The Big Card

[mebaran]

Not a bad day.

7-4-1 6.13 units

Congrats, sir. Very well played.

I have a present incoming in a minute...

[therber2]

The sheet 4/23

Here is an idea: I post the sheet every day like I have been and then we can make a graph per team to see hot and cold. Not sure how I would present that; not sure if I will. Just an idea at this point unless someone comes up with a better system.

[mebaran]

I sent you a PM, therber2. Let me know what you think (and if you even got it).

[therber2]

Here is how I would look at it

This is how I would use the two sheets together.

For unders: Look for both teams in the bottom third (highest rate to lowest) for run/inning earned AND both teams are in the top third (lowest rate to highest) for innings with runs allowed / innings played

For overs: Look for both teams in the top third (highest rate to lowest) for run/inning earned AND both teams are in the bottom third (lowest rate to highest) for innings with runs allowed / innings played

For Team To Win: Look for a team from the top third in run production facing a team in the bottom third AND the selected team is in the top third for innings with runs allowed / innings played while the opposing team is in the bottom third.

Seems very logical. Take a look over this for tomorrow, and see if you have any fits.

[JerseyShop101]

Mebaran, first off. Go Cubs indeed Are you in Chicago?

Okay, if you want to do the sheet and post it in here like I've been doing with mine that is fine. I sent an email to Steve over at cleanuphitter asking if he'd offer some advice on how to program a scrape. Honestly, don't want to go there....I cannot stand programming; however, read Foghorn's post again, and check out how Steve at cleanup does his multisorts (by last X#days). That is what we should do OR to make it simple we could just have two sheets one with the full season and another with the last 12 games or something.

Jerseyshop, what do you think? Last 12 games?

Glad to see you had a very nice winning day! I didn't have a chance to get online as I had to go to Seoul and just got back (I'm 13 hours ahead of the east coast).

12 games is good, I was fooling around with 5 and 7 also last year, but its all trial and error. Keep it going, I need some winners for Saturday!

[mebaran]

http://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B4gHEmaWvcw8Y2JiM2QyMzItMjMxNi00YjVhLWEwOTktZTEzMzFjY2M2ZWFk&hl=en

[mebaran]

therber, how did you insert that image? I am trying by using the insert image tags on SBR, but the link never works.

[mebaran]

From what I've gathered, our experimental would have 3 plays today:

Top Ten Hitting vs Bottom 10 pitching
Phillies over D'backs
Yankees over Angels
Dodgers over Nationals

[darkenergy]

I'm lean toward National in this game SMALL. I don't know trends are apply in baseball, but I like few trends that I see in Nationals
When play on Saturday: LA 0-2, WAS 2-0
In Day game: LA 3-3, Was 5-4 (dodger probably not wake up by game time)
As road favorite between 125 to 150 LAD 2-2
As road favorite between 150 to 175 LAD 0-1
Home dog 125-150 WAS 4-1

also leaning OVER

[BigJ]

Thanks BigJ and welcome. Hope you post some thoughts like the above here. Yes WHIP is close to my top factor, but for the bullpen. People didn't look at this last season and it killed them.

I am going to bump this:

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)." (Except from a promo email to the public.)

Again, this is from statfox who say that their number 1 factor is bullpen. I was interested because most of the time for me it is as well since we have SPs playing less innings these days.

Using this.....Went 3-0 last night. Would have been 4 if Rockies played.

[Just Enough]

yesterday went 3-2 (-120). i'm off the phils, that was a once and done thing. i thought they would win game 1. i'm not confident in figueroa/kendrick. i won't be home until late tonight. have a good one gents.

4/24

rays (win 335) game 2

[therber2]

therber, how did you insert that image? I am trying by using the insert image tags on SBR, but the link never works.

Screen capture, and then crop it in some photo-editing software is what I did.

[therber2]

yesterday went 3-2 (-120). i'm off the phils, that was a once and done thing. i thought they would win game 1. i'm not confident in figueroa/kendrick. i won't be home until late tonight. have a good one gents.

4/24

rays (win 335) game 2

I've got the Rays too brutha (this means consensus which is an excellent thing here).

GL to us today on that; I am going to try to produce a good card for us again today...please hold.

[therber2]

Glad to see you had a very nice winning day! I didn't have a chance to get online as I had to go to Seoul and just got back (I'm 13 hours ahead of the east coast).

12 games is good, I was fooling around with 5 and 7 also last year, but its all trial and error. Keep it going, I need some winners for Saturday!

Hey jerseyshop,

Thanks man. I hope that your trip went well, and your sleep pattern doesn't get thrown off

There will be up days and down days. I have said it before I don't play all of these; I am experimenting and so far getting tons of great ideas from these great guys, and new people are always welcome if you have an interesting thought.

JS, how did you track 5 and 7 games last year. Separate spread sheets? Is there any quicker way to do this part of the study? Also, do you think season results become irrelevant at any particular point?

-Tom

[therber2]

Using this.....Went 3-0 last night. Would have been 4 if Rockies played.

Very nice! I am glad that worked out for you. What were your picks, and could you post your picks if you decide to keep following this? Pretty exciting!



Just want to say thanks to all of you guys helping out here. We have very quickly gotten a good thing going. I hope that you will all prosper from the knowledge gained here. Please know this though; I have lost before bad, and you may lose too. You are either doing something wrong or $hit happens. Make sure you are using the right money management if you are doing this for anything other than recreational.

[BigJ]

I didn't go 3-0. This system did.

I tracked the Bullen stats yesterday. Bullpen ERA/WHIP went 9-3 yesterday. That's tracking the clear advantaged teams, not the close ones. This will not work on game 2 and 3 of a series. We all know it's hard to sweep. But as Therber said, Bullpen stats are very important.

[therber2]

From what I've gathered, our experimental would have 3 plays today:

Top Ten Hitting vs Bottom 10 pitching
Phillies over D'backs
Yankees over Angels
Dodgers over Nationals

This is good. I see a few more today though I think.

[BigJ]

My suggestion is to play what fits this "tracking" in game one. If they lose, go to game two and so on. If the play wins game one, I would say stop and wait for the next series. Winning the series or a sweep is often too hard to do, so if I can win one game of the series I would be happy.

Just my thoughts.
Any one else?

[darkenergy]

I didn't go 3-0. This system did. I tracked the Bullen stats yesterday. Bullpen ERA/WHIP went 9-3 yesterday. That's tracking the clear advantaged teams, not the close ones. This will not work on game 2 and 3 of a series. We all know it's hard to sweep. But as Therber said, Bullpen stats are very important.

This is good info, so some of the Aces pitchers like Roy Halladay, Carpenter, etc....we don't have to worry about bullpen as they will pitch mostly whole game??????

[therber2]

4/24 Big Card

Yankees -115 (1 unit)
CWS/SEA u8.5 -105 (1 unit)
Oakland -1.5 +135 (1 unit)
Nationals +1.5 EV (1 unit)
ATL/METS u8.5 -110 (5 units)
Braves -135 (2 units)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +150 (1 unit)
BOS -1.5 +110 (1 unit)
BOS/BAL o8.5 (2 units)
HOU -1.5 +120 (1 unit)
HOU/PIT u9 -120 (3 units)
Twins -118 (1 unit)
Brewers +105 (1 unit)
CHI/MIL u9 -110 (5 units)
Phillies -110 (1 unit)
PHI o10.5 -110 (1 unit)
SFO +1.5 -120 (1 unit)

GL Today guys

[therber2]

This is good info, so some of the Aces pitchers like Roy Halladay, Carpenter, etc....we don't have to worry about bullpen as they will pitch mostly whole game??????

Wrong. Pitchers rarely go the whole game nowadays.

[therber2]

I didn't go 3-0. This system did.

I tracked the Bullen stats yesterday. Bullpen ERA/WHIP went 9-3 yesterday. That's tracking the clear advantaged teams, not the close ones. This will not work on game 2 and 3 of a series. We all know it's hard to sweep. But as Therber said, Bullpen stats are very important.

What were the three plays?

Would you mind posting them BigJ; thanks brutha. Really would like to see what you are looking at.

[BigJ]

Toronto, Houston & Oakland won. Rockies got PPD, but I have them today.
That was a quick glance last night. But they all fit the criteria for plays.
The 9-3 record (bullpen ERA/WHIP) was pretty impressive. Again, the close ones I didn't count.
Not sure about today.
I have Yankees, Phillies, Rockies & Rays today so far. 3 because they lost yesterday and Rockies because they fit the above criteria. I'm still looking at other games/stats.

[BigJ]

MLB 49-29
0-4 on Parlays
NBA Playoffs 4-0

[JerseyShop101]

Hey jerseyshop,

Thanks man. I hope that your trip went well, and your sleep pattern doesn't get thrown off

There will be up days and down days. I have said it before I don't play all of these; I am experimenting and so far getting tons of great ideas from these great guys, and new people are always welcome if you have an interesting thought.

JS, how did you track 5 and 7 games last year. Separate spread sheets? Is there any quicker way to do this part of the study? Also, do you think season results become irrelevant at any particular point?

-Tom

I used excel spreadsheets, and made the data fields for the separate number of games to pull from the entered data "blocks" (so I would only have to type it one time, and the numbers would be entered into all the different spreadsheets at once.) The last question is a tough one, as it is always a work in progress to get the higher winning percentage.

Good luck today.

[therber2]

Toronto, Houston & Oakland won. Rockies got PPD, but I have them today.
That was a quick glance last night. But they all fit the criteria for plays.
The 9-3 record (bullpen ERA/WHIP) was pretty impressive. Again, the close ones I didn't count.
Not sure about today.
I have Yankees, Phillies, Rockies & Rays today so far. 3 because they lost yesterday and Rockies because they fit the above criteria. I'm still looking at other games/stats.

BigJ, that is awesome. I think a thing that would help is writing out your plays here first saying what units you are putting on each, and then taking the play at the books. I am glad you are keeping a record with what you are doing. Maybe you should keep experimental plays separate in your record? Either way...thanks for posting. Let's make some $$

I like Yanks, Phillies, Rockies, and esp. Rays as well

[therber2]

I used excel spreadsheets, and made the data fields for the separate number of games to pull from the entered data "blocks" (so I would only have to type it one time, and the numbers would be entered into all the different spreadsheets at once.) The last question is a tough one, as it is always a work in progress to get the higher winning percentage.

Good luck today.

Okay, this is how I am going to do it I think; however, I think mebaran has another good idea. Do you have a blank sheet with the formulas that do what you are saying?

[therber2]

Note: scratched the Brewers and added the under for the game.

[darkenergy]

Lucky I saw your note in last minute, I be able to cashed 4 units on Under CUB first 5. I remember last year, keep riding UNDER 1st 5 when Ted on the mount, and did quite ok.
Thanks therber2

[therber2]

Lucky I saw your note in last minute, I be able to cashed 4 units on Under CUB first 5. I remember last year, keep riding UNDER 1st 5 when Ted on the mount, and did quite ok.
Thanks therber2

This is what I love to hear! Great job my friend.

[darkenergy]

I still waiting for whole game UNDER thought. I only have 1unit on UNDER whole game, as I afraid the bullpens screw things up like the thing we discussed this morning.
BOL therber2, great job and great thread my friend

[Just Enough]

yesterday went 3-2 (-120). i'm off the phils, that was a once and done thing. i thought they would win game 1. i'm not confident in figueroa/kendrick. i won't be home until late tonight. have a good one gents.

4/24

rays (win 335) game 2

1-0 (+335)

no picks until monday. good luck tomorrow fellas.

[therber2]

4/25 Results

Yankees -115 (1 unit)
CWS/SEA u8.5 -105 (1 unit)
Oakland -1.5 +135 (1 unit)
Nationals +1.5 EV (1 unit)
ATL/METS u8.5 -110 (5 units)
Braves -135 (2 units)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +150 (1 unit)
BOS -1.5 +110 (1 unit)
BOS/BAL o8.5 (2 units)
HOU -1.5 +120 (1 unit)
HOU/PIT u9 -120 (3 units)
Twins -118 (1 unit)
Brewers +105 (1 unit)
CHI/MIL u9 -110 (5 units)
Phillies -110 (1 unit)
PHI o10.5 -110 (1 unit)
SFO +1.5 -120 (1 unit)

GL Today guys

Karma reigns here boys. Hope you all came along for the ride today.

[therber2]

11-5 +15.85 units

[therber2]

Good luck pal.

Lol thanks, luck was here today, but could be gone tomorrow if we don't keep up the hard work. We do our part and lady luck will shine down.

Pat...my god that avatar is fugly....