The Big Card

[JerseyShop101]

I think the fact that the system produced the over14 for CUB/ARI says something. Here's to everyone who had the balls to take this play.

Still no total for tomorrows Cubs/Zona game. Can they make it high enough? hmmmm.

[mebaran]

Still no total for tomorrows Cubs/Zona game. Can they make it high enough? hmmmm.

These linesmakers are starting to make me laugh haha. Spot on with them..

[therber2]

Jersey, I'm going to put extra effort in the card for Monday. We get 14 picks for 7 days. Let's blow them out of the water.

[therber2]

4/30 15 day tracking:

**League avg. = 27.7%

MIN/CLE 9 -.05 (0 units)
PIT/LOS 9 -2.15 (1 units)
NYM/PHI 10.5 +.85 (.5 units)
WAS/FLA 9 +2.55 (.5 units) CANCELED (pitcher change)
COL/SFO 7.5 +1.25 (1 unit)
OAK/TOR 9 -1 (1 unit)
MIL/SDG 7.5 +2.55 (1.5 units)
ARI/CUB 14 +1.1 (2 units) Holy Cow! What a line. My favorite win of the day! Windy here in the city; actually blew my window right off the hinge!
CIN/STL 7.5 -.45 (2 units)
BOS/BAL 9 -2.7 (2 units) PUSH
LAA/DET 9.5 -2.55 (3 units)
TEX/SEA 7 -2.45 (4 units)
KC/TAM 9 +4.65 (5 units)
CWS/NYY 9 +5.45 (5.5 units)
HOU/ATL 8 -5.6 (6 units)

Note: Also taking inns with runs allowed into account today with a .5 unit lean in either direction. Also looking at 5 day bullpen ratings and slug rates for hitters. Wind direction etc.

6-6-1 (46.1%) +7.5 units (total count)
plays over 2 pt. diff. 4-3 (57.1%) for +6.7 units

[therber2]

Setting up card 4/30 (15 days)

League Avg = 27.4%

nym/phi 8 +1.15 (1 unit)
mil/sdg 7 +1 (1 unit)
min/cle 9.5 -.5 (1 unit)
oak/tor 9 -.65 (1 unit) fade
tex/sea 7 -1.7 (1 unit)
col/sfo 8 +1.55 (1.5 units)
laa/det 10 -1.5 (1.5 units)
pit/los 9 -4.15 (2 units)
Ari/cub 11 +.55 (2.5 units)
hou/atl 8 -4.55 (2.5 units)
cin/stl 9 -.95 (3 units)
was/fla 9.5 +2.85 (3 units)
bos/bal 9.5 -3.1 (3 units)
kc/tam 8.5 +4 (4 units)
cws/nyy 9.5 +5.6 (6 units)

Picks based mostly off differential tonight. Less time; I want to compare profit/loss. Removing/adding weight for good or bad bullpens or the rare perfect/not so good wind condition.

note to self: look for correlation between and and vis versa..

[bigsmitty]

6-6-1 (46.1%) +7.5 units (total count)
plays over 2 pt. diff. 4-3 (57.1%) for +6.7 units

Your plays seem well thought out-can you let me in more on your system/and picks for Saturday totals. Not sure if you do NHL but I'm thinking Over for Van/Chi and Under Phi/Bos. Thanks, cheers.

[therber2]

Your plays seem well thought out-can you let me in more on your system/and picks for Saturday totals. Not sure if you do NHL but I'm thinking Over for Van/Chi and Under Phi/Bos. Thanks, cheers.

Hey bigsmitty,

I don't know how to cap NHL unfortunately. As for tomorrow's plays there are some notes included. I am primarily looking at teams rated by #innings with at least 1 run scored divided by total innings played. For now I am using a 15 day duration for a dry run with units. From that starting point, I tweak these things based on a few factors that I personally like. I have one account where I play these small using an algorithm betting system. In my normal account I will take the best pick of the day which a fellow here named jerseyshop101 helps me come up with for a larger sized bet.

You are welcome to contribute plays and ideas here. I didn't mean to complicate things here too much. If anybody is confused about what I am doing just ask. It is actually very simple, and I probably just don't communicate it universally. For those of you who have been around here, you know what is going on.

What would be great is if I could get some feed back on what you all think should be higher up on the list or lower on the list or scratched. There are a number of probably important factors that I ignore, but since I am hitting at 50% at least, I bet these using a algorithm to adjust for that.

[therber2]

Adding:

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +125 (5 units)
Seattle -1.5 (2 units)

[JerseyShop101]

Jersey, I'm going to put extra effort in the card for Monday. We get 14 picks for 7 days. Let's blow them out of the water.

Definitely!

For totals- nothing really standing out that matches up so far (still waiting on ATL/Hou total).

For side-
Your STL -1.5 should be $$$, The Cardinals should have more batting practice against Homer Bailey. STL is batting .362 against him (21 for 58). starters .375 (18 for 48).

[Just Enough]

4/30

twins (100-115)
tampa (230-100)
braves (171-100)
cards (205-100)

have at it.

2-2 (-220)

[Just Enough]

5/1

tampa (win 330)
cards (win 305)

[therber2]

5/1

tampa (win 330)
cards (win 305)

Already have them BOTH booked.

[therber2]

Appreciate the points darkenergy

[therber2]

Wind has calmed down a bit here, but that Cubs line is out at 11. Came down from the clouds too. I'm taking that over once more. HOU/ATL out at 8. Line never really matters here; I think that is why it is a success.

I may be wrong with this thought but I'll throw it out there: I have books that seem like they have the money to not compete with lines. They deal with larger transactions so they don't move lines as much, they just move prices around. I haven't been tracking this, but with these totals a trend I am noticing is this: those stiff books won't move off the line, but they jack up the line more than 50% of the time at least on the side I've been taking. Can always book at another spot for these, but it is good to take a look at what they are indicating I think.

[therber2]

http://www.sbrpicks.com/tourney/1175/

64 man bracket tourney only 3 spots left. I think some of you guys here would be interested. Give it a shot 25 pt. entry fee. Starts Monday goes for a week 14 plays min and max.

[JerseyShop101]

Jersey, I'm going to put extra effort in the card for Monday. We get 14 picks for 7 days. Let's blow them out of the water.

We still need 3 more to sign up.

8/25 pts
Thanks again therber2!

[darkenergy]

I know Roy Halladay on the mount today, but team total for Mets only 3, it seem like too low for hot bats Met don't you think?
Thinking about Mets TT OVER 3 +105

[JerseyShop101]

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +125 (3 units)
Seattle -1.5 (2 units)

Figured I'd add the chart here as this is in my opinion, the best bet of the day.

I don't normally like taking the home team on the runline, but in this matchup against Homer Bailey I'll make the exception.

More batting practice for the Cardinals!

[therber2]

I know Roy Halladay on the mount today, but team total for Mets only 3, it seem like too low for hot bats Met don't you think?
Thinking about Mets TT OVER 3 +105

I could see it happening, and for that price go for it as a very small play unless you are more confident. Hope it works out for you darkenergy.

[therber2]

Figured I'd add the chart here as this is in my opinion, the best bet of the day.

I don't normally like taking the home team on the runline, but in this matchup against Homer Bailey I'll make the exception.

More batting practice for the Cardinals!


[ATTACH]11743[/ATTACH]

and for the pts. JS.

Just retapped it for a little bit more in the books now to a large bet (from med. - large).

Speaking of a Jersey and sizes...lol; I'm really liking those new Blackhawks jerseys I am seeing everyone wearing around (I'd grab one if it wasn't for that), BUT I especially like this picture. Notice the old guy chuckling at the Americans fighting the Canuckies

[therber2]

We still need 3 more to sign up.

8/25 pts
Thanks again therber2!

All closed up now. Go Team Victory. heh.

[therber2]

Bases loaded, 2 outs. Boom Pujols finally does his job correctly.

[therber2]

Grab a beer tonight Jersey and enjoy the winnings.

[therber2]

League Avg = 27.4%
( = 1 run in the first inning)

nym/phi over8 +1.15 (1 unit)
mil/sdg over7 +1 (1 unit)
min/cle under9.5 -.5 (1 unit)
oak/tor under9 -.65 (1 unit) fade
tex/sea under7 -1.7 (1 unit)
col/sfo over8 +1.55 (1.5 units)
laa/det under10 -1.5 (1.5 units)
pit/los under9 -4.15 (2 units)
Ari/cub over11 +.55 (2.5 units) Congrats once again to those with the balls
hou/atl 8 -4.55 (2.5 units)
cin/stl 9 -.95 (3 units)
was/fla 9.5 +2.85 (3 units)
bos/bal 9.5 -3.1 (3 units)
kc/tam 8.5 +4 (4 units)
cws/nyy 9.5 +5.6 (6 units)

Picks based mostly off differential tonight. Less time; I want to compare profit/loss. Removing/adding weight for good or bad bullpens or the rare perfect/not so good wind condition.

note to self: look for correlation between and and vis versa..

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +125 (5 units)
Seattle -1.5 (2 units)

7-8+.75 units

[therber2]

YES/NO analysis

4 of 5's on so far....I wonder if this will be some odd trend. 4 out of 5 so far in the AL. Related?

1st inn run: Yes
Yesterday 4 out of 8 NL
5 out of 7 AL

That is 9-6 60% for 4/30

Notes:
(Teams that scored in first inning and their projected prob.)
3 day league slug avg. =.416

BOS/BAL 45 perfect wind SSW 9 mph
-.0535 slug matchup diff. vs. league
Poor SP's

MIN/CLE 58% perfect wind S 12 mph
+.019
new AAA pitcher and a SP bad career stats, but hot

DET/LAA 67%
+.0675
Two bad SP's one on a cold run.

CWS/NYY 32%
+.057
One slick SP, and a avg. SP on a hot run
I had this one to book as a "NO" and accidentally clicked YES. KARMA baby

PIT/LOS
-.068
Bad SP plus new guy

HOU/ATL 42% perfect wind SSW and 16 mph
-.081
two decent SP's one hot one cold.

3 of 5 with perfect wind. The other two in the right direction.

[therber2]

Jersey, are you still running the runs in the first system? Maybe a wind direction factor (say +.5 pt for outwards, +1 pt. perfect direction, +-.5 regular wind, +-1 strong wind).

[Just Enough]

5/1

tampa (win 330)
cards (win 305)

1-1 (-586)

[therber2]

Big Card 5/2

Totals setup (15 day):
League avg. = 27%


COL/SFO 8 +0
MIN/CLE 8 -.2 (.5 units)
BOS/BAL 8.5 -2.5 (.5 units)
MIL/SDG 7.5 +.45 (.5 units)
ARI/CUB # +.5 (2 units)
NYM/PHI 9 +1.15 (2.5 units)
CIN/STL 7.5 -1.2 (3 units)
WAS/FLA 8.5 +3.1 (3 units)
LAA/DET 8.5 -.65 (3 units)
HOU/ATL 9 - 8.5 -3.75 (3.5 units)
TEX/SEA 7 -2.9 (4.5 units)
KC/TAM 8 +4.1 (5 units) *bull
OAK/TOR 8.5 +1.75 (5 units)
CWS/NYY 9.5 +5.65 (5.5 units)
PIT/LOS 8.5 -4.9 (6 units)

[therber2]

5/2 Sides

15 day

MIN/CLE 14% Twins
MIL/SDG 4.1% Brewers
LAA/DET 5.5% Angels

7 day

MIN/CLE 15.8% Twins
MIL/SDG 5.2% Padres
LAA/DET 3.3% Angels

3 day

MIN/CLE 0% Cleveland looks a little hotter short term
MIL/SDG 14.6% Padres
LAA/DET 3.7% Detroit

Twins -160 (7 units)
Detroit -120 (7 units)
Padres EV (5 units)


Other notes:
Brewers letting up more runs 3day, 13.6% more 7day, 12.2% more 15 day
Cleveland letting up more runs 3day, 7day, and 15 day
Angels letting up more runs 3day, 7day, 15 day

5 day BP WHIP diff.
Padres 1.00 Brewers 1.44; .44
Twins 1.197 Indians 1.933; .736
Detroit 1.016 Angels 1.695; .679

5 day Slug diff:
Tigers .522 Angels .470; .052
Twins .397 Indians .412; .015 *Indians excel slightly in all batting catagories
Padres .321 Brewers .419; .098 *Brewers excel slightly in all batting catagories

[therber2]

I know Roy Halladay on the mount today, but team total for Mets only 3, it seem like too low for hot bats Met don't you think?
Thinking about Mets TT OVER 3 +105

darkenergy, I think it might be worth another shot at Mets TT over for 5/2. Either chase or just another small play.

[therber2]

Very strange trend:
Past 3 days:
There were 16 runs scored in the first inning. 12 out of 16 of those happened when I had a bet on the UNDER. There were 18 bets on the under so this trend hit at 66.6% I cannot explain the logic in this; I have just noticed it.

NYM/PHI (.5 units) 51%
MIN/CLE (.5 units) 35%
CIN/STL (1 units) 59%
LAA/DET (.5 units) 43%
HOU/ATL (1 units) 49%
TEX/SEA (1 unit) 52%
PIT/LOS (2 units) 51%
BOS/BAL (3.5 units) 54%
MIL/SDG (.25 unit) 38%

[Just Enough]

no plays today. i made a mistake when i placed my wagers on friday hoping i would get lucky. my bad. live and learn. good luck today gents.

[therber2]

My card is so split up it wasn't a huge deal, but I was kickin' myself.

[JerseyShop101]

We still need 3 more to sign up.

8/25 pts
Thanks again therber2!

We start the contest on Monday!

15/25 pts pd.

[drewski]

wow! nice into dude! best of luck to you!