 days: 33.2 (high)
TAM 15 days: 29.6 (high)
15 day avg.: 31.4 (above league avg.) +3.4 *higher differential correct

BOS/TOR 8.5
BOS 15 days: 27.3 (mid)
TOR 15 days: 28.7 (mid)
15 day avg.: 28 (average) +0.00

NYY/BAL 8.5
NYY 15 days: 34.5 (high)
BAL 15 days 22.7 (low)
15 day avg.: 28.6 (above league avg.) +.6 correct

CLE/LAA 9
CLE 15 days: 21.8 (low)
LAA 15 days: 28.6 (mid)
15 day avg.: 25.2 (below league avg.) -.28 correct

MIN/DET 8
MIN 15 days: 31.8 (high)
DET 15 days: 24.5 (low)
15 day avg.: 28.15 (above league avg.) +.15 correct

ATL/STL 8.5
ATL 15 days: 21.8 (low)
STL 15 days: 23.8 (low)
15 day avg.: 22.8 (below league avg.) -5.2 *largest differential correct

CIN/HOU 9
CIN 15 days: 29.8 (high)
HOU 15 days: 22.2 (low)
15 day avg.: 26 (below league avg.) -2 incorrect

totals based on 15 day differential (pending): 10 out of 14!

[therber2]

JerseyShop..........like your write-up. Nice information. Good Call.......

Hey Fog,

Jerseyshop definately knows what is going on here!

[Just Enough]

4/28

yanks (643-268)

1-0 (+268)

no plays for me tomorrow. be back friday. i have to say, there is some really good info in this thread. thanks for all the hard work guys. keep kickin the books!!!

[mebaran]

Looks like your data is doing some amount of good, therber. let's see how it tracks.

[therber2]

Looks like your data is doing some amount of good, therber. let's see how it tracks.

Yeah; there are a million ways to do this: 15 day differentials weighted with traditional capping methods.
or...
we might try averaging the 5-7 day differential with the 15-21 day differential take the lean, check wind, check Jerseyshops batter history stats, and we have a winner. Lol

Actually Jersey is nailing it finding a matchup in the upper and lower and then seeing if the batter history stats check. Jersey what duration did you use for RS and RA the last couple of days?

-Tom

[therber2]

Padres/Marlins u9 -130 (1 unit)
Brewers -155 (2 units)
Yankees -205 (2 units)
Cubs -1.5 +105 (1 unit)
Astros -116 (1 unit):

COL/ARI u11 EV (1 unit)

NYY/BAL o8.5 for EV over at 5dimes (1 unit)

that's a record so ugly even its' momma couldn't love it.

[therber2]

2-5 -4.56 units

[therber2]

Notes for 4/28 experiment:

Does anyone know what the average 2010: game total is?
Past 3 season?

Well today didn't go well, but that is alright let's see what we can learn/observe from today. Lookings at RS ratings.

= lean on over
= lean on under

RED = team loses
GREEN = team wins

15 day league avg: 28%

KC/SEA 9.5 resulted in over (11 runs)
KC 15 days: 31.7 (high)
SEA 15 days: 22.4 (low)
15 day avg: 27.05 (below league avg.) -.95 incorrect

PHI/SFO 7 resulted in over (13 runs)
PHI 15 days: 33.1 (high)
SFO 15 days: 28.7 (mid)
15 day avg.: 30.9 (above league avg.) +2.9 correct

ARI/COL 11 resulted in wayy over (23 runs)
ARI 15 days: 22.3 (mid)
COL 15 days: 31.2 (high)
15 day avg.: 26.75 (below league avg.) -1.25 incorrect

WAS/CUB 8 resulted in under (5 runs)
WAS 15 days: 26.2 (low)
CUB 15 days: 29.3 (mid)
15 day avg.: 27.75 (below league avg.) -.28 correct


LOS/NYM 9 resulted in barely over (10 runs)

LOS 15 days: 29.2 (mid)
NYM 15 days: 27.0 (mid)
15 day avg.: 28.1 (above league avg) +.1 correct **total barely over; miniscule differential

PIT/MIL 9.5 resulted in over (11 runs)
PIT 15 days: 23.5 (low)
MIL 15 days: 36.7 (very high)
15 day avg.: 30.1 (above league avg.) +2.1 correct

SDG/FLA 8.5 results in over (10 runs)
SDG 15 days: 23.2 (low)
FLA 15 days: 32.3 (high)
15 day avg.: 27.75 (below league avg.) -.25 incorrect

CWS/TEX 9
CWS 15 days: 29.1 (mid)
TEX 15 days: 28.2 (mid)
15 day avg.: 28.65 (above league avg.) +.65 **match with your guy here JS101 correct

OAK/TAM 8.5
OAK 15 days: 33.2 (high)
TAM 15 days: 29.6 (high)
15 day avg.: 31.4 (above league avg.) +3.4 *higher differential correct

BOS/TOR 8.5
BOS 15 days: 27.3 (mid)
TOR 15 days: 28.7 (mid)
15 day avg.: 28 (average) +0.00

NYY/BAL 8.5
NYY 15 days: 34.5 (high)
BAL 15 days 22.7 (low)
15 day avg.: 28.6 (above league avg.) +.6 correct

CLE/LAA 9
CLE 15 days: 21.8 (low)
LAA 15 days: 28.6 (mid)
15 day avg.: 25.2 (below league avg.) -.28 correct

MIN/DET 8
MIN 15 days: 31.8 (high)
DET 15 days: 24.5 (low)
15 day avg.: 28.15 (above league avg.) +.15 correct

ATL/STL 8.5
ATL 15 days: 21.8 (low)
STL 15 days: 23.8 (low)
15 day avg.: 22.8 (below league avg.) -5.2 *largest differential correct

CIN/HOU 9
CIN 15 days: 29.8 (high)
HOU 15 days: 22.2 (low)
15 day avg.: 26 (below league avg.) -2 incorrect

totals based on 15 day differential (pending): 10 out of 14!

I think we may be onto something boys. That is 71.4% accuracy for the system on 4/28. Plays with a differential of 2 or more going 3 out of 4 or 75% for 4/28. I have a meeting in less than 30 minutes. I'll see if I can post the card (which will mostly be those totals) when I can. Would anyone like to do 7 day? No? Didn't think so

GL today guys. Hope you cashed big yesterday!

[therber2]

Big Card 4/29

Note: league avg. = 27.7 (15 day)

ATL/STL under7 (1 unit) -8.15 lean on under but this one looks out of wack fade it or small I think. We'll see what happens with this one.
ARI/CUB over9 (1 unit) +1.1 diff. **EDIT: line opened at 9 at matchbook; now 12.5 and 13 across the books. Still going to take the over on this at 12.5 as this is an experiment. Thanks for pointing that out DE.
CIN/HOU over7.5 (1 unit) +.85 diff.
MIL/SDG over7 (2.5 units) +2.5 diff.
PIT/LOS under8.5 (2 units) -2.15 diff.
MIN/DET over9.5 (1 unit) +.6 diff.
CWS/TEX over9.5 (1 unit) +.65 diff.
NYY/BAL over8.5 (2 units) +2.8 diff.
OAK/TOR under7.5 (1 unit) -1 diff.
KC/TAM over8.5 (4 units) +4.65 diff.

GL today! Got it in quicker than I thought.
Note: not personally playing any of these until JS gives his say.

[darkenergy]

therber2, where do you get Arizona/Cub total at 9, the total line just release for this game and 5 dimes has it at 12.5?
Don't you think it kinda high for T. Lilly. I didn't have time to look at the game closely, but the game with Lilly on the mount have never set anything higher than 9.5 going back to 09 season.
5dimes has 12.5 OVER -125, which public pounding OVER heavy too.
I just book 4units on UNDER +110, thinking about adding more.
Can you give me some insight of that game regarding to total, as I see you have OVER 9.
Thanks bud,

[therber2]

therber2, where do you get Arizona/Cub total at 9, the total line just release for this game and 5 dimes has it at 12.5?
Don't you think it kinda high for T. Lilly. I didn't have time to look at the game closely, but the game with Lilly on the mount have never set anything higher than 9.5 going back to 09 season.
5dimes has 12.5 OVER -125, which public pounding OVER heavy too.
I just book 4units on UNDER +110, thinking about adding more.
Can you give me some insight of that game regarding to total, as I see you have OVER 9.
Thanks bud,

I made a note above. Still going to take that over as an experiment darkenergy. If you read what I've been doing you will understand clearly why I have the over there... That is the insight I can provide. This is a play that you'd be better off not touching FYI.

[mebaran]

Note: league avg. = 27.7 (15 day)

ATL/STL under7 (1 unit) -8.15 lean on under but this one looks out of wack fade it or small I think. We'll see what happens with this one.
ARI/CUB over9 (1 unit) +1.1 diff. **EDIT: line opened at 9 at matchbook; now 12.5 and 13 across the books. Still going to take the over on this at 12.5 as this is an experiment. Thanks for pointing that out DE.
CIN/HOU over7.5 (1 unit) +.85 diff.
MIL/SDG over7 (2.5 units) +2.5 diff.
PIT/LOS under8.5 (2 units) -2.15 diff.
MIN/DET over9.5 (1 unit) +.6 diff.
CWS/TEX over9.5 (1 unit) +.65 diff.
NYY/BAL over8.5 (2 units) +2.8 diff.
OAK/TOR under7.5 (1 unit) -1 diff.
KC/TAM over8.5 (4 units) +4.65 diff.

GL today! Got it in quicker than I thought.
Note: not personally playing any of these until JS gives his say.

Looking alright so far. I like what you're doing with the differentials and the unit sizes.

Good luck on all plays today everyone

[therber2]

Some additional plays

SAS/DAL (nba) o190.5 (5units)
Astros -160 (2 units)
Padres -130 (2 units)
Blue Jays -155 (1 unit)

[therber2]

Looking alright so far. I like what you're doing with the differentials and the unit sizes.

Good luck on all plays today everyone

Mebaran, any interest in posting in the same format picks for 7 days on the over unders? It is pretty formulaic. I haven't thought of a way I'd want to incorporate RA; maybe you have some ideas.

[JerseyShop101]

No chance to post earlier, but standing out today is the Houston/Cincy Over 8 (some 7.5s still available, but won't matter).

Last3 RS: Reds (34.6%) vs. Astros (30.8%)

9+ battters have had success aganst the starting pitchers:

[therber2]

Aw man. Too late there Jerseyshop. No worries. Hope it cashes for you, and maybe you take one or two of the "additional plays" Could we keep record of your 3 day + hitter lineup picks? By the way, where do you get that info? Is it you mining it or can you find this somewhere? Either way, how you are interpretting it is what is working so well.

[therber2]

Note: league avg. = 27.7 (15 day)

ATL/STL under7 (1 unit) -8.15 lean on under but this one looks out of wack fade it or small I think. We'll see what happens with this one.
ARI/CUB over9 (1 unit) +1.1 diff. **EDIT: line opened at 9 at matchbook; now 12.5 and 13 across the books. Still going to take the over on this at 12.5 as this is an experiment. Thanks for pointing that out DE.
CIN/HOU over7.5 (1 unit) +.85 diff.
MIL/SDG over7 (2.5 units) +2.5 diff.
PIT/LOS under8.5 (2 units) -2.15 diff.
MIN/DET over9.5 (1 unit) +.6 diff.
CWS/TEX over9.5 (1 unit) +.65 diff.
NYY/BAL over8.5 (2 units) +2.8 diff.
OAK/TOR under7.5 (1 unit) -1 diff.
KC/TAM over8.5 (4 units) +4.65 diff.

GL today! Got it in quicker than I thought.
Note: not personally playing any of these until JS gives his say.

well. Maybe there needs to be a minimum for differentials. If not I'll play around with duration. Let's see what we come up with tomorrow. I'll use 7 day and more than 1 diff. for 15 days. scratch that. I will take another shot at 15 days. Focusing on plays around 2 pt differential.

[therber2]

Astros -160 (2 units)
Padres -130 (2 units)
Blue Jays -155 (1 unit)

2-1 -.6 units

[therber2]

4/29 MLB results

9-7 +3.3 units
plays with differential over 2 pts. go 3 out of 5 that is 60%
All totals go 7-13 that is 53.8%

[therber2]

4/30 Big card totals

4/30 15 day tracking:

**League avg. = 27.7%

MIN/CLE 9 -.05 (0 units)
PIT/LOS 9 -2.15 (1 units)
NYM/PHI 10.5 +.85 (.5 units)
WAS/FLA 9 +2.55 (.5 units)
COL/SFO 7.5 +1.25 (1 unit)
OAK/TOR 9 -1 (1 unit)
MIL/SDG 7.5 +2.55 (1.5 units)
ARI/CUB 14 +1.1 (2 units) Holy Cow! What a line.
CIN/STL 7.5 -.45 (2 units)
BOS/BAL 9 -2.7 (2 units)
LAA/DET 9.5 -2.55 (3 units)
TEX/SEA 7 -2.45 (4 units)
KC/TAM 9 +4.65 (5 units)
CWS/NYY 9 +5.45 (5.5 units)
HOU/ATL 8 -5.6 (6 units)

Note: Also taking inns with runs allowed into account today with a .5 unit lean in either direction. Also looking at 5 day bullpen ratings and slug rates for hitters. Wind direction etc.

[Just Enough]

4/30

twins (100-115)
tampa (230-100)
braves (171-100)
cards (205-100)

have at it.

[darkenergy]

therber,
I like UNDER Astros/Brave the most myself in today games. Astros bats are ice cold, and T.Hanson is solid at home.
QUESTION: I don't know when you run your stats, did you get the numbers with Reynolds (he was listed as pitcher earlier) or Myers.
Will pitcher change alter your results???
Line was 7 this morning, but now jump to 8 or 8.5 in somebook. Stupid 5dimes doesn't release the line for this game yet, otherwise I love to lock in my play at UNDER 8.5.

I will definitely playing UNDER 4.5 (if line stay around 8 or more when 5dimes release the line) for FF.
Thanks for what you doing here therber.

[therber2]

4/30

twins (100-115)
tampa (230-100)
braves (171-100)
cards (205-100)

have at it.

I like Card and Rays there JE. Good luck to you!

[therber2]

therber,
I like UNDER Astros/Brave the most myself in today games. Astros bats are ice cold, and T.Hanson is solid at home.
QUESTION: I don't know when you run your stats, did you get the numbers with Reynolds (he was listed as pitcher earlier) or Myers.
Will pitcher change alter your results???
Line was 7 this morning, but now jump to 8 or 8.5 in somebook. Stupid 5dimes doesn't release the line for this game yet, otherwise I love to lock in my play at UNDER 8.5.

I will definitely playing UNDER 4.5 (if line stay around 8 or more when 5dimes release the line) for FF.
Thanks for what you doing here therber.

No problem man. I am glad that you are doing it the right way. Use the list as YOUR starting point. ATL/HOU checked in and I haven't placed the bet yet so I am glad it moved in our favor. As for starting pitchers, they are very lightly taken into account. Hardly at all. So even with the pitcher change it would still be a top play.

[therber2]

I think the fact that the system produced the over14 for CUB/ARI says something. Here's to everyone who had the balls to take this play.