Good work
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You'll likely end up positive. Some negative volatility last couple of days but not too bad. Overall, days are positive and TT knows what he's doing. It would seem that since these bets are contained within one inning, the variables that would affect outcomes are minimized as opposed to a full game bet or even a first five inning bet. You're reliant on the first three to five batters or so, the starting pitcher, the park and ump maybe.Comment -
Good day today. Thanks TT!
I missed the TEX/BAL game so today was a 4-0 day for me. On a hunch I took the UNDER .5 on KC/TB.
I was leaning towards the OVER .5. I saw Kennedy was 8-21 and Smyly was 6-20 for allowing 1st inning runs, and the O/U was expected to go OVER. (I would have bet the OVER if the game total was O/U 8 or 8.5).Comment -
Good stuff! I never cap a gae based on stats dated that far back. Jordan Zimmerman is a prime example of a pitcher who is completely different than what we have seen during the beginning of the season. Or better yet, would you use Clay Bucholz' lifetime stats if you were to cap him or would you use his current stats?? Good day today. Thanks TT!
I missed the TEX/BAL game so today was a 4-0 day for me. On a hunch I took the UNDER .5 on KC/TB.
I was leaning towards the OVER .5. I saw Kennedy was 8-21 and Smyly was 6-20 for allowing 1st inning runs, and the O/U was expected to go OVER. (I would have bet the OVER if the game total was O/U 8 or 8.5).
I'm off to work and will update the numbers lately. Just by looking at my daily number on 5dimes it looks like I got back all but about $80-$90 which is only about 4.5% of my BR. I'll be looking to get that back soon and should have Friday's numbers up a goodhour to two hours before the opening games.Comment -
So, during that pullback period the system went 12-11 and loss $85.87 (4.26%). Here are the updated numbers:
Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 108-67
Total Profit: 175.60%
Bankroll day 45: $1929.23
Hit rate: 61.71%
My goal is to get the total back up over $2K and triple the account by mid next week. I am only 9% away from 2.1K. One last note, last night picks risk %'s were all based off of a BR of 2K (was in the gym when I placed them), so I actually risked a bit more than what I posted, in other words my current BR should be a little lower than it currently is.
Putting in work now, crunching some numbers. Let's do it!Comment -
Get 'em, TT!Comment -
Anyone in here betting the NFL interested in a very, very sweet parlay?? Check this out:
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All overs:
SF/WAS, 4%
BAL/CWS, 3%
TOR/KC, 4%
MIA/COL, 3%
BOS/LAD, 4%
LAA/SEA, 4%
PHI/SD, 3%Comment -
4:3, up a little over 2% on the night.
Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 112-70
Total Profit: 182.36%
Bankroll day 46: $1976.55
Hit rate: 61.53%Last edited by TechnicalTrader; 08-06-16, 02:20 AM.Comment -
over:
MIL/ARZ, 4%
under:
BOS/LAD, 3%
BAL/CWS, 3%
LAA/SEA, 3%Comment -
U DA MAN TT!
Lets get it. BOL as always!!
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2:2, flat on the night. Still waiting for that streak to start!
Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 114-72
Total Profit: 181.82%
Bankroll day 46: $1972.72
Hit rate: 61.29%Comment -
Over
NYM/DET, 3%
MIL/ARZ, 4%
LAA/SEA, 3%
BOS/LAD, 3%
Under
CLE/NYY, 3%
TEX/HOU, 5%Comment -
Let's goooooo!Comment -
adding PHI/SD over, 3%Comment -
Wonder if post-ASB volatility is hitting and if the breakout just might not come despite best efforts.Comment -
The fact that teams are much different than they were before the break is screwing everything up (I think). It just seems like not all of the plays are "bullet proof" like they were a few weeks ago.
I should be able to get some more work in tomorrow at the office, I have a few ideas and will(!) turn this around. These breakeven days are getting annoying!
As of now, we are up 1.5%/portfolio, if the BOS/LAD game wins, we'll have ourselves a +5%, if we lose it we'll be down a little over 2%. That PHI/SD decision could save the day...Comment -
Money in the bank!Comment -
Missed the PHI/SD play. Wished I had seen it. Good job on it. What made you pick it later on and not in the original group of plays? Did you not get a chance to review it first time around or did a second look make it look better?
Post-ASB there's a lot of player movement, teams' playoff chances are becoming finalized and player motivations are probably a lot different than pre-ASB.
What do you think could be different? Emphasis or de-emphasis on certain factors?
Anyway, good job overall whether you win or lose. I'm not worried about recent sub-par performance with the system. However, I have to consider what I'd like to do with my current bankroll: Cash out and wait til football or keep going to see if the roll can get any bigger. I'm already down a little bit from peak so I'm trying to make the best decision now so I don't regret anything later.Comment -
I'm still totally with TT, not even close to shutting it down on the season. I also look at 1st Inning props and use some basic analytics, so seeing his choices helps validate some of my on edge decisions - the man is right over 50% of the time. We don't see this too often.
I respect the time and effort TT is taking and I've added his picks to my suite of baseball betting. He definitely knows his stuff.
Keep doing great work - of course we're going to have short term downturns, just like that run of 4-1, 5-1 days.Comment -
Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 118-75
Total Profit: 196.30%
Bankroll day 48: $2074.09
Hit rate: 61.13%Comment -
Good work in here man. Keep grinding.Comment -
Thanks.
Currently looking at three overs and three unders. I'll be trying something new today, so if you are tailing please reduce your unit size. As usual, I'll be listing the %/portfolio at risk, which will be between ONLY 2% and 3%.
I am trying to gather more info and the backtests are showing a slightly better hit rate at around 63.3%. That 2% difference could be huge but my backtesting results only go back 120 games, which is not a huge sample size. Let's see what these picks do today.Comment -
Overs:
ATL/MIL 3%
HOU/MIN 3%
PHI/LAD 3%
Unders :
TB/TOR 3%
SF/MIA 2%
TEX/COL 3%Comment -
contribution to a society
i saw tt discovering another good capper and typing this
' Just discovered this thread now. Shame on me.
Great job and thank you for your work. I'll be tailing you also.
Have a great day and keep up the excellent work!
Cheers,
TT '
well shame on me also because i thought u guys track more good cappers than i do lol, i am not good at capping baseball picks but i have learned a thing or two about finding a good pick (my starting BR says so, for now hehe) so to contribute to this thread ill post my cappers from best to worst (worst ones hit around 55-57% so they are actually good).
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...261228&page=13 - wild cat, he posts like 3 4 times a month only which is bad but if u look at his score while he used to post every day u will see why i still track him.
- davy dave , if we compare his win rate, he is neck to neck with cat, tt and lep ( yeah the LEP), his pick selection is only 1 or 2 picks per day but damn hes good.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...Kw0/edit#gid=0 - happy kane, he went into a 10 days of tie/loosing day streaks after the all star break, fell from some 30 units to 24 25, check out where he stands now, he keeps a good records of everything that he plays, he also asked for some help with his spreadsheets so if someone have time, message him.
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/f5...61/index2.html - CC, not bad for now but i just track him i dont play his picks, he went too much up and down for my taste, but still a good capper and i thanks for his efforts.
http://spaces.covers.com/ozaii890 - this one seems like hes new to a baseball, something like me but his stats are very good (1st half at around 58 59%), i dont play his picks yet but i might start to do that
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...262893&page=23 - bookie killer, a good capper around 55% hit rate, a lot of picks each day but he only keeps unit record not wl (i counted it some 20 days ago and posted into his thread so u can check it all) and i bet the similar way as tt (flat bets, not unit bets)
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...izados-p6.html - a new guy, hits around 54% but with odds of 2.05 and more, if u play all his picks and he continues to keep em at 54 math says that u can make money.
- tommy karate, around 55% hit rate with nice odds, if someone could explain me what do his M1,2,8 bets mean i would be grateful because i have no clue what do they talk about, ppl ask what does that mean but none of them replies.
and last but not least
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...2277202&page=6 - bevoaustintx, not mlb capper ( he have many threads but this one seems best of them) but wnba and hes killing. with a hit rate of some 57% and average odd of 1.9 or more i think hes worth of tracking. the only problem is, for 5 games hes gonna post like 20 picks so i still couldnt figure out how to play his bets because sometimes hes like 15 of 20 and sometimes 2, 3 nights in a row hes like 6 out of 20 or 7 out of 20 so basically 2 bad nights and 3%,4% BR per unit betting means bye bye to your money ( im thinking maybe flat bets with each bet being 1.5 to 2% of my BR, i know its pathetic investment but he can be dangerous lol).
also when you see NY Knight post some picks on cappersmall forum i recommend checking out that post ( that guy is crazy hes hitting like +70% but he posted less than 50 picks through all season). also as i saw his conversation with other lads i noticed that his main sport is nfl so mine and your betting days might become even more interesting in next few months.
there u go, i have a few more in my bookmark page but i dont track them so i wont post
gl and brgds everyone, lets kill the bookies, yeeeehawComment -
also here u have free picks from so called EXPERTS, and i must admitt they might not be good as tt and few other guys but u can definitely make some money if u play their picksLast edited by SBR Ivy; 05-09-17, 10:49 AM.Comment -
Wow WP, it looks like you put some serious effort in to analyzing peoples systems, which is great. Have you ever thought about attempting to cap yourself? I think the hardest thing about capping is discipline and money management, not really the system. Sort of like trading fx...Comment
