taken from that site
last night I took my first loss chasing to the 8th inning on the Phillis vs Padres game. Basically lost the winning for the day and a few hundred more on top (was betting $125 for each A game). So I took the time last night to go back and check every single game starting May 1st till yesterday to see which games would've lost chasing to 8th inning. As you can imagine it was a lot of box scores to look at, but total there were 48 games that you would've lost if you bet 1)Yes on 1st inning, 2)No, on 2nd inning, 3)No on 7th inning and 4) No, on 8th inning. Out of all those games I came up what the common denominators were that caused the loses (which teams). The main 6 teams were:
Phillies
Orioles
Marlins
Reds
Twins
White Sox
by eliminating (fading) playing the games that these teams play you would only have lost 17 games instead of 48!! which is a huge difference.
the next teams, if you wanted to even be more pickier were ,
Angel
Dodgers
Mariners
They each cause 3 loses a piece. (2 of those loses from Dodgers and Angels were against each other) so can't narrow down which one causes the loss.
So by eliminating the top 6 teams I mentioned you can increase your winning by a huge margin.
Yes, there are a few games that were caused by teams not listed above but they were very min , if any and that's a loss I can handle if it's once in a month but this is gambling and you have to take a loss here and there. No system can go undefeated. Hope that helps you guys getting rid of some of your future losses.
than a post where one guy calculated win loss ratio during 10 days
I don't do a lot of post but after seeing some of the responses on this posting I decided to do some math on it and post what I found. I'm not here to bash anyone and if something is working for you GREAT.... BOL of to you.....However this is what I came up with...
First off there is much more to this than just a win loss record. Because if you don't collect after the 2nd inning the compounded losses from the 2nd and or the 7th innings will reduce your net win totals on each game. Since it has been stated that the lines run between -110 to -140 I used an average of -125 for every line........
If you bet $125 and win in the 2nd inning you will win $100....pretty straight forward...
If you need to bet 7th inning it will cost $250 for you to collect $200 but you would have lost $125 on the first wager for a net win of $75....
If you need to go to the 8th inning it will cost $500 to win $400 but you would have lost $125 and $250 for a net win of just $25.....
I randomly picked a 10 day period to track. I started on July 1st since every day would have 15 games except for the 7th (12 games). Granted this is a somewhat small sample size so take it for what you want..... But it does cover 147 games....
During the 10 days there was
60 wins in the 2nd inning
53 wins in the 7th inning
17 wins in the 8th inning
and 17 games where the was a run in all 3 innings where we would lose $875 per game ($125 + $250 + $500)
All but 2 days (1st and 5th) had a least one game where runs were scored in all 3 innings and 6 of the 10 days had at least 2 games where there were runs in all 3 innings.....
Using our net wins by innings we would have won....
2nd inning 60 x $100 for a profit of $6000
7th inning 53 x $75 for a profit of $3975
8th inning 17x $25 for a profit of $425
for a total of $10400.......
However in the 17 games a run was scored in all 3 we lost $875 per game for a total of $14875 giving a net loss of $4475.....
Again Kevin if you found something that works for you I wish you the best. I'm simply posting this for those who are wondering what the numbers look like for EVERY game during a short period of time..... If anyone else wants to look at another time period and do the same thing it would be nice to see the results if they are different that what I came up with but for now I think I have seen enough!!!!
BOL to all
but that guy has done calculating with thoose 6 teams to avoid, and if he didnt calculate their results also in thoose 10 days there wouldnt be 17 losses but maybe 2 and of course there would be less winning picks too but that wouldnt be also 8.5x less as with losing picks. but here is the catch, a guy who found 6 teams to avoid also added 1st inning play into strategy and of course now he have abcd bets instead of abc which makes losses bigger but also more rare than with abc bets
last night I took my first loss chasing to the 8th inning on the Phillis vs Padres game. Basically lost the winning for the day and a few hundred more on top (was betting $125 for each A game). So I took the time last night to go back and check every single game starting May 1st till yesterday to see which games would've lost chasing to 8th inning. As you can imagine it was a lot of box scores to look at, but total there were 48 games that you would've lost if you bet 1)Yes on 1st inning, 2)No, on 2nd inning, 3)No on 7th inning and 4) No, on 8th inning. Out of all those games I came up what the common denominators were that caused the loses (which teams). The main 6 teams were:
Phillies
Orioles
Marlins
Reds
Twins
White Sox
by eliminating (fading) playing the games that these teams play you would only have lost 17 games instead of 48!! which is a huge difference.
the next teams, if you wanted to even be more pickier were ,
Angel
Dodgers
Mariners
They each cause 3 loses a piece. (2 of those loses from Dodgers and Angels were against each other) so can't narrow down which one causes the loss.
So by eliminating the top 6 teams I mentioned you can increase your winning by a huge margin.
Yes, there are a few games that were caused by teams not listed above but they were very min , if any and that's a loss I can handle if it's once in a month but this is gambling and you have to take a loss here and there. No system can go undefeated. Hope that helps you guys getting rid of some of your future losses.
than a post where one guy calculated win loss ratio during 10 days
I don't do a lot of post but after seeing some of the responses on this posting I decided to do some math on it and post what I found. I'm not here to bash anyone and if something is working for you GREAT.... BOL of to you.....However this is what I came up with...
First off there is much more to this than just a win loss record. Because if you don't collect after the 2nd inning the compounded losses from the 2nd and or the 7th innings will reduce your net win totals on each game. Since it has been stated that the lines run between -110 to -140 I used an average of -125 for every line........
If you bet $125 and win in the 2nd inning you will win $100....pretty straight forward...
If you need to bet 7th inning it will cost $250 for you to collect $200 but you would have lost $125 on the first wager for a net win of $75....
If you need to go to the 8th inning it will cost $500 to win $400 but you would have lost $125 and $250 for a net win of just $25.....
I randomly picked a 10 day period to track. I started on July 1st since every day would have 15 games except for the 7th (12 games). Granted this is a somewhat small sample size so take it for what you want..... But it does cover 147 games....
During the 10 days there was
60 wins in the 2nd inning
53 wins in the 7th inning
17 wins in the 8th inning
and 17 games where the was a run in all 3 innings where we would lose $875 per game ($125 + $250 + $500)
All but 2 days (1st and 5th) had a least one game where runs were scored in all 3 innings and 6 of the 10 days had at least 2 games where there were runs in all 3 innings.....
Using our net wins by innings we would have won....
2nd inning 60 x $100 for a profit of $6000
7th inning 53 x $75 for a profit of $3975
8th inning 17x $25 for a profit of $425
for a total of $10400.......
However in the 17 games a run was scored in all 3 we lost $875 per game for a total of $14875 giving a net loss of $4475.....
Again Kevin if you found something that works for you I wish you the best. I'm simply posting this for those who are wondering what the numbers look like for EVERY game during a short period of time..... If anyone else wants to look at another time period and do the same thing it would be nice to see the results if they are different that what I came up with but for now I think I have seen enough!!!!
BOL to all
but that guy has done calculating with thoose 6 teams to avoid, and if he didnt calculate their results also in thoose 10 days there wouldnt be 17 losses but maybe 2 and of course there would be less winning picks too but that wouldnt be also 8.5x less as with losing picks. but here is the catch, a guy who found 6 teams to avoid also added 1st inning play into strategy and of course now he have abcd bets instead of abc which makes losses bigger but also more rare than with abc bets
It's not your fault with the title, I just have to take the time to read it correctly.
