Damn it. Hawk007 is on Yes 1st Inn Score NYM/SF. And, of course, runners on first and third in the top of the first with no one at the time of writing this. Hawk007 has been on fire lately.
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I've been evolving my system this year. I had been using 1st inning success home/away splits in addition to pitcher OPS in the 1st. Had some success with that, but made some changes when I noticed that my 70% combos and 80% combos always seemed to hit in a series, even though the OPS was all over the place. Now I roll with the split and added an indicator for "first inning allowed" suckage (for lack of a better term. So if the offense hits at 70%+ and the team allows at 60%+, I'll three game chase.
I know, I know - chasing is dangerous. So far the strategy has been solid. The only miss was that sf/wash series right after the ASB. Knock on wood.
There have been times when you and I have been on the opposite side of the board. I've won some and lost some. But when I see yours on the same side as mine (chc/col last night), I get pumped knowing we'll probably both be right - and that happens a lot.
I've also added a TT Pick section on my spreadsheet where I've noticed you're particularly successful on your 4%ers, so I trail those with a low level labby experimentation.
As for thoughts on today, AZ/SD and Tor/Cle are probably my favorites (trailed az/sd) based on how they're both 70%ers.
BTW - 20 posts, baby. Now I can PM!Comment -
I couldn't commit to either Yes or No on NYM/SF today.
Last night I added NYM/SF-YES for today's game. MLB's sortable pitcher/1st inning stats lists Moore with 3ER in 3IP with a 9.00 ERA, and Colon with 11ER in 23IP with a 4.24 ERA.
After seeing today's picks I spent the last 2 hours asking my husband what he thought (something I rarely do). Haha. He was leaning more towards NO, so I decided to just skip it completely.Comment -
Interesting fact:
I've gone 18:18 over the last 6 days. If I would've duplicated the bet (over or under) and played it in the second, the 2nd inning bets would've gone 14:7.
Now most 2nd inning overs are priced around +110 - +120, while the unders are around -130. Taking in to consideration that most of my picks are overs, a trailing system might work here.
i am not saying you should double up in the second, just repeat the bet and you might end up only losing juice on my losing bets.
Last night:
Overs
HOU/BAL, 2% 1st won (total profit, 1.5%)
TOR/CLE, 2% 1st loss, 2nd won (juice only) (total loss 1%)
WSH/ATL, 3% 1st loss, 2nd won (juice only) (total loss 1%)
ARZ/SD, 4% 1st loss, 2nd loss (total loss ca. 9%)
Under
NYM/SF, 3% 1st loss, 2nd won (total profit 2.5%)
So my losses from yesterday would've been reduced from -12.5% to ca. -7%
I might have to give this a shot... Thoughts anyone?
Or better yet, anyone feel like backtesting my bets back a few weeks??
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Check out August 14th:
These went 5:3, adding the 2nd inning we would've gone 8:3. That's a huge difference right there.
62.5% to 72.7%.
Let's see how this will work tonight. I'll get the plays up in a few hours.Comment -
Damn. Sounds like something better than a hunch. You've got good instincts for this. Hopefully I can tail. Might not have time today. Good luck. Sounds promising.Comment -
OK, I've decided to switch it up again... This is how the new system works.
First and foremost, the nature of this system is to find real, real good under plays. Why, a) The under's payout is almost always higher, b) this system seems to work better on the unders.
Here's how it will work:
EVERY PLAY needs to be followed live, if the first inning does not win, simply take the same bet in the second. I will leave it up to you if you'd like to double up, I might not. Just not too sure right now. The signals I am getting on these plays are the strongest ever! My rough estimation is a hit rate of ca. 72%!! No joke!
Soooo, once again, if you can't place live in game bets, please don't give this a shot. Sorry.
Also be careful with 5dimes, I've noticed that they take the 2nd inning bet down during the second out of the bottom of the 1st and do not go live with it until there is one out in the second. In other words, the lines are warped... I'll be looking for a better in-game book next to my secondary book, marathonbet.
Here are today's bets:
OVER
LAD/CIN, 3% (for those who are martingaling, don't go highert han 2%, because if you lose both the hit will be hard!!)
UNDER
TOR/CLE 4%
HOU/BAL 4%
STL/PHI 4%
WSH/ATL 3%
MIN/KC 4%
So in other words, I am counting on a run being scored at least once during the first two innings of the CIN game, and aiming for a shutout inning in all of the other ones.
I hope this all makes sense. If not, ask! That's what I'm here for.
Let's kill it today!! No way in hell my head is going to drop, coming back like nothing hit me!!!
One last thing: I will only be taking games which start before 7:40PM EST. I'll post all bet's but will not be able to play the second inning of any game after 7:40PM EST.Comment -
Good work.
If you youre just playing first inning and not chasing you're suggesting to bet the amount you state? But if you are chasing then bet no more than 2%?Comment -
I'd recommend no more than 2% on the first bet if you are chasing. I'd also take in to consideration how many bets I have out there. If I place 12 bets and you are risking 2% per bet, chasing each. Worst case scenario, you lose 60-70% of BR. Not that I see something like taht happening, just saying....Comment -
Okay. But your risk percentages are at 3-4%. These %s are for those just playing 1st inning? It's not clear because you're saying don't play these at all if you can't bet them live.Comment -
My bad, this is what I mean:
If you would like to chase, reduce your unit size by about half of what you usually do. If you are going to chase with a martingale technique, I'd personally risk no more than 1.5% of your bankroll because the lines we are going to get aren't going to be great in the second (on the unders).If you risk, let's say $100 on the first inning,it fails, your live bet will be about $235. If you are just looking to add an additional bet, go with maybe something a little smaller than your standard unit size. Let's say $150, then another $150 live. By winning the second bet, you should be able to decrease your loss by about 50%...
The %'s I'm posting is what I am going with. If all bets lose today, I will lose 44% of BR. I am willing to bet 44% of my BR that it will not happen...
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Ok. That's clear.
When you say the following:
"The signals I am getting on these plays are the strongest ever! My rough estimation is a hit rate of ca. 72%!! No joke!"
are you saying that that hit rate is for both first and second inning combined? If so, the rate is much less for 1st inning alone?Comment -
Who has second inning live bets?Interesting fact:
I've gone 18:18 over the last 6 days. If I would've duplicated the bet (over or under) and played it in the second, the 2nd inning bets would've gone 14:7.
Now most 2nd inning overs are priced around +110 - +120, while the unders are around -130. Taking in to consideration that most of my picks are overs, a trailing system might work here.
i am not saying you should double up in the second, just repeat the bet and you might end up only losing juice on my losing bets.
Last night:
Overs
HOU/BAL, 2% 1st won (total profit, 1.5%)
TOR/CLE, 2% 1st loss, 2nd won (juice only) (total loss 1%)
WSH/ATL, 3% 1st loss, 2nd won (juice only) (total loss 1%)
ARZ/SD, 4% 1st loss, 2nd loss (total loss ca. 9%)
Under
NYM/SF, 3% 1st loss, 2nd won (total profit 2.5%)
So my losses from yesterday would've been reduced from -12.5% to ca. -7%
I might have to give this a shot... Thoughts anyone?
Or better yet, anyone feel like backtesting my bets back a few weeks??Comment -
So for the "bet it and forget it" crowd, sit everything out or just reduce on the first inning play?Comment -
I find this thread one of the most interesting and appreciate your work. Checking scoring by innings at I was surprised at some differences between teams.Last edited by SBR Ivy; 05-09-17, 10:55 AM.Comment -
Be careful because "runs scored by inning" is not the same as scoring % per inning... A few big innings can throw that stat off easily, considering teams have scored an avg of 67.5 runs in the first. two or three 6 run innings will make a low scoring % team look like a top scoring % team.Last edited by SBR Ivy; 05-09-17, 10:55 AM.Comment -
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Pounded all of these plays not gonna be able to bet 2nd inning so let's win em all first
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3 and 1 so far.taking STL/PHI -no run in the 2nd- Looking to cover my loss and add 1%Comment -
So far, so good:
LAD/CIN, 3% WON
UNDER
TOR/CLE 4% WON
HOU/BAL 4% PENDING
STL/PHI 4% Loss 1st, WON second (Total Profit 1%)
WSH/ATL 3% WON
MIN/KC 4% WON
Up 12%, yesterday's loss almost erased!
EDIT; not quite 15%...Last edited by TechnicalTrader; 08-21-16, 02:14 PM.Comment -
That's amazing. Good job. Of course, I took your recommendation and passed on all because I couldn't play the 2nd live. Damn.Comment -
Yeah. S'all good. Glad that you're back on track although I don't know if you were over off track. After all, you pretty much have a half season of awesome results with a first time system.
Were the variables you looked at the same for today but just to account for the 2nd inning as well?Comment -
The data I go through in order to cap these types of plays is much less than what I do for the normal plays. I think it would make the most sense to just give you guys two different selections of picks. System A will be the old system, where you can trail in the second if you like and system B, where a trail is necessary. That would make the most sense.Comment -
Yesterday's results:
LAD/CIN, 3% WON
UNDER
TOR/CLE 4% WON
HOU/BAL 4% WON
STL/PHI 4% Loss 1st, WON second (Total Profit 1%)
WSH/ATL 3% WON
MIN/KC 4% WON
Added a cool 16% to the BR yesterday and looking to keep it going today. I'll cap today's games with the old system later today and post those picks in a few hours. Below are system 2's picks for today. None of them are as strong as yesterday's picks, therefore I am reducing risk. Also not that these picks are intended to win "the first two innings" so you are going to have to trail if the first inning loses!
Overs
LAD/CIN, 1.5%
COL/MIL, 1.5%
Unders
HOU/PIT, 1.5%
BOS/TB, 1.5%
Your trailing bet should be around 3.3% / BR so if you are not willing to risk 4.5 - 5% per bet, please reduce the first bet's unit size to maybe 1% or even 0.5%. DO NOT risk more than 3% on the first inning picks, if all four picks fail and you trail each one, you will lose about 45% of your BR!!! I've warned you!! I should've never risked that much yesterday!
I will have plenty of time this offseason to do a more detailed analysis and will have a detailed thread by openning day.Comment
