The Big Card

[sycoogtit]

5/15 card in progress...

Arizona D-Backs (R. Lopez) at Atlanta Braves (T. Hanson) ML 8u
Philadelphia Phillies (J. Blanton) at Milwaukee Brewers (C. Narveson) ML 6.5u
G1 Washington Nationals (L. Hernandez) at G1 Colorado Rockies (U. Jimenez) under 6u
Washington Nationals (L. Atilano) at Colorado Rockies (J. Hammel) ML 5u
St Louis Cardinals (A. Wainwright) at Cincinnati Reds (M. Leake) under 4.5u
Minnesota Twins (F. Liriano) at New York Yankees (A. Pettitte) ML 4.5u

Los Angeles Dodgers (C. Kershaw) at San Diego Padres (K. Correia) ML 4u
Chicago White Sox (J. Peavy) at Kansas City Royals (L. Hochevar) ML 3.5u

Los Angeles Dodgers (C. Kershaw) at San Diego Padres (K. Correia) under 3u
New York Mets (J. Maine) at Florida Marlins (N. Robertson) ML 3u
Cleveland Indians (M. Talbot) at Baltimore Orioles (B. Matusz)under 2.5u
Houston Astros (R. Oswalt) at San Francisco Giants (T. Lincecum) ML 2.5u
Houston Astros (R. Oswalt) at San Francisco Giants (T. Lincecum) under 2.5u
Minnesota Twins (F. Liriano) at New York Yankees (A. Pettitte) under 2u
Boston Red Sox (J. Lester) at Detroit Tigers (D. Willis) under 2u
Seattle Mariners (J. Vargas) at Tampa Bay Rays (J. Shields) under 2u
Texas Rangers (S. Feldman) at Toronto Blue Jays (R. Romero) ML 2u
Pittsburgh Pirates (P. Maholm) at Chicago Cubs(R. Dempster) under 2u
Arizona D-Backs (R. Lopez) at Atlanta Braves (T. Hanson) under 1u
Boston Red Sox (J. Lester) at Detroit Tigers (D. Willis) ML 1u
Chicago White Sox (J. Peavy) at Kansas City Royals (L. Hochevar) under 1u
Cleveland Indians (M. Talbot) at Baltimore Orioles (B. Matusz) ML 1u
G1 Washington Nationals (L. Hernandez) at G1 Colorado Rockies (U. Jimenez) ML 1u
New York Mets (J. Maine) at Florida Marlins (N. Robertson) under 1u
Oakland Athletics (J. Duchscherer) at LAA Angels (E. Santana) under 1u
Philadelphia Phillies (J. Blanton) at Milwaukee Brewers (C. Narveson) ML over 1u
Pittsburgh Pirates (P. Maholm) at Chicago Cubs(R. Dempster) ML 1u
Seattle Mariners (J. Vargas) at Tampa Bay Rays (J. Shields) ML 1u
Texas Rangers (S. Feldman) at Toronto Blue Jays (R. Romero) over .5u
Washington Nationals (L. Atilano) at Colorado Rockies (J. Hammel) under .5u
Oakland Athletics (J. Duchscherer) at LAA Angels (E. Santana) ML .5u

[sycoogtit]

I'm not going to be able to finish this. What's listed are my weights. Play them how you see fit. I'm only playing the top 6-10.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Hi, guys -

Sycoog - just a few quick questions regarding your picks in post 491 -

First the Dumb question - In post 491 you have your picks in BOLD, correct ?

Now the other (dumb) question - You have Washington in bold in the first game with Under 6u -

Is that 6 units on the Under in game 1 or is it ALSO a pick on Washington ?

I'm just trying to get a handle on reading these posts here -

Mucho Thanks -

[cgars1]

Hey therber been gone for awhile but I'm back and reloaded...how's the early spring treating you?

SAT CUBS-SF Parlay for me today

[therber2]

I just so happen to be leaning that way, smart alec.

He's just kidding.

[therber2]

Hey therber been gone for awhile but I'm back and reloaded...how's the early spring treating you?

SAT CUBS-SF Parlay for me today

Heyyy cgars1! Nice to see you again.

I dig that parlay brutha. Thanks for posting that. In my scrambled notes I have Cubs down as a potential for today and tomorrow.

Good to have ya hear. Feel free to post plays whenever you want n such. I think we've got a new winner here; **sycoogtit**

[therber2]

5/15 card in progress...

Arizona D-Backs (R. Lopez) at Atlanta Braves (T. Hanson) ML 8u
Philadelphia Phillies (J. Blanton) at Milwaukee Brewers (C. Narveson) ML 6.5u
G1 Washington Nationals (L. Hernandez) at G1 Colorado Rockies (U. Jimenez) under 6u
Washington Nationals (L. Atilano) at Colorado Rockies (J. Hammel) ML 5u
St Louis Cardinals (A. Wainwright) at Cincinnati Reds (M. Leake) under 4.5u
Minnesota Twins (F. Liriano) at New York Yankees (A. Pettitte) ML 4.5u

Los Angeles Dodgers (C. Kershaw) at San Diego Padres (K. Correia) ML 4u
Chicago White Sox (J. Peavy) at Kansas City Royals (L. Hochevar) ML 3.5u

Los Angeles Dodgers (C. Kershaw) at San Diego Padres (K. Correia) under 3u
New York Mets (J. Maine) at Florida Marlins (N. Robertson) ML 3u
Cleveland Indians (M. Talbot) at Baltimore Orioles (B. Matusz)under 2.5u
Houston Astros (R. Oswalt) at San Francisco Giants (T. Lincecum) ML 2.5u
Houston Astros (R. Oswalt) at San Francisco Giants (T. Lincecum) under 2.5u
Minnesota Twins (F. Liriano) at New York Yankees (A. Pettitte) under 2u
Boston Red Sox (J. Lester) at Detroit Tigers (D. Willis) under 2u
Seattle Mariners (J. Vargas) at Tampa Bay Rays (J. Shields) under 2u
Texas Rangers (S. Feldman) at Toronto Blue Jays (R. Romero) ML 2u
Pittsburgh Pirates (P. Maholm) at Chicago Cubs(R. Dempster) under 2u
Arizona D-Backs (R. Lopez) at Atlanta Braves (T. Hanson) under 1u
Boston Red Sox (J. Lester) at Detroit Tigers (D. Willis) ML 1u
Chicago White Sox (J. Peavy) at Kansas City Royals (L. Hochevar) under 1u
Cleveland Indians (M. Talbot) at Baltimore Orioles (B. Matusz) ML 1u
G1 Washington Nationals (L. Hernandez) at G1 Colorado Rockies (U. Jimenez) ML 1u
New York Mets (J. Maine) at Florida Marlins (N. Robertson) under 1u
Oakland Athletics (J. Duchscherer) at LAA Angels (E. Santana) under 1u
Philadelphia Phillies (J. Blanton) at Milwaukee Brewers (C. Narveson) ML over 1u
Pittsburgh Pirates (P. Maholm) at Chicago Cubs(R. Dempster) ML 1u
Seattle Mariners (J. Vargas) at Tampa Bay Rays (J. Shields) ML 1u
Texas Rangers (S. Feldman) at Toronto Blue Jays (R. Romero) over .5u
Washington Nationals (L. Atilano) at Colorado Rockies (J. Hammel) under .5u
Oakland Athletics (J. Duchscherer) at LAA Angels (E. Santana) ML .5u

I'm likin' it dude. The diameter of your testicles must be quite enormous. I think this card will be a winner!

[sycoogtit]

Okay sorry to bail there, had some stuff to do. Here's the final card.

5/15 final card

parlay nats g2 ml/royals ml 3u
braves ml 1.25u
padres ml 1.25u
reds u7.5 1.25u
yanks ml .625u
phillies ml .625u
rockies u8.5 .625u

[sycoogtit]

I'm likin' it dude. The diameter of your testicles must be quite enormous. I think this card will be a winner!

Ha! Why yes, they are huge.

As you can see my final card is actually much smaller. I'll probably end up going + on my prelim and - on my final. I need to work on how to weight these games.

[sycoogtit]

Sycoog - just a few quick questions regarding your picks in post 491 -

First the Dumb question - In post 491 you have your picks in BOLD, correct ?

Yes, the ML picks are bold.

Now the other (dumb) question - You have Washington in bold in the first game with Under 6u -

Is that 6 units on the Under in game 1 or is it ALSO a pick on Washington ?

Not a dumb question, but a bad job on my part. I was in a hurry and that was a copy-paste screw up. The under on the game is weighted as 6, but you can see below that the ML is weighted as only 1. Sorry bud, hope I didn't screw you.

Either way I'm not feeling very positive about today...

[sycoogtit]

I think we've got a new winner here; **sycoogtit**

sycoogtit has no clue what he's doing, by the way. You can see that each day my strategy changes. Tail at your own risk. I'm not feeling very good about today.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoog -

Thats what I thought - I just wanted to be sure what I was looking at.

Thanx for the response.

[therber2]

sycoogtit has no clue what he's doing, by the way. You can see that each day my strategy changes. Tail at your own risk. I'm not feeling very good about today.

If you are running a test, try to run it at least a week; however, changing strategies is not a bad thing 100% of the time as long as you aren't betting whims. I love the fact that you are trying new things here.

Side note: I predict that your big card will yield more return that the final...interested in seeing how that plays out.

[sycoogtit]

Side note: I predict that your big card will yield more return that the final...interested in seeing how that plays out.

I think so too. Today's a small day, and I threw in the parlay just to make sure I lose money.

I just don't want to be playing a card that huge. I could turn each unit into a half-unit or a tenth of a unit or something. Maybe I'll do that. I don't know.

This is why my strategy keeps changing. I have no clue how to best play my picks. I'm also quite poor at weighting them, so maybe just play tenth or half units across the board when the card is that big.

[sycoogtit]

5/15 final card

parlay nats g2 ml/royals ml 3u
braves ml 1.25u
padres ml 1.25u
reds u7.5 1.25u
yanks ml .625u
phillies ml .625u
rockies u8.5 .625u

Awesome.

4-3 -3.4u

since 5/8
81-57 +23.9 units

[therber2]

Oh man...cashed the Tigers AND a parlay today. Hot damn. Don't think the experiment here worked out though. I think I might start doing a parlay a day system here. Got it all worked out. Rule number 1: don't bet the Cubs (even though I love them).

[TodaysAction]

FYI, going on the Cubs all season would have a negative return to date (inclusive). Your money, do as you see fit.

[mebaran]

Oh man...cashed the Tigers AND a parlay today. Hot damn. Don't think the experiment here worked out though. I think I might start doing a parlay a day system here. Got it all worked out. Rule number 1: don't bet the Cubs (even though I love them).

I had a horrible feeling during spring training that the Cubs would be a below .500 team this year...THIS IS MY NIGHTMAREEEE!

Oh well...LeBron's comin to Chicago, so I'm cool.

[mebaran]

FYI, going on the Cubs all season would have a negative return to date (inclusive). Your money, do as you see fit.

Thanks, TA. Just more facts to drown our sorrows in...

By the way, Therber, how's the experiment working? I haven't been to your thread in a few days. I read back a few days and saw that you've made plenty of changes.

Hope all goes well in the future

[therber2]

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 EV (5 units)
OAK/LAA u8.5 -110 (5 units)
PHI/MIL o9.5 -115 (4 units)
CLE/BAL o8.5 -110 (4 units)
Phillies -104 (4 units)
Braves -200 (4 units)
SDG Pads +109 (3 units)
LOS/SDG o7 +105 (3 units)
WAS/COL u10.5 EV (3 units)
Nationals +144 (3 units) GM1
NYY/MIN u9 -105 (3 units)
Tigers +160 (2 units)
Reds +130 (2 units)
Orioles -140 (2 units)
Marlins -112 (2 units)
SFO/HOU o6 -105 (2 units)
ARI/ATL o8.5 EV (2 units)
Twins +128 (1 unit)
TEX/TOR o9 -105 (1 unit)
SFO -1.5 +105 (1 unit)
Cubs -220 (1 unit)

Parlays: Rays +1.5, Cubs +2.5, Phillies +2.5, SFO +1.5
+125 (3 units)
Parlay: Rays, Cubs, Phillies, SFO
+503 (3 units)

GL today!

10-13 -2.75

[TodaysAction]

Thanks, TA. Just more facts to drown our sorrows in...

By the way, Therber, how's the experiment working? I haven't been to your thread in a few days. I read back a few days and saw that you've made plenty of changes.

Hope all goes well in the future

Just trying to help those that think backing them blindly all season would be a 'good thing' - not to mention, I have that sort of stuff close by and is based upon one unit risked/to win for all teams.

[mebaran]

Just trying to help those that think backing them blindly all season would be a 'good thing' - not to mention, I have that sort of stuff close by and is based upon one unit risked/to win for all teams.

I have around -7.0% ROI if betting on them SU. That sound about right? Thanks for pointing it out, as I've been trying to tell everyone that even though I'm a big Cubs fan, I've been laying off them since after spring training.

[therber2]

FYI, going on the Cubs all season would have a negative return to date (inclusive). Your money, do as you see fit.

Lol yeah man. What I'm trying to say here, and I said before back last season when I posted all the time in your thread was: I never bet for the Cubs (who in their right mind would ), but I don't like to bet against them. I know how the saying goes. Don't let emotions get in the way. heh.

Again though...did you read what I wrote? I said rule number 1 is to not bet the Cubs! They are far too erratic. Plus you said before: you need a sport that you can watch casually. I'll enjoy MLB by watching the Cubs lose all season

TA, keep an eye on my main man sycoogtit here. He is going to be topping the charts sooner or later. If you want to put him in that roster thingy you do it would be worth it. Real brain that guy.

[TodaysAction]

I have around -7.0% ROI if betting on them SU. That sound about right? Thanks for pointing it out, as I've been trying to tell everyone that even though I'm a big Cubs fan, I've been laying off them since after spring training.

"Close enough" for government work as the saying goes. Like any 'stat', there are ways to use it to one's advantage.

[therber2]

I had a horrible feeling during spring training that the Cubs would be a below .500 team this year...THIS IS MY NIGHTMAREEEE!

Oh well...LeBron's comin to Chicago, so I'm cool.

Sorry, I must be out of touch with reality. LeBron is wha what??

[TodaysAction]

Lol yeah man. What I'm trying to say here, and I said before back last season when I posted all the time in your thread was: I never bet for the Cubs (who in their right mind would ), but I don't like to bet against them. I know how the saying goes. Don't let emotions get in the way. heh.

Again though...did you read what I wrote? I said rule number 1 is to not bet the Cubs! They are far too erratic. Plus you said before: you need a sport that you can watch casually. I'll enjoy MLB by watching the Cubs lose all season

TA, keep an eye on my main man sycoogtit here. He is going to be topping the charts sooner or later. If you want to put him in that roster thingy you do it would be worth it. Real brain that guy.

Sir Tom,

I'm not trying to stir up or cause problems, all I was doing was passing something along to those who read your thread because I know some are CHI based/fans of/etc. Excuse me for, once again, trying to help others out. Good luck the rest of this season.

[mebaran]

Sorry, I must be out of touch with reality. LeBron is wha what??

He's not a Bull. There has been a ton of talk about what teams he could go to, so I've been daydreaming about him coming to Chicago. It's what happens to me when our baseball teams are hurting.



Tell me that doesn't get your lips smacking...

[therber2]

Thanks, TA. Just more facts to drown our sorrows in...

By the way, Therber, how's the experiment working? I haven't been to your thread in a few days. I read back a few days and saw that you've made plenty of changes.

Hope all goes well in the future

Mebaran, was thinking about you today while I was running the experiment brutha. Haven't forgotten you; glad to see you around. I'm trying to find a nice angle on totals, today didn't work out, but one day doesn't tell. Give it a little more time. May not have anything tomorrow. Don't know yet. Busy day with a few things.

The total system will be working with a very similar formula as what I use to pick sides. I guess I should bump the disclaimer to all once more to play at your own risk as I am experimenting with new methods frequently. As always any of your input is always welcome!

[therber2]

Just trying to help those that think backing them blindly all season would be a 'good thing' - not to mention, I have that sort of stuff close by and is based upon one unit risked/to win for all teams.

He's right; Cubs are erratic and likely to remain so. In a lock situation cut your bet size in half at least if it is the Cubs or really any team with that much regular positional displacement.

[therber2]

Sir Tom,

I'm not trying to stir up or cause problems, all I was doing was passing something along to those who read your thread because I know some are CHI based/fans of/etc. Excuse me for, once again, trying to help others out. Good luck the rest of this season.

Ah, gotcha. Sorry bout that then

Thinkin I'm going to place a 40 units futures bet on the Cubs. 2010 is a good round number for it to happen

Told Cougar Bait this: chase Cubs to win the World Series for the rest of your life, and one day...just one day you might be filthy rich.

[therber2]

He's not a Bull. There has been a ton of talk about what teams he could go to, so I've been daydreaming about him coming to Chicago. It's what happens to me when our baseball teams are hurting.



Tell me that doesn't get your lips smacking...

Damn you mebaran. Got me all excited. I heard he might do New Jersey

I can't see him in Chicago playin with Rose; how would that work? I don't know NBA...

[mebaran]

Damn you mebaran. Got me all excited. I heard he might do New Jersey

I can't see him in Chicago playin with Rose; how would that work? I don't know NBA...

Yeah, obviously having those two on the court at the same time would make the world explode. Not a big NBA fan either in terms of knowing the nuances, but interested in seeing what happens here. Knicks, Nets, Cavs, Bulls? Probably even more...oh well, I digress.

Will drop in tomorrow some time early. Good hunting, sir.

[therber2]

Yeah, obviously having those two on the court at the same time would make the world explode. Not a big NBA fan either in terms of knowing the nuances, but interested in seeing what happens here. Knicks, Nets, Cavs, Bulls? Probably even more...oh well, I digress.

Will drop in tomorrow some time early. Good hunting, sir.

Yes, Rose and Joakim Noah are the dream fvckin team sir. If they could work Lebron in somehow; yes I think there would be spontaneous nuclear explosions around the globe. Keep Heinrich poppin those threes at ease, and Luol on the bench, and we're good to go bro.

Points from me to whoever comes up with the best 4 man NBA squad using existing players. This is an exciting pt. in NBA fellas. Lots of good trades to go down.

Wanna hear it.

Mebaran lookin forward to your picks. TA, you can post here too if you want; whatever it may be. Got no problem with you man; sick of acting like a couple of school girls with each other. Let's make $$

[JerseyShop101]

Thereber2,

Not sure if you noticed yesterday, but we were up by 1.98 units with 2 plays left (opponent already completed all his 14 plays). The only way we could lose was by losing the final 2 one unit plays, so yesterday I played TB ml and Seattle +1.5 runs to guarantee the win no matter what the final score was. TB won 4-3, and we won both bets anyway. We continue on and are ranked 1st in the leaderboard.

This now has me wondering, although its most likely a losing proposition.

Do you or anyone else have the figures for one run games? Especially where the game total is 7 or less.

I've never done this, but in some instances I see the fav ml -130 and the dog +1.5 -140 (using different books). If one were to play both for a 100 it would be risking $40 (the most you could lose in this example) to win $200, 5-1 odds in hopes of the fav to win by 1.

I was wondering if at 5-1 odds could it still be worth the risk?

More stats to check out, lol.

Good luck today!

[cgars1]

man these cubs are killing me...well i gotta get on em again and parlay em with the phillies...need tb and atlanta today for a 4 team series parlay...sf and nyy are already there...az might give the braves a run today though