The Big Card

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoog / Thurber -

Something I'm working on; I can't go into specifics just yet; do you mind if I post the plays here?

It might be something that bears a look. I've back-tested it for the last 10 or so days and it looks pretty good. Not anything to set the world on fire but it looks like you can grind out profits and have tons of action every day. I want to back-test it for the whole year before I get into any further detail of what it is.

Vinny Vidivicci

[sycoogtit]

5/16 final card

Once again, I feel good about all of my picks. However I also feel okay about the few I've decided to play, so that's nice...

parlay pirates ml/tigers ml 3.1u tw 16.9u
pirates ml +194 2.7u
tigers ml +130 2.7u
reds ml +112 1.4u
bj's ml +114 0.7u

[sycoogtit]

Sycoog / Thurber - Something I'm working on; I can't go into specifics just yet; do you mind if I post the plays here? It might be something that bears a look. I've back-tested it for the last 10 or so days and it looks pretty good. Not anything to set the world on fire but it looks like you can grind out profits and have tons of action every day. I want to back-test it for the whole year before I get into any further detail of what it is. Vinny Vidivicci

That's what this thread is for dude. Please do post your picks!

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Ok- thanks, here goes -

All picks will have a cut-off of -150 juice.
I'm taking my Favorites at a ML risk of -150 or less.
I'm taking my Dogs +1.5 RL at a risk of -150 or less.
So essentially, I'll be laying up to -150 on all picks.

Early Starts -

Cinc. Reds +1.5(-141)
Atl. Braves -PK(-111)
Pitt. Pirates +1.5(-115)
Tor. B.Jays +1.5(-141)
NY Yankees -PK(-126)
Det. Tigers +1.5(-125)
Balt. Orioles +1.5(-141)
TBay Rays -PK(-142)
Florida is a pick but I threw them out because the odds are over -150

These are the 1 PM starts -
I'm working on the other games now and I'll post them in a few with the system's records as far back as I've tested it. I'll back-test it for the year-to-date and update the year-to-date record later this afternoon.

This is only a test - play or fade at will.

Vinny Vidivicci

[sycoogtit]

Sweet, bud!

[Vinny Vidivicci]

OK - Here's the rest of the card (By the way, all prices are MatchBook's) -

Col. Rockies -PK(-120)
Phil. Phillies -PK(-135)
LA Angels is a pick, but right now the ML is -150; I'm in a holding pattern on this game.

I came up with 2 unique situations - My system is designed to bet the ML on Faves and take the +1.5 runs with the Dogs. My system also picked the LA Dodgers and the Chicago White Sox. They are both small Dogs on the ML at MatchBook, BUT - They are both GIVING -1.5 runs ; therefore, I'm passing both of these games.

Here are the records including May 6th (last Friday) through May 15th (yesterday) -

AWAY DOGS +1.5 RUNS 14-6
HOME DOGS +1.5 RUNS 14-8
TOTAL 28-14

At a price of -1.50(MAX) and 1.5 runs equals +7.0 Units.

AWAY FAVES -ML 9-6
HOME FAVES -ML 24-16
TOTAL 33-22

At a price of -1.50(MAX) equals + 0.0 Units(Breaking Even).
-1.50 is the Maximum lay price on a Favorite, so you'd be making a few cents.

OK - I'm back-testing the rest of the year (prior to May 6th), and hopefully it will support what I've documented in the May 6th - May 15th data listed above.

I'll post it when I'm done.

- Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

I have now washed my bet on the Phillies above. They are an Away Fave and I won't be playing Away Faves with this system.

Here's the Year-To-Date Record on the system -

Away Dogs +1.5 Runs ........................ 23-12 65.7% supports a price of -192 or less
Away Faves -Pick ML .......................... 18-18 50.0% DO NOT PLAY AWAY FAVES
Home Dogs +1.5 Runs ....................... 34-16 70.0% supports a price of -212 or less
Home Faves -Pick ML ......................... 71-42 62.8% supports a price of -169 or less

Although the plays that I'll be choosing support a price of above -150, I'm stilling making -150 my cut-off point for making a pick.
So far, so good today with most of my picks winning, but no finals yet. I'll post results later and I'll continue to post the plays on Monday.

-Vinny Vidivicci

[sycoogtit]

I'm liking it Vinny! Do you have a unit breakdown for those final numbers, or would that be too time consuming?

[sycoogtit]

5/16 final card

parlay pirates ml/tigers ml 3.1u tw 16.9u
pirates ml +194 2.7u
tigers ml +130 2.7u
reds ml +112 1.4u
bj's ml +114 0.7u

3-2 +0.4u

since 5/8
84-59 +24.3 units

[therber2]

Thereber2,

Not sure if you noticed yesterday, but we were up by 1.98 units with 2 plays left (opponent already completed all his 14 plays). The only way we could lose was by losing the final 2 one unit plays, so yesterday I played TB ml and Seattle +1.5 runs to guarantee the win no matter what the final score was. TB won 4-3, and we won both bets anyway. We continue on and are ranked 1st in the leaderboard.

This now has me wondering, although its most likely a losing proposition.

Do you or anyone else have the figures for one run games? Especially where the game total is 7 or less.

I've never done this, but in some instances I see the fav ml -130 and the dog +1.5 -140 (using different books). If one were to play both for a 100 it would be risking $40 (the most you could lose in this example) to win $200, 5-1 odds in hopes of the fav to win by 1.

I was wondering if at 5-1 odds could it still be worth the risk?

More stats to check out, lol.

Good luck today!

Jersey, I just started doing an excellent 4 to 6 play parlay system that works like this:

I find all of my good leans for the day. Then, using a method similar to what you came up with, I project a game total. Lets say I have 15 games each with a lean of my own and project totals ranging from 5 - 13 runs. I'll go through the list and take game that are going to be tight (aka. projected runs of 6 or so), and then I'll find bets where I just feel the team won't lose by a lot, and bet the alt. RL (like playing +2.5 or +1.5 for favs) in a parlay. I've played 3 of these so far and hit all of them.

The 5 to 1 odds thing you mention could be worth it, but I have no data to support it. Me and sycoogtit were talking about taking the Dog for say +138 and the Fav RL for +128 hoping that the game won't land on 1 diff. I guess you'd do the reverse there. Take this bet with games where you are projects lots of runs (therefore, higher chance of no landing on the 1 spot). Seem like a bet that would win at a higher rate, but with much less return.

[therber2]

Sycoog / Thurber -

Something I'm working on; I can't go into specifics just yet; do you mind if I post the plays here?

It might be something that bears a look. I've back-tested it for the last 10 or so days and it looks pretty good. Not anything to set the world on fire but it looks like you can grind out profits and have tons of action every day. I want to back-test it for the whole year before I get into any further detail of what it is.

Vinny Vidivicci

Vinny. Give it a go; sorry I was busy all day. I'll give your system a read through. I'm completely for hearing what you've got

[therber2]

Phillies -140 (12 units)

[therber2]

I have now washed my bet on the Phillies above. They are an Away Fave and I won't be playing Away Faves with this system.

Here's the Year-To-Date Record on the system -

Away Dogs +1.5 Runs ........................ 23-12 65.7% supports a price of -192 or less
Away Faves -Pick ML .......................... 18-18 50.0% DO NOT PLAY AWAY FAVES
Home Dogs +1.5 Runs ....................... 34-16 70.0% supports a price of -212 or less
Home Faves -Pick ML ......................... 71-42 62.8% supports a price of -169 or less

Although the plays that I'll be choosing support a price of above -150, I'm stilling making -150 my cut-off point for making a pick.
So far, so good today with most of my picks winning, but no finals yet. I'll post results later and I'll continue to post the plays on Monday.

-Vinny Vidivicci

Vinny, do you cap the game or are you just playing off what the lines dictate; sorry a little confused. This should be very interesting.

[therber2]

Jersey another idea: from what I've noticed, it seems that many deciding sweep games (game 3 series score 0-2 or 2-0) will be close games. For example the Phillies game would be a good pick if the teams were closer ranked and maybe not so streaky. Maybe break down the numbers for this scenario. if it is a bet where you only have to win 20% of the time it is worth looking into IMO.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Just got home - I had to pull a 4 hour shift at work. I'm glad I posted this - it went 7-2 today; I hope some people tailed and made $$$.

Let me get settled and I'll answer the e-mails in a bit.

Sad thing is that the +1.5 runs only helped Pittsburgh; the other Dogs all won outright (Cincy, Toronto, and Detroit) and Baltimore was a Loss either way.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoogit - Regarding post #533

Sounds like a good idea and something I want to do.

I can do a workup of net units on ML Favorites because I have an Excel spreadsheet with Overnight and Closing Moneylines on all the games with Final Score results.

I don't have Runline prices though; if anyone wants to extrapolate a Runline/Price chart for me based on what the Closing Moneylines for Dogs are, I'm willing to go back and work out Units won.

Like I said above, I'd like to do this for my own peace of mind anyhow - to find out what the Net Units Won would be. When I stumbled on this late Saturday Night, I back-checked it and l very much liked the results I got so I asked if I could post it here.

My next post will explain the concept of it and answer Thurber's question.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -

This system doesn't cap the games at all. It only has to do with comparing the recent results of the Away team Away and the recent results of the Home team at Home. There's no sense in going into a more lengthy explanation until I can back-check what my Units won and prices are for the year-to-date. That's why I need an extrapolated chart of what a Dog's price to buy a run and a half would be to check the viability of this system when it bets Away Dogs and Home Dogs.

System went 7-2 today.

Winners were Cincy, Atlanta, Pitt.(+1.5 Runs), Toronto, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Colorado.
Losers were Baltimore and Yankees, and the Yankees included a rare Mariano Rivera meltdown where he walked in a run and gave up a Grand-Slam too!!

I won roughly 3.5 units net.

I'm going to try and extrapolate a Dog Run-Line price chart and post it here. I'll be basing it on bets I placed today at Match-Book. If anyone wants to try and fill in the blanks, I'd appreciate it.

I'm working on Monday's picks now.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Sounds like you are onto something there :-) Let's see it! Still don't fully understand how you derive the picks though.

[JerseyShop101]

Sycoogit - Regarding post #533

Sounds like a good idea and something I want to do.

I can do a workup of net units on ML Favorites because I have an Excel spreadsheet with Overnight and Closing Moneylines on all the games with Final Score results.

I don't have Runline prices though; if anyone wants to extrapolate a Runline/Price chart for me based on what the Closing Moneylines for Dogs are, I'm willing to go back and work out Units won.

Like I said above, I'd like to do this for my own peace of mind anyhow - to find out what the Net Units Won would be. When I stumbled on this late Saturday Night, I back-checked it and l very much liked the results I got so I asked if I could post it here.

My next post will explain the concept of it and answer Thurber's question.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

The only place I have found the Runline odds for previous games was actually right right here at SBR. I wish there was an easier way then clicking on each game. Its a lot of work but here's the link.

http://sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds.aspx

[therber2]

Vinny what are you looking at in regards to recent performance?

[therber2]

Jersey big time congrats to you so for with the contest; I hope the addition at cleanup hitter is working out/saving you some time in your routine. Glad you are tanking through. I'll let you know if I find anything spectacular for your next round.

Did you see my post up there for you about how to create the prop that the game WON'T land on 1 difference?

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thanks, Jersey -

I didn't realize that was available here.

Since I created an Excel spreadsheet to test this system last night and this AM, it will be pretty easy for me to fill in the blanks and compute what the Units won would be.

I'm composing a complete explanation in my next post; also working on Monday's games but that can wait; overnight prices at Matchbook are volatile.

~Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Therber -

Composing my explanation now.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Sounds good. Vinny, you don't sound like a newb (26 posts though); where are you from my man?

[therber2]

Phillies -140 (12 units)

1-0 +12 units

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber and whoever else gives a shit -

Years ago (many years ago), there was a quick way to find Live Dogs in Baseball; this was in the days before the exotic stats that people use nowadays.

You bet a team who had WON at least 7 of it's last 11 games in today's game as a DOG (today).
You faded a team who had LOST at least 7 of it's last 11 games in today's game as a FAVE (today).

I wanted to refine this system by looking at each team's results - Away team Away and Home team at Home. The problem with this is that to go back 11 game's outcomes for both teams you would have to examine around 21 days of results for each team to compile 11 games Away or Home for each team. Why not just use each team's winning pctgs Home and Away?
Too easy and unlikely to work - anyone with Today's newspaper can do this in 5 minutes.

I wanted to cut back on the data a bit so I calculated what 7 wins (or losses) in 11 games is.
Simple Math - 7 divided by 11 equals .636.

The closest thing I could find was going back 8 games and using 5 positive (or negative) results.
Simple Math - 5 divided by 8 equals .625. Pretty darn close to the above.

So I settled on 8 games and my intent was to go back 8 games Away for the Away team; and 8 games Home for the Home team. You examine a "moving window" of each team's last 8 games Home or Away.
Each day the oldest result is discarded and replaced by the most recent result.

My intent was to take Dogs who had Won at least 5 of their last 8 games either Away or Home, depending on where they were playing Today, and regardless of what the Fave's record was in their last 8 games.
My intent was also to fade Faves who had Lost 5 of their last games Away or Home, depending on where they were playing Today, and regardless of what the Dog's record was in their last 8 games.

In back-checking the season, I had to wait until both teams had played at least 8 games either Home or Away to matchup their results. This occurred in some of the games beginning on April 21, so I started there. As each day went by, more and more teams were included once they had 8 results Home or Away.

I then created a spreadsheet schedule with each team's number of wins matched up against their opponent's number of wins. I used a spreadsheet that I had with Closing Lines and Final Scores included. Remember, I use a "floating last 8 games results" for each team.

Rather then just isolate the 5 out of 8 theory above, I did a quick check and tracked any results where one team had more wins in an 8 game period then their opponent did. I labeled each of these as to what they were - ie. - Away Dog, Away Fave, Home Dog, and Home Fave. I then tweaked the results by adding 1.5 runs for the Away and Home Dogs to see what impact that would have. I did the same for Away and Home Faves minus 1.5 runs. The year-to-date results (before Sunday, May 16th) are in post #532.

Questions and reactions welcome.

~Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Therber -

I'm only a newbie here. I live 1/4 mile from ESPN (Bristol, CT.) and I've been betting sports since the early '70s. (1970s) -

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Here are the records (prior to Sunday) and how I tweaked them -

Away Dogs with a plus number of Wins (vs the Home Team's wins) -
18-17 straight up ............ 23-12 with +1.5 Runs - PLAY ON, +1.5 RL ONLY.

Home Dogs with a plus number of Wins (vs the Away Team's wins) -
24-26 straight up ............ 34-16 with +1.5 Runs - PLAY ON, +1.5 RL ONLY.

Away Faves with a plus number of Wins (vs the Home Team's wins) -
18-18 straight up ............ 16-20 giving -1.5 Runs - NO PLAY, either way.

Home Faves with a plus number of Wins (vs the Away Team's wins) -
71-42 straight up ............ 53-60 giving -1.5 Runs - PLAY ON, ML ONLY (-150 OR LESS).

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Thanks a lot for clearing that up Vinny, and thanks so much for sharing this. Yes, based on what you've seen this season the obvious plays to take would be:

Home Faves with a plus number of Wins (vs the Away Team's wins) ML -150 or less
maaybe away faves same deal
NO RL
and
Home or Away Dogs with a plus number of Wins (vs the Home Team's wins) +1.5

I don't know if taking all of these plays would yield plus units but you are finding winners and that is a good start. Vinny you say you've been doing this since 40 years back? What do you find to be the best approach here to win $$?

I'd like to see your plays and if anything we use them as filters. Could you post the matchup %'s that base the plays along with your plays tomorrow.

I have a secret weapon for tomorrow. Just finished it now. Going to give it a go tomorrow. Stay tuned.

[peterpan19]

vinny

maybe you could give us a few examples for todays games ?

GL

[sycoogtit]

veni, be careful what you tell peterpan. He might accuse you of stealing his system.

[sycoogtit]

5/17 card in progress, 1 unit across the board

Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Glad everyone understood the convoluted explanation. The thing I've learned in sports betting is that things change year to year. What works great 1 year may tank the next. That's why you have to keep all of these tools handy and see what's working. I have some errands to run and I'll post my plays a little later.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Totals 5/17

Totals for 5/17:

SEA/OAK under8 -115 (4 units)
NYM/ATL over8.5 -110 (4 units)
KC/BAL under9 EV (4 units)
SFO over6 -115 (3 units)

Side leans:
ATL
FLA
LOS

weak leans:
PHI
CIN
COL

[solobass]

Best of luck today gentleman. Keep refining I like the effort and data here.