The Big Card

[therber2]

Note: added Detroit.

[darkenergy]

Let us know you have anything on Detroit tonight.
I just have Philly team total OVER 4.5 and 4 on two of my accounts, they all cashed around 4 innings.
I just feel strange that last two games total was set around 7 or 7.5 ( I aware all of the great pitchers and such, but Lowe and Moyer aren't bad themselves IMO), and this game shoot it up to 9.5. I love the OVER for whole game, but I think Philly bats are better, so chance to brings total to OVER would be Philly go over themselves.

It all irrelevant now, I guess. I should have share this with everyone, but lately I can't pick a winner when I post so don't want anyone to lose money.
I had Pitt and Nationals TT OVER, and both of them are scoreless.

[Just Enough]

thanks for the kind words therbs, i'll pop in when i can. it is a very busy time for me right now, i don't wager every night. i still consider myself a newb with 1 year of hockey under my belt and this being my first full season of baseball wagering. i'm still learning alot and hope to get a few more pointers from this thread as well as TA's thread. i'll be trying a few different methods of wagering throughout the year. i won't have reasons why i'm wagering on a team other than i think they will win. thanks again for letting me post in here, on that note here are my leans for tomorrow:

redsox
rays
twins
a's
phils

all to win 100.

have a good night gents.

[darkenergy]

Note: added Detroit.

Nice start right out of the gate for Tigers there therber2

[therber2]

Let us know you have anything on Detroit tonight.
I just have Philly team total OVER 4.5 and 4 on two of my accounts, they all cashed around 4 innings.
I just feel strange that last two games total was set around 7 or 7.5 ( I aware all of the great pitchers and such, but Lowe and Moyer aren't bad themselves IMO), and this game shoot it up to 9.5. I love the OVER for whole game, but I think Philly bats are better, so chance to brings total to OVER would be Philly go over themselves.

It all irrelevant now, I guess. I should have share this with everyone, but lately I can't pick a winner when I post so don't want anyone to lose money.
I had Pitt and Nationals TT OVER, and both of them are scoreless.

Darkenergy,

Hope you saw that I did add Detroit to the list. Philly team total over was a good call. They are high on my list for run production; however, I was on the other side today so I wouldn't have taken it had you asked.

DE, it is fine for you to post picks and keep a record. Actually posting thoughts after the game starts/is over is just fine as well. No one here minds how bad....or good the record is. What is important is either consistent results or some good insight.

[therber2]

thanks for the kind words therbs, i'll pop in when i can. it is a very busy time for me right now, i don't wager every night. i still consider myself a newb with 1 year of hockey under my belt and this being my first full season of baseball wagering. i'm still learning alot and hope to get a few more pointers from this thread as well as TA's thread. i'll be trying a few different methods of wagering throughout the year. i won't have reasons why i'm wagering on a team other than i think they will win. thanks again for letting me post in here, on that note here are my leans for tomorrow:

redsox
rays
twins
a's
phils

all to win 100.

have a good night gents.

Phillies and Rays look good to me. A's are performing well. I appreciate you picks here bud. I don't care how much time you've spent doing this; I can tell this is your cup of tea. Feel free to post pick with a record.

When you can a short blurb or two on why you are on one particularly good play is nice. What are the main things you are looking at this season when you cap JE?

[therber2]

Nice start right out of the gate for Tigers there therber2

Yes, well it is good to see that they are able to knock them in today, but then so is LAA. Verlander needs to turn up the heat. This is sort of the point where lagging teams are trying to make up; I think that is LAA's case today; otherwise this would have been a larger play.

[Just Enough]

therbs, right now i work within a series. pitching matchups is what i look at.
by the way, my leans are now official. my spreadsheet is up to date. soory to be so vague, but my time is limited.

GL tonight bro.

[darkenergy]

I'm new to the ERA and WHIP things, just start looking at them today since lurking around this thread, so I probably clustering your thread with this newbie question hope you don't mind.
At first, I really Ranger game tonight, but after looking the ERA and WHIP factor, I perceive Detroit is a better choice. Since I am new, so I don't know I read the number right or not.

My question ONLY referring to comparing ERA and WHIP in fundamental, I know there are other factors involve in order to finalized a pick.

When compare pitcher's whip and era, is it the number smaller is the better, am I right?

Cherzer:
Road start ERA 1.50, WHIP 0.833
Detroit Bullpen Road ERA 1.42, WHIP 1.2.

Fieldman:
Home start ERA 2.57, WHIP 0.929
Ranger Bullpen Home ERA 6.61, WHIP 1.840

[BigJ]

Detroit has a slight advantage in hitting but also has more errors.
I like the way of thinking in this thread. I've heard the WHIP is a very important stat to watch. I've been looking at it for my picks lateley too. This seems like a no play for me tho.

[darkenergy]

thanks BigJ for an additional angle that I should aware of. When looking at the matchup, is it ER is a abbreviation ERROR??? LOL

[therber2]

Don't have time now for the big card, but I'll leave you with one play that I really like:

Dodgers -110 (5 units)
Indians +1.5 -120 (1 units)
PIT/MIL YES (1 unit)
Detroit -105 (3 units)

Lean: I think Verlander will cleanup today, but haven't looked into it much.
Edit: Yes, he will. :-) Give it a decent sized bet folks.

2-2 -2.6 units

We'll get em. The reason the Dodgers play was so strong was mainly because they scored in 8 of 9 inning the prev. game, and every factor checked except a few. Played it right but $hit happens.

[therber2]

therbs, right now i work within a series. pitching matchups is what i look at.
by the way, my leans are now official. my spreadsheet is up to date. soory to be so vague, but my time is limited.

GL tonight bro.

Just Enough, I looked at your spreadsheet which is now bookmarked. It looks like you have a good system worked out. Sounds like you are betting teams to win at least a game out of a series, and chasing that. Like your style. Correct me please if I am wrong though with that interpretation.

Do you think you could post an alert when you get to your second and third games (I am guessing the stronger plays, but I'll take a second look).

[therber2]

Coin toss game NO PLAY

I'm new to the ERA and WHIP things, just start looking at them today since lurking around this thread, so I probably clustering your thread with this newbie question hope you don't mind.
At first, I really Ranger game tonight, but after looking the ERA and WHIP factor, I perceive Detroit is a better choice. Since I am new, so I don't know I read the number right or not.

My question ONLY referring to comparing ERA and WHIP in fundamental, I know there are other factors involve in order to finalized a pick.

When compare pitcher's whip and era, is it the number smaller is the better, am I right?

SCherzer:
Road start ERA 1.50, WHIP 0.833
Detroit Bullpen Road ERA 1.42, WHIP 1.2.

I like this guy as he is giving up less than 5.5 hits per start.

Fieldman:
Home start ERA 2.57, WHIP 0.929
Ranger Bullpen Home ERA 6.61, WHIP 1.840

Darkenergy, DO NOT feel as if you are cluttering the thread with these insightful thoughts. You won me a bet the other day on the Indians. Wouldn't have played it honestly if you didn't bring it up. So since you've brought up this game I am going to analyze it wit you, and give you my lean. Here goes:

"When compare pitcher's whip and era, is it the number smaller is the better, am I right?" First off....yes smaller is better for pitching. Larger is better for batting; you've got it. Keep a few things in mind here; these numbers IMO should be thought of as relative to MLB average or 3day, 12day, career performance. It is important to not go heavy on a number when it comes to this. Emotions and situations are often much more important, and I would look around for guys who track individual player qualities in more depth. For example, I knew yesterday that Detroit puts Verlander in at the end of series and he cleans up at a high rate..

Onto the game at hand: I think Texas' bullpen is probably a bit worn down. Home team playing off a win on a Friday sort of makes me not like the Rangers, but then the Tigers are off a couple of wins on a visit so I think the lean there goes to the Tigers. I am noticing the Tigers' catcher is letting too many stolen bases go

Tigers are slugging at .462 with OBP at .429 and BA at .288
Rangers at .327 with OBP at .367 and BA at .215
Strong win their for the Tigers

Tigers' bullpen WHIP is .748 in the last 3 days with an OBP at .225
Rangers' bullpen WHIP is 1.460 with an OBP of .339
Another win for the Tigers

Rangers are showing better run production per inning (only slightly better) both aren't so hot in this area.

My pick:
Tigers +127 (1 unit)
Take this small or not at all.

[therber2]

Detroit has a slight advantage in hitting but also has more errors.
I like the way of thinking in this thread. I've heard the WHIP is a very important stat to watch. I've been looking at it for my picks lateley too. This seems like a no play for me tho.

Thanks BigJ and welcome. Hope you post some thoughts like the above here. Yes WHIP is close to my top factor, but for the bullpen. People didn't look at this last season and it killed them.

I am going to bump this:

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)." (Except from a promo email to the public.)

Again, this is from statfox who say that their number 1 factor is bullpen. I was interested because most of the time for me it is as well since we have SPs playing less innings these days.

[therber2]

thanks BigJ for an additional angle that I should aware of. When looking at the matchup, is it ER is a abbreviation ERROR??? LOL

the answer to these Q's google please.

ER - number of EARNED RUNS given up by a pitcher. These are runs the opponents scored that were the responsibility of the pitcher. Any runs that scored as a result of a fielders error would not be earned runs.

[darkenergy]

Just Enough, I looked at your spreadsheet which is now bookmarked. It looks like you have a good system worked out. Sounds like you are betting teams to win at least a game out of a series, and chasing that. Like your style. Correct me please if I am wrong though with that interpretation. Do you think you could post an alert when you get to your second and third games (I am guessing the stronger plays, but I'll take a second look).

I hope your interpretation is correct therber2. Because, coincidentally I actually work out a group of teams, thinking about chasing like mentioned above this morning, since today is all new series start.
I notice that each week at beginning (Monday) all new series start, and middle of the week most of teams starting a new series again until Sunday. So, if chasing a team that I think have a good shot of taking 2 out of 3, would limited my time to go search for plays and such. Secondly preventing me from playing random and a lot of plays.
I still thinking of how to filter out some of higher juice plays, should I select home team in a series only or not. For example, I always fear to put my trust on Redsox at home.
But here's the list that I think these team could take 2 out of 3 of the series ending Sunday.
Texas (home) vs. Detroit
Dodger (away) vs. Nationals
Tampa (home vs. bluebird
Rockies (home) vs. Fish...................probably
Houston (home) vs Pitt .................very light, because 1 bad team vs 1 worse team...hard to pick here LOL
Milwaukee (home) Cubs
Boston (home) vs. Baltimore.

I more interesting if anyone have more idea on Brave/Met game, because their last game is on ESPN Sunday night. I always love the game on ESPN sunday night.

[darkenergy]

Anyone have a good site that list pitcher lineup in 3 day glance?Thx

[therber2]

The big card 4.23

Dodgers -117 (1 unit)
Braves -125 (1 unit)
ATL/NYM u8.5 -105 (2 units)
Padres +105 (1 unit)
Cubs -114 (1 unit) play at your own risk
CUBS/MIL o9 +108 (1 unit)
Phillies -170 (1 units)
B'Jays +220 (1 unit) Dog of the day; not a great play but definately a bet worth taking.
TOR/TAM o8.5 -115 (2 units)
Balti O's +205 (1 unit)
Twins -130 (2 units)
Giants -160 (2 units)
OAK -155 (1 unit)

GL today!

[therber2]

I hope your interpretation is correct therber2. Because, coincidentally I actually work out a group of teams, thinking about chasing like mentioned above this morning, since today is all new series start.
I notice that each week at beginning (Monday) all new series start, and middle of the week most of teams starting a new series again until Sunday. So, if chasing a team that I think have a good shot of taking 2 out of 3, would limited my time to go search for plays and such. Secondly preventing me from playing random and a lot of plays.
I still thinking of how to filter out some of higher juice plays, should I select home team in a series only or not. For example, I always fear to put my trust on Redsox at home.
But here's the list that I think these team could take 2 out of 3 of the series ending Sunday.
Texas (home) vs. Detroit
Dodger (away) vs. Nationals
Tampa (home vs. bluebird
Rockies (home) vs. Fish...................probably
Houston (home) vs Pitt .................very light, because 1 bad team vs 1 worse team...hard to pick here LOL
Milwaukee (home) Cubs
Boston (home) vs. Baltimore.

I more interesting if anyone have more idea on Brave/Met game, because their last game is on ESPN Sunday night. I always love the game on ESPN sunday night.

"I hope your interpretation is correct therber2."
Sound like it wasn't cause you say: "So, if chasing a team that I think have a good shot of taking 2 out of 3, would limited my time to go search for plays and such."

By 2 out of 3, I take it you mean simply winning the series which I hope you know you can bet on!

It is a hard bet to say who will win the series, but if you have a very good hunch who will win it is hard to say that they will get swept. Interesting. I have a feeling you will rake $$$'s doing this.

DE; could you please at some point pick one series, and tell us in more depth why you think they'll win the series?

[darkenergy]

What I mean a team could potentially have a good shot to win 2 out of 3, but I didn't mean to bet on series bet.
What I really mean is taking Tampa or Redsox for instant, take them for the first game, if lost double on next bet (original+juice+1unit wanna win), as soon as bet win, clear out the series.
Again, these are just pop up recently in mind.

I couldn't provide you with any depth why I really think one WILL win a series, at this point nothing more than a wild guess.
BUT that why I ask for the source of where to locate a place would list teams matchup in 3 days glance ahead, hope if I know who are the pitcher and such in the 3 games span will better help me chose a series. Is it not?

[mebaran]

Anyone have a good site that list pitcher lineup in 3 day glance?Thx

I use cbssports.com

[therber2]

An update on run production

We are just about at that point where this data becomes useful, and I will consider it with a bit more weight. This is an experiment for the season.

[mebaran]

What needs to be tracked is this: (same format as the other sheet attached here)
%= #innings with runs allowed / innings played

Do this for each team, and I will need you to go back a bit to April 4th. Create a daily roster, and we'll look at each other's results and come up with a good way to correlate these two things.

For example, team high on run production list and low on give up innings = good play; A great starting point. This should be gold for totals as well.

Cheers fellas!

Sure, I'll give it a shot

[Foghorn]

Sure, I'll give it a shot

Hi Guys,
Hope you don't mind me butting in with an opinion.
I did this last year, but had a spreadsheet that tracked the last 2 series for each team. I think if you do it for all games for the season, you miss on teams that are hot or cold. Maybe we could keep tweaking it to give us the best possible edge.

Good Stuff.........

[therber2]

Thanks!

Sure, I'll give it a shot

Mebaran

Thank you for volunteering! Really looking forward to the results. Are you also willing to update it everyday?

Please get google docs. We can make these sheets on the google doc spreadsheets, and make them read only for each other unless you won't to post them here every day.

Let me know.

[therber2]

Hi Guys,
Hope you don't mind me butting in with an opinion.
I did this last year, but had a spreadsheet that tracked the last 2 series for each team. I think if you do it for all games for the season, you miss on teams that are hot or cold. Maybe we could keep tweaking it to give us the best possible edge.

Good Stuff.........

Foghorn, you are always welcome here, and it is great to see you come by. I am looking forward to you getting into your groove as I know it will happen soon.

We need those write-ups, and I think that is what will get you back on track honestly.

Hot and cold is a major issue that won't get tracked if we do it this way you are absolutely correct.

Jerseyshop might have some ideas for this; he was tracking this stuff last year. Yoo-hoo... Do we have any volunteers for tracking recent stats. Lets say last 12 games at any date? I remember a good programmer. Haven't spoke with him in a while though. I am fairly certain that the guy that runs cleanuphitter.com would be able to do this for us. I'll shoot him an email.

[mebaran]

Mebaran

Thank you for volunteering! Really looking forward to the results. Are you also willing to update it everyday?

Please get google docs. We can make these sheets on the google doc spreadsheets, and make them read only for each other unless you won't to post them here every day.

Let me know.

Well, I just signed up for a google account now because I have NO idea why I didn't have one already (google may very well take over the world; great company and site), but I am willing to post the results publicly if there is enough interest. Until then we can just exchange with each other.

And yes, I'll be able to update daily.

Not sure how yet, but I'll probably be able to include the data from the previous 3 series as well. Stay tuned on this part

[therber2]

Well, I just signed up for a google account now because I have NO idea why I didn't have one already (google may very well take over the world; great company and site), but I am willing to post the results publicly if there is enough interest. Until then we can just exchange with each other.

Not sure how yet, but I'll probably be able to include the data from the previous 3 series as well. Stay tuned on this part

Mebaran, first off. Go Cubs indeed Are you in Chicago?

Okay, if you want to do the sheet and post it in here like I've been doing with mine that is fine. I sent an email to Steve over at cleanuphitter asking if he'd offer some advice on how to program a scrape. Honestly, don't want to go there....I cannot stand programming; however, read Foghorn's post again, and check out how Steve at cleanup does his multisorts (by last X#days). That is what we should do OR to make it simple we could just have two sheets one with the full season and another with the last 12 games or something.

Jerseyshop, what do you think? Last 12 games?

[mebaran]

Mebaran, first off. Go Cubs indeed Are you in Chicago?

Okay, if you want to do the sheet and post it in here like I've been doing with mine that is fine. I sent an email to Steve over at cleanuphitter asking if he'd offer some advice on how to program a scrape. Honestly, don't want to go there....I cannot stand programming; however, read Foghorn's post again, and check out how Steve at cleanup does his multisorts (by last X#days). That is what we should do OR to make it simple we could just have two sheets one with the full season and another with the last 12 games or something.

Jerseyshop, what do you think? Last 12 games?

As of right now in my spreadsheet I have it as last 15 days..which is about that give or take.

[Just Enough]

Just Enough, I looked at your spreadsheet which is now bookmarked. It looks like you have a good system worked out. Sounds like you are betting teams to win at least a game out of a series, and chasing that. Like your style. Correct me please if I am wrong though with that interpretation.

Do you think you could post an alert when you get to your second and third games (I am guessing the stronger plays, but I'll take a second look).

your right on bro. this is the style of betting i will use for now. i'm tracking a few others right now and may change this up later in the season. i'll let you know when i get to the second and third games. hopefully you won't see too many of those.

[mebaran]

Hey, therber..I've been doing a little thinking, and I'm struggling to understand how these sheets will help us make money.

Lets say a score of a game is Cubs 10, Cardinals 3.

If the Cardinals give all ten runs up in 1 inning, and the Cubs give their's up in 3 separate innings, these don't help our model, do they? Even though the Cubs win the game by a long shot, they lose according to this way of calculating innings.

Wouldn't ERA, WHIP, DICE all be better candidates to make models with?

[therber2]

Hey, therber..I've been doing a little thinking, and I'm struggling to understand how these sheets will help us make money.

Lets say a score of a game is Cubs 10, Cardinals 3.

If the Cardinals give all ten runs up in 1 inning, and the Cubs give their's up in 3 separate innings, these don't help our model, do they? Even though the Cubs win the game by a long shot, they lose according to this way of calculating innings.

Wouldn't ERA, WHIP, DICE all be better candidates to make models with?

Mebaran, that is true, but consistancy or lack of is what I am looking at here. The first model tracks a team's run production, and the other one would track how consistently a team allows the other to produce runs.

If you are more interested in the other things or think it is a better route I say do that instead. Really it isn't a lot to tackle; I'll do this one myself. I'd like to hear what you are thinking though...ideas on how to logically track ERA, WHIP, and DICE.

Just wanted to step in for a minute; going back out in a few. Take care guys.

[therber2]

4/24 Results

Dodgers -117 (1 unit)
Braves -125 (1 unit)
ATL/NYM u8.5 -105 (2 units)
Padres +105 (1 unit)
Cubs -114 (1 unit) play at your own risk
CUBS/MIL o9 +108 (1 unit) PUSH
Phillies -170 (1 units)
B'Jays +220 (1 unit) Dog of the day; not a great play but definately a bet worth taking.
[COLOR="rgb(0, 100, 0)"]TOR/TAM o8.5 -115 (2 units)[/COLOR]
Balti O's +205 (1 unit)
Twins -130 (2 units)
Giants -160 (2 units)
OAK -155 (1 unit)

GL today!

.........

[therber2]

Not a bad day.

7-4-1 6.13 units