The Big Card

[sycoogtit]

5/18 final card

Arizona (Buckner) at Florida (Johnson) u8.5 -107
Arizona (Buckner) at Florida (Johnson) -1.5 +115
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) -1.5 +113
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) u9 -109
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -127
Cleveland (Huff) at Tampa Bay (Price) -1.5 -113
Colorado (Chacin) at Chicago (N) (Silva) -101
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) -1.5 +120
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) u7 +102
Kansas City (Greinke) at Baltimore (Millwood) +114
Los Angeles (A) (Weaver) at Texas (Wilson) u8.5 -105
Los Angeles (A) (Weaver) at Texas (Wilson) -122
Milwaukee (Parra) at Cincinnati (Bailey) -134
Minnesota (Pavano) at Toronto (Marcum)-118
New York (N) (Santana) at Atlanta (Medlen) +100
San Francisco (Sanchez) at San Diego (Latos) u6 -102
San Francisco (Sanchez) at San Diego (Latos) -116
Seattle (Hernandez) at Oakland (Sheets) +109
Washington (Lannan) at St. Louis (Carpenter) -1.5 -104
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) +172 .5u
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) +185 .5u
Washington (Lannan) at St. Louis (Carpenter) +240 .5u

If anybody is paying attention, I hedged 3 of my RL bets. I was never really comfortable with those and shouldn't have played them at all. Hopefully the favorites don't win those games by 1 run!

11-11 +.7u

since 5/8
110-77 +30.9 units

[sycoogtit]

Hey guys. After reading therber's response about 8 days maybe not being enough, I decided to expand the window from 3-10 to 3-15. I also added HD and AD ML to see how they compared to the RL. The results are basically just more lines with nothing really to gain. Here are some more pretty pics... which just made me realize that most threads here have pretty pics of HOT WOMEN, and we have pretty pics of COLORED LINES. We suck.




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[peterpan19]

sycoo

Could you maybe post a diagram where you add up all the results (2007+8+9+10) for each aspect ?

I am also working on a 2 game chase system, so far so good, but backtesting would be important.

Also as for Veni system, maybe we have to exlcude Sept and maybe start Mid May at is earliest, meaning teams need some time to adjust to each other and in Sept some teams pla hard and some not, which means some might win and some maybe dont.

Also breaking it down into the number of wins more than the opp might help.

I know you can get a lot of data, but it might be a good idea?

BOL

[therber2]

PHI -1.5 -140 (3 units)
FLA -1.5 +115 (5 units)
Rays -1.5 -120 (5 units)
TAM/CLE u8.5 (2 units)
NYY/BOS o9 -105 (1 unit)
LAA +115 (3 units)
Cubs -104 (1 unit)
SDG Padres -120 (.5 units)
LAA/SDG o8.5 EV (1 unit)
PIT/PHI o8 -110 (1 unit)
Mets -105 (2 units)
STL -1.5 -115 (5 units)
LOS Dodgers -1.5 +120 (1 unit)

7-6 -.8 units

[therber2]

Hey guys. After reading therber's response about 8 days maybe not being enough, I decided to expand the window from 3-10 to 3-15. I also added HD and AD ML to see how they compared to the RL. The results are basically just more lines with nothing really to gain. Here are some more pretty pics... which just made me realize that most threads here have pretty pics of HOT WOMEN, and we have pretty pics of COLORED LINES. We suck.

Nice work there..I think you misunderstood what I said; however this is much better I think to expand the time frame. My point is this: a team's 5, 10, or even maybe 15 day performance (record) may not accurately dictate their overall quality. Now, if MOST of the time or at least enough of the time it does then there is money to be made. Now...let me look at these lines... What is with 2007 being the year you lose money across the board?

[therber2]

sycoo

Could you maybe post a diagram where you add up all the results (2007+8+9+10) for each aspect ?

I am also working on a 2 game chase system, so far so good, but backtesting would be important.

Also as for Veni system, maybe we have to exlcude Sept and maybe start Mid May at is earliest, meaning teams need some time to adjust to each other and in Sept some teams pla hard and some not, which means some might win and some maybe dont.

Also breaking it down into the number of wins more than the opp might help.

I know you can get a lot of data, but it might be a good idea?

BOL

I think Peterpan hit the nail on the head with a couple of things. sycoogtit, the pm I just sent you: one of the things I was planning was looking at the cummulative 2007 to current results.

Second bolded thing. I hope you guys didn't include preseason or post. Glad you brought that up Peterpan.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Tuesday, May 19th was 6-2 +3.2 Units (YTD : 17-8 +5.8 Units)

Here's the picks for the Window-8 System for Wednesday, May 19th -

Washington HF (3)
Milwaukee AF (2)
Philly HF (3)
Colorado AF (1)
St. Louis HF (1)
San Fran AD (4)
San Diego AD (2)
Yankees HF (1)
Boston HF (1)
Texas HF (4)
White Sox HF (2)
Oakland HD (3)
Toronto AD (4)

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -

My picks started mid-April; once teams had 8 (regular season) results compiled Home and Away. I discarded any match-ups where 1 team had 8 results but the other team didn't.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Thurber -

My picks started mid-April; once teams had 8 (regular season) results compiled Home and Away. I discarded any match-ups where 1 team had 8 results but the other team didn't.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

Okay, that works :-) What is your ending date though?

[therber2]

Tuesday, May 19th was 6-2 +3.2 Units (YTD : 17-8 +5.8 Units)

Here's the picks for the Window-8 System for Wednesday, May 19th -

Washington HF (3)
Milwaukee AF (2)
Philly HF (3)
Colorado AF (1)
St. Louis HF (1)
San Fran AD (4)
San Diego AD (2) this one was close
Yankees HF (1)
Boston HF (1)
Texas HF (4)
White Sox HF (2)
Oakland HD (3)
Toronto AD (4)

~ Vinny Vidivicci

Vinny, good luck today and great job yesterday. I posted my card on the previous page early. I am bolding the picks that we have in common. 10 -14 (71.4%) we agree on. Let's see what percent of these cash

[sycoogtit]

sycoo Could you maybe post a diagram where you add up all the results (2007+8+9+10) for each aspect ?

That's a good idea. I'm running that right now.

I am also working on a 2 game chase system, so far so good, but backtesting would be important.

I'd be happy to backtest it for you.

maybe we have to exlcude Sept and maybe start Mid May at is earliest, meaning teams need some time to adjust to each other and in Sept some teams pla hard and some not

Good point. The data doesn't start until each team has WINDOW_SIZE home or away games, but it goes through the end of the regular season. I'll limit it in the next run.

What is with 2007 being the year you lose money across the board?

I have no damn clue, but I don't like it. 2007 is as far back as I can get both ML and RL lines though.

I hope you guys didn't include preseason or post.

Definitely not.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -

I don't have an ending date yet, unless it starts to tank.

~ VV

[TodaysAction]

Tuesday, May 19th was 6-2 +3.2 Units (YTD : 17-8 +5.8 Units)

Here's the picks for the Window-8 System for Wednesday, May 19th -

Washington HF (3)
Milwaukee AF (2)
Philly HF (3)
Colorado AF (1)
St. Louis HF (1)
San Fran AD (4)
San Diego AD (2)
Yankees HF (1)
Boston HF (1)
Texas HF (4)
White Sox HF (2)
Oakland HD (3)
Toronto AD (4)

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -

Any way we can back-test yours and mine?
I'd go back and check through the posts but between you and sycoog - I don't know who's are who's. In checking them, I got the sense that Sycoog was posting your system's picks for a while.

~VV

[sycoogtit]

5/19 card in progress

Baltimore (Guthrie) at Texas (Harden) u9 +110
Baltimore (Guthrie) at Texas (Harden) -158
Chicago (N) (Gorzelanny) at Philadelphia (Moyer) u9.5 -119
Chicago (N) (Gorzelanny) at Philadelphia (Moyer) -141
Cincinnati (Harang) at Atlanta (Kawakami) +117
Detroit (Verlander) at Oakland (Braden) u7 +100
Detroit (Verlander) at Oakland (Braden) -117
Florida (Sanchez) at St. Louis (Garcia) -167
Los Angeles (A) (Saunders) at Chicago (A) (Danks) u8.5 +105
Los Angeles (A) (Saunders) at Chicago (A) (Danks) -144
Milwaukee (Wolf) at Pittsburgh (Burress) u9 +108
Milwaukee (Wolf) at Pittsburgh (Burress) +136
Minnesota (Baker) at Boston (Buchholz) +117
New York (N) (Hernandez) at Washington (Dickey) -134
San Diego (Garland) at Los Angeles (N) (Ortiz) +110
San Francisco (Wellemeyer) at Arizona (Kennedy) u10 -106
San Francisco (Wellemeyer) at Arizona (Kennedy) +157
Tampa Bay (Davis) at New York (A) (Burnett) u9 +115
Tampa Bay (Davis) at New York (A) (Burnett) +142

[sycoogtit]

In checking them, I got the sense that Sycoog was posting your system's picks for a while.

For a while therber and I were running an experiment and posting our picks based off that system -- an interesting side note is our picks were frequently on opposite sides even though they were from the same experiment's results.

However, my picks over the last week or so have just been me handicapping each game. No system or experimentation going. I actually PM'd therber about this, asking if I should post my daily plays elsewhere since I'm not testing out a system anymore. I haven't heard back, but you just answered my question.

This is an idea generation thread and my daily picks aren't really in that stage anymore. It's interesting for me to see which of our picks match, but my plays shouldn't be cluttering this thread anymore.

I'm still going to be active in this thread doing backtesting and stuff, but I'll just post my plays elsewhere.

EDIT
Another note is when I first entered this thread, I tried to automate therber's picks and posts for him, thinking that would save him time. A couple of my early posts were actually made by my program using one of therber's early systems.

[therber2]

Thurber -

Any way we can back-test yours and mine?
I'd go back and check through the posts but between you and sycoog - I don't know who's are who's. In checking them, I got the sense that Sycoog was posting your system's picks for a while.

~VV

Nah, me and Sycoog are always working together on stuff.

Wouldn't want to attempt a backtest of my plays; would be practically impossible.

[therber2]

Thurber -

I don't have an ending date yet, unless it starts to tank.

~ VV

Actually I should have directed this at sycoogtit since he is backtesting. Sorry guys. I just meant in those graphs posted what is the range? It is roughly 8 games into the regular season until what date? If you are doing the end of the season that might be throwing off results I'd do until Sept. like Peterpan said.

[sycoogtit]

If anybody cares, I started a thread for my plays in order to avoid confusion in here

I'm actually not sure if I'll keep that going. I liked being hidden in here. Don't know.

[therber2]

sycoogtit. You got my PM. I have absolutely no problem with you guys posting your picks; I've seen cluttered threads and this is nothing. I appreciate the concern.
Best of luck today guys!

PS. If anyone wants to start their own thread with picks derived here; I of course have no problem with that either.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Therber -

Thanks for allowing me, and anyone else for that matter to post their picks here. Have you abandoned your % inning scored system?

What window(number of games back) worked best on that?

Which system is up 90-ish units since early May or whenever it was?

I appreciate your generosity in allowing posts here, myself included, but I don't want to turn this into a cluster-fvck.

~VV

[sycoogtit]

Here's the veni cumulative graph. I removed both AD ML and AD RL because they performed so poorly that it was difficult to read the other data.

I'm running the limiting version next.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoog -

If I'm reading it correctly -

HF's on the ML do best with a window of both 4 and 13 games?
If so, how about when they both agree on the same HF?
(IMO - probably they would have the same pick 95% of the time and do just as well)

HD's on the ML do best with a 12 game window?

HD's on the RL do best with a 10 or 11 game window?

Am I reading your graph correctly?

What about AD's?

Thanks for all of the work you are doing. Hope we can get some value out of it.

~ VV

[obamaismyuncle]

goodluck

[sycoogtit]

Veni, yes you're reading the graph correctly. Home dogs on the ML actually do best when no prior history is taken into account (0 window size). Like I said in that post, AD perform so poorly in both ML and RL that I took them out. They were down into the negative 100's. Maybe worth a fade there.

[sycoogtit]

Excluding September and beyond is even worse than the previous results.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Excuse me for being thick ... so what you're saying is I've had a horse-shoe up my a@@ the last few days?

That sucks.

~ VV

[sycoogtit]

I'm not saying that at all. 2007 results really suck and screw everything up. 2008 the AD did really poorly and you would have lost a few units on them. 2009 the HD did poorly and lost a few units. So far for this year, the only way to lose units would have been playing the HF RL, which you don't even do.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

I didn't mean to have my post READ so harshly, I just felt like my balloon got pricked.

I appreciate the work you do here.

I guess we'll see how far we can ride this pony.

~ VV

[sycoogtit]

I know the feeling. I wish I had better results to share.

[solobass]

Keep up the good work people. Yeah I dig chicks in real life not on threads so get to work and make that money!

Here is my 2 cents. Trending is a vey valuable tool just keep in mind what we are trying to do is predict the future not the past. Very few days correspond with historical averages but you are on your way to a good long term strategy.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoog -

If it's not too much trouble -

Can you do a cumulative chart of 2008, 2009, and 2010 (excluding 2007)?
This way we can basically put a ceiling level for our most positive expectations and see if it's worth pursuing.

~ VV

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Funny how all Home teams tank at a window of 6 (on the cumulative graph).


~ VV

[sycoogtit]

Good lord, fading AD sucks as well.

[sycoogtit]

Funny how all Home teams tank at a window of 6 (on the cumulative graph). ~ VV

That is odd. What does that mean?