The Big Card

[therber2]

pretty sure I got those wrong I'll correct them later on.

[peterpan19]

[quote=therber2;4710263]I have found that each of the following situations are yielding 64% plus results.
2010 Season

Situation 1:

Situation is to determine what happens game 3 after the Dog (for game 3) has lost game 1 and won game 2. The SDQL query is:
series game=3 and p:W and pp:L and D
Record for this is 16 wins for the Dog out of 25 situations for 2010 season.
64% WIN RATE
**Note it makes a huge difference that it is the second game of the series won
ie. series game=3 and p:L and pp:W and F (favorite) only hits at 36%. This is due to a loss of momentum

Situation 2:

Situation is to determine what happens game 3 after the Favorite (for game 3) has lost game 1 and won game 2. The SDQL query is:
series game=3 and p:W and pp:L and F
Record for this is 16 wins for the Favorite out of 25 situations for 2010 season.
64% WIN RATE (weird that it happens to be exactly the same but I checked it; someone may want to dbl check).

Situation 3:

Situation is to determine what happens game 2 after the Favorite (for game 2) has lost game 1 (as a favorite). The SDQL query is:
series game=2 and p:FL and F
Record for this is 15 wins for the Favorite out if 26 situations for the 2010 season.
57.69% WIN RATE (losses usually occur when the favorite is <.500 I think, but haven't thouroly checked this.

a few more queries I'd like to try from here would be:
series game=2 and p:L and F
series game=2 and p:HL and F
series game=2 and p:FL and H
etc.

Statfox, covers, and all those guys do trends a lot; not a big fan in general as they aren't always logical IMO; however, I found this extensive archive of profitable queries if anyone is interested: quote]

for the first situation I get a reacord of 30-27 using your SDQL query ? and a profit of +13.85 units and a ROI of +24.3 %
For 2009 I get 89-86 +29.05 units +16.6%
For 2008 68-88 +0.7 units +0.4% and for 2006 and 2007 almost the same
for 2005 77-81 +24.45 units +15.5%
2004 is +17 units
combined since 2004 it is 477-545 +89.6 units +8.8% ROI

situation 2:
since 2004 it is 599-485 -102.35 units
for 2010 I get 20-13 +2.55 units, but most years it is loosing money

situation 3:
since 2004 it is 899-617 around 20 units down
eg yesterday win on Angels and loss on Rays

series game=2 and p:L and F
since 2004 -50 units, this year plus minus zero

series game=2 and p:HL and F
since 2004 +14 units, this year plus minus zero

series game=2 and p:FL and H
since 2004 +50 units, this year -2.16 units

So the only profitable one seems to be situation 1 from what I can see so far

INteresting sweep stat:
Team at home avoiding a 3 game sweep is 522-437 +40 units with a profit in every year, so far we are down -5 units, so keep and eye on it.


GL

[peterpan19]

I'm going to hit the hay pretty late here now, but for tomorrow consider this 1. (series game=2 and p:FL and F) goes 16-8

2. series game=2 and p:FL and F
Record for this is 15 -8

3. series game=3 and p:FL and pp:FL and F
14-10

4. series game=3 and p:FL and pp: DW and D
9 - 17

5. series game=3 and p:FL and pp:FW and F
11- 12

1 is 36-28 -5.21 units
2 is the same as 1?
3 is 10-8 -3 units
4 is 2-1 +1.1 units
5 is 18-17 minus 10.65 units BUT playing against it meaning the Dog in game 3 when dog lost game 1 and won game 2 is +7.85 units and 307-273 since 2004 and +83.1 units thats a 14.3 ROI today would be CLE and PIT and only the Away dogs are up 70 unit for a 15.8 ROI

[peterpan19]

series game=3 and p:W and pp:L and D
we got CLE and PIT today

series game=3 and pW and ppL and D
we got CLE and PIT today

now the only difference between the 2 is that the first one is more general and the second one is more specific, now if you analyze the other specific ones meaning series game=3 and pW and pp:FL and D; series game=3 and p:FW and ppL and D; series game=3 and p:FW and pp:FL and D
basicly FW/FL, DW/FL and DW/FL you will see that only FW/FL is making money
which now leads me to belive that the general query is not the best but that series game=3 and p:FW and pp:FL and D AND series game=3 and pW and ppL and D bring the best results, where you dont have games that match each other
Last 3 years combined you would have made around 44.2 units, which is nice but still not that great

Now you could even break it further down in month to see if there was a really bad month every year or so, I was hoping for Sept or April to find something, but I didnt for the years

[therber2]

New experiment today

A. series game=2 and p:FW and F (60.9%) 2010
From 2004 season to 2010 current record = 1261-771 (62.05%)
(team won game one as favorite; is favorite again)

Brewers over Astros
Cubs over Dodgers
Giants over Nationals
Rockies over Diamonback
Rangers over Royals

B. series game=2 and p:FL and F (56.2%) 2010
From 2004 season to 2010 current record = 899-617 (59.3%)
(team lost game one as favorite; is favorite again)

Phillies over Mets
Cardinals over Padres

C. series games=3 and series game=3 and p:FL and pp:FW and F (54.8%) 2010
(game 3; team as favorite lost game 1; team as favorite won game 2; is favorite)
From 2004 season to 2010 current record = 899-617 (59.3%)
Angels over Blue Jays

D. series game=3 and p:FL and pp:FW and F (47.8%) 2010
(game 3; team as favorite won game 1; team as favorite lose game 2; is favorite)

White Sox over Indians (fade)
Reds over Pirates (fade)

E. series game=2 and p:FL and D (52.9%) 2010
From 2004 season to 2010 current record = 229-242 (48.6%)

Detroit over Seattle
Oakland over Baltimore

F. series game=3 and p:FL and pp:FL and F (55.6%) 2010
From 2004 season to 2010 current record = 268-176 (60.3%)

Tampa over Boston

misc.
series game=3 and p:FW and D (ATL/FLA) too erratic

[therber2]

Peterpan thats some good stuff. So you obviously know how to return data past 2010..why is it that when I type in the above queries all I get is 2010 results? Do you know I can return all data from 2007 season to present for say series game=2 and p:FL and F

[therber2]

Anyways for the experimental picks for today produce in roughly 2.5 minutes compared to an average capping time of 3+ hours are: (refer to post #775 for the answer to how these were derived).

A.
Brewers over Astros
Cubs over Dodgers
Giants over Nationals
Rockies over Diamondbacks
Rangers over Royals
B.
Phillies over Mets
Cardinals over Padres
C.
Angels over Blue Jays sweep series
D.
Indians over White Sox (fade) sweep series
Pirates over Reds (fade)
E.
Detroit over Seattle
Oakland over Baltimore
F.
Tampa over Boston

[therber2]

anyone know who the current previously swept teams are? Maybe there is a query for this? Right now I know we are dealing with White Sox, Toronto, and Boston as teams wanting to win their series (Boston already won its series vs. Tampa (impressive defeat; Tampa is probably a play for today).

[therber2]

All those 's mean : D your have to put a space peter or this forum reads it as the smiley.

[therber2]

Anyways for the experimental picks for today produce in roughly 2.5 minutes compared to an average capping time of 3+ hours are: (refer to post #775 for the answer to how these were derived).

A.
Brewers over Astros
Cubs over Dodgers
Giants over Nationals
Rockies over Diamondbacks
Rangers over Royals
B.
Phillies over Mets
Cardinals over Padres
C.
Angels over Blue Jays sweep series
D.
Indians over White Sox (fade)
Pirates over Reds (fade)

This leaves us with:
OAK/BAL *BAL won as Dogs Now Favorite
series game=2 and p: DW and FTAM/BOS *Tampa lost twice as Favorites now Favorites
series game=3 and p:FL and pp:FL and F 14-10 DET/SEA Seattle won as dogs and now F
series game=2 and p: DW and F

ATL/FLA *Fla won game1 as favorite now dog
series game=3 and p:FW and D

[peterpan19]

Peterpan thats some good stuff. So you obviously know how to return data past 2010..why is it that when I type in the above queries all I get is 2010 results? Do you know I can return all data from 2007 season to present for say series game=2 and p:FL and F

I used sportsdatabase and the query for seasons is "And season=2010" you can use a comma to add more like "And season=2010,2009" and so on

hope that heldps

BOL

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thurber -
I don't understand the Algebra above. Do any of these trends apply to any games today?

No rush - Pour yourself a coffee before you answer.

~ VV

EDIT - Nevermind; I guess I should hit the "refresh" button before I post.

[Panekkkk]

Therber and pan,

Don't forget to take SERIES GAMES (with an 's' into account) . It usually makes a difference whether its a 4-game or 3-game series.

SG=3 and SGS=3 or
SG=3 and SGS=4 etc.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Can you believe? - Buehrle was ejected in a 0-0 game in the 3rd inning today!!

The count on the batter was 0-1, with 1 out and a man on first, bottom of 3rd.

~ VV

[Panekkkk]

Just gotta take trends and play around with them a bit and ensure they are profitable each year...

Doesn't always guarantee prospective success though

[therber2]

Therber and pan,

Don't forget to take SERIES GAMES (with an 's' into account) . It usually makes a difference whether its a 4-game or 3-game series.

SG=3 and SGS=3 or
SG=3 and SGS=4 etc.

Nice! Thanks for that. Debating whether or not it would be a revision or not. I'll look into it.

[therber2]

Thurber -
I don't understand the Algebra above. Do any of these trends apply to any games today?

No rush - Pour yourself a coffee before you answer.

~ VV

EDIT - Nevermind; I guess I should hit the "refresh" button before I post.

As a matter of fact I am getting some coffee now. Will be back in a few to work on pans SDQL revision and panikk's

[therber2]

I used sportsdatabase and the query for seasons is "And season=2010" you can use a comma to add more like "And season=2010,2009" and so on

hope that heldps

BOL

Therber and pan,

Don't forget to take SERIES GAMES (with an 's' into account) . It usually makes a difference whether its a 4-game or 3-game series.

SG=3 and SGS=3 or
SG=3 and SGS=4 etc.

Thanks guys for the help! Saved me a bunch of time. Ten points to anyone who can figure out the query for a team swept now playing the team again for another 3 game series (home, away, favorite, doesn't matter). You guys probably know the silly JM system right? Basically a query for that. No, its not silly; actually has a lot of bearing on things.

This is a factor I take into account but I don't like having to keep a log or fish it out of the JM thread. I think that it definately does matter though. Don't play the system, but I don't like to play against it.

[therber2]

Can you believe? - Buehrle was ejected in a 0-0 game in the 3rd inning today!!

The count on the batter was 0-1, with 1 out and a man on first, bottom of 3rd.

~ VV

Wasn't watching Vinny. Why'd he get the boot?

Any plays today? Let's keep the window 8 going and get that right.

[peterpan19]

Therber and pan,

Don't forget to take SERIES GAMES (with an 's' into account) . It usually makes a difference whether its a 4-game or 3-game series.

SG=3 and SGS=3 or
SG=3 and SGS=4 etc.

whats the difference ?

SG is the No. 3 game in a series
SGS is any third 3 , which is even better when using series games=3 and pW and ppL and D -> 90 units since 2004, but for this year it is not that good, down 9 units

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Window-8 System -

I just now finished it. From now on, on a daily basis I'm going to post records from the previous day and today's picks. On a weekly basis I'll do a weekly and year-to-date tally. I'm working on re-categorizing my labeling system. It's hard to explain, but there are situations that occur where my old labeling system is not adequate; i.e. there are variations within the old labeling system. I'm working on it, but we'll probably need a translator to explain the variations here. To summarize it, there are variations within my labeling system that "carry the weight" for a play; and other variations within a label that have no value. At least the year-to-date records are 50-50ish on some of these variations. I'd explain it and ask Sycoogit to do graphs of it but we'd probably go blind trying to read the graphs.

Tuesday, May 25th (5-3, up about 1 unit)

Wednesday, May 26th -

Kansas City +1.5 Runs
Angels -131 Moneyline
Baltimore -111 Moneyline
Florida +1.5 Runs
Dodgers +1.5 Runs

~Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Anyways for the experimental picks for today produce in roughly 2.5 minutes compared to an average capping time of 3+ hours are: (refer to post #775 for the answer to how these were derived).

A.
Brewers over Astros
Cubs over Dodgers
Giants over Nationals
Rockies over Diamondbacks
Rangers over Royals
B.
Phillies over Mets
Cardinals over Padres
C.
Angels over Blue Jays sweep series
D.
Indians over White Sox (fade) sweep series
Pirates over Reds (fade)
E.
Detroit over Seattle
Oakland over Baltimore
F.
Tampa over Boston

Breaking this down further I think the best plays of the bunch here are going to be:
Tampa over Boston (3 units)
Phillies over NYM (3 units)
Brewers over Houston (3 units)
Rockies over Arizona (3 units)
Giants over Nationals (3 units)

[therber2]

Window-8 System -

I just now finished it. From now on, on a daily basis I'm going to post records from the previous day and today's picks. On a weekly basis I'll do a weekly and year-to-date tally. I'm working on re-categorizing my labeling system. It's hard to explain, but there are situations that occur where my old labeling system is not adequate; i.e. there are variations within the old labeling system. I'm working on it, but we'll probably need a translator to explain the variations here. To summarize it, there are variations within my labeling system that "carry the weight" for a play; and other variations within a label that have no value. At least the year-to-date records are 50-50ish on some of these variations. I'd explain it and ask Sycoogit to do graphs of it but we'd probably go blind trying to read the graphs.

Tuesday, May 25th (5-3, up about a 1 unit)

Wednesday, May 26th -

Kansas City +1.5 Runs
Angels -131 Moneyline
Baltimore -111 Moneyline
Florida +1.5 Runs
Dodgers +1.5 Runs

~Vinny Vidivicci

Thanks Vinny, I could see this card doing well. I am liking a lot of the bets. Had leans on the other sides based on the new system but traditional capping filter them out cause I like these guys above...well most of them.

[therber2]

Not so big card 5/26

Tampa -150 (8 units)
Phillies -110 (12 units)
Brewers -110 (1 units)
Rockies -230 (2 units)
Giants -260 (4 units)

leans:
Cubs over Dodgers
Rangers over Royals
Cardinals over Padres
Angels over Blue Jays sweep series
Indians over White Sox (fade) sweep series
Pirates over Reds (fade)
Detroit over Seattle
Oakland over Baltimore

[Cougsky17]

Breaking this down further I think the best plays of the bunch here are going to be:
Tampa over Boston (3 units)
Phillies over NYM (3 units)
Brewers over Houston (3 units)
Rockies over Arizona (3 units)
Giants over Nationals (3 units)

Solid picks, definitely agree with all of those. I also like Atlanta and the under for Seattle/Det(7.5) and SF/Wash(7)

[Cougar Bait]

GL tonight therbs, we're on opposite sides of that Cubs game

[JerseyShop101]

What the hell is wrong with Philly? Scored in only 1 inning out of their last 29 (3.4%) coming into tonight, And being shutout tonight- thats 1 out of 38 now (2.6%).

Giants with the huge -260 chalk, have only scored in 2 innings out of their last 38 (5.3%).

[therber2]

Real bullshit day. Thanks for poppin in guys nice to see both of you. I'm still pretty confident in the new approach and I'll give it a few more runs; we'll see how goes. Today's disaster makes me feel like some filters should be applied or something, but I can't tell after one day.

[therber2]

GL tonight therbs, we're on opposite sides of that Cubs game

Thanks Coug. Well this is how it goes with me betting the Cubs. I am extremely reluctant to ever bet against them unless I really really think it is a good bet worth taking. about 80% of the time I will lose that. When I decide that I do want to bet my Cubbies I'll lose that too, but not always my fault. Betting the Cubs the odds are against you right off the bat.

[therber2]

What the hell is wrong with Philly? Scored in only 1 inning out of their last 29 (3.4%) coming into tonight, And being shutout tonight- thats 1 out of 38 now (2.6%).

Giants with the huge -260 chalk, have only scored in 2 innings out of their last 38 (5.3%).

So what does this mean to you Jersey? Would you say it means they are due to score more based on their season average, or they will continue the slump. Could go either way.

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Window-8 System -

Wednesday, May 26th -

Kansas City +1.5 Runs WON
Angels -131 Moneyline WON
Baltimore -111 Moneyline LOST
Florida +1.5 Runs LOST
Dodgers +1.5 Runs WON

Thursday, May 27th -

LA Dodgers +1.5 Runs
Colorado +1.5 Runs
Baltimore +1.5 Runs

Good Luck -

~Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

Nice job vinny!

[therber2]

Dodgers over Cubs
Rays over White Sox
Oakland over Baltimore
Reds over Pirates
Phillies over Mets

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Thanks Therber -

Check your e-mail.

~ VV

[therber2]

Got it.