The Big Card

[therber2]

Big Card May 12

STL -1.5 +130 (5 units)
STL -170 (5 units)
Reds +105 (10 units)
Yankees -170 (5 units) GM1 chase this if they lose for (10 units)
Twins -135 (10 units)
Twins -1.5 +170 (5 units)
Dodgers -112 (DSI) (10 units)
Boston -105 (3 units) Toronto avoiding a sweep be careful of either side here.
Cubs -120 (2.5 units)
Rays -103 (DSI) (10 units) Getting off the streak.
TAM/LAA u8 -115 (5 units)
Texas -140 (5 units)
SFO Giants -170 (10 units)

GL today guys!!

[sycoogtit]

5/12 card

Sorry it's so late.

Listed pitchers @ 9:30 AM PST
Three of the plays were scratched because I couldn't get the line as I have it listed, so I didn't play them.
orioles u9 -110 3u
cards u8 -107 2u
dbacks u9.5 +120 1u
rangers u9 +111 1u
cubs u8 +111 1u unmatched
mets u8 +111 1u unmatched
g1 rockies u8.5 +110 1u
brew u8.5 +102 1u unmatched
g2 rockies u10.5 -104 1u
angels u8 -105 1u
pirates u9 -111 1u
royals u9 -113 1u
twins u8.5 -127 1u

Listed pitchers @ 9:45 AM PST
rays +102 5.7u
rangers -132 1u
parlay mets -168 giants -168 6.4u

Listed pitchers @ 10:00 AM PST
parlay a's +130 tigers +131 2.3u
parlay mariners +106 indians -102 1.9u

Listed pitchers @ 10:45 AM PST
dodgers -111 1.5u

Listed pitchers @ 11:45 AM PST
giants u7.5 -124 1u
tigers u9.5 -117 1u

[sycoogtit]

5/11 card

huge card today...

Phillies Halladay @ Rockies Cook ML -178 7ucanceled
Rays Niemann @ Angels Kazmir ML -111 7u
Marlins (Nolasco ) @ Cubs (Wells ) ML -101 6u
Nats (Olsen ) @ Mets (Niese ) ML +127 5u
Mariners (Lee) @ Orioles (hernandez) under 7.5 -115 4u
A's Cahill @ Rangers Lewis under 9 +102 3.5u
Astros Myers @ Cards Penny under 7.5 -105 3.5u
Reds (Cueto) @ Pirates (morton) ML -116 3.5u
Braves Hudson @ Brewers Bush ML -116 3.5u
Mariners (Lee) @ Orioles (hernandez) ML -152 3.5u
White Sox Garcia @ Twins Slowey ML -168 3.5u
Astros Myers @ Cards Penny ML -240 3.5u
Blue Jays (Eveland ) @ Red Sox (Matsuzaka ) over 10.5 -108 3u
Indians Westbrook @ Royals Bannister ML +100 2u
Yanks (vazquez) @ Tigers (porcello) over 10 -113 2u canceled
Braves Hudson @ Brewers Bush under 8.5 +100 1.5u
Indians Westbrook @ Royals Bannister over 9 -105 1.5u
Dodgers Ely @ Dbacks Haren under 9 -108 1.5u
Padres Leblanc @ Giants Zito under 7.5 -126 1.5u
Yanks (vazquez) @ Tigers (porcello) ML -130 1u canceled
Blue Jays (Eveland ) @ Red Sox (Matsuzaka ) ML -160 1u
Phillies Halladay @ Rockies Cook under 8.5 -104 1u canceled
Reds (Cueto) @ Pirates (morton) under 8.5 -110 1u
Nats (Olsen ) @ Mets (Niese )under 8 -102 .5u
Marlins (Nolasco ) @ Cubs (Wells ) under 8.5 -109 .5u
White Sox Garcia @ Twins Slowey under 9 -111 .5u
Dodgers Ely @ Dbacks Haren ML +150 .5u
Rays Niemann @ Angels Kazmir over 8.5 -116 .5u
Padres Leblanc @ Giants Zito ML +140 .5u

Sides: 9-3 +8.67
Totals: 6-7 -2.15
Overall: 15-10 +6.52
--------

since 5/8

Sides: 28-21 +8.65
Totals: 23-19 +6.40u
Overall: 53-40 +15.05 units

[therber2]

Sides: 9-3 +8.67
Totals: 6-7 -2.15
Overall: 15-10 +6.52
--------

since 5/8

Sides: 28-21 +8.65
Totals: 23-19 +6.40u
Overall: 53-40 +15.05 units

Great work my friend.

[therber2]

Adding: NYY -1.5 -110 (10 units) GM2

[sycoogtit]

Great work my friend.

Thanks man. Yesterday was a good day, but I spent about 5 hours capping those games. Today I definitely spent less time actually capping and more time... well that's classified. Hopefully soon I can consistently have days as good or better than yesterday without spending so much time on them.

Although if today ends up sucking then I'll be pretty sad that I didn't cap today's games like I did yesterday's.

[solobass]

Reds and jays! Too bad the marlins could not pull it out for us they had their chances. Heavy hitters tonight.

[sycoogtit]

Detroit's manager must have the over.

[sycoogtit]

5/12 card

Sorry it's so late.

Listed pitchers @ 9:30 AM PST
Three of the plays were scratched because I couldn't get the line as I have it listed, so I didn't play them.
orioles u9 -110 3u
cards u8 -107 2u
dbacks u9.5 +120 1u
rangers u9 +111 1u
cubs u8 +111 1u unmatched
mets u8 +111 1u unmatched
g1 rockies u8.5 +110 1u
brew u8.5 +102 1u unmatched
g2 rockies u10.5 -104 1u canceled
angels u8 -105 1u
pirates u9 -111 1u
royals u9 -113 1u
twins u8.5 -127 1u

Listed pitchers @ 9:45 AM PST
rays +102 5.7u
rangers -132 1u
parlay mets -168 giants -168 6.4u

Listed pitchers @ 10:00 AM PST
parlay a's +130 tigers +131 2.3u
parlay mariners +106 indians -102 1.9u

Listed pitchers @ 10:45 AM PST
dodgers -111 1.5u

Listed pitchers @ 11:45 AM PST
giants u7.5 -124 1u
tigers u9.5 -117 1u

Good job with those parlays jackass.

12-5 +5.6u

since 5/8
65-45 +20.7 units

[therber2]

Thanks man. Yesterday was a good day, but I spent about 5 hours capping those games. Today I definitely spent less time actually capping and more time... well that's classified. Hopefully soon I can consistently have days as good or better than yesterday without spending so much time on them.

Although if today ends up sucking then I'll be pretty sad that I didn't cap today's games like I did yesterday's.

Ok, pretty sure I know what you mean. That is good to hear brutha as it was the same for me.

Sycoogtit. We are on to something here; however, remember we are only one week in. I have a 80% certainty that we will be able to see the same results with this method over and over as I used this method (similar) last year watching Jerseyshop; however, we need to run it for a season (we may have stumbled on it while it is streaking, keep it logged as we have done so. I also have confidence that what Jersey posted in the other forum will keep hitting at the rate he is seeing!

[therber2]

12-5 +5.6u

since 5/8
65-45 +20.7 units

[therber2]

Reds and jays! Too bad the marlins could not pull it out for us they had their chances. Heavy hitters tonight.

Hi Solo,

Of your plays for today my system was in consensus with your for 3 out of 5. The ones we agree on ALL won. The other two, 1 of mine won (Cubs 71.43% probability) and 1 of mine lost (Boston 100% probability).

To note: The Marlins were a good value play; the Cubs were due for a win; however, it would have been wreckless to take them for more than what I did since they are playing so erratic.

Second, the Blue Jays were previously swept at home by Boston, and lost again yesterday pretty bad. In this case it would be wreckless to take Boston for more than what I did.

We have completely different ways of looking at our games, and I think when we find ourselves in consensus it is an extremely strong play. The system hasn't updated, but you will see my picks for tomorrow, as usual.


--Tom

[sycoogtit]

Thanks senor. I thought I found the holy freaking grail a couple hours ago, but you know how that goes.

I still think I might have another angle here. I'll have to keep screwing around with it.

[therber2]

STL -1.5 +130 (5 units)
STL -170 (5 units)
Reds +105 (10 units)
Yankees -170 (5 units) GM1 chase this if they lose for (10 units)
Twins -135 (10 units)
Twins -1.5 +170 (5 units)
Dodgers -112 (DSI) (10 units)
Boston -105 (3 units) Toronto avoiding a sweep be careful of either side here.
Cubs -120 (2.5 units)
Rays -103 (DSI) (10 units) Getting off the streak.
TAM/LAA u8 -115 (5 units)
Texas -140 (5 units)
SFO Giants -170 (10 units)

GL today guys!!

Adding: NYY -1.5 -110 (10 units) GM2

7-7 +3.1 units

Should have been a better day that this, but I'll take it.

[therber2]

Thanks senor. I thought I found the holy freaking grail a couple hours ago, but you know how that goes.

I still think I might have another angle here. I'll have to keep screwing around with it.

Good to hear let me know what it is about.

[sycoogtit]

Good job dude, you got your big dogs off the books.

[therber2]

Nice Parlay for tomorrow.

STL and Giants +125 (3 units)
at 5Dimes

[therber2]

Dog Day 5/13

Baltimore +125 (4 units)
Tigers +120 (3 units)
Giants -170 (5 units)
Cardinals -270 (3 units)
Cardinals RL -120 (2 units)
Rangers -170 (1 unit)
Mets +120 (7 units)
Indians +181 (5 units)
Nationals +180 (3 units)

[wagster71]

Love the Mets play!!! These teams and picthers matched up on 4/5 and Santana beat Johnson 7-1. Santana had a pitching line of 4H, 2BB, and 5K's He gave up 1 run in 6 IP's. Johnson on the other hand was 5H, 4BB, 3K's and pitched 5, giving up 4 earned runs. GOOD LUCK...I'll be tailing.

[darkenergy]

Play against Greinky at home for 5 units? You got balls of steel brother, best of luck on that play.

[solobass]

Monster 4-1 day yesterday. Also to answer your Twitter question I have tried a few times with studies but the only thing I found was home teams on Sundays had a slight edge. The lock and load days come from a combination of many things unrelated to the day. What was surprising was it was all road teams.

[sycoogtit]

5/13 in progress

royals u8 +101 1u
tigers u8 -122 1u
marlins u7 +108 1u
rangers u8.5 +105 1u
rockies u9.5 +111 1u

[sycoogtit]

Dang those early games snuck up on me. I missed a couple plays, but here's what I threw together at the last minute.

royals u8 +101 1u
tigers u8 -122 1u
marlins u7 +108 1u
rangers u8.5 +105 1u
rockies u9.5 +111 1u

indians +183 2u
cards -150 1u
mets +126 2u
rangers -182 2u
padres +157 .5u
orioles +400 1u (live betting)
nats +180 1.5u

[solobass]

Strike up the band tigers win!

[JerseyShop101]

Therber, I grabbed us a nice 2.45 units for the contest as I actually went against my stats with the Yankees Under 7.5 -115 and San Diego +145 (I liked Latos). We have a good 3.47u lead now, and rank 2nd overall on the leaderboard. I feel cheated with the 4 ties because of the rainouts, but won't complain as long as we move on to the next round.

[therber2]

Strike up the band tigers win!

Verlander beats CC IMO any day. He plays right when it matters. The day when he loses a game avoiding a sweep is a day I eat my hat. Not the case today, but that is usually how he is played. Definitely, Tiger's MVP I think.

What do you think about the Mets Solo? Worth a play?

[therber2]

Therber, I grabbed us a nice 2.45 units for the contest as I actually went against my stats with the Yankees Under 7.5 -115 and San Diego +145 (I liked Latos). We have a good 3.47u lead now, and rank 2nd overall on the leaderboard. I feel cheated with the 4 ties because of the rainouts, but won't complain as long as we move on to the next round.

You took SDG?? Wow. That was a ballsy play Jersey.

I remember thinking to myself, "Tom don't bet against the Padres. They are an excellent team, and probably want this double sweep as much as SFO doesn't want it." I just couldn't see the Giants, another great team taking 2 full sweeps with a fairly decent pitcher in Sanchez. I thought that would trump the fact that the Pads have an excellent bullpen...this is what happens when you stray from your roots too much. I originally stated that bullpen whip and run production are my two biggest deciding factors, and disreguarded SFO's avg. bats against SDG's hot bullpen....lesson learned again...

[therber2]

Monster 4-1 day yesterday. Also to answer your Twitter question I have tried a few times with studies but the only thing I found was home teams on Sundays had a slight edge. The lock and load days come from a combination of many things unrelated to the day. What was surprising was it was all road teams.

Unreal Solo!
Thanks for answering that question Solo that helps me out a bit. I think I told you once that, as far as days of the week the only trend I've noticed happens on Fridays. I look for a team on a lose streak and away vs. a happy win streak team at home. If the away team is fundamentally better, I win goes over 60% of the time to the team that would like the win. Is there logic in this? Maybe? It is Friday. You had a good week. Time to have a fun night? I dunno MLB players are people too.

[therber2]

Play against Greinky at home for 5 units? You got balls of steel brother, best of luck on that play.

Greinky is 0-4 has an season ERA of 2.51 and WHIP of 1.050! His 3 day stats are ERA: 1.64 and WHIP: .909!!!!

Poor guy. I smell a trade for his future...you are right, KC was the play here. The experimental system told me that that CLE had a >99% chance of winning here. The system DOES NOT take into acount situations, streaks, pitching or bullpen; however it hits over 60%

Obviously some tweaks are in order. Thank you for bringing this to my attention; sometimes I look so deep at number I lose sight of what is going on.

[therber2]

Baltimore +125 (4 units)
Tigers +120 (3 units)
Giants -170 (5 units)
Cardinals -270 (3 units)
Cardinals RL -120 (2 units)
Rangers -170 (1 unit)
Mets +120 (7 units) Good thing this was a strike. Analyzed that pitchers a bit.
Indians +181 (5 units)
Nationals +180 (3 units)

Striking this play; don't like it no more.

[therber2]

Love the Mets play!!! These teams and picthers matched up on 4/5 and Santana beat Johnson 7-1. Santana had a pitching line of 4H, 2BB, and 5K's He gave up 1 run in 6 IP's. Johnson on the other hand was 5H, 4BB, 3K's and pitched 5, giving up 4 earned runs. GOOD LUCK...I'll be tailing.

Hmm. Well I hope it wins for you; I hear what you are saying, but I think we'll find some better plays later. This is still a good play. Just scratching. Sorry if you "tailed." Sounds like you like the pick though so I am happy. GL bro. Good stats keep em coming.

Side note: what in the world happened to the Cards today? a$$holes.

[JerseyShop101]

F A C T S M AN is all over Colorado!

OK HERE ARE THE LINES

play #1 ENTIRE GAME

COL ROCKIES , Pitcher: J CHACIN -R -1½+105 -200
option -200 or -1.5 +105....................your choice i layed the wood

play #2 1908 1H COL ROCKIES , Pitcher: J CHACIN -R -½-130
play #3 1H COL ROCKIES -190

play #4 5908 COL SC 1ST -120
play #5 ROCKIES TEAM TOTAL OVER 5 RUNS
play #6 NATIONALS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4 RUNS

I have to agree with him, but I hate the large chalk.

[therber2]

Thanks Jersey. I just finished a late meeting and got this. So the game is started. Does Joe mind you sharing this information with me? I really appreciate it, and trust your judgment with him.

Today we have an 85.10% lean on the Nationals. Why is Joe taking Colorado big? I see they have a hot bullpen. Is there something he knows about Mr. Chacin?



Question to all. What are your best sources of info for starting pitchers? I know sort of vague but does anyone have a good system worked out. Usually I just check SPs like I did in the post a few up for the fella name Grienke :-)

[therber2]

Baltimore +125 (4 units)
Tigers +120 (3 units)
Giants -170 (5 units)
Cardinals -270 (3 units)
Cardinals RL -120 (2 units)
Rangers -170 (1 unit)
Mets +120 (7 units)
Indians +181 (5 units)
Nationals +180 (3 units)

4-4 -5.6 units

[therber2]

F A C T S M AN is all over Colorado!

OK HERE ARE THE LINES

play #1 ENTIRE GAME

COL ROCKIES , Pitcher: J CHACIN -R -1½+105 -200
option -200 or -1.5 +105....................your choice i layed the wood

play #2 1908 1H COL ROCKIES , Pitcher: J CHACIN -R -½-130
play #3 1H COL ROCKIES -190

play #4 5908 COL SC 1ST -120
play #5 ROCKIES TEAM TOTAL OVER 5 RUNS
play #6 NATIONALS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4 RUNS

I have to agree with him, but I hate the large chalk.

I could see taking Colorado for tomorrow just not sure if it is worth it yet to lay the chalk. Rockies again with the hot bullpen, Jimenez in 6-1 against Hernandez 4-1 (instant lean toward low total; however the numbers are telling me over (both teams are slugging in the upper bracket, Mets a little bit on top here.)...hmm maybe better to lay off. Lean toward Colorado if they lose tonight and it is close.