The Big Card

[therber2]

Oop I didn't see Oak +1,
How do you wager +1?

Well it is probably still an alright bet...not heavy IMO. I am taking Oak +1 for value.

Use this calculator.

[therber2]

Signing out here guys. Take care and GL today.

[oda11]

BOL today therber and DE and co.

[darkenergy]

'sup Oda, long time buddy. I thought you moved to Hawaii already
GL today buddy

[oda11]

'sup Oda, long time buddy. I thought you moved to Hawaii already GL today buddy

Sh*t, I am really thinking about it LOL.

[therber2]

BOL today therber and DE and co.

Hey there oda. Nice to see you as always. I'm stepping back in here to.....

[therber2]

**FINAL** (bold mean bets worth taking...maybe I'd take em )

Yankees EV (20 units)
NYY/BOS o9 +107 (10 units)
Toronto -104 (12 units)
Brewers +136 (6.5 units)
CUB/CIN o8 -110 (6 units)
SD/HOU u7.5 -115 (5 units)
Rockies +120 (12 units) ***
PIT +1 +135 (4 units)
PIT/STL u7.5 -105 (4 units)
SDG Padres +110 (3 units)
Phillies -1.5 +105 (3 units)
OAK +1 +108 (3 units)
Nationals EV (3 units)
Orioles +130 (2 units)
BAL/MIN o8.5 -120 (2 units)
DET/CLE u8.5 EV (2 units)
Mariners +115 (2 units)
KC +157 (1 unit)MIL/ARI u10.5 +105 (1 unit)
LAA/SEA u7.5 +101 (1 unit)
Cleveland -105 (1 unit)
TOR/CHW u8 +111 (1 units)
Giants -1.5 -110 (1 units)
SFO/NYM u7.5 -120 (1 units)COL/LOS u7 +111 (1 unit)
PHI/ATL o9 -115 (.5 units)
Cubs -110 (.5 unit)

Add 8 units to Colorado Rockies.

[JerseyShop101]

Oop I didn't see Oak +1,
How do you wager +1?

Not sure if this is what he meant.

Here is how you make your own -1 line, or +1 line.

This is mainly used for betting favorites to make your own -1 line (mainly to reduce the juice on larger chalk favorites). Whatever you bet on the moneyline, whatever the winnings are bet it on the runline.

Example: Say you liked Texas today at -165, -1.5 +120 runline

Bet 165 to win 100 and bet 100 to win 120 on Texas -1.5
You now have Texas -1
If they win by 2 or more you win $220, if they win by 1 you push, if they lose you lose $265
So your risking $265 to win $220, which comes out to be a line of -120


To do the +1, its just the opposite. Again bettors don't normally do this as there are no ties in baseball, so the +1 doesn't really help here, but anyway:

Example: If you liked Kansas City today, line was +155, +1.5 -140 runline

Bet $140 to win $100 on the RL, then bet $100 on KC ml to win $155.
You now have KC +1

IF KC wins the game you win $255, if they lose by 1 you push, if they lose by 2 or more, you lose $240.
So your risking $240 to win $255 which is a line of +106.

You can do a search here in the forum, Ganch did a spreadsheet where you can just punch in the numbers, to get the figures, you can also put in how much you want to win, or what you want to risk, and it wil automatically give you the figures.

[JerseyShop101]

Well it is probably still an alright bet...not heavy IMO. I am taking Oak +1 for value.

Use this calculator.

I didn't see you post this, lol.

[therber2]

Yankees EV (20 units)
NYY/BOS o9 +107 (10 units)
Toronto -104 (12 units)
Brewers +136 (6.5 units)
CUB/CIN o8 -110 (6 units) PUSH
SD/HOU u7.5 -115 (5 units)
Rockies +120 (12 units) ***
PIT +1 +135 (4 units)
PIT/STL u7.5 -105 (4 units)
SDG Padres +110 (3 units)
Phillies -1.5 +105 (3 units)
OAK +1 +108 (3 units)
Nationals EV (3 units)
Orioles +130 (2 units)
BAL/MIN o8.5 -120 (2 units)
DET/CLE u8.5 EV (2 units)
Mariners +115 (2 units)
KC +157 (1 unit)
MIL/ARI u10.5 +105 (1 unit)
LAA/SEA u7.5 +101 (1 unit)
Cleveland -105 (1 unit)
TOR/CHW u8 +111 (1 units)
Giants -1.5 -110 (1 units)
SFO/NYM u7.5 -120 (1 units)
COL/LOS u7 +111 (1 unit)
PHI/ATL o9 -115 (.5 units)
Cubs -110 (.5 unit)

10-13 -17.48

[sycoogtit]

We're on different sides of a lot of plays today. I have to admit I'm not feeling very good about today's card.

Yuck. I need to figure out why I didn't feel good about today so I don't do this again.

WAS ML -113
WAS/FLA o9 -103
TX ML -155
LAA -103
LAA/SEA u7.5 +101
NYM ML +185
NYM/SFG o7 -123
TOR ML -104
TOR/CHW o8 -122
TB ML -134
SD ML +114
SD/HOU u7.5 -112
PIT ML +178
PIT/STL u7.5 -125
DET ML +102
NYY ML +105
NYY/BOS o9 -109
MIL ML +141
PHI/ATL u9.5 -119
CUB/CIN o8 -110 push

Some of these MLs scare me because they will result in a sweep. We'll see how it goes...

Sides: 4-7 -2.96
Totals: 5-3 +1.71
Overall: 9-10 -1.25
--------

since 5/8

Sides: 15-15 +0.41u
Totals: 16-8 +8.68u
Overall: 31-23 +9.09 units

[sycoogtit]

10-13 -17.48

Overall: 9-11 -1.25

I wonder if the ending series today had something to do with this garbage. I'm going to need to take a closer look at a few things.

[therber2]

Yeah. I need to sleep this one off. heh. Shouldn't have scratched those plays and increased Colorado. Maybe doing less is more...I'll try to get some early leans for tomorrow, and then sleep on it.

[therber2]

I wonder if the ending series today had something to do with this garbage. I'm going to need to take a closer look at a few things.

I'm not sure. Maybe we will find that this system works best in game 1 and 2 of series. Let me know if you find anything worth nothing.

[sycoogtit]

5/10 leans

Reds @ Pirates under (mid)
Nats @ Mets
Marlins @ Cubs
Braves @ Brewers
Phillies @ Rockies
Dodgers @ DBacks
Yankees @ Tigers under (small)
Blue Jays @ Red Sox under (small)
Rays @ Angels under (mid)

[therber2]

Big Card May 10

**FINAL**

TAM/LAA under9 -120 (7.5 units)
Yankees -125 (6.5 units)
Tampa Bay -138 (6 units)
Colorado -108 (4 units)
Brewers +120 (3 units)
NYM/WAS under8.5 (3 units)
Blue Jays +1 +120 (3 units)
Cincinnati -115 (3 units)
LOS/ARI under10.5 -115 (2 units)
Cubs -150 (1 unit)
ATL/MIL under8.5 -105 (1 unit)
CIN/PIT u8.5 -115 (1 unit)
CUB/FLA over9 +105 (.5 units)
DET/NYY under10 EV (.5 units)
ARI +105 (.5 units)
NYM over WASH (0 unit)

[JerseyShop101]

We get'em on Monday!

Thanks for the pts DarkEnergy!

[sycoogtit]

5/10 card

Rays ML -135 4u
Phillies ML +102 4u
Marlins ML +141 3u
Yankees ML -126 3u
Reds/Pirates u8.5 -108 2u
Brewers ML +109 2u
Nats/Mets o8.5 -103 1u
Marlins/Cubs o9 +107 1u
Dodgers/Dbacks u10.5 -113 1u
Yankees/Tigers o10 -115 1u
BJ's/Red Sox o5.5 +105 1u
Rays/Angels u8.5 +106 1u
Nats ML +144 1u
Dodgers ML -109 1u

[therber2]

Nice! You got some units going. I see we have Rays and Yankees as top two consensus plays. GL today sycoogtit.

[sycoogtit]

I did a lot more research into these plays, so hopefully that pays off. I thought we'd be on the same page with most of this, but it looks like we're still seeing things quite differently. I'm big on the Phils and you're big on the Rockies -- stuff like that worries me...

Well, let's both have a good day and make some dollars.

[therber2]

I did a lot more research into these plays, so hopefully that pays off. I thought we'd be on the same page with most of this, but it looks like we're still seeing things quite differently. I'm big on the Phils and you're big on the Rockies -- stuff like that worries me...

Well, let's both have a good day and make some dollars.

Whereever we deviate from the system or each other I think we should discuss the game afterwards. Do you have an AIM or google chat? I have a reason for taking the Rockies; I am not following my old method so much to the T. Time will tell my friend. I have an email request.

[sycoogtit]

5/10 card

Rays ML -135 4u
Phillies ML +102 4u
Marlins ML +141 3u
Yankees ML -126 3u (Tigers Willis didn't start, so this was actually canceled -- but I'll still count it)
Reds/Pirates u8.5 -108 2u
Brewers ML +109 2u
Nats/Mets o8.5 -103 1u
Marlins/Cubs o9 +107 1u
Dodgers/Dbacks u10.5 -113 1u
Yankees/Tigers o10 -115 1u (Tigers Willis didn't start, so this was actually canceled -- but I'll still count it)
BJ's/Red Sox o5.5 +105 1u
Rays/Angels u8.5 +106 1u
Nats ML +144 1u
Dodgers ML -109 1u

Sides: 4-3 -0.43
Totals: 3-4 -0.13
Overall: 7-7 -0.56
--------

since 5/8

Sides: 19-18 -0.02u
Totals: 17-12 +8.55u
Overall: 38-30 +8.53 units

[KENDRY]

poo balls

[sycoogtit]

poo balls

Okay...

This has been said a million times in here, but I hope you're not blindly tailing these plays (especially mine). These are just used to weight each game. If you're going to use these plays, only use them as weights in your own capping or in tailing others. This is all experimental and could blow up at any time.

This is really an idea generation thread. If you want to bounce ideas off of us or ask questions, please do! We will all learn and hopefully make some caish.

[sycoogtit]

5/11 card

huge card today...

Phillies Halladay @ Rockies Cook ML -178 7u
Rays Niemann @ Angels Kazmir ML -111 7u
Marlins (Nolasco ) @ Cubs (Wells ) ML -101 6u
Nats (Olsen ) @ Mets (Niese ) ML +127 5u
Mariners (Lee) @ Orioles (hernandez) under 7.5 -115 4u
A's Cahill @ Rangers Lewis under 9 +102 3.5u
Astros Myers @ Cards Penny under 7.5 -105 3.5u
Reds (Cueto) @ Pirates (morton) ML -116 3.5u
Braves Hudson @ Brewers Bush ML -116 3.5u
Mariners (Lee) @ Orioles (hernandez) ML -152 3.5u
White Sox Garcia @ Twins Slowey ML -168 3.5u
Astros Myers @ Cards Penny ML -240 3.5u
Blue Jays (Eveland ) @ Red Sox (Matsuzaka ) over 10.5 -108 3u
Indians Westbrook @ Royals Bannister ML +100 2u
Yanks (vazquez) @ Tigers (porcello) over 10 -113 2u
Braves Hudson @ Brewers Bush under 8.5 +100 1.5u
Indians Westbrook @ Royals Bannister over 9 -105 1.5u
Dodgers Ely @ Dbacks Haren under 9 -108 1.5u
Padres Leblanc @ Giants Zito under 7.5 -126 1.5u
Yanks (vazquez) @ Tigers (porcello) ML -130 1u
Blue Jays (Eveland ) @ Red Sox (Matsuzaka ) ML -160 1u
Phillies Halladay @ Rockies Cook under 8.5 -104 1u
Reds (Cueto) @ Pirates (morton) under 8.5 -110 1u
Nats (Olsen ) @ Mets (Niese )under 8 -102 .5u
Marlins (Nolasco ) @ Cubs (Wells ) under 8.5 -109 .5u
White Sox Garcia @ Twins Slowey under 9 -111 .5u
Dodgers Ely @ Dbacks Haren ML +150 .5u
Rays Niemann @ Angels Kazmir over 8.5 -116 .5u
Padres Leblanc @ Giants Zito ML +140 .5u

[therber2]

**FINAL**

TAM/LAA under9 -120 (7.5 units) PUSH
Yankees -125 (6.5 units)
Tampa Bay -138 (6 units)
Colorado -108 (4 units)
Brewers +120 (3 units)
NYM/WAS under8.5 (3 units)
Blue Jays +1 +120 (3 units) PUSH
Cincinnati -115 (3 units)
LOS/ARI under10.5 -115 (2 units)
Cubs -150 (1 unit)
ATL/MIL under8.5 -105 (1 unit)
CIN/PIT u8.5 -115 (1 unit)
CUB/FLA over9 +105 (.5 units)
DET/NYY under10 EV (.5 units)
ARI +105 (.5 units)
NYM over WASH (0 unit)

5-8-2 -14.95 units

ugly streak here

[sycoogtit]

Sorry yesterday wasn't good for you therber. Let's get back on the winning side today.

[therber2]

Big Card 5/11

*Edit ::FINAL:: sorry about that..

NYY/DET over10 -110 (8 units)
Boston -152 (7 units)
STL -1.5 -110 (6 units)
STL-240 (6 units)
TAM ML -127(12 units)
TAM -1.5 +125 (5 units)
Dodgers +160 (5 units)
BOS/TOR over10 -121 (3 units)
Giants -160 (5 units)
Minnesota Twins -165 (2 units)
OAK/TEX o9 -110 (DSI) (3 units)
BAL/SEA u8 -105 (2 units)
Phillies -180 (5 units)
Baltimore O's +1.5 (3 units)
Twins -1.5 +120 (1.5 units)
NYY Yankees -1.5 +115 (1 unit)
SDG/SFO o7 -120 (.5 units)
Brewers +110 (.5 units)
Mets -139 (.5 units)

[therber2]

poo balls

.
My thoughts exactly. We're still on house money so that is good

[Edluva33]

Just jumped onto this thread.....WOW! Huge cards! Best of Luck!

[therber2]

Just jumped onto this thread.....WOW! Huge cards! Best of Luck!

Hence the name
How goes it fella?

[solobass]

Best of luck today hope we do not get any rainouts or pitching changes!

[therber2]

Best of luck today hope we do not get any rainouts or pitching changes!

I know grr! Good to see you around Solo. Glad to see we are on a few here and there. I need to bounce back today.

EDIT: "THE GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED DUE TO RAIN." (NYY/DET)

[therber2]

Sycoogtit, we need to account for sweeps and streaks in some way. Read the folks here keeping track of the team swept playing sweeper again: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ystem-p13.html

Also I am seeing a few cases where a favorite (by our system) vs. a team facing an immanent sweep has a low total.

BALTI and SAN FRAN are those teams today according to the JM crew.

[therber2]

NYY/DET over10 -110 (8 units) PPD
Boston -152 (7 units)
STL -1.5 -110 (6 units)
STL-240 (6 units)
TAM ML -127(12 units)
TAM -1.5 +125 (5 units)
Dodgers +160 (5 units)
BOS/TOR over10 -121 (3 units)
Giants -160 (5 units)
Minnesota Twins -165 (2 units)
OAK/TEX o9 -110 (DSI) (3 units)
BAL/SEA u8 -105 (2 units)
Phillies -180 (5 units) PPD
Baltimore O's +1.5 (3 units)
Twins -1.5 +120 (1.5 units)
NYY Yankees -1.5 +115 (1 unit) PPD
SDG/SFO o7 -120 (.5 units)
Brewers +110 (.5 units)
Mets -139 (.5 units)

7-9 -2.78 units