The Big Card

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -

Thanks for the responses.

Any sides tonight?

- Vinny

[JerseyShop101]

Therber2, here's 3 I'm looking at:

Arizona +103
Boston -178
Chicago Cubs -154

Arizona (6th in Batting Average, 2nd in Home Runs, 5th in OBP) Starters 21-73 .287 against Oswalt
Boston (8th in Batting Average, 3rd in Home Runs, 9th in OBP) I like Bostons Lester 0 ERs in last 12.1 IP
Chicago Cubs (4th in Batting Average, 5th in Home Runs, 6th in OBP) 37-106 .349 against Maholm

[therber2]

Like what you did with the decreased units. I'd feel comfortable with those numbers until we get a chance to analyze which differentials do the best.

What I did was NOT with the intention of decreasing unit size. Just happened that way. Hope it works out today as it is a new test.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thanks for what you do, both of you.

-Vinny

[therber2]

Therber2, here's 3 I'm looking at:

Arizona +103
Boston -178
Chicago Cubs -154

Arizona (6th in Batting Average, 2nd in Home Runs, 5th in OBP) Starters 21-73 .287 against Oswalt
Boston (8th in Batting Average, 3rd in Home Runs, 9th in OBP) I like Bostons Lester 0 ERs in last 12.1 IP
Chicago Cubs (4th in Batting Average, 5th in Home Runs, 6th in OBP) 37-106 .349 against Maholm

Sorry I'm late (like I explained before).. just got in. I like Cubs the most off that card. Think that is the one I'll take.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

For what it's worth -

Being a hard-core Red Sox fan all my life, Lester has great results at home at Fenway, he normally starts slow and gets better as the year progresses.

That being said, my gut tells me that after the plethora of runs scored last night, they lose a one run game tonight. They had trouble scoring in Baltimore, and they come home and it's like flipping a switch?

They remind me a lot of Milwaukee, who wins 20-0 and 17 to something else but loses 5 of the next 6.

Just my 2 cents, Lord knows my gut's not always right.

- Vinny

[therber2]

No sides today boys don't want to hand out crap. It takes me a few hours to do this. Today I didn't have the time.

[therber2]

RS and RA 15 day diff.'s averaged:


TOR/CLE 8.5 +0
TEX/OAK +0
MIL/LOS 8.5 .375 (.5 units)
SFO/FLA 7 -1.15 (1 unit)
LAA/BOS 9.5 +1.425 (1.5 units)
NYM/CIN 9.5 -1.525 (1.5 units)
DET/MIN 9.5 +1.55 (1.5 units)
CUB/PIT 8 +2.05 (2 units)
ARI/HOU 8 +2.375 (2.5 units)
TAM/SEA 7.5 -2.65 (2.5 units)
STL/PHI 8.5 -2.7 (3 units)
ATL/WAS 9 -2.7 (3 units) PUSH
KC/CWS 9 +2.8 (3 units)
BAL/NYY 9 +3.05 (3 units)
COL/SDG 7 -3.4 (3.5 units)

5-7-1 -3.5 units

[therber2]

For what it's worth -

Being a hard-core Red Sox fan all my life, Lester has great results at home at Fenway, he normally starts slow and gets better as the year progresses.

That being said, my gut tells me that after the plethora of runs scored last night, they lose a one run game tonight. They had trouble scoring in Baltimore, and they come home and it's like flipping a switch?

They remind me a lot of Milwaukee, who wins 20-0 and 17 to something else but loses 5 of the next 6.

Just my 2 cents, Lord knows my gut's not always right.

- Vinny

Vinny, Jersey and I discussed to idea that there are a million different angles that you can take. I guess that yes it does come down a bit to what your gut is telling you. If you could track a team's % chance to end or continue a streak like what you said above (the is personal experience which can make you biased; numbers are of course better), we would have a great angle. If you would like to pursue this I would say that it is definately worth doing. It is VERY logical, and could give you the edge to create winners.

therber2

[therber2]

The Starting point

Okay, to the programmers or people who like to give points ; so I don't have to type this over again.

Here is "the starting point" I will use the first game on the card tomorrow as the example. The information required can be obtained directly here: http://cleanuphitter.com/mlb/stats/i...form=GET+STATS

NYM/CIN game total line is 9 some with 8.5 so it looks like bets are being taken on the under or the books are trying to lure in some false side bets.

Anyways, for 15 days Cincinnati is having 5 innings with a run scored out of 29 total innings played (17.2%). The Mets are 4 innings with a run scored out of 29 total innings played (13.8%). The league average for innings with runs scored/total innings played is 27.1%. The matchup average is 15.5% so we have a differential of negative 11.6 points which is then initially a very huge lean on the under for this matchup.

Again, this is the starting point at least for now; there may be parts of the season where I want to use a different direction; whatever makes sense; whatever works.

[therber2]

Big Card 5/5

League Avg. = 27.1%
MIL/LOS 9 -.5 (1 units)
ARI/HOU 8-4.9 (2 units)
TOR/CLE 8.5 +2.25 (2 units) *tor
ATL/WAS 8 +4.6 (2.5 units)
SFO/FLA 8.5 +2.9 (3 units)
TEX/OAK 8.5 -4.05 (4.5 units) ^oak*
COL/SDG 7.5 -2.55 (5.5 units)
STL/PHI 10 +6.9 (5.5 units)
BAL/NYY 9.5 +3.85 (6.5 units)
DET/MIN 10 +6.5 (7 units)
KC/CWS 9 -6.55 (8 units)
LAA/BOS 9.5 +6.2 units (8.5 units)
NYM/CIN 9-11.6 (10 units)
CUB/PIT 9 +11.3 (11 units)
TAM/SEA 6.5-13.45 (15.5 units)

Final

Disclaimer: This is for recreational purposes only. Play or don't play. It is up to you not me.

[therber2]

CUBS -1.5 RL +105 (5 units)
Cubs -152 (2 units)
Toronto +110 (2 units)


Jersey what do you think here?

Other leans for those early games: TOR and CIN (more on Toronto).

Also see if any of these check:
KC/CWS 9 -6.55 (8 units)
LAA/BOS 9.5 +6.2 units (8.5 units)
NYM/CIN 9-11.6 (10 units)
CUB/PIT 9 +11.3 (11 units)
TAM/SEA 6.5-13.45 (15.5 units)

[JerseyShop101]

cubs -1.5 rl (5 units)

jersey what do you think here?

Other leans for those early games: Tor and cin (more on toronto).

Also see if any of these check:
Kc/cws 9 -6.55 (8 units)
laa/bos 9.5 +6.2 units (8.5 units)
nym/cin 9-11.6 (10 units)
cub/pit 9 +11.3 (11 units)
tam/sea 6.5-13.45 (15.5 units)

[ATTACH]11835[/ATTACH]

Two plays stand out to me:

I definitely agree with the Cubs play. Lilly has held the Pirates in check and everyone facing Morton has been having batting practice. It continues!

I also like the Mets/Cincy Under9. Mets are ranked 29th in hitting, Cincy ranks 24th. Niese is on fire having given up only 2 runs in his last 18 IP.

[sycoogtit]

80+ units on today's card... good thing we're not playing the entire card... Read the EDIT! Don't really put 80 units down today! The units I used for this card were .1% of BR!

I've read this entire thread (which I think has taken me longer to read than any other thread on this forum -- I've probably learned more here than all the other threads in the forum combined), so if you've explained this please forgive me. You can just refer to the post instead of repeating yourself.

How are you calculating your units to wager? I thought it was ABS(RS% differential), but today's card has a few oddities, like:

ARI/HOU 8-4.9 (2 units)

and

TAM/SEA 6.5-13.45 (15.5 units) who has the balls? remember 6.5 is a number like any other Final

Yikes! Your balls must have balls the size of my balls.

Thanks for your refreshing approach in this forum!

EDIT
I don't want someone new to this thread see some idiot like me putting 80+ units down and think you should use up your entire bankroll. I did play the whole card because I think therber's system is fun, but I'm using really small units for this "experimental" system.

[darkenergy]

Okay, to the programmers or people who like to give points ; so I don't have to type this over again. Here is "the starting point" I will use the first game on the card tomorrow as the example. The information required can be obtained directly here: http://cleanuphitter.com/mlb/stats/i...form=GET+STATS NYM/CIN game total line is 9 some with 8.5 so it looks like bets are being taken on the under or the books are trying to lure in some false side bets. Anyways, for 15 days Cincinnati is having 5 innings with a run scored out of 29 total innings played (17.2%). The Mets are 4 innings with a run scored out of 29 total innings played (13.8%). The league average for innings with runs scored/total innings played is 27.1%. The matchup average is 15.5% so we have a differential of negative 11.6 points which is then initially a very huge lean on the under for this matchup. Again, this is the starting point at least for now; there may be parts of the season where I want to use a different direction; whatever makes sense; whatever works.

Therber, thanks for posting this.
But help me out, I want to be able to read all the data myself, just in case you are going for tout, LOL
I looking up on cleanuphitter, couldn't find out how to select 15 days average, rather I find last 15 games average, and the number for innings and scored are not similar to what you're posting.
Thanks

[sycoogtit]

looking up on cleanuphitter, couldn't find out how to select 15 days average, rather I find last 15 games average

If I'm correctly reading what you're saying, then you're right. therber means the last 15 days.

and the number for innings and scored are not similar to what you're posting.

I'm also confused by this. I thought he was posting the difference between the league average (bottom row of cleanup hitter table) and those two team's averages. So using NYM/CIN as an example you would get:

28% (mets) + 28.4% (reds) / 2 = 28.2%
28.2% - 27.3% (League Avg) = +.9%

I noticed he posted that at 1:15 AM Central and the stats on cleanup hitter weren't updated until 2:17 AM Central. Not sure if that would account for that big of a difference.

[darkenergy]

F*ck my English, but sycootit, I think you got my question and confusion correctly Sir.
I think either we misunderstand his point, or he post wrong data.
If I am not mistaken, last 15 days, Cleveland played 14 games, that should be 126 innings ( I didn't back check if there were any extra innings in those time span).

[therber2]

How are you calculating your units to wager? I thought it was ABS(RS% differential), but today's card has a few oddities, like:

Thanks for your refreshing approach in this forum!

EDIT
I don't want someone new to this thread see some idiot like me putting 80+ units down and think you should use up your entire bankroll. I did play the whole card because I think therber's system is fun, but I'm using really small units for this "experimental" system.

Yes, wouldn't recommend anyone placing 80 units today. This has already been made clear. The two picks that Jersey and I have in consensus are good plays for sure though. I would stand behind you betting on those. If you played the whole card I hope you did it conservatively (betting unit size something like .01% bankroll).

About your question. Thing start with that starting point I mentioned, and then I weight in a million different factors and gut feelings. There is no precision formula past that point. Not doing these factors is what made the card stink yesterday; I was seeing if I could get away with not doing a late nighter.

So I hope today works out.

[therber2]

Therber, thanks for posting this.
But help me out, I want to be able to read all the data myself, just in case you are going for tout, LOL
I looking up on cleanuphitter, couldn't find out how to select 15 days average, rather I find last 15 games average, and the number for innings and scored are not similar to what you're posting.
Thanks

I've been doing this for a while now. Going tout is anybody's downfall. Not planning on it. This is a nice forum, and I'd probably be making more money connection with people than using their money to hedge my own shiity bets. That is what touts do, and then say that it is out of their own generosity.

15 day average is not a feature on cleanup; you have to calculate matchups yourself. Need something to automate this...

[sycoogtit]

If you played the whole card I hope you did it conservatively (betting unit size something like .01% bankroll)

Exactly what I did. I shouldn't have made that statement earlier about playing the whole card. I hope nobody does that with real units.

About your question. Thing start with that starting point I mentioned, and then I weight in a million different factors and gut feelings. There is no precision formula past that point. Not doing these factors is what made the card stink yesterday; I was seeing if I could get away with not doing a late nighter. So I hope today works out.

Got it. I'll get started on scraping the starting point.

One more question: Are you intentionally pulling the numbers before the stats are updated from that night's games?

[sycoogtit]

I lied. I have one more question.

Anyways, for 15 days Cincinnati is having 5 innings with a run scored out of 29 total innings played (17.2%). The Mets are 4 innings with a run scored out of 29 total innings played (13.8%). The league average for innings with runs scored/total innings played is 27.1%. The matchup average is 15.5% so we have a differential of negative 11.6 points which is then initially a very huge lean on the under for this matchup.

This still doesn't look right.

So using NYM/CIN as an example you would get:

28% (mets) + 28.4% (reds) / 2 = 28.2%
28.2% - 27.3% (League Avg) = +.9%

Isn't the differential a positive .9 points, which means a small lean for the over?

[therber2]

Just did it before the update. Honestly not sure why the data changed that much...thanks for pointing that out. Really thinking about scratching the whole card because I see all of the data is different. Was I high? No plays today guys. Something is afoot.

[therber2]

Exactly what I did. I shouldn't have made that statement earlier about playing the whole card. I hope nobody does that with real units.



Got it. I'll get started on scraping the starting point.

One more question: Are you intentionally pulling the numbers before the stats are updated from that night's games?

No it isn't intentional; I just don't think the difference from one game should be that great so I feel like it doesn't matter if it is from yesterday or today; however, today I am seeing some things that are very wrong with the card. I can't explain it so I am scratching it all. No worries we'll have another day. Glad you guys pointed this out. I'll keep an eye out for this kind of stuff. I wonder if I had the multisort set on a different duration?

[therber2]

This still doesn't look right.

Isn't the differential a positive .9 points, which means a small lean for the over?

Yes you are correct. I am trying to figure out why things are so out of wack. I scratched the whole card.

[darkenergy]

Yes you are correct. I am trying to figure out why things are so out of wack. I scratched the whole card.

Sh*t, everything booked.....80units on the line...................hahahahahaha

[therber2]

lol. I am worrying about that now. Hopefully everyone read the disclaimers...

Listen I am stepping out to a meeting until gametime. Would anyone be so kind as to produce those starting point differentials for today (15 day duration) to the current so that I can compare it to what I produced before. That would mean a lot. I am as confused by this as you are. Just trying to figure out what went wrong.

[sycoogtit]

I wonder if I had the multisort set on a different duration?

When I was looking earlier I thought it might have been set to 3 days.

[sycoogtit]

Sh*t, everything booked.....80units on the line...................hahahahahaha

Dude please tell me you're kidding.

[sycoogtit]

lol. I am worrying about that now. Hopefully everyone read the disclaimers... Listen I am stepping out to a meeting until gametime. Would anyone be so kind as to produce those starting point differentials for today (15 day duration) to the current so that I can compare it to what I produced before. That would mean a lot. I am as confused by this as you are. Just trying to figure out what went wrong.

I should be able to get this when I write the scraper, but it won't be until later in the day. If someone has time to do today's by hand that would be great.

[sycoogtit]

Sh*t, everything booked.....80units on the line...................hahahahahaha

You might want to consider hedging some of those 10+ unit bets. I'm NOT saying you should, but it might save your ass. However, it will hurt you if the original bets are correct. Make your own mind.... sh*t maybe I shouldn't post this... I just want to make sure you've considered it. 80 units is a lot. Fvck I feel like it's my fault that you're in so deep. I hope you were kidding.

[therber2]

I should be able to get this when I write the scraper, but it won't be until later in the day. If someone has time to do today's by hand that would be great.

Sounds good. Shame today went wacky. It was capped very well, but if there is a chance that there were initial glitches we can't risk that. I'll be more careful or make sure I get a screen shot of today and tomorrow to see if cleanup is glitching. Hopefully it was just human error.

GL today guys

[sycoogtit]

League Avg: 27.3
Athletics (26.7) v Rangers (29.3): 28 (0.70 differential) Tiny
Dodgers (28.1) v Brewers (25.9): 27 (-0.30 differential) Tiny
Red Sox (33.6) v Angels (24.6): 29.1 (1.80 differential) Light
Giants (25.9) v Marlins (27.4): 26.65 (-0.65 differential) Tiny
Astros (23.7) v D-backs (27.8): 25.75 (-1.55 differential) Light
Mariners (21.3) v Rays (32.1): 26.7 (-0.60 differential) Tiny
Rockies (27.1) v Padres (26.7): 26.9 (-0.40 differential) Tiny
Yankees (34.6) v Orioles (25.0): 29.8 (2.50 differential) Light
Indians (21.3) v Blue Jays (32.1): 26.7 (-0.60 differential) Tiny
Cardinals (27.7) v Phillies (27.0): 27.35 (0.05 differential) Tiny
Cubs (34.6) v Pirates (18.1): 26.35 (-0.95 differential) Tiny
Twins (33.6) v Tigers (26.7): 30.15 (2.85 differential) Light
White Sox (29.5) v Royals (24.5): 27 (-0.30 differential) Tiny
Reds (28.4) v Mets (28.0): 28.2 (0.90 differential) Tiny
Nationals (26.7) v Braves (22.3): 24.5 (-2.80 differential) Light


Leans Key
Heavy: abs(diff) >= 7
Mid: 3 <= abs(diff) < 7
Light: 1 <= abs(diff) < 3
Tiny: abs(diff) < 1

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Therber -

I'm just brainstorming here -

Compute each individual team's median runs scored - WHEN THEY SCORE. Also do this individually for each team's median runs allowed - WHEN THEY ALLOW RUNS. Use Medians, NOT an Average; Medians are more predictable in nature. High run amounts skew the numbers using averages. Some teams score 1 run on average an inning, other teams score in bunches. By doing what I suggest below it will account for these fluctuations.

Multiply this by each teams Inning's-scored percentage; in your example above. In today's case, Cincinnati is 17.2 and the Mets are 13.8. Multiply this by 9 (innings) to get each team's predicted runs scored per game.

You can do this again using each team's Median runs allowed and run's allowed percentages.

You can even break it down Home and Away for each team.

You would then have an individual predicted score for each team, and a total for the over and under.

On games where the home team is the predicted winner, you can back out 1/9th of the home team's runs, because if they are ahead after 8.5 innings, they won't be batting in the 9th.

What do you think?

- Vinny

[sycoogtit]

Okay I put up today's card with the scraped numbers. If you see errors PLEASE let me know. I can make this run every morning and automatically post it (at least I think I can get it posted automatically). If this is something we want then let me know.

[sycoogtit]

Looks like the original card was 9-6 with over/under direction, but none of the leans are as big.