The Big Card

[therber2]

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)."

Just bumping this again if you all don't mind. It is a good note to have around.

We have some interesting news from Mr. Steve at cleanuphitter; for now though mebaran, let's you and me get those new sheets for tomorrow's action.

[therber2]

I still waiting for whole game UNDER thought. I only have 1unit on UNDER whole game, as I afraid the bullpens screw things up like the thing we discussed this morning.
BOL therber2, great job and great thread my friend

Again, glad you cashed de; from my experience you can take bullpen into as much account as you can the starting pitchers. Don't be afraid to bet the whole game; more importantly...WHATEVER WORKS.

1-0 (+335)

no picks until monday. good luck tomorrow fellas.

Believe me JE, I'm keeping a look out for those plays on Monday.

[TodaysAction]

Tom,

Despite the past and what you think, please consider that range thing you have going here - it needs to be reduced or you're going to produce false positives. Something you don't want or those that are going to be like the three mice. Hate me if you must, but I'm only trying to help you with this.

Terry

[mebaran]

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B4gHEmaWvcw8Y2VlY2U0MjgtZWY5Ni00MTliLTg4YTAtOWM1ZmU3ZjU1NmNj&sort=name&layout=list&num=50/

[mebaran]

I still can't embed a jpeg on here for some reason. I screen captured, uploaded to google, shared with everyone, and copied url...but it will not post here. What link are you using for your therber2?

[therber2]

For 4/25

Notice some of the guys down the list are hot right now.

[therber2]

Tom,

Despite the past and what you think, please consider that range thing you have going here - it needs to be reduced or you're going to produce false positives. Something you don't want or those that are going to be like the three mice. Hate me if you must, but I'm only trying to help you with this.

Terry

I don't hate you Terry; you just underestimated me, and did what I truly thought was an unfriendly thing. I suppose we could call a truce though if you are sorry about it

Thanks for the thought. Foghorn brought this up too, and I was already considering it. Read back a few pages. We are working on a solution thanks to a few good friends. Should say though, and you probably know this: these picks take these charts only into partial weight. They just produce a very slight lean to start off or check back.

This thread is mostly about idea generation, and you are very welcome to contribute your insights on a daily basis if you want or just pop in and out. I've learned a lot from these guys in a short amount of time. Trying to decipher a capper's pattern though is too slow for me, and IMO will produce false positives for most following.

**Disclaimer to all here (again). These are recreational picks; I guarantee nothing except for the fact that I am going to open about what I am thinking. I don't want anyone following my picks unless they agree with the pick themselves. If you played the whole card today or any other day you did the wrong thing.

BOL to all for tomorrow.

[mebaran]

*Note on my list, "Last 15 Percentage" is a teams pitching consistency percentage for the last 15 days (this should capture about the last 3 series, give or take. I'm happy with this)

[therber2]

I still can't embed a jpeg on here for some reason. I screen captured, uploaded to google, shared with everyone, and copied url...but it will not post here. What link are you using for your therber2?

Mebaran; I have photoshop to do a screen capture and then just attach it to a post. We are going to either figure out a way to just track last 7 games or not post this at all. Terry, was right there about how this will very soon become more irrelevant. As for last # of games, I am just throwing 7 out there. Anywhere from 7 - 20 though I have no idea. This will be a dry run or take plays at your own risk. May have something good worked out soon though. Patience.

[therber2]

*Note on my list, "Last 15 Percentage" is a teams pitching consistency percentage for the last 15 days (this should capture about the last 3 series, give or take. I'm happy with this)

That looks great. Could I see the actual spreadsheet. I am guessing you are using the moving average formula? Great work!

That is a good move by the way sorting the list now by the recent.

[TodaysAction]

Tom,

Despite the past and what you think, please consider that range thing you have going here - it needs to be reduced or you're going to produce false positives. Something you don't want or those that are going to be like the three mice. Hate me if you must, but I'm only trying to help you with this.

Terry

I don't hate you Terry; you just underestimated me, and did what I truly thought was an unfriendly thing. I suppose we could call a truce though if you are sorry about it

Thanks for the thought. Foghorn brought this up too, and I was already considering it. Read back a few pages. We are working on a solution thanks to a few good friends.

What I really should say is that this thread is about idea generation, and you are very welcome to contribute your insights on a daily basis if you want or just pop in and out. I've learned a lot from these guys in a short amount of time. Trying to decipher a capper's pattern though is too slow for me, and IMO will produce false positives for most following.

**Disclaimer to all here (again). These are recreational picks; I guarantee nothing except for the fact that I am going to open about what I am thinking. I don't want anyone following my picks unless they agree with the pick themselves. If you played the whole card today or any other day you did the wrong thing.

BOL to all for tomorrow.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I don't read your (or others) thread often as there is very little time between games. It was brought to my attention the range you were using and were it me, and it's not, I'd reduce that range a great deal to get more constant results. Again, I'm just trying to help you/others out before y'all tap out (reload the accounts from blindly following that).

You having your thread matters not as you have to do what you think is best for you. Would I like it if you resumed posting back in "No Rainouts"? Yes, as I don't have the luxury of time to go read others threads but understand if you don't and wish nothing but success for you. FYI, the range should be no more than 20 at most. That decision is yours.

[therber2]

Don't take this the wrong way, but I don't read your (or others) thread often as there is very little time between games. It was brought to my attention the range you were using and were it me, and it's not, I'd reduce that range a great deal to get more constant results. Again, I'm just trying to help you/others out before y'all tap out (reload the accounts from blindly following that).

You having your thread matters not as you have to do what you think is best for you. Would I like it if you resumed posting back in "No Rainouts"? Yes, as I don't have the luxury of time to go read others threads but understand if you don't and wish nothing but success for you. FYI, the range should be no more than 20 at most. That decision is yours.

Yeah man, I hear you there. Lately this has been feeling like a full time thing, and I am trying to do other things that are more important in my life.

The thread is better for me yes; I think that this will go places for people who aren't as experienced, and are trying to learn how to get a great edge on sports betting. It is a team effort here just like No Rainouts, but quite a bit different as you can see. I guess you do it your way, and I will do it mine.

Well I think it is good to start trying out a range of 15 days like mebaran is doing there. I like that; because like he said it is about 3 series. That will do. Just working out technical difficulties

Don't have anything great in mind for tomorrow mostly sleepy right now. Usually it is good to lay low after a cleanup day, and observe IMO. Tomorrow is the day of rest too, but I might have something good for tomorrow....er today

[mebaran]

I'm using mediafire for images now. A lot easier for me.

[mebaran]

The new sheet works well.

[therber2]

Special thanks to mebaran for a special gift to this thread. I am about 10 days in now mebaran, but I have a few games to look at. If there is anything worth posting I'll do so; we are not going to have a big card today. Sry fellas.

[therber2]

The new sheet works well.

Mebaran, use the prt scr key on your keyboard, open mspaint, marquee copy what is need (crop), new paint, paste, save to desktop, upload file directly to sbr post (no angelfire needed).

This is easier to do and for us to read. Let me know if you have questions with that. Actually there is a pdf option in excel under save as that might be easier too.

[mebaran]

Mebaran, use the prt scr key on your keyboard, open mspaint, marquee copy what is need (crop), new paint, paste, save to desktop, upload file directly to sbr post (no angelfire needed).

This is easier to do and for us to read. Let me know if you have questions with that. Actually there is a pdf option in excel under save as that might be easier too.

Got it. Thank you for the points, sir

[therber2]

Mebaran, I have bad news, but excellent news to make up for it. The excellent news: Mr. Steve over at cleanuphitter has done something special for us:
The bad news is of course, we won't be needing those sheets that you and I spent so much time on (unless for some reason you want to). Take a look at what he has going there on that link. It is accurate, and offers more features than we were able to make. Steve is a pro, and has this automated for us. Here is to both of you for some fine work recently.

NOW, onto business. Today wasn't the hottest day, but I have a big ol' bet on the Nuggets trying to make back some cash lost. Today I played heavy on the Yankees as they we STRONG candidates for the system. I think the Angels need to be studied. I will try tweaking around ranges to see what would have produced a win for the angels. As of now I think it would be good to find plays that work for past 5 days AND past 15 days. If these match with those two AND STD then I say go real big.

[mebaran]

Mebaran, I have bad news, but excellent news to make up for it. The excellent news: Mr. Steve over at cleanuphitter has done something special for us:
The bad news is of course, we won't be needing those sheets that you and I spent so much time on (unless for some reason you want to). Take a look at what he has going there on that link. It is accurate, and offers more features than we were able to make. Steve is a pro, and has this automated for us. Here is to both of you for some fine work recently.

NOW, onto business. Today wasn't the hottest day, but I have a big ol' bet on the Nuggets trying to make back some cash lost. Today I played heavy on the Yankees as they we STRONG candidates for the system. I think the Angels need to be studied. I will try tweaking around ranges to see what would have produced a win for the angels. As of now I think it would be good to find plays that work for past 5 days AND past 15 days. If these match with those two AND STD then I say go real big.

Ouch. All those hours! lol, no..this is WAY better. Kudos to him.

[JerseyShop101]

Great chart!!!!!

Check out the difference between Astros/Pirates:

Pirates in serious slump with only 4 innings scored out of 45 in last 5 games.

Astros RS 41/15 36.6% RA 45/10 22.2%
Pirates RS 45/4 8.9% RA 43/20 46.5%

Today they scored in 3 innings in their 10-3 loss to the Astros. So now they are 54/7 (12.9%).

On Monday they face the league leading Brewers (37.8% L5 thru Saturday), no wonder the line is -203.

[therber2]

Ouch. All those hours! lol, no..this is WAY better. Kudos to him.

I know! Think about it this way; you learned all about some great excel methods
Worth it?

I have a few more suggestion for Steve on what he has come up with that I will elaborate on more. In the meantime, please let me know what you all think about his method of showing what we are looking at. My suggestion is variable rate of change in the right columns (by last # days per column).

Any ideas to improve Steves shot at it there?

Got the BBQ going now with a few buds who are waiting. Steak and shrimp tonight. It is in order after yesterday. Enjoy the night.

[therber2]

Great chart!!!!!

Check out the difference between Astros/Pirates:

Pirates in serious slump with only 4 innings scored out of 45 in last 5 games.

Astros RS 41/15 36.6% RA 45/10 22.2%
Pirates RS 45/4 8.9% RA 43/20 46.5%

Today they scored in 3 innings in their 10-3 loss to the Astros. So now they are 54/7 (12.9%).

On Monday they face the league leading Brewers, no wonder the line is -203.

In a rush JerseyShop, but I like what you are getting at here. Hard to walk away, but the friends are callin me now. GTG brutha. We'll talk later! Go NUGGETS!

[therber2]

Great chart!!!!!

Check out the difference between Astros/Pirates:

Pirates in serious slump with only 4 innings scored out of 45 in last 5 games.

Astros RS 41/15 36.6% RA 45/10 22.2%
Pirates RS 45/4 8.9% RA 43/20 46.5%

Today they scored in 3 innings in their 10-3 loss to the Astros. So now they are 54/7 (12.9%).

On Monday they face the league leading Brewers (37.8% L5 thru Saturday), no wonder the line is -203.

Venting time.

Well...after a horrible day here. I wish I would have spent the extra minute to listen to Jerseyshop here. Honestly, I skimmed your writeup, and thought you were talking about a game tomorrow. At least I am playing with house money...on the bright side. Losing two locks sucks, but I've had worse. Just glad I didn't post them.

Man, I really can't stand betting basketball. So illogical to me; I have mad respect for some of you who can do it. The Nuggets was my BIG game of the day and it wasn't even close. Tried to make up a probably loss at half time; had it won, and the Nugs get jittery and lose it.

Done.

Okay, back to my main sport. Let's see what we've got for tomorrow...

[therber2]

5 day sort 4/25

Recent:

[therber2]

4/25 20 Day Sort

Long term: Should this be longer?

[therber2]

4/26 Big Card

Texas Rangers -138 (1 unit)
Padres +150 (1 unit)
Padres/Marlins u8 EV (1 unit)
Mariners -160 (2 units)
SEA/KC o7.5 -105 (1 unit)
CLE/LAA u8.5 EV (2 units)
LAA -1.5 +120 (3 units)
MIL -1.5 +110 (3 units)
MIL -205 (2 units)
Cubs -150 (1 units)
MIL/PIT o8.5 -115 (1 unit)
Rockies (3 units)
Rockies/D-Backs u9 +112 (2 units)
Phillies -155 (1 unit)
PHI/Giants o6.5 -115 (1 unit)
TOR +132 (1 unit)

GL for tomorrow. I may readjust this before gametime.

[mebaran]

I'm eyeing the Brewers -1.5 right now (makes a lot of sense with the data)

[therber2]

I'm eyeing the Brewers -1.5 right now (makes a lot of sense with the data)

Agree; however,

This is a grudge match. The Brewers swept the Pirates ending with a 20-0 game. Don't go to big on this one I'd say because of that, but I'd say it is worth betting.

[scratbandit]

this is amazing and will definitely be following this thread.

[therber2]

Welcome; always open to strangers. Hope you decide to post a thing or two.

[therber2]

Note: some plays adjusted.

[therber2]

Great chart!!!!!

Check out the difference between Astros/Pirates:

Pirates in serious slump with only 4 innings scored out of 45 in last 5 games.

Astros RS 41/15 36.6% RA 45/10 22.2%
Pirates RS 45/4 8.9% RA 43/20 46.5%

Today they scored in 3 innings in their 10-3 loss to the Astros. So now they are 54/7 (12.9%).

On Monday they face the league leading Brewers (37.8% L5 thru Saturday), no wonder the line is -203.

Man, I think I'm a work-a-holic. I made coffee at 4 AM to keep researching. JS, I read you post wrong twice. I see now you posted after the game observing the wide differential.

Just wanted to say that upon further review, my conclusion with the Yanks and Angels is that we did it right, but $hit happens. Simple as that; good to know. This is where money management comes into play. Two horrible losses sets you back but you are still in the black. Is everyone clear on how to manage your money?

I would like to mention a few other valuable threads that I found tonight: The Reverend's thread and G's Picks conservative thread. G and I are both on the Rockies (or at least he is leaning on it), and the Rev is on the Brewers with me although I think he is a bit heavier.

Always an honorable mention is Mr. TodaysAction; I hope that he will stop by more often and maybe tell us more of his secrets. Terry, I appreciate the insight from the other day.

Jersey, what do you see fitting for today? Looking over results. Also, I recommended your study to Steve. You should consider shooting him an email, and seeing if he could get you a page for your 1st inning study.

[Just Enough]

4/26

angels (185-100)
cards (116-100)
seattle (175-100)

have at it!

[JerseyShop101]

Therber2,

Thanks, I sent an email to Steve, he has saved us so much time with this its just fantastic. I asked him about doing one for the 1st inning Prop, I'll let you know how it goes.

Just going over some of the games now, be careful, Milwaukee scored 20 runs in 6 scored innings in Pittsburgh last Thursday, then went home for 3 games and only scored 4 runs in 4 out of 27 innings, playing Chicago.

With that said Batter vs. Pitcher is in Milwaukee's favor and I still believe Milwaukee gets the job done -1.5.

[therber2]

Therber2,

Thanks, I sent an email to Steve, he has saved us so much time with this its just fantastic. I asked him about doing one for the 1st inning Prop, I'll let you know how it goes.

Just going over some of the games now, be careful, Milwaukee scored 20 runs in 6 scored innings in Pittsburgh last Thursday, then went home for 3 games and only scored 4 runs in 4 out of 27 innings, playing Chicago.

With that said Batter vs. Pitcher is in Milwaukee's favor and I still believe Milwaukee gets the job done -1.5.
[ATTACH]11591[/ATTACH]

Yes! That is exactly what I've been thinking about the inflated line (borderline worth taking). The Brewers killed the Pirates but then got destroyed by the Cubs. In all fairness this could just be an example of using up the "magic" in those bats. Cubs really came out of no where there, and the lines predicted those wins making them favorites. I swear those lines guys are not from this earth.

Anyways, make sure to tell Steve that you are actually the original creator of half of what I am doing with the innings / game sheet. Innings RA is my idea to complement it. I already told Steve this and dug up your thread from last season to show him results. That is what he wanted to see to make sure it is worth it.

Yeah, cleanup hitter is such a great site for me; I really hope that he writes up your study too. Freeing up time for us opens up a whole new world of opportunity.