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o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

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  • thekoreanmang
    SBR MVP
    • 03-17-14
    • 1422

    #456
    Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
    please clean up your inbox, I'm getting this:

    • thekoreanmang has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space.
    It's clear. Send away.
    Comment
    • white powder
      SBR Hustler
      • 06-07-16
      • 56

      #457
      well i would like to try that but i dont have enough time, im fm croatia so time difference also presents a problem to me, i think i could hit 60% with 1.85 average odd if i cap football ( real football not that weird game americans call football), i tried cfd trading too but only demo accounts for now im still trying to learn how to minimize losses over there ( fm 50k i managed to climb up to 170k though). i used to bet just for fun u know 1 euro with 10 pairs of soccer for a win of lets say 100 euros but than i realised that even though i dont loose anything that i cannot afford its like giving the money to bookies because mostly i hit 7 or 8 from 10, sometimes just 4 or 5 (but thats very rare). than i saw a page on facebook where a group of guys try to teach noobs as i used to be on how to make money from betting and here i am, making money lol. i studied and followed all the guys from above for about 2 months and 20 days ago i invested and even though its not some huge money that i made i still increased my BR for about 80% for now which is not bad at all, i mean its maybe just 7,8 or 15 euros per day that im winning right now but the BR keeps growing, 4% becomes bigger than before, wins become bigger, losses also but i think i learned how to be patient and disciplined and i think thats the key, i was planning to invest more money into this and also try cfd with real money (maybe just 100e so i dont care even if i lose them, im not crazy to invest large money into something that im not proficient as i should be) but im 24 and its summer time here lol
      Comment
      • white powder
        SBR Hustler
        • 06-07-16
        • 56

        #458
        also if possible, send me some links about cfd and fx trading that might be useful for lets say beginers
        Comment
        • TechnicalTrader
          SBR MVP
          • 05-09-16
          • 1434

          #459
          Originally posted by thekoreanmang
          It's clear. Send away.
          sent
          Comment
          • white powder
            SBR Hustler
            • 06-07-16
            • 56

            #460
            http://kokosar2.blogspot.cz/ theese guys taught me how to bet, translate to english or your motherlanguage and u will figure out how do they do that, win rate on their blog is 54,55% only with average odd at around 1,85 and look what a progress they have made from may untill now, last year they stopped at 57k after some 30 betting cycles, this year they are doin it a little bit worse than a previous one but as u can see they made some money so far. their picks used to be free but now they charge 130e per month and my previous plan was to track them, maybe not with starting br 1000e but some 200 300 and than i realised that its summer and i started to dig some picks by myself, found you, found others, made some money so far and im happy ill keep grinding and if everything continues to go this way ill be even more happy in about 5 months, might sound as a long shot but i became patient adn patience is the key
            Comment
            • TechnicalTrader
              SBR MVP
              • 05-09-16
              • 1434

              #461
              Originally posted by white powder
              also if possible, send me some links about cfd and fx trading that might be useful for lets say beginers
              Good stuff. Go to forexfactoryand look up some of the naked trading threads. One of mine is still alive over there. if you want to learn forex, there is only one way... The hard way and that is to learn price action and read charts correctly. Learn what a kangaroo tail is, a shooting star, a big shadow, a three strike candle. Also look up Thomas Bulkowski and study everything he has ever said....

              I don't really use the word luck, so rather than me wishing you luck, I'd rather wish you fun and a crap load of knowledge on the topic.

              Btw, I also live in Europe. The time difference is a royal pain in the a$$
              Comment
              • TechnicalTrader
                SBR MVP
                • 05-09-16
                • 1434

                #462
                Originally posted by white powder
                http://kokosar2.blogspot.cz/ theese guys taught me how to bet, translate to english or your motherlanguage and u will figure out how do they do that, win rate on their blog is 54,55% only with average odd at around 1,85 and look what a progress they have made from may untill now, last year they stopped at 57k after some 30 betting cycles, this year they are doin it a little bit worse than a previous one but as u can see they made some money so far. their picks used to be free but now they charge 130e per month and my previous plan was to track them, maybe not with starting br 1000e but some 200 300 and than i realised that its summer and i started to dig some picks by myself, found you, found others, made some money so far and im happy ill keep grinding and if everything continues to go this way ill be even more happy in about 5 months, might sound as a long shot but i became patient adn patience is the key
                55% at 1.85 is almost break even...
                Comment
                • white powder
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 06-07-16
                  • 56

                  #463
                  thanks for the fx tips ill study them all, about the blog

                  i was wrong, their average odd is about 1.91, baseball win rate 53 and basketball win rate 56%, they obviously had some bad days because i noticed that last betting cycle lasted about 10-15 days which is awful for their standards, sometimes they finish 1 cycle in 2 3 days, make some 3 4 units of profit calculate unit value for the next cycle and move on to next one, i dont follow them too much maybe once a week to see how are they doin, since all their picks are now paid picks. when i first started to study about this stuff i saw they said that 56% with 1.9 is enough but we (ppl fm my country) must make and account in some foreign bookie not the ones fm our country because they take 5% provision from each stake and they started to charge every win with 12%tax so it became impossible to make money with our bookies unless someone hits like 70% with 1.9 odd. so thats 1st thing that one must do in order to even start, and the 2nd thing is on them, hit rate should be constantly not under 55 56% for a small profit. i noticed that their profit on blog is now 266 and it used to be around 480 some 10 days ago so i suppose they pass through ruff period now. but here is the catch how they made 9k out of 1k invested with lets say thoose 48 units of profit (and its very similar to your type of betting). they divide br with 25 which makes each unit 4% of br, one betting cycle is 25 bets and if its profitable (if not they play untill they end up unit or more up), calculate new br, new unit value and move on to next cycle. witouth betting though the cycles 10 days ago their br would be some 2.3k instead of 9k (with an average stake always at 25e). so as u can see its almost the same thing as u and i do it (i dunno about the others here)
                  Comment
                  • white powder
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 06-07-16
                    • 56

                    #464
                    tt is your nickname on ff same as here? and where should i look for your thread, inside the interactive trading, trading systems, trading discussion, trading journals or rookie talk maybe?
                    Comment
                    • pushany2
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 07-26-16
                      • 12

                      #465
                      Originally posted by white powder
                      - tommy karate, around 55% hit rate with nice odds, if someone could explain me what do his M1,2,8 bets mean i would be grateful because i have no clue what do they talk about, ppl ask what does that mean but none of them replies.
                      Here is some clue http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post23827289 but still need some explain what these abbreviations mean.
                      Comment
                      • jlani93
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 05-06-16
                        • 107

                        #466
                        Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                        Overs:
                        ATL/MIL 3%
                        HOU/MIN 3%
                        PHI/LAD 3%

                        Unders :
                        TB/TOR 3%
                        SF/MIA 2%
                        TEX/COL 3%
                        Im at the Silverton Sportsbook. PHI/LAD +.5 is +135. Can't recall seeing -155 (U) for a 1st inning run.
                        Comment
                        • pairadux
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 08-08-10
                          • 26

                          #467
                          TT,

                          Are your new percentages based on the old 3/4% and scaled as accordingly? Or are they lower while you test and gain confidence in your adjustments?
                          Comment
                          • TechnicalTrader
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-09-16
                            • 1434

                            #468
                            Originally posted by pairadux
                            TT,

                            Are your new percentages based on the old 3/4% and scaled as accordingly? Or are they lower while you test and gain confidence in your adjustments?
                            Lower because I am trying out something new.

                            ....and the results weren't great. 3:3 on the day, loss about 1%/portfolio, will have numbers up later.
                            Comment
                            • TechnicalTrader
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-09-16
                              • 1434

                              #469
                              Very, very long day. Will get the numbers and picks up later.

                              Pick 1:

                              UNDER
                              TEX/COL, 2%
                              Comment
                              • TechnicalTrader
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-09-16
                                • 1434

                                #470
                                Well, that sucked...

                                Just getting around to capping now, picks will trickle in over the next hour or so.

                                Under
                                SF/MIA, 4%
                                Comment
                                • Beatdabookie123
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 07-30-16
                                  • 89

                                  #471
                                  It's all good let's shake that loss off the rest will be winners
                                  Comment
                                  • thekoreanmang
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-17-14
                                    • 1422

                                    #472
                                    Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                    Well, that sucked...

                                    Just getting around to capping now, picks will trickle in over the next hour or so.

                                    Under
                                    SF/MIA, 4%
                                    The starting pitchers in this one make me cringe a little for a first inning under. Doubledime also has this game as an over. I know a full game bet doesn't coincide with first inning bets but just thought I'd share my thought process.
                                    Comment
                                    • tcarn01
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-27-09
                                      • 1993

                                      #473
                                      Why did that suck? I had the under at 6.5 in the first five
                                      Comment
                                      • TechnicalTrader
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-09-16
                                        • 1434

                                        #474
                                        Originally posted by thekoreanmang
                                        The starting pitchers in this one make me cringe a little for a first inning under. Doubledime also has this game as an over. I know a full game bet doesn't coincide with first inning bets but just thought I'd share my thought process.
                                        Yep, I also noticed that. The only thing which is pointing to an over in the first to me is the fact that MIA have done it twice in the last three.. That's it, so many other reasons to take the under...

                                        Next two:

                                        ATL/MIL, over - 3%
                                        HOU/MIN, under - 3%
                                        Comment
                                        • tcarn01
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-27-09
                                          • 1993

                                          #475
                                          I have and following you on over and unders in the first five innings. I just realized that this is over under in the first inning. What an idiot I am. Although I would say I am not doing that bad and shooting a pretty good percentage. You might want to look at that.
                                          Comment
                                          • Beatdabookie123
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 07-30-16
                                            • 89

                                            #476
                                            Originally posted by tcarn01
                                            I have and following you on over and unders in the first five innings. I just realized that this is over under in the first inning. What an idiot I am. Although I would say I am not doing that bad and shooting a pretty good percentage. You might want to look at that.
                                            Lol I was doing the same thing at first and wasn't doing bad either haha
                                            Comment
                                            • jlani93
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 05-06-16
                                              • 107

                                              #477
                                              Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                              Well, that sucked...

                                              Just getting around to capping now, picks will trickle in over the next hour or so.

                                              Under
                                              SF/MIA, 4%
                                              Thanks TT! Quick question...Are today's picks using the new system you were testing yesterday? (So I know whether to keep my bet size the same as yesterday or go back to my original amount). Thanks again!
                                              Comment
                                              • TechnicalTrader
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-09-16
                                                • 1434

                                                #478
                                                last one:

                                                CWS/KC, under 4%

                                                I'm off to bed. Looking forward to a larger BR tomorrow morning.
                                                Comment
                                                • TechnicalTrader
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-09-16
                                                  • 1434

                                                  #479
                                                  Originally posted by jlani93
                                                  Thanks TT! Quick question...Are today's picks using the new system you were testing yesterday? (So I know whether to keep my bet size the same as yesterday or go back to my original amount). Thanks again!
                                                  Yes, the old system isn't giving me one decent sign. I think the system I was using only really performs in the first half of the season.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TechnicalTrader
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-09-16
                                                    • 1434

                                                    #480
                                                    Originally posted by tcarn01
                                                    I have and following you on over and unders in the first five innings. I just realized that this is over under in the first inning. What an idiot I am. Although I would say I am not doing that bad and shooting a pretty good percentage. You might want to look at that.
                                                    Interesting! I'll look in to that!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • theSleeper
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 11-03-09
                                                      • 14

                                                      #481
                                                      Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                      Interesting! I'll look in to that!
                                                      I think 2 sites I use, 5Dimes and Heritage, simply are 'Yes' or 'No' score in 1st inning. Haven't seen one yet that uses over/under .5 runs.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • blackHIPPY
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-01-14
                                                        • 3973

                                                        #482
                                                        Originally posted by tcarn01
                                                        I have and following you on over and unders in the first five innings. I just realized that this is over under in the first inning. What an idiot I am. Although I would say I am not doing that bad and shooting a pretty good percentage. You might want to look at that.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • thekoreanmang
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-17-14
                                                          • 1422

                                                          #483
                                                          0-4.....
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TechnicalTrader
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-09-16
                                                            • 1434

                                                            #484
                                                            Terrible day. I am going to take a few days off and rethink this. The system is obviously not working like it was pre-AS break. I just need to figure out what needs to be changed.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TechnicalTrader
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-09-16
                                                              • 1434

                                                              #485
                                                              My only plays today would be:

                                                              Overs
                                                              BAL/OAK
                                                              CLE/WAS

                                                              I'd risk 4% on both of them.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • TechnicalTrader
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-09-16
                                                                • 1434

                                                                #486
                                                                Old system has TEX/COL over at 3%
                                                                Comment
                                                                • oilcountry99
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 08-29-10
                                                                  • 707

                                                                  #487
                                                                  Originally posted by white powder
                                                                  tt is your nickname on ff same as here? and where should i look for your thread, inside the interactive trading, trading systems, trading discussion, trading journals or rookie talk maybe?
                                                                  Were you able to find the thread?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • TechnicalTrader
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-09-16
                                                                    • 1434

                                                                    #488
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • thekoreanmang
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-17-14
                                                                      • 1422

                                                                      #489
                                                                      Did you bet these or are you just sharing for monitoring purposes?

                                                                      In any event, thanks and good luck, my friend. Sometimes a one-day break or more can help.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • oilcountry99
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 08-29-10
                                                                        • 707

                                                                        #490
                                                                        Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                                        Thanks TT!
                                                                        Comment
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