The Big Card

therber2 · 05-17-10, 09:36 AM

sycoogtit, do the padres fit the dog system?

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 09:37 AM

5/17 card in progress, 1 unit across the board

added plays italicized
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141

therber2 · 05-17-10, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by solobass

Best of luck today gentleman. Keep refining I like the effort and data here.

Morning Solo, thank you. Pretty sure I got something solid with those totals there. GL to you today as well.

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by therber2

sycoogtit, do the padres fit the dog system?

No, Cain's in the top 20 of Sagarin.

therber2 · 05-17-10, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by sycoogtit

No, Cain's in the top 20 of Sagarin.

Lol. yeah I remember thinking that if for any reason they wouldn't be it would be Cain.

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 10:20 AM

5/17 card in progress, 1 unit across the board

added plays italicized
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) u9 +111
Cleveland (Carmona) at Tampa Bay (Niemann) RL +109
Houston (Rodriguez) at Los Angeles (N) (Ely) -150
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) +128

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 10:33 AM

5/17 card in progress, 1 unit across the board

added plays italicized
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) u9 +111
Cleveland (Carmona) at Tampa Bay (Niemann) RL +109
Houston (Rodriguez) at Los Angeles (N) (Ely) -150
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) +128
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) u7.5 +104
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) u9.5 +110
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) u10.5 -114

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 11:03 AM

therber, I do think the Padres are a decent dog.

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 11:20 AM

5/17 card in progress, 1 unit across the board

added plays italicized
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) u9 +111
Cleveland (Carmona) at Tampa Bay (Niemann) RL +109
Houston (Rodriguez) at Los Angeles (N) (Ely) -150
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) +128
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) u7.5 +104
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) u9.5 +110
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) u10.5 -114
Minnesota (Slowey) at Toronto (Eveland)+102
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) u9.5 -120
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) u8.5 +109
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) -142
Milwaukee (Gallardo) at Cincinnati (Cueto) +107
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) RL +109
San Francisco (Cain) at San Diego (Richard) +104
Seattle (Rowland-Smith) at Oakland (Gonzalez) -150
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) -153

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 11:39 AM

5/17 card in progress, 1 unit across the board

added plays italicized
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) u9 +111
Cleveland (Carmona) at Tampa Bay (Niemann) RL +109
Houston (Rodriguez) at Los Angeles (N) (Ely) -150
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) +128
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) u7.5 +104
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) u9.5 +110
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) u10.5 -114
Minnesota (Slowey) at Toronto (Eveland)+102
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) u9.5 -120
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) u8.5 +109
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) -142
Milwaukee (Gallardo) at Cincinnati (Cueto) +107
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) RL +109
San Francisco (Cain) at San Diego (Richard) +104
Seattle (Rowland-Smith) at Oakland (Gonzalez) -150
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) -153
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) u9 +111
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) u8.5 -105

JerseyShop101 · 05-17-10, 11:56 AM

We need to change this thread from the BIG card to the HUGE card, lol.

Only kidding.

Good luck today guys.

Thereber, On that other issue over at sportsforumpicks, I was using 7 days worth of stats only.

Vinny Vidivicci · 05-17-10, 12:03 PM

BEST OF 8 @ SITE SYSTEM (Monday, May 17) -

Philadelphia HF (2) -193 ........................ PASS (ODDS TOO HIGH)
Atlanta HF (4) -141 ............................... PLAY
Milwaukee AF (1) -106 .......................... PASS (Away Fave)
Florida HF (1) -139 ............................... PLAY
St. Louis HF (1) -150 ............................. PLAY
San Francisco AF (2) -106 ...................... PASS (Away Fave)
LA Dodgers HF (2) -149 ......................... PLAY
Detroit HF (3) -137 ............................... PLAY
Toronto HD (3) +1.5 Runs -155 ............. PLAY +1.5 Run-Line
Baltimore HF (3) -128 ........................... PLAY
NY Yankees HF (3) -185 ........................ PASS (ODDS TOO HIGH)
Texas HF (4) -152 ................................ PLAY
Oakland HF (1) -149 ............................. PLAY

A couple of these plays are on or slightly over my borderline -150 odds. Since the results on Home Favorites exceeds -1.50, I'm taking them. The number in parenthesis is the number of wins my team has more than their opponent in their last 8 games Home or Away.

I'm working on tabulating Units Won year-to-date.

Good Luck -

~Vinny Vidivicci

wagster71 · 05-17-10, 12:13 PM

SF (Cain) has already lost twice this year to SD (Richards). Outside of the fact that SD has OWNED SF this year and vegas wants us to believe that Richards can't beat Cain for a third time this year, I'm not sure why the Giants are favored?

JerseyShop101 · 05-17-10, 12:31 PM

These two met last week in a SD 5-2 win, and April 19th in a SD 3-2 win. I'm probably a sucker for this low total but I have to bite based on the fact that 10 starters and 12 batters overall in this matchup have had success against Cain/Richard.

San Fran/San Diego OVER 6 -115

jolmscheid · 05-17-10, 12:39 PM

Hey Vinny...do you think your system would work in other sports? LIke NBA ATS? Thanks for the info...can't wait to see the results

Vinny Vidivicci · 05-17-10, 12:53 PM

Maybe Hockey, because of the way the lines are; both Moneylines and +1.5 goal lines.

Football and Basketball - pointspread would confuse the issue, I think.

~ Vinny Vidivicci

therber2 · 05-17-10, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

We need to change this thread from the BIG card to the HUGE card, lol.

Only kidding.

Good luck today guys.

Thereber, On that other issue over at sportsforumpicks, I was using 7 days worth of stats only.

Yes, there is one HUGE mother fvcking card going here. I'm beginning to feel a bit lost, but I am rooting for all of you. Good luck today guys! I'll be in later to look into what you are all doing a bit further.

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by therber2

Yes, there is one HUGE mother fvcking card going here. I'm beginning to feel a bit lost, but I am rooting for all of you. Good luck today guys! I'll be in later to look into what you are all doing a bit further.

Yeah I got a little carried away with the updates, sorry about that.

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 02:04 PM

Hey veni, I'm glad to see most of our plays match!

Sorry everyone about cluttering the thread with all those damn updates. Not sure what I was thinking there -- won't happen again. I'm posting my final card right now and then I'm DONE.

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 02:06 PM

5/17 final card, 1 unit across the board

Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) -187
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) +128
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) -140
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) -140
Chicago (A) (Garcia) at Detroit (Porcello) -141
Arizona (Jackson) at Florida (Volstad) u9 +111
Cleveland (Carmona) at Tampa Bay (Niemann) RL +109
Houston (Rodriguez) at Los Angeles (N) (Ely) -150
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) +128
Colorado (Cook) at Chicago (N) (Wells) u7.5 +104
Los Angeles (A) (Kazmir) at Texas (Holland) u9.5 +110
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) u10.5 -114
Minnesota (Slowey) at Toronto (Eveland)+102
Boston (Matsuzaka) at New York (A) (Hughes) u9.5 -120
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) u8.5 +109
New York (N) (Pelfrey) at Atlanta (Lowe) -142
Milwaukee (Gallardo) at Cincinnati (Cueto) +107
Pittsburgh (Morton) at Philadelphia (Kendrick) RL +109
San Francisco (Cain) at San Diego (Richard) +104
Seattle (Rowland-Smith) at Oakland (Gonzalez) -150
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) -153
Kansas City (Davies) at Baltimore (Bergesen) u9 +111
Washington (Stammen) at St. Louis (Lohse) u8.5 -105

Vinny Vidivicci · 05-17-10, 02:32 PM

Sycoogit -

I just compared your picks and mine. You're right, the only game we're on opposite sides is Cleveland vs. Baltimore.

Good Luck -

~ Vinny Vidivicci

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Vinny Vidivicci

the only game we're on opposite sides is Cleveland vs. Baltimore

I'm sure you actually capped KC v BAL, but just making sure...

peterpan19 · 05-17-10, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by sycoogtit

veni, be careful what you tell peterpan. He might accuse you of stealing his system.

do you see that guy that stole it from the one site posting here anymore ?

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 03:05 PM

Yes

peterpan19 · 05-17-10, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by sycoogtit

Yes.

last time snap posted anything here was May 10th

btw link doenst work

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 03:12 PM

I know dude. I was suggesting that snap is now Bad_Cat, who started posting right when snap stopped, and has the same style and spelling errors as snap. Supposed to make you

Shouldn't have said anything, I've cluttered therb's thread enough today.

EDIT
That's weird that it links to a different page than the text says. Trying again.

alex123 · 05-17-10, 03:24 PM

Sycoogit,

Have you factored in the wind for the cards/nats game? i bet on the over...thanks

sycoogtit · 05-17-10, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by alex123

Sycoogit,

Have you factored in the wind for the cards/nats game? i bet on the over...thanks

Good grief that's a lot of wind. I hadn't even looked at it until I saw this. My pick was based solely on line movements.

Vinny Vidivicci · 05-17-10, 03:32 PM

Just finished crunching the year-to-date unit data. I used a "To Win" of $10 for a unit size.

Here it is -

Away Dogs +1.5 Runs .................. 25-11 .................. + $81.60
Home Dogs +1.5 Runs ................. 37-14 .................. + $193.20

Away Faves -Pick ML .................... 19-20 .................. - $85.80

I'm going to break-down Home Faves -

ALL Home Faves -Pick ML .......................... 77-46 .................. -25.10
Home Faves Under -150 ML ....................... 40-15 .................. +$228.00
Home Faves Over -150 ML ......................... 37-31 .................. -$253.10

I don't really know what to make of the disparity within Home Faves, but there are 3 borderline -150 Home Faves tonight.

St. Louis -149
LA Dodgers -149
Texas -152

I partially hedged my earlier bets at Matchbook on these teams by taking +1.5 Runs with Washington, Houston and LA Angels.

This is a work in progress.

Good Luck,

~ Vinny Vidivicci

peterpan19 · 05-17-10, 03:41 PM

vinny

looks pretty good

How do you determine the -150 juice ?, I use vegasinsider and look at it 30 to 15 min before the game starts and make the decision then, ight be a good idea.

Also it seems like if you faded the Home favs bigger than -150 you would have made some money, but I think over the long one its just goin to be plus/minus zero there.

Of special interest are the Away and Home Dogs and small Home favs that you payed on the RL (do you also use the 150 cutoff for the RL ?)

Also did you find some correlation between the number of wins a team has more than its opponent, like +4 teams are doing much better than +1 ?

Looks really prmoising

Keep it up

Vinny Vidivicci · 05-17-10, 03:47 PM

To give you a quick partial answer (because I'm on my way out the door right now) -

I copy and paste Heritages lines and used that on a spreadsheet for record keeping.

Yesterday, I kind of guessed that -150 was a good place to stop, because I don't like to lay more than -150, and the numbers seem to support it; at least for Home Faves.

I'll be back later.

~Vinny Vidivicci

JerseyShop101 · 05-17-10, 03:53 PM

Therber2,

Here's Minn/Tor, no time to sort the starters in order though...

Good luck today.

Attached Files

therber2 · 05-17-10, 04:26 PM

5/17

Originally posted by therber2

SEA/OAK under8 -115 (4 units)
NYM/ATL over8.5 -110 (4 units)
KC/BAL under9 EV (4 units)
SFO over6 -115 (3 units)
Marlins -145 (5 units)

Thanks for the breakdown above Jersey.

therber2 · 05-17-10, 09:16 PM

NBA Alert: Phoenix Suns +2 2nd Half (10 units)

Vinny Vidivicci · 05-17-10, 10:29 PM

Peterpan19 -

To answer your questions from post #590 -

As I mentioned above, I hate to lay more than -150 on a Fave. They have to play .600 ball for you to break-even over the long haul. And how many .600 teams are there by the end of the year?

I've always LOVED betting dogs because you only need to hit 50% to win $$$. But then, after looking at what the +1.5 run did to my Away and Home Dog's records, I don't really mind laying sub -1.50 juice for +1.5 runs here. It gives your dogs 2 way to win, and the records support it. What I'm saying is - I think I'd rather lay -1.50 on a Dog and get +1.5 runs then lay -1.50 on a small Fave.

Although my database for lines and final scores was based on a webpage from Heritage that I copied and pasted into Excel, I now only bet at MatchBook; they have the best prices anywhere.

Good question regarding how teams do as their margins of excess wins increases. I am tracking that too. The numbers are too small this early in the season to determine much from them as the difference in wins between the 2 teams increases. So far -
Largest Away Dog disparity was 5 games and it is 0-1 SU (1-0 with RL).
Largest Home Dog disparity is also 5 games 1-2 SU (3-0 with RL).
Largest Away Fave disparity is also 5 games 0-2 SU.
Largest Home Fave disparity is 6 games 1-0 SU; BUT, at a disparity of 5 games it is only 3-4 SU.

I'll keep an eye on it.

~Vinny Vidivicci