The Big Card

[therber2]

NBA Alert: Phoenix Suns +2 2nd Half (10 units)

and thats why I don't do NBA

[therber2]

Vinny keep it up brutha. I may have some suggestions on your card. Just need to see you produce it a few more times. Are you using last 8 games for all of them?

[peterpan19]

Peterpan19 -

To answer your questions from post #590 -

As I mentioned above, I hate to lay more than -150 on a Fave. They have to play .600 ball for you to break-even over the long haul. And how many .600 teams are there by the end of the year?

Well the only team I would trust right now to do that are the NYY and maybe PHI and one team we dont know yet, but PHI sometimes goes on a bad streak and looses a few games in a row at home and on the road, not that the Yankees dont, but they are more consistent right now.

I've always LOVED betting dogs because you only need to hit 50% to win $$$. But then, after looking at what the +1.5 run did to my Away and Home Dog's records, I don't really mind laying sub -1.50 juice for +1.5 runs here. It gives your dogs 2 way to win, and the records support it. What I'm saying is - I think I'd rather lay -1.50 on a Dog and get +1.5 runs then lay -1.50 on a small Fave.

Although my database for lines and final scores was based on a webpage from Heritage that I copied and pasted into Excel, I now only bet at MatchBook; they have the best prices anywhere.

So you lay -170 or so for a RL dog sometimes, and yes it gives you a few more outs too.
Now as for the lines, Heritage is good and if you worked with them and it worked, thats great, on a second thought I wouldnt change anything if you had success only loking at Heritage. Sure you can get great lines on Matchbook, but I would stick with Heritage, you normally need a real book to compare it with.

Good question regarding how teams do as their margins of excess wins increases. I am tracking that too. The numbers are too small this early in the season to determine much from them as the difference in wins between the 2 teams increases. So far -
Largest Away Dog disparity was 5 games and it is 0-1 SU (1-0 with RL).
Largest Home Dog disparity is also 5 games 1-2 SU (3-0 with RL).
Largest Away Fave disparity is also 5 games 0-2 SU.
Largest Home Fave disparity is 6 games 1-0 SU; BUT, at a disparity of 5 games it is only 3-4 SU.

I'll keep an eye on it.

~Vinny Vidivicci

Now at first you might think that the higher the difference the higher the win%, but it is not the case if you think about the following: There is something called regression to the mean, some call it due factore or just the fact that baseball is pretty close even after 162 games and we have a lot of teams very close at the end in most years. So if they won a lot of games in the last 8 or lost a lot in the last 8, their luck has to flip sooner or later.

It would be interesting to know what the record for 1,2,3 and 4 is.

Keep up the good work

BOL

[sycoogtit]

5/17 final card, 1 unit across the board

Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141 CANCELED
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) u9 +111
Cleveland (Carmona) at Tampa Bay (Niemann) RL +109
Houston (Rodriguez) at Los Angeles (N) (Ely) -150
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) +128
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) u7.5 +104
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) u9.5 +110
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) u10.5 -114
Minnesota (Slowey) at Toronto (Eveland)+102
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) u9.5 -120
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) u8.5 +109
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) -142
Milwaukee (Gallardo) at Cincinnati (Cueto) +107
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) RL +109
San Francisco (Cain) at San Diego (Richard) +104
Seattle (Rowland-Smith) at Oakland (Gonzalez) -150
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) -153
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) u9 +111
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) u8.5 -105

15-7 +5.9u

since 5/8
99-66 +30.2 units

[therber2]

SEA/OAK under8 -115 (4 units)
NYM/ATL over8.5 -110 (4 units)
KC/BAL under9 EV (4 units)
SFO over6 -115 (3 units)Marlins -145 (5 units)

1-4 -15.6

[therber2]

Still going to be working on the totals just with less units FYI.

[sycoogtit]

I think you've got something good therber, just a bad night.

[therber2]

5/18

inprogress...

PHI -1.5 -140 (8 units)
NYY/BOS o9 -105 (3 units)

[sycoogtit]

Hey veni, I'm trying to backtest your system for 07-09. I've written the program and am comparing the 2010 results with yours to make sure it's running correctly. I'm not getting the same results, so I want to make sure I've got the rules right.

1) Each team must have played 8 games previous to their matchup
2) Whichever team has more wins over their last 8 games qualifies as 1 of 3 categories:
Home team with odds >= -103 is HOME DOG, PLAY +1.5
Home team with odds <= -105 is HOME FAV*
HOME FAV* with odds <= -150 is NO PLAY
HOME FAV* with odds > -150 is HOME FAV, PLAY ML
Away team with odds <= -105 is NO PLAY
Away team with odds >= -103 is AWAY DOG, PLAY +1.5

Is that right?

[peterpan19]

syco

8 previous games away or at home

rest looks good to me

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Hi Guys -

4-4 yesterday, I lost juice.

First I'll post today's plays with the number in ("x") the margin of wins at site. Then I'll answer questions.
Thurber - take note - The number ("x") - this is the delta number of wins that the pick has wherever they are playing compared to their opponent's number of wins wherever they are playing (IN THEIR LAST 8 GAMES-EACH). Example - Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 8 ON THE ROAD and Cincy has won 6 of their last 8 AT HOME. Cincy is a ("1").

Early Game PICKS (Matchbook prices) -

Cincy (1) -129
Arizona (1) +1.5 RL -125
Toronto (2) -116
Detroit (3) - 129
Tampa Bay (1) -242 - NO PLAY(Line too high)

Continued in next post -

~Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

5/18

PHI -1.5 -140 (3 units)
FLA -1.5 +115 (5 units)
Rays -1.5 -120 (5 units)
TAM/CLE u8.5 (2 units)
NYY/BOS o9 -105 (1 unit)
LAA +115 (3 units)
Cubs -104 (1 unit)
SDG Padres -120 (.5 units)
LAA/SDG o8.5 EV (1 unit)
PIT/PHI o8 -110 (1 unit)
Mets -105 (2 units)
STL -1.5 -115 (5 units)
LOS Dodgers -1.5 +120 (1 unit)

[sycoogtit]

5/18 card in progress

Arizona (Buckner) at Florida (Johnson) u8.5 -107
Arizona (Buckner) at Florida (Johnson) -1.5 +115
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) -1.5 +113
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) u9 -109
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -127
Cleveland (Huff) at Tampa Bay (Price) -1.5 -113
Colorado (Chacin) at Chicago (N) (Silva) -101
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) -1.5 +120
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) u7 +102
Kansas City (Greinke) at Baltimore (Millwood) +114
Los Angeles (A) (Weaver) at Texas (Wilson) u8.5 -105
Los Angeles (A) (Weaver) at Texas (Wilson) -122
Milwaukee (Parra) at Cincinnati (Bailey) -134
Minnesota (Pavano) at Toronto (Marcum)-118
New York (N) (Santana) at Atlanta (Medlen) +100
San Francisco (Sanchez) at San Diego (Latos) u6 -102
San Francisco (Sanchez) at San Diego (Latos) -116
Seattle (Hernandez) at Oakland (Sheets) +109
Washington (Lannan) at St. Louis (Carpenter) -1.5 -104
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) u9 -103 unmatched

Lots of RLs here... not sure if I like that. It might be wise to pass on those plays, or at least on the minus odds RLs.

EDIT: I haven't gotten a match for the Detroit total at -103 and the line is moving away from there. If I can't get a match at -103 then I'll cross out that play.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Night Games -

Philly (3) -320 NO PLAY (Line too high)
Atlanta (3) +1.5 RL -168 (I have to find a new way to handle high juice on the RL)
Colorado / Cubs - NO PLAY (4 to 4)
St. Louis (1) -246 NO PLAY (Line too high)
San Fran. (1) - HOLDING PATTERN (They are a ML Dog and a RL Fave)
Dodgers (2) -187 NO PLAY (Line too high)
Yankees (5) -174 NO PLAY (Line too high)
Baltimore (2) +1.5 RL -143
Texas (5) -122
Oakland (2) +1.5 RL -151

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[sycoogtit]

syco 8 previous games away or at home rest looks good to me

Thank you sir.

[sycoogtit]

Aright Veni, my results for 2010 are pretty similar to yours. Close enough to test 07-09, I think. Here's what I got:

Home Fav <=-150, play RL: 25 - 33 (-4.43414285737373 units) -- I threw this in just to see how it would do
Home Fav > -150, play ML: 41 - 19 (16.85 units)
Home Dog, play on RL: 33 - 14 (14.417619047619)
Away Dog, play on RL: 20 - 10 (4.34)

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Peterpan (RE-Post #598) -

I only use Heritage's OL's and CL's for record-keeping because I can cut and paste results into an Excel spreadsheet. I've been doing this for years. As of this year, I bet only at Matchbook.

AND - I agree with your "regression to the mean" analysis. Maybe someone with programming skills (not moi) can do a median (not average, MEDIAN) for each team of what their numbers (Home and Away) would be using an 8 game window. Whenever a team is higher or lower than their Median number - then bet against it ...... ?

I'll post year-to-date records and break it down AD-AF-HD-HF with their ("x") wins included; I'll also do the same with + 1.5 Runs on the Dogs and -1.5 Runs on the Faves. It's going to be cluttered to look at on here though. I'll post this next. Records will be through Saturday, May 15th because I haven't added results from Sunday or Monday in yet. Someone with programming skills - HELP !! My skills are analytical and communicational (especially) - but I can't program worth a shit.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoog -

While I was hunt and peck typing, you evidently back-tested 2010. I'll still post the record's I have for this year (Through May 15) in my next post.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Records through May 15 -

AWAY DOGS ("x") are the Delta Wins ............S/U Results..................+1.5 Run Results
( 1 ) ........................................ .......................11-10..................................15-6
( 2 ) ........................................ .........................5-6.....................................5-6
( 3 ) ........................................ .........................1-0.....................................1-0
( 4 ) ........................................ .........................1-0.....................................1-0
( 5 ) ........................................ .........................0-1.....................................1-0
TOTAL ........................................ ...................18-17.................................23-12

HOME DOGS ("x") are the Delta Wins ............S/U Results...................+1.5 Run Results
( 1 ) ........................................ .......................11-12..................................16-7
( 2 ) ........................................ ........................10-7...................................12-5
( 3 ) ........................................ .........................2-3.....................................2-3
( 4 ) ........................................ .........................0-2.....................................1-1
( 5 ) ........................................ .........................1-2.....................................3-0
TOTAL ........................................ ...................24-26.................................34-16

AWAY FAVES ("x") are the Delta Wins .............S/U Results...................-1.5 Run Results
( 1 ) ........................................ .........................6-8.....................................5-9
( 2 ) ........................................ .........................4-6.....................................4-6
( 3 ) ........................................ .........................4-2.....................................4-2
( 4 ) ........................................ .........................4-0.....................................3-1
( 5 ) ........................................ .........................0-2.....................................0-2
TOTAL ........................................ ...................18-18.................................16-20

HOME FAVES ("x") are the Delta Wins ............S/U Results...................-1.5 Run Results
( 1 ) ........................................ ........................22-9...................................14-17
( 2 ) ........................................ ........................25-11..................................19-17
( 3 ) ........................................ .........................7-15....................................5-17
( 4 ) ........................................ ........................13-3....................................12-4
( 5 ) ........................................ .........................3-4......................................2-5
( 6 ) ........................................ .........................1-0......................................1-0
TOTAL ........................................ ....................71-42.................................53-60

Anyone see anything wrong? Anything stick out that I missed?

~ Vinny Vidivicci

PS - Visually appears better than I thought it would.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

A little analysis of my own -

The way I think I should play it is ...

Away and Home Dogs - 1/3 UNIT on the ML and 2/3 UNIT on the RL
Home Faves - 1 UNIT on the ML with a cut-off at -160
Away Faves - PASS

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[sycoogtit]

Veni you've got a pm.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Sycoog -

Thanks for the heads-up. Go ahead and post it here. If this is just a mini trend, better to let all here realize it. If you can see anything of value, let me know.

Some thoughts, because I sense you have the programming skills I wish I had -

7 game window, 9 game window? (probably the same results, IMO)

Peterpan's "regression to the mean" theory?

I'll keep tracking it and see what happens. I have to go out and do some BS errands this afternoon at the DMV, then I have to go to work; I probably won't be back till late evening tonight.

~Vinny Vidivicci

[sycoogtit]

Here are the results I got for the 8 game window from 2007-2009.

HF RL 2007 (ML odds <=-150): 171 - 203 (-5.95195019575785)
HF ML 2007 (ML odds >-150): 253 - 213 (-17.67)
HD 2007: 134 - 105 (-3.71937736243281)
AD 2007: 211 - 137 (-5.52284024432579)

HF RL 2008 (ML odds <=-150): 183 - 187 (14.2401039445032)
HF ML 2008 (ML odds >-150): 301 - 224 (14)
HD 2008: 154 - 106 (10.9281335940159)
AD 2008: 194 - 131 (-6.8341789754292)

HF RL 2009 (ML odds <=-150): 208 - 222 (5.82575425820081)
HF ML 2009 (ML odds >-150): 263 - 188 (23.51)
HD 2009: 137 - 106 (-11.8171231069339)
AD 2009: 191 - 117 (8.87164983164983)

The Home Fav ML looks pretty good the last couple of years, but I don't think it's anything I would bet on. I'll run a few different windows and post the results.

[sycoogtit]

I live 1/4 mile from ESPN (Bristol, CT.) and I've been betting sports since the early '70s. (1970s)

Just got home - I had to pull a 4 hour shift at work.

I have to go out and do some BS errands this afternoon at the DMV, then I have to go to work; I probably won't be back till late evening tonight.

Okay, so I'm looking for an ESPN analyst in his 60's or older working late tonight for around 4 hours. Peter Gammons, is that you?

[therber2]

15-7 +5.9u

since 5/8
99-66 +30.2 units

Nice work sycoogtit. Keep it up!

[sycoogtit]

5/18 final card

Arizona (Buckner) at Florida (Johnson) u8.5 -107
Arizona (Buckner) at Florida (Johnson) -1.5 +115
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) -1.5 +113
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) u9 -109
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -127
Cleveland (Huff) at Tampa Bay (Price) -1.5 -113
Colorado (Chacin) at Chicago (N) (Silva) -101
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) -1.5 +120
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) u7 +102
Kansas City (Greinke) at Baltimore (Millwood) +114
Los Angeles (A) (Weaver) at Texas (Wilson) u8.5 -105
Los Angeles (A) (Weaver) at Texas (Wilson) -122
Milwaukee (Parra) at Cincinnati (Bailey) -134
Minnesota (Pavano) at Toronto (Marcum)-118
New York (N) (Santana) at Atlanta (Medlen) +100
San Francisco (Sanchez) at San Diego (Latos) u6 -102
San Francisco (Sanchez) at San Diego (Latos) -116
Seattle (Hernandez) at Oakland (Sheets) +109
Washington (Lannan) at St. Louis (Carpenter) -1.5 -104
Boston (Beckett) at New York (A) (Sabathia) +172 .5u
Houston (Norris) at Los Angeles (N) (Kuroda) +185 .5u
Washington (Lannan) at St. Louis (Carpenter) +240 .5u

If anybody is paying attention, I hedged 3 of my RL bets. I was never really comfortable with those and shouldn't have played them at all. Hopefully the favorites don't win those games by 1 run!

[sycoogtit]

Nice work sycoogtit. Keep up the good work!

Thanks therb. I'm starting to get pretty nervous about this. It's going too well for it NOT to be a fluke.

[sycoogtit]

Okay here are the moving window results. 2007 just sucks all around. Kinda ruins everything. The units for 08 and 09 don't move how I thought they would in relation to the window size. I really can't find anything useful out of this. Maybe someone like therber with a better analytical mind can.




....................





.....................

[therber2]

This will take some time to look at, but I assure you I'll give you my two cents. You guys probably know better than me. All I can say so far is that I question the very fundamentals of the system. Meaning is the team with the better 8 day record the way to go? Not sure; all I can say is maybe, but perhaps not all of the time. Scott we talked about this... I'll be back later.

[cgars1]

looks interesting!!!

[Vinny Vidivicci]

No, I'm not Peter Gammons but I've actually met and talked to him 3-4 times. Believe it or not our 1st conversation was about Pena, the 1st baseman from Tampa, who is a Northeastern grad. We talked the day as a rookie he hit a walk-off HR in extra innings on Monday Night Baseball.

But if I was, I'd lie to you anyhow. But, no, I'm not he. His actual permanent residence is south of Boston, toward Cape Cod where I also have lived.

So what do the graphs tell us - anything good?

[therber2]

A little analysis of my own -

The way I think I should play it is ...

Away and Home Dogs - 1/3 UNIT on the ML and 2/3 UNIT on the RL
Home Faves - 1 UNIT on the ML with a cut-off at -160
Away Faves - PASS

~ Vinny Vidivicci

Vinny I really like this idea. I think that each game needs to be looked at in more depth though. I'll try to point out what I mean in your next card of plays. I think that sometimes playing the team with the better past 8 game record is NOT a good idea. You have to consider how each team has done all season long and if the winning team is a dog you want to see what their SOS and RPI was for those 8 games.

If this the winning team is .462 but they are .600 in their recent games up against low RPI teams then their 8 day SOS is much less than what you would think. There is much less merit in taking the winning team by 8 days then.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -

Thanks for the input. I just threw this out on the table Sunday after I back-checked it late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. For the record it's gone

Sunday 7-2 +4.2 units
Monday 4-4 -1.6 units
Tuesday 5-2 +2.2 units (1 game pending Oakland +1.5, tied 5-5 extra innings)

If Oakland wins with +1.5 runs -----------> 17-8 +5.8 Units
If Oakland loses with +1.5 runs ----------> 16-9 +3.4 Units

I just realized that a lot of dogs were knocking off the (maybe perceived) heavy-weights the last few weeks. I wanted to try something to cash in on those dogs and keep my ML risk manageable with small priced favorites. I wish we could tweak it somehow.

Going to bed now - off for the next 2 days - will post games again tomorrow.

Just a thought - I wonder how it would work as a filter to your system or your system as a filter to mine.

~Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

5/19

big card 5/19

Indians -130 (3 units)
Rays +141 (.5 units)
NYY/TAM u9 +105 (1 units)
Nationals -135 (1 unit)
WAS/NYM u8.5 +125 (2 units)
Phillies -130 (10 units) (wind gentle backwards)
PHI RL +145 (5 units)
CUB/PHI o9.5 EV (1 unit)
Brewers -145 (1 unit)
MIL/PIT o9 -110 (2 units)
Reds +125 (1 unit)
CIN/ATL over8.5 -105 (4 units)
Twins +110 (5 units) (wind strong blowing back)
Rockies -115 (.5 units) (gentle wind out)
Texas +125 RL (6 units)
Orioles +140 (2 units)
White Sox -150 (10 units)
under8.5 -105 (1 unit)
Cardinals -180 .5 units (wind gentle blowing out
Giants +142 4 units
Detroit -125 2 units (under Braden - Verlander)
DET/OAK under7 +105 (2 units)
Dodgers -115 (1 unit)
SDG/LOS under (2 units)
Blue Jays +118 2 unit wind pointed out.
TOR/SEA over7.5 +115 (4 units)

[therber2]

Thurber -

Thanks for the input. I just threw this out on the table Sunday after I back-checked it late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. For the record it's gone

Sunday 7-2 +4.2 units
Monday 4-4 -1.6 units
Tuesday 5-2 +2.2 units (1 game pending Oakland +1.5, tied 5-5 extra innings)

If Oakland wins with +1.5 runs -----------> 17-8 +5.8 Units
If Oakland loses with +1.5 runs ----------> 16-9 +3.4 Units

I just realized that a lot of dogs were knocking off the (maybe perceived) heavy-weights the last few weeks. I wanted to try something to cash in on those dogs and keep my ML risk manageable with small priced favorites. I wish we could tweak it somehow.

Going to bed now - off for the next 2 days - will post games again tomorrow.

Just a thought - I wonder how it would work as a filter to your system or your system as a filter to mine.

~Vinny Vidivicci

This is exactly what I am thinking Vinny :-)

Glad to see those positive results; you are some real smart fellas here. I just finished my early leans Vinny. Try to not base your picks off them at all. Let's see where we find a consensus.