o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by MoMoney2

Not liking the over in the BOS/ARZ game? Everything that I have been looking at suggest this to be a strong play. Curious what your signals are saying to keep you off of this game.

Thanks for all the work and time you have put into this, you got me hooked on this prop betting! I really like the last thing you put into your last post about Vegas not having time to be precise in prop capping.

Yes, the ARZ/BOS game is a boarderline over game, but....... BUT, Buchholz can be a sneaky under (not over) against certain teams like the Yankees at home with an ace up against him or other bad first inning scoring games. Bradley.... Yes, easy over guy but not Buch.

TechnicalTrader · 08-13-16, 11:27 AM

I've been back and forth on the DET/TEX game. Feel free to take it if any of you are getting decent signals. I'm ok with the amount of picks I have now. The DET/TEX game would've been added if I only had 3 or 4 other picks.

TechnicalTrader · 08-14-16, 02:54 AM

Not a great day but at least two of the losses weren't the 4%ers! Went 2 for 5, looking to bounce back today and get a nice streak started.

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 130-88
Total Profit: 163%
Bankroll day 52: $1840.95

Hit rate: 59.63%

TechnicalTrader · 08-14-16, 10:06 AM

Under
KC/MIN 3%

Over
PIT/LAD 3%
ATL/WSH 3%
ARZ/BOS 3%
LAA/CLE 2%
BAL/SF2%
SEA/OAK 5%
STL/CHC 3%

pairadux · 08-14-16, 04:23 PM

TT,

When I tried to change the parameters to a different pitcher on that link you posted to killersports/sdql, I kept getting an error.

What does the query string look like to not get an error? Below is me copying your string of Verdana to Wade Leblanc - but I get an error (104 - check your query again).

season = 2016 and starter = wade leblanc and R1 < 1

Thanks for you help, my 1st Inning Brother.

Harley

TechnicalTrader · 08-14-16, 04:32 PM

Be precise rgding upper and lower case. it works fine for me. Try a pitcher with a simple name like Cole Hamels.

pairadux · 08-14-16, 05:26 PM

Yeah, the upper lowercase thing worked. I tried earlier with MadBum, but only did lower case. Thanks.

Are the results that returned just that pitcher's 1st inning results, or the game's first inning results?

TechnicalTrader · 08-15-16, 12:10 AM

5 for 8, I'll get the numbers up later. Not too happy that the Seattle game didn't work out...

TechnicalTrader · 08-15-16, 09:43 AM

Looking at about four bets today, all overs.

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 135-91
Total Profit: 172.22%
Bankroll day 53: $1905.41

Hit rate: 59.73%

doubledime · 08-15-16, 10:50 AM

Very good job.

thekoreanmang · 08-15-16, 11:03 AM

Lit's git it, mi amigo!

I wonder if it might be a good idea to flat bet everything?

TechnicalTrader · 08-15-16, 11:06 AM

Under
KC/DET 2%

Over
BOS/CLE 3%
SD/TB 2%
OAK/TEX 4%
NYM/ARZ 3%

TechnicalTrader · 08-15-16, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Lit's git it, mi amigo!

I wonder if it might be a good idea to flat bet everything?

Already placed them, maybe tmrw.

oilcountry99 · 08-15-16, 11:16 AM

Been running these selections on a Labby line with success

doubledime · 08-15-16, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

Been running these selections on a Labby line with success

With multiple plays how do you determine which play goes on which Labby line? One line could wind up with all, or most of the losers.

doubledime · 08-15-16, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Under
KC/DET 2%

Over
BOS/CLE 3%
SD/TB 2%
OAK/TEX 4%
NYM/ARZ 3%

You first half, relievers second half...... we may have something here.

BOL

oilcountry99 · 08-15-16, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

With multiple plays how do you determine which play goes on which Labby line? One line could wind up with all, or most of the losers.

I run all plays on 1 line. At the end of the day I subtract 2 numbers for each win. Then I add one number for each loss to the end of my line. After I add the losses I total up all the numbers and divide by the total numbers in the line.

A simple example

10-10-10-10

I have 5 bets on the day going 1-4. lets assume -110 odds for the example.

1 win = $20
4 losses = -$80.80

New line:

x-10-10-x-20.2-20.2-20.2-20.2

16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8

Therefor the next set of wagers will be to win $33.4, total up the end of the day, redistribute numbers and carry on.

doubledime · 08-15-16, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

I run all plays on 1 line. At the end of the day I subtract 2 numbers for each win. Then I add one number for each loss to the end of my line. After I add the losses I total up all the numbers and divide by the total numbers in the line.

A simple example

10-10-10-10

I have 5 bets on the day going 1-4. lets assume -110 odds for the example.

1 win = $20
4 losses = -$80.80

New line:

x-10-10-x-20.2-20.2-20.2-20.2

16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8-16.8

Therefor the next set of wagers will be to win $33.4, total up the end of the day, redistribute numbers and carry on.

Thank you Sir

oilcountry99 · 08-15-16, 01:43 PM

I messed up POST #542

Labby Line should read:

10-10-10-10-20.20-20.20-20.20 (days losses)

redistribute
11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5

next set of wagers will be to WIN $23

sorry about that.

oilcountry99 · 08-15-16, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

I messed up POST #542

Labby Line should read:

10-10-10-10-20.20-20.20-20.20 (days losses)

redistribute
11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5

next set of wagers will be to WIN $23

sorry about that.

next day you go 3-1

new line
11.5-11.5-11.5

doubledime · 08-15-16, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

I messed up POST #542

Labby Line should read:

10-10-10-10-20.20-20.20-20.20 (days losses)

redistribute
11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5-11.5

next set of wagers will be to WIN $23

sorry about that.

So you redistribute each day, correct?

oilcountry99 · 08-15-16, 02:31 PM

Correct

white powder · 08-15-16, 03:49 PM

contribution to a society

lol guys look what i have found, track this one, he posts a lot of picks per day so maybe it would't be wise to track and play his picks immediately but if he continues to have over 58% hit rate with an average odd of around 1.90 - 2.05 (lol what a nice odd) i think we could say hes a real deal

doubledime · 08-15-16, 09:58 PM

Nice night TT

TechnicalTrader · 08-16-16, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

Nice night TT

Thank you kind sir! Looks like you had yourself a day also. We need to team up and put together a sure-shot Vegas killing system! LOL

Went 4 for 6 last night. Should've flat bet everything like Mang mentioned!

Looking to get my hit rate back over 60% over the next few days. My goal is to end "well" over 60% and by well over I am aiming for 61%. Let's do it!!

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 139-93
Total Profit: 183.39%
Bankroll day 54: $1987.62

Hit rate: 59.91%

TechnicalTrader · 08-16-16, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by white powder

lol guys look what i have found, track this one, he posts a lot of picks per day so maybe it would't be wise to track and play his picks immediately but if he continues to have over 58% hit rate with an average odd of around 1.90 - 2.05 (lol what a nice odd) i think we could say hes a real deal

Interesting numbers. Dude looks like a beast!

TechnicalTrader · 08-16-16, 04:56 AM

I am getting 9 over signals today but my issue is the league has been over performing in the 1st inning over teams' last 12 games. Teams have been scoring 52% of the time in the first. That number should be around 30-35%. I'm not sure if I should sit out today or just reduce all stakes. This league "hot streak" could last for a few days. The question is; Ride it or wait it out....

The best example is the SD/TB matchup, TB has scored in 8 of their last 12 games, SD 5 of their last 12.

Thoughts anyone?

doubledime · 08-16-16, 06:03 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

I am getting 9 over signals today but my issue is the league has been over performing in the 1st inning over teams' last 12 games. Teams have been scoring 52% of the time in the first. That number should be around 30-35%. I'm not sure if I should sit out today or just reduce all stakes. This league "hot streak" could last for a few days. The question is; Ride it or wait it out....

The best example is the SD/TB matchup, TB has scored in 8 of their last 12 games, SD 5 of their last 12.

Thoughts anyone?

I know the feeling. What I do when this happens is make the "bar" higher for my plays. This eliminates some plays. Of course some of those plays that I eliminated go onto win, but at least I know that I played my absolute best plays.

TechnicalTrader · 08-16-16, 06:47 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

I am getting 9 over signals today but my issue is the league has been over performing in the 1st inning over teams' last 12 games. Teams have been scoring 52% of the time in the first. That number should be around 30-35%. I'm not sure if I should sit out today or just reduce all stakes. This league "hot streak" could last for a few days. The question is; Ride it or wait it out....

The best example is the SD/TB matchup, TB has scored in 8 of their last 12 games, SD 5 of their last 12.

Thoughts anyone?

EDIT!!! My bad, the league avg over the last 12 games IS 35%, right where it should be. I had a feeling I was calculating something wrong and sure enough I was!

With that said, i will try to pick my 6 favorites and bet 3% each. I will post my second tier picks for those who would like to trail all selections. Picks coming soon!

white powder · 08-16-16, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Thank you kind sir! Looks like you had yourself a day also. We need to team up and put together a sure-shot Vegas killing system! LOL

Went 4 for 6 last night. Should've flat bet everything like Mang mentioned!

Looking to get my hit rate back over 60% over the next few days. My goal is to end "well" over 60% and by well over I am aiming for 61%. Let's do it!!

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 139-93
Total Profit: 183.39%
Bankroll day 54: $1987.62

Hit rate: 59.91%

i dunno how to tell this story to be understandable to you guy but here we go

listen tt and dd, i started to bet on your picks and on some other guys like davy dave and others that i mentioned in one post few days ago. 80% of my daily bets are picks that you 2 post. 1 st day i went 15% down in my bankroll because of a mistake, i played total instead of 1st inning, after that my br started to go up most of the days. even though last month was not succesfull for you two as month prior to all star break, with mostly your picks i managed to get my br increased by about 95% even though i made mistake and lost 15% the very first day and i also lost some 20-25% few days ago when you both went like 2 for 6. but thats not the point of this story, the point is that i mainly use flat betting on your picks for example, davy dave posts a pick per day but hit rate is 65% till today so i always bet 5% of my br on his picks, if tt posts 3 and 4% picks i follow that with 4 % for all of them and if he posts 2% picks i follow all night with 3% for each one, dd's bets i follow with 2 or 3 (depending onto if i consider most of them good or bad). i must also add that i missed 4 nights and two of thoose night were when you guys went like 14 - 3 -1 (the best nights in whole month). what i wanted to explain here is, i consider that my br increased better because of flat betting every night.

white powder · 08-16-16, 08:00 AM

yeah he went 13-7 last night i followed him with 1.5% on each pick but one ( dd posted over on miami i think so i followed dd's advice and won, thanks dd), but if you look at his stats on 300 picks hes better at ml than ou even though hes doin good at both types of bets. so if he continues to perform well and someone follows him, you and dd , that's awesome man i mean u can bet 3 different bets on 1 pick and win like 2 of 3 constantly

white powder · 08-16-16, 08:04 AM

contribution to a society

also tt check this out, and other ones ofc

read every single post, i think guys have found something that also works, tonight im live betting with mix of your picks and their system

TechnicalTrader · 08-16-16, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by white powder

also tt check this out, and other ones ofc

read every single post, i think guys have found something that also works, tonight im live betting with mix of your picks and their system

Very interesting. i've been saying this for months. The only real way to beat the books is beat them where they are sleeping... Good stuff!

TechnicalTrader · 08-16-16, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by white powder

also tt check this out, and other ones ofc

read every single post, i think guys have found something that also works, tonight im live betting with mix of your picks and their system

His system loss last night!

Bet A record: 8:2 Profit: 6.4U
Bet B record: 1:0 Profit: 0.8U
Bet C record: 0:1 Profit: -8.32U

Here is what happened:
Game 1 through 3 all won on Bet A
Game 4 loss on Bet C (Runs in the 2nd, 7th and 8th inning)
Game 5 and 6 went to Bet B
Game 7 and 8 all won on Bet A
Game 9 won on Bet B
Game 10 won on Bet A

Let's assume you risked 1%/BR on your first bet with an 80% return. Then martingaled, calculating a .8% return after each string of bets. You would've won 9 of them, with a return of 7.2%. Your single loss would've been 8.32%!

Here's the math, again assuming the line remains at .80. Bet a) 1%, Bet B) 2.25%, Bet C) 5.07%

August 14th: 12 winners and 3 losers: 9.6% on the 12 winners, -24.96% on the three losers (HOU/TOR, BAL/SF, SEA/OAK). There goes 15% of your BR....

Correct me if I misread something.

white powder · 08-16-16, 09:05 AM

hehe u are right but read every single post, no one said there will be no losses, but check out how much winning nights there are and which teams to avoid to minimize losses as much as possible.