The Big Card

[JerseyShop101]

So what does this mean to you Jersey? Would you say it means they are due to score more based on their season average, or they will continue the slump. Could go either way.

I'm fading the slumping teams, til they show signs of life.

Not being lazy (copy pasting from thread I made earlier):


Going into Wednesday night the 3 lowest RunScoringInnings teams were:

Phillies (26-19) - had scored in only 1 inning of their last 29 innings (3.4%) in which they have batted in. They get shutout and have now only scored in 1 inning of their last 38 (2.6%).

San Francisco Giants (23-22) - Huge -245 favorite, had scored in only 2 innings out of their last 38 (5.3%). They score single runs in 3 separate innings in an upset loss to Washington. They have now still only scored in 5 of their last 47 innings (10.6%).

Pittsburgh Pirates (20-27) - Had scored in only 8 of their last 56 innings (14.2%), they get shutout by Cincinnati. They have now only scored in 8 of their last 65 innings (12.3%).

Thursday Plays:

Mets +110 vs. Phillies
Nationals +160 vs. Giants
Reds -184 vs. Pirates

I just added:

Relooking the stats, the Cardinals have only scored in 1 inning of their last 22 innings in which they batted in (4.5%), and are also 4 for their last 32 (12.5%).

Adding STL to Thursday's "Fade the Teams in a Scoring Slump":
SD -114

Looking at the Phillies again, they are not only 1 for their last 38 (2.6%), but are also 9 for their last 70 (12.9%)!

(MLB season average for Scored Innings is 27.5%)

[therber2]

Window-8 System -

Wednesday, May 26th -

Kansas City +1.5 Runs WON
Angels -131 Moneyline WON
Baltimore -111 Moneyline LOST
Florida +1.5 Runs LOST
Dodgers +1.5 Runs WON

Thursday, May 27th -

LA Dodgers +1.5 Runs
Colorado +1.5 Runs
Baltimore +1.5 Runs

Good Luck -

~Vinny Vidivicci

Looking good so far today Vinny

[therber2]

I'm fading the slumping teams, til they show signs of life.

Not being lazy (copy pasting from thread I made earlier):


Going into Wednesday night the 3 lowest RunScoringInnings teams were:

Phillies (26-19) - had scored in only 1 inning of their last 29 innings (3.4%) in which they have batted in. They get shutout and have now only scored in 1 inning of their last 38 (2.6%).

San Francisco Giants (23-22) - Huge -245 favorite, had scored in only 2 innings out of their last 38 (5.3%). They score single runs in 3 separate innings in an upset loss to Washington. They have now still only scored in 5 of their last 47 innings (10.6%).

Pittsburgh Pirates (20-27) - Had scored in only 8 of their last 56 innings (14.2%), they get shutout by Cincinnati. They have now only scored in 8 of their last 65 innings (12.3%).

Thursday Plays:

Mets +110 vs. Phillies
Nationals +160 vs. Giants
Reds -184 vs. Pirates

I just added:

Relooking the stats, the Cardinals have only scored in 1 inning of their last 22 innings in which they batted in (4.5%), and are also 4 for their last 32 (12.5%).

Adding STL to Thursday's "Fade the Teams in a Scoring Slump":
SD -114

Looking at the Phillies again, they are not only 1 for their last 38 (2.6%), but are also 9 for their last 70 (12.9%)!

(MLB season average for Scored Innings is 27.5%)

Hey there Jersey!

Always full of solid ideas aren't cha.

I like your read on today's games. Trying to get a new interesting feature on cleanuphitter right now with Steve. Plays kind of half assed today and yesterday. Pretty busy.

Vinny's got some nice tricks up his sleeve right now that we are working on. Vinny will let you know soon if I'll be able to get you those logs.

Also lost a fine gentleman, sycoogtit. Just sort of left; hope to see you back sometime sycoog. If not good luck with stuff pal.

~therbs

[therber2]

Just gotta take trends and play around with them a bit and ensure they are profitable each year...

Doesn't always guarantee prospective success though

Panekkkk what does the o in o:WP<46 mean? o:

[therber2]

5/28 leans

pythaginn leans:

OAK +105
CLE +240
CUB +124
CIN -122
TOR -179
PHI +118
KC +182
PIT +160
CWS +193
NYM +104
MIN -123
LOS +143
LAA +102
WAS +138
SFO -140

Note: This is going where the expectation is showing value meaning exp.>act.

[therber2]

FilteredWP

Filter #1 1 unit

CUB +124
CIN -122
TOR -179
LAA +102
SFO -140
MIN -123

[therber2]

FilteredCH

Filter #2 1 unit

oak +105
cin -122
tor -179
phi +118
tex +120
los +143
sfo -140

[therber2]

Best Bets

CIN -122 (3 units)
TOR -179 (3 units)
SFO -140 (4 units)
NYM +104 (.5 units)
MIN -122 (.5 units)

[oda11]

BOL therrr!

[JerseyShop101]

Hey there Jersey!

Always full of solid ideas aren't cha.

I like your read on today's games. Trying to get a new interesting feature on cleanuphitter right now with Steve. Plays kind of half assed today and yesterday. Pretty busy.

Vinny's got some nice tricks up his sleeve right now that we are working on. Vinny will let you know soon if I'll be able to get you those logs.

Also lost a fine gentleman, sycoogtit. Just sort of left; hope to see you back sometime sycoog. If not good luck with stuff pal.

~therbs

I try, lol.

Split today 2-2 -0.04.

Phils have now scored:

1 out of their last 47 innings (2.1%)
9 out of their last 79 innings (11.3%)

Right above them is the Pirates who have scored in only 10 out of their last 74 innings (13.5%).

Fading them again on Friday.

FLA -124
ATL -170

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Window-8 System

Thursday, May 27th -

LA Dodgers +1.5 Runs WON
Colorado +1.5 Runs WON
Baltimore +1.5 Runs LOST

Friday, May 28th -

Cubs +1.5 Runs
Cincinnati -115 Moneyline
Florida -117 Moneyline
Washington +1.5 Runs
LA Angels +1.5 Runs

Good Luck

~ Vinny Vidivicci

[therber2]

I try, lol.

Split today 2-2 -0.04.

Phils have now scored:

1 out of their last 47 innings (2.1%)
9 out of their last 79 innings (11.3%)

Right above them is the Pirates who have scored in only 10 out of their last 74 innings (13.5%).

Fading them again on Friday.

FLA -124
ATL -170

Hey There pal. I like this idea never thought to look at this angle; however, my hunch is that it would work the opposite way. I would be taking the side that the law of averages favors here; however, I never play that angle right. Never ever do haha. Working on it. I like Volstad and the Pirates are real real bad. BOL with both of these.

Are you working in another thread somewhere Jersey or just hoppin around? Always interested to see what you are up to.

[therber2]

Window-8 System

Thursday, May 27th -

LA Dodgers +1.5 Runs WON
Colorado +1.5 Runs WON
Baltimore +1.5 Runs LOST

Friday, May 28th -

Cubs +1.5 Runs
Cincinnati -115 Moneyline
Florida -117 Moneyline
Washington +1.5 Runs
LA Angels +1.5 Runs

Good Luck

~ Vinny Vidivicci

Nice work Vinny.

Alright well I see we are both on (oh and CougarBait is on em too.)

CINCI

and you and Jersey both like

FLA

[Vinny Vidivicci]

Florida just got swept by Atlanta and Philly just got swept by the Mets. Who is going to end the drought here? Might be a good UNDER - or not.

I'm not crazy about Florida, but the system picked them.

~ VV

[therber2]

Florida just got swept by Atlanta and Philly just got swept by the Mets. Who is going to end the drought here? Might be a good UNDER - or not.

I'm not crazy about Florida, but the system picked them.

~ VV

Aw $hit forgot about sweeps. Today Toronto is playing Balti who they previously swept some a little less on that Toronto play. Still though; the Orioles are at the bottom of the food chain. Cinci is playing Houston (low on the food chain as well) who was previously swept. I will account for both of these.

Vinny, FLA won the first game against ATL. No sweep. Yes, the Phillies were just swept by the Mets and now up against FLA.

Thanks for bringing this up. Did you get my email?

[therber2]

BOL therrr!

Thanks oda. How do you always stay so cool?

[oda11]

Takes time and practice buddy, LOL!

[Vinny Vidivicci]

You're right about Florida; my mistake.

~ VV

[Panekkkk]

Panekkkk what does the o in o:WP<46 mean? o:

Sorry, took a bit to get back to ya

o = opponent

so it means that the opponent's win percentage (WP) is less than 46 (0.460)

[Panekkkk]

Thanks guys for the help! Saved me a bunch of time. Ten points to anyone who can figure out the query for a team swept now playing the team again for another 3 game series (home, away, favorite, doesn't matter). You guys probably know the silly JM system right? Basically a query for that. No, its not silly; actually has a lot of bearing on things.

This is a factor I take into account but I don't like having to keep a log or fish it out of the JM thread. I think that it definately does matter though. Don't play the system, but I don't like to play against it.

P:L and PP:L and PPP:L and P:SG=3 and P:SGS=3 and P:season=season and SGS=3

... is the query for what you've described above. This is regardless of site or favorite status. This query would return the result for series game=1 of a 3-game series. It assumes that the last series, in which the team was swept, was a 3-game series. The capital 'P' stands for 'previous matchup' which means the last game the two teams met whereas using a lowercase 'p' just refers to a team's last game, regardless of who the opponent was.

[Panekkkk]

whats the difference ?

SG is the No. 3 game in a series
SGS is any third 3 , which is even better when using series games=3 and pW and ppL and D -> 90 units since 2004, but for this year it is not that good, down 9 units

You have it a bit confused... SGS=3 simply means a 3-game series. SG refers to the actually game # within a series.

So "SG=2 and SGS=3" means game 2 of a 3-game series
"SG=2 and SGS=4" means game 2 of a 4-game series

If you just type SG=2 without taking into account SGS, then you get all 2nd games of a series, which could be part of a 2, 3, 4 or even 5-game series. The # of series games usually has a large impact on the results.

[therber2]

Sorry, took a bit to get back to ya

o = opponent

so it means that the opponent's win percentage (WP) is less than 46 (0.460)

Awesome!

P:L and PP:L and PPP:L and P:SG=3 and P:SGS=3 and P:season=season and SGS=3

... is the query for what you've described above. This is regardless of site or favorite status. This query would return the result for series game=1 of a 3-game series. It assumes that the last series, in which the team was swept, was a 3-game series. The capital 'P' stands for 'previous matchup' which means the last game the two teams met whereas using a lowercase 'p' just refers to a team's last game, regardless of who the opponent was.

And the winner is Panekkkk. Thanks brutha. That saves me some time as I have decided that these will be important filters for my picks.

[therber2]

Well today I fought the fight, and put some folks in the place where they have needed to be. Karma straightens everything out; I always have faith in that. Thanks to all for your messages of support. Turning in for the day. With bets lookin' good here, and eh.. not so good in some other places.

On to bigger and better things. It appears that Mr. Vinny and I could be onto something. Vinny if you'll notice, some filters were applied with codes for myself. If they prove useful I'll fill you in. Today the filter I openly applied was the prev. sweep filter. Special thanks to Panekkkk for the query line to save me some time.

Turns out sometimes a team just has another teams number and they beat them all year long. Maybe that is what happened today. Still though I think the sweep filter/adjustment is essential.

I'll be doing this for a long time for those interested; some of you asked. Next season I am going to make an effort to consolidate picks more than I did here this season. Picks are always free, and there is no bull$hit. I'll be here at SBR as it has been a great place to talk freely without any worries of big brother knockin on your door. Never go tout folks always remember that. I get asked this question repeatedly by family and friends "why aren't you charging." Greed ain't in mah blood. Someone smack me over the head with this statement is I ever do years from now; smack me as hard as you fvcking can.

[therber2]

pythaginn leans:

OAK +105
CLE +240
CUB +124
CIN -122
TOR -179
PHI +118
KC +182
PIT +160
CWS +193
NYM +104
MIN -123
LOS +143
LAA +102
WAS +138
SFO -140

Note: This is going where the expectation is showing value meaning exp.>act.

10-5 (66.6%) on the leans

[therber2]

Filter #1 1 unitCUB +124
CIN -122
TOR -179
LAA +102
SFO -140
MIN -123

Filter #1 goes 4-2 (66.66%) adding 2 units

Filter #2 1 unit

oak +105
cin -122
tor -179
phi +118
tex +120
los +143
sfo -140

Filter 2 goes 6-1 (85.7%) adding 5.66 units

[therber2]

CIN -122 (3 units)
TOR -179 (3 units)
SFO -140 (4 units)
NYM +104 (.5 units)
MIN -122 (.5 units)

Best bets go 4-1 (80%) adding 10 units

Not a bad day at all. Cleaned out the trash and made it all back. Ain't looking too bad Vinny. I'm going to run it for tomorrow see what we get.

[therber2]

Just a bump. Something that served me well before:

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*)."

[therber2]

Panekkkk do you think that the above^ could be queried?

[therber2]

5/29

Leans:

STL +125
NYM +117
ATL -196
HOU +165
FLA +116
COL -130
WAS +152
SFO -152
TOR -180
CLE +270
SEA +183
TEX +127
OAK +123
TAM -136
BOS -134

[mebaran]

Just a bump. Something that served me well before:

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)."

Which game was this on? I was keeping tabs with this one, but I lost track.

[therber2]

Oh no game; I just brought it back since it is IMO the most logical trend I've seen on statfox. Rd 2 picks coming up...

[mebaran]

Just a bump. Something that served me well before:

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)."

I meant which game this season did the +1 unit come from? Thanks.

[therber2]

1st Round

Filter1wp:

ATL -196
SDG -162
COL -130
SFO -152
TOR -180
DET -117
TAM -136
BOS -134


Filter 2:

STL +125
NYM +117
ATL -196
SDG -162
TOR -180
TEX +127
OAK +123
TAM -136
BOS -134
LOS +120
SFO -152

Close cut for filters 1 and 2 and a JM [b] bet
HOU +165 +1.5

1 unit each

[therber2]

I meant which game this season did the +1 unit come from? Thanks.

Ah gotcha. Well I should take that record out actually since I posted that early in the season. Would be interested to see how that situation is doing at this point. I don't know which game that was; it was way back.

[mebaran]

Well, my records indicate that there were no plays from 4/25 to 5/11. That's all I have. But I'll start being more diligent and looking for them as I, too, think this is a great trend. If I end up finding one that fit's these parameters, I'll be more than happy to post it here. (Realistically, even if this trend only hits 65% long term, it'll still be profitable because of the small amount of juice).