The Big Card

[Cougar Bait]

GL today therber, looks like you're also having a hell of a start to the year.

Thanks for stopping by

[therber2]

We start the contest on Monday!

15/25 pts pd.

I am sending you an email, with a few important notes. Stay tuned. Oh and an epic play included.

[therber2]

GL today therber, looks like you're also having a hell of a start to the year.

Thanks for stopping by

Cougar, all I gotta say is, you are the $$$hit man. I see you start off your thread saying you've never capped MLB, and then you blow everyone out. Nice! I'm younger than most cappers here, but blowing most of them away, so fvck the haters brutha. I've been trained in the market in several different ways, and have attended the University of Illinois in Industrial Design. Father has been a broker for 30 years. I work with Engineers, I bet. So don't listen to people bring you down about lack of experience/veterancy. Live your life, and do stuff! Do a lot of things!

I hope some of you followed today because so far we are making $$$.

[Cougar Bait]

therber, yeah I have been on here awhile capping and posting plays, but this is the first year for me capping baseball. It's going pretty well so far...haven't had any "haters" in my thread yet, actually I like being under the radar...

GL with the rest of the card today

[therber2]

therber, yeah I have been on here awhile capping and posting plays, but this is the first year for me capping baseball. It's going pretty well so far...haven't had any "haters" in my thread yet, actually I like being under the radar...

GL with the rest of the card today

That's good to hear man.

[therber2]

Totals setup (15 day):
League avg. = 27%


COL/SFO 8 +0
MIN/CLE 8 -.2 (.5 units)
BOS/BAL 8.5 -2.5 (.5 units)
MIL/SDG 7.5 +.45 (.5 units)
ARI/CUB # +.5 (2 units) Cubs haters
NYM/PHI 9 +1.15 (2.5 units)
CIN/STL 7.5 -1.2 (3 units)
WAS/FLA 8.5 +3.1 (3 units)
LAA/DET 8.5 -.65 (3 units)
HOU/ATL 9 - 8.5 -3.75 (3.5 units)
TEX/SEA 7 -2.9 (4.5 units)
KC/TAM 8 +4.1 (5 units) *bull
OAK/TOR 8.5 +1.75 (5 units)
CWS/NYY 9.5 +5.65 (5.5 units)
PIT/LOS 8.5 -4.9 (6 units)

15 day

MIN/CLE 14% Twins
MIL/SDG 4.1% Brewers
LAA/DET 5.5% Angels

7 day

MIN/CLE 15.8% Twins
MIL/SDG 5.2% Padres
LAA/DET 3.3% Angels

3 day

MIN/CLE 0% Cleveland looks a little hotter short term
MIL/SDG 14.6% Padres
LAA/DET 3.7% Detroit

Twins -160 (7 units)
Detroit -120 (7 units)
Padres EV (5 units)


Other notes:
Brewers letting up more runs 3day, 13.6% more 7day, 12.2% more 15 day
Cleveland letting up more runs 3day, 7day, and 15 day
Angels letting up more runs 3day, 7day, 15 day

5 day BP WHIP diff.
Padres 1.00 Brewers 1.44; .44
Twins 1.197 Indians 1.933; .736
Detroit 1.016 Angels 1.695; .679

5 day Slug diff:
Tigers .522 Angels .470; .052
Twins .397 Indians .412; .015 *Indians excel slightly in all batting catagories
Padres .321 Brewers .419; .098 *Brewers excel slightly in all batting catagories

Very strange trend:
Past 3 days:
There were 16 runs scored in the first inning. 12 out of 16 of those happened when I had a bet on the UNDER. There were 18 bets on the under so this trend hit at 66.6% I cannot explain the logic in this; I have just noticed it.

NYM/PHI yes (.5 units) 51%
MIN/CLE yes (.5 units) 35%
CIN/STL yes (1 units) 59%
LAA/DET yes (.5 units) 43%
HOU/ATL yes (1 units) 49%
TEX/SEA yes (1 unit) 52%
PIT/LOS yes (2 units) 51%
BOS/BAL yes (3.5 units) 54%
MIL/SDG yes (.25 unit) 38%

Well...these aren't working. Time of that season when the bats are cold to start? Considering slamming the whole card tomorrow...law of averages. Maybe my theory from the other day was just a fluke; there was barely logic in the trend. I could make something up...but not a very good story teller. :-)

[therber2]

Victory

Record for 5/2:

16-8 +31 units with a few pending to most likely add a few more units.

[therber2]

5/3 Prep.

By now folks, if you care enough you should know what I am doing. I am purposely exposing the system so that you guys engage and optimize this. I have a few ideas; if anyone would like to volunteer. I have some jobs. PM or email me if interested. I hope I have won some of you some good money by now.

Okay, Jersey here we go. I am going to break out the big card; then we narrow it down.

15 days RS diff.s:
League avg. = 27.1%

COL/SDG 6.5 -.1
ARI/HOU 9 -.95 (.5 units)
NYM/CIN 9 -.4 (2 units)
STL/PHI 9 -1.3 (2.5 unit)
TOR/CLE 8.5 -2.95 (2.5 units)
TEX/OAK 8 +1.65 (3 units)
DET/MIN 9 +2.05 (4 units)
LAA/BOS 9 +2.05 (4 units)
KC/CWS 9.5 +1.6 (4.5 units)
BAL/NYY 9 +3.8 (6.5 units)

[therber2]

15 day difference leans

**Note: Yankees just scored in 5 of 8 innings at home
*STL just scored in 4 of 8 innings at home

15 day difference leans

Bold = team in favor

1BAL/NYY 10% (home)
2DET/MIN 9.9%
3NYM/CIN 5.6%
4TOR/CLE 4.7%
5STL/PHI 4.2% (away)
6TEX/OAK 4.1%
7COL/SDG 3.2%
8KC/CWS 2.8%
9ARI/HOU 1.1%
10LAA/BOS 0.1%

7 day difference leans

Bold = team in favor

1LAA/BOS 8.2%
2ARI/HOU 7.2
3BAL/NYY 7% [B](home)
4KC/CWS 6.9%
5COL/SDG 6.1%
6STL/PHI 6.2% (away)
7DET/MIN 4.2%
8NYM/CIN 3.3%
9TOR/CLE 1.6%
10TEX/OAK1.2%

3 day difference leans
1KC/CWS 23.5 HOT
2ARI/HOU 22.2% HOT
3TOR/CLE11.9% TOR HOT out of no where. Clev struggling
4LAA/BOS 9.7%
5BAL/NYY 8.9% [B](home)
6STL/PHI 7.4 (away) STL is getting warmer
7DET/MIN 4.4%
8COL/SDG 1.4%
9TEX/OAK 1.1%
10NYM/CIN 1%

[darkenergy]

Glad to see that list.
I outline few team I'm gonna do a series chase myself, and few of them are on your list, Yanks, Min, Philly, Arizona, LAA, But I'm gonna try to fade Toronto there.
Glad to see your numbers support my list.

[therber2]

Glad to see that list.
I outline few team I'm gonna do a series chase myself, and few of them are on your list, Yanks, Min, Philly, Arizona, LAA, But I'm gonna try to fade Toronto there.
Glad to see your numbers support my list.

Well that is exactly what we are looking for darkenergy. Could you say why each of these teams will be a chase for you?
NYY: ____
MIN: ____
PHI: ____
ARI: ____
LAA: ____

And ty for the points. Be careful chasing darkenergy. Word is quite a few people lost hard today with Seattle. shame.

[therber2]

Breakdown

Teams consistent in three catagories:

NYY
MIN
CWS favorite play so far
ARI HOT *probably worn down after run in with the Cubs in the Windy city.
COL


Teams consistent in 2 catagories:
CIN top two (losing steam) NYM (1 unit)
TOR top and bottom (making comeback)
BOS bottom two (putting themselves together)***


D-Backs (1 unit)
Minnesota (1 units)
NYM +125 (1 units)
STL -112 (2.5 units)
Oakland -130 (2 units)
Chicago White Sox RL +125 (3 units)
NYY -150 RL (3.5 units)
Toronto +107 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox -157 (5 units)

[darkenergy]

Well that is exactly what we are looking for darkenergy. Could you say why each of these teams will be a chase for you?
NYY: ____
MIN: ____
PHI: ____
ARI: ____
LAA: ____
And ty for the points. Be careful chasing darkenergy. Word is quite a few people lost hard today with Seattle. shame.

The reason I feel strongly about the list of teams I'm going to chase is because those teams are in good position, IMO (either they are good team, and/or home field advantage, or facing a team that perform inconsistent at home (tail); or a mediocre team facing an elite team (fade)).
More or less the decision coming from a combination of a guts feeling and coin flip . Well, it all preliminary though.
Now quickly scan through the list:
Baltimore sweep Yanks at home...............almost impossible.
Detroit sweep Twins at home..................almost impossible (Twins are red hot at home)
St. Louis sweep Philly at home.................almost impossible
Houston going to sweep Arizona...............maybe, but I like my chance with zona, they are better than Pirate IMO
Boston going to sweep LAA.....................well this could be, but I still like my chance with LAA. This is a tricky series, but as long as LAA are underdog, I'll think they going to take 1 out of the series.

You might not like my reasoning, but I have confident that three picks out of the list I won't lose (Yanks, Twins, Philly......and they are probably going to be high chalk). LAA might be dog all three games, so only 1 hit I'm good. Arizona, well I don't have a problem to betting again sorry Ass_tro, even they are at home.

Now, that all my preliminary thoughts when I first scan through the schedule.
Now, with the stats that you are posting above will help me solidified or filter out some of my picks on the list (and that what the points for, thank you)

[therber2]

Thanks darkenergy. I agree with most of the, but I don't like to chase. The most I'll ever chase is two games. If you are most selective with some of these you could wait for one of these teams to **** up at home, and then chase them on the RL. That way a loss doesn't kill you. and most of the time you are dealing with + money.

I personally think that LAA is a struggling team, and Boston will come out on top here. Careful.

[TodaysAction]

Tom,

You'll have e-mail in a few.

Terry

[therber2]

Alrighty

[solobass]

Best of luck keep looking at the numbers. You might be staring at the magic bullet and not know it yet!

[therber2]

Best of luck keep looking at the numbers. You might be staring at the magic bullet and not know it yet!

Hey Solo, yeah I can only hope so. A big shout out to Steve at cleanup hitter who has helped me gather this data. I still would like to automate it further. Just need to run it more, and see how goes. Yes, it may be the magic bullet or just a fluke. Sometime I'd like to get some of your insight as well.

[shoebox]

nice start therber good job!

[therber2]

nice start therber good job!

Thanks guys. You two are welcome in here anytime you like. I'm hot right now; law of averages is whispering in my ear that its gonna get me so I need all the help I can get

Shoe. Glad to see you've rocked NBA. Holy smokes

[JerseyShop101]

Jersey, I'm going to put extra effort in the card for Monday. We get 14 picks for 7 days. Let's blow them out of the water.

25/25 Paid in full.

Thanks again Therber2!

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Hi -

I've been following your thread for a few weeks. I see that your results are very good and your units won speak for themselves. I've pretty much just been tailing your totals when the differential is 2.00 or more.

I can't for the life of me understand what the logic is with the number-crunching using 15 day - 7 day etc., etc.

I'm not saying the logic is faulty - I just can't fathom what you're doing. What's your premise behind it?

I know that your concepts are based on math and statistical analysis which are my buzzwords. In essence (if you could take the time to), could you explain what your primary data is based on and how it leads you to your selections? I'd appreciate (if you have the time) to walk me through one of your game selections.

One other thing, your data regarding the lineups and the ABs and Hits, etc., etc. I think are already factored into your data above (that I am referring to) and even when they support your picks I think that they can confuse the masses here since they should already show up in your initial data. I think you can dispense with it. - No offense intended -

Basically, I feel like you are Einstein-like with these number-crunches and that you're really on to something.

Thanks in advance for any explanations.

Also, please e-mail me if you don't want to get into a lengthy explanation here. I am semi-retired and sit at my laptop most of the day updating my sports records and I'd be willing to do what I can to assist.

jioahmn@gmail.com

Good Work and Good Luck.

[darkenergy]

Great question vinny .
If therber can writeup the answer here would be great for others as well, but if you (therber) decided to go email route can I have a copy of it if you don't mind.
Thanks

[JerseyShop101]

Vinny,

We'll wait for Therber2 reply, but in the meantime..... the 15 day, 7 day, (it really should be worded games, not days, Therber2 pls correct me if I'm wrong). It is the % of innings in which a team has scored at least 1 run, divided by innings batted in)

For Example Last 5 games:
In the last 5 games, New York Yankees have scored at least 1 run in 20 of their 43 innings in which they batted in, they lead this category with a rate of 46.5%.
On the opposite end, the Milwaukee Brewers have only scored in 5 innings of their last 50, a low 10%.

The main basis was to see how good or bad a team is capable of pushing at least one run across in a given inning. I originally was tracking it for use with the 1st Inning Prop of a run to score or not, but found it was useful in totals and sides as well.

As far as the AB/hits, I was adding to this where the batters vs pitchers stats from the last 5 years also support a teams Runs Scored percentage to help cap the games. I'll start using a different thread to keep them separate to keep it less confusing.

[therber2]

Hi -

I've been following your thread for a few weeks. I see that your results are very good and your units won speak for themselves. I've pretty much just been tailing your totals when the differential is 2.00 or more.

I can't for the life of me understand what the logic is with the number-crunching using 15 day - 7 day etc., etc.

I'm not saying the logic is faulty - I just can't fathom what you're doing. What's your premise behind it?

I know that your concepts are based on math and statistical analysis which are my buzzwords. In essence (if you could take the time to), could you explain what your primary data is based on and how it leads you to your selections? I'd appreciate (if you have the time) to walk me through one of your game selections.

One other thing, your data regarding the lineups and the ABs and Hits, etc., etc. I think are already factored into your data above (that I am referring to) and even when they support your picks I think that they can confuse the masses here since they should already show up in your initial data. I think you can dispense with it. - No offense intended -

Basically, I feel like you are Einstein-like with these number-crunches and that you're really on to something.

Thanks in advance for any explanations.

Also, please e-mail me if you don't want to get into a lengthy explanation here. I am semi-retired and sit at my laptop most of the day updating my sports records and I'd be willing to do what I can to assist.

jioahmn@gmail.com

Good Work and Good Luck.

Hello Vinny,

I am glad you are interested, and I am flattered being compared to my hero . Not even close though I am afraid. There are some real brains here Vinny, and around town. A lot of what I am doing was derived from a study Jerseyshop did last season; he is definitely one to credit here. The Big Card is a collaborative project. I have learned a lot from some of the veterans here; as a younger guy I am applying what I have seen working, and then making attempt to optimize. So far I've done well, but let's be honest; everyone will have a good run. Another disclaimer to the masses: if you appreciate the law of avgs. you will know that I am now due for a real s|-|it run. But I will be wary of that in my own books. As far "The Big Card." We never sleep here. The record could go negative, but that isn't what it is about. We find something that is logical and works statistically, and then optimize. I am ALWAYS open to feedback, and later I am going to really think about what you wrote; I have a meeting to got to in about 20 minutes so I need to wrap up for now.

JerseyShop, thank you for your response; he is pretty much spot on as to where I start things off; however, there are plenty of other factors. I have a couple of quick things to say, and then I will answer this question in more depth. First off, this thread is littered with disclaimers directed towards the masses telling them basically to not come crying to me, and I don't want any praise either; just results. This is the MLB think tank, and if you participate you should know that playing all of these exactly may not be the best approach. I don't always play what I post, so note to all; be aware of that. JS, I WOULD like to see you go back to you daily posts on hitters' prev. performance vs. specific pitchers. It would be good to keep seeing those results. If you want to do it here it is perfectly fine to do so; it is entirely up to you. There are pros and cons, and I will leave that up to you.

Now, onto the question...well....time is running out here like I said so what you guys could do is ask a question refering to a quotation in another post and I will explain exactly what I am talking about. I think there is already enough info to get the jist, but yes I do make notes to myself a lot I realize that. So ask away on the specifics whatever they maybe.

Welcome to the thread my friend.

Okay quick edit: very simplified work flow example and I'll explain it formulaically:
15 day inns with run scored/innings played % = 33% for team A
15 day inns with run scored/innings played % = 27% for team A
average = 30% if leage avg. = 27.5% (this is variable daily) then we have a +2.5
+2.5 is a good starting point to compare all teams on the card. First step is to sort every game on the list by this differential, and then I add and subtract with varying weight different factors/situations/gut feelings; bulk of the weight always being the hypothetical 2.5. This is good because I am never too sway then by some gut feeling. The list of main secondary factors is innings with runs allowed / innings with run scored, bullpen 5 day whip, batting, upsets, streaks, wind, weather, list goes on...but I never justify a play if I have to go this far. This is the best way right now for me to explain it. I guess a big lesson here is how little I really look at starting pitchers and how it hasn't mattered so far. Main thing I look at with SP's is their career stats vs. last 3 games. Jersey then helps me out with batters' performance history vs. specific pitchers.

[Foghorn]

NYM +125 (1 units)
STL -112 (2.5 units)
Oakland -130 (2 units)
Chicago White Sox RL +125 (3 units)
NYY -150 RL (3.5 units)
Toronto +107 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox -157 (5 units)

Therbs, nice job with you and the boys tonight...........................keep up the good work

[therber2]

Wasn't expecting another run like this. How is life Foggy boy?

[therber2]

25/25 Paid in full.

Thanks again Therber2!

We're all good brutha.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thanks for the quick replies Jerseyshop and Therber.

Jerseyshop, if Thurber wants you to keep posting the batter vs. pitcher data here, keep doing it. Now that I know what it means and that it supports what Therber has going on here I'm good with that. Saves us from running around to different threads.

So, if I understand Thurber's premise regarding sides - the more consistently a team scores on a per inning percentile basis, the more likely they will amass enough runs in the end to win more than they lose? Makes sense to me.

As for totals, the logic is obvious - scoring more often is a cumulative thing supporting OVERS. Less often supports UNDERS.

The only thing I'd like to add, Thurber is this (as constructive advice) -
Try to tighten up your units on these picks; your ranges are 1 unit on some and 5 units on others; it's not (to me) realistic. I'd never risk 5 times as much on 1 bet than I did with another; I'd pass the 1 unit bet. For example, if a unit was only $10, I would maybe bet $50 on the 5 unit pick, but I wouldn't bother betting $10 on the 1 unit pick. You can grade your strength of sides this way (in units, or numbers, or whatever), and we track their winning % of differing grades with it. If that's what you're doing, OK, but let's chart it.

Again, the above is intended to be constructive, and not me picking anything apart here.

Your totals of 2.0 and more went 3-1 again tonight; great work !!

[therber2]

COL/SDG 6.5 -.1
ARI/HOU 9 -.95 (.5 units)
NYM/CIN 9 -.4 (2 units)
STL/PHI 9 -1.3 (2.5 unit) PUSH
TOR/CLE 8.5 -2.95 (2.5 units)
TEX/OAK 8 +1.65 (3 units)
DET/MIN 9 +2.05 (4 units)
LAA/BOS 9 +2.05 (4 units)
KC/CWS 9.5 +1.6 (4.5 units)
BAL/NYY 9 +3.8 (6.5 units)

D-Backs (1 unit)
Minnesota (1 units)
NYM +125 (1 units)
STL -112 (2.5 units)
Oakland -130 (2 units)
Chicago White Sox RL +125 (3 units)
NYY -150 RL (3.5 units)
Toronto +107 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox -157 (5 units)

9-5-1 +13.93 units

[therber2]

Thanks for the quick replies Jerseyshop and Therber.

Jerseyshop, if Thurber wants you to keep posting the batter vs. pitcher data here, keep doing it. Now that I know what it means and that it supports what Therber has going on here I'm good with that. Saves us from running around to different threads.

So, if I understand Thurber's premise regarding sides - the more consistently a team scores on a per inning percentile basis, the more likely they will amass enough runs in the end to win more than they lose? Makes sense to me.

As for totals, the logic is obvious - scoring more often is a cumulative thing supporting OVERS. Less often supports UNDERS.

The only thing I'd like to add, Thurber is this (as constructive advice) -
Try to tighten up your units on these picks; your ranges are 1 unit on some and 5 units on others; it's not (to me) realistic. I'd never risk 5 times as much on 1 bet than I did with another; I'd pass the 1 unit bet. For example, if a unit was only $10, I would maybe bet $50 on the 5 unit pick, but I wouldn't bother betting $10 on the 1 unit pick. You can grade your strength of sides this way (in units, or numbers, or whatever), and we track their winning % of differing grades with it. If that's what you're doing, OK, but let's chart it.

Again, the above is intended to be constructive, and not me picking anything apart here.

Your totals of 2.0 and more went 3-1 again tonight; great work !!

Vinny,

Jersey has the option to post, not post, have his own thread; I personally prefer (for my own convenience and for our prosperity) that he post here; however, if it makes sense to do another thread to stay organized that is fine by me. I wouldn't worry too much about how that will all pan out.

I explained above where I come up with unit sizes; the fear of betting too big here is non existent. My units are a way for me to rank my plays. Some bets have more value than others.

If you would like to rank my bets a certain way that would actually be awesome because then it could point out to me where I am going wrong.Something like this: "Your totals of 2.0 and more went 3-1 again tonight" is very useful to me Vinny. It has been hard for me lately to keep doing these all nighters. This is why I am looking for ways to save time with this. We've already made excellent progress in this area.

[therber2]

I am noticing that the deviation from the initial unit size has been good for optimizing units earned; however, I think I need to reconsider how I weight certain factors (note to self) and thank you for that thought Vinny...in some cases it hasn't been so good.

[therber2]

5/3

New experiment: equalizing RA and RS weight no other factors
This is a test; only a test.

RS 15 day league avg. 26.8%

ATL/WAS under9 -3.85
CUB/PIT under8 -.65
STL/PHI under8.5 -.15
NYM/CIN under9.5 -.85
SFO/FLA over7 +.1
ARI/HOU under8 -.65
COL/SDG over7 +.3
MIL/LOS under8.5 -2
TOR/CLE under8.5 -1.85
BAL/NYY over9 +4.4
LAA/BOS over9.5 +1.75
DET/MIN over9.5 +2.3 note to self: (under init. lean)
KC/CWS over9 +.45
TEX/OAK over +.5
TAM/SEA under7.5 -.45

RA 15 day league avg. 26.7%

ATL/WAS under9 -1.55
CUB/PIT over8 +4.75
STL/PHI under8.5 -5.25
NYM/CIN under9.5 -2.2
SFO/FLA under7 -2.4
ARI/HOU over8 +5.4
COL/SDG under7 -7.1
MIL/LOS over8.5 +2.75
TOR/CLE over8.5 +1.85
BAL/NYY over9 +1.7
LAA/BOS over9.5 +1.1
DET/MIN over9.5 +.8
KC/CWS 9 +5.15
TEX/OAK under -.5
TAM/SEA under7.5 -4.85

[therber2]

5/4 Big Card Totals

RS and RA 15 day diff.'s averaged:


TOR/CLE 8.5 +0
TEX/OAK +0
MIL/LOS 8.5 .375 (.5 units)
SFO/FLA 7 -1.15 (1 unit)
LAA/BOS 9.5 +1.425 (1.5 units)
NYM/CIN 9.5 -1.525 (1.5 units)
DET/MIN 9.5 +1.55 (1.5 units)
CUB/PIT 8 +2.05 (2 units)
ARI/HOU 8 +2.375 (2.5 units)
TAM/SEA 7.5 -2.65 (2.5 units)
STL/PHI 8.5 -2.7 (3 units)
ATL/WAS 9 -2.7 (3 units)
KC/CWS 9 +2.8 (3 units)
BAL/NYY 9 +3.05 (3 units)
COL/SDG 7 -3.4 (3.5 units)

[mebaran]

Like what you did with the decreased units. I'd feel comfortable with those numbers until we get a chance to analyze which differentials do the best.