o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

[blackHIPPY]

ok, i'll wait for your original system plays then.
what kinda odds are you getting on these 2nd inning bets?
and where does bookmaker show these lines for live betting? couldn't find yesterday.

[TechnicalTrader]

ok, i'll wait for your original system plays then.
what kinda odds are you getting on these 2nd inning bets?
and where does bookmaker show these lines for live betting? couldn't find yesterday.

Around -130

Not sure where Bookmaker has it. Don't they have a "live" or "in Play" tab while games are being played??

[TechnicalTrader]

Here we go, today's "regular" plays:

Feel free to trail, it should work as it has in the past but these picks were selected to perform in the first. I'd be careful with the WAS/BAL pick. We've seen what Stras can do in the first two innings...lol

Overs:
ATL/ARZ, 4%
HOU/PIT, 3%
COL/MIL, 3%

Under
WAS/BAL, 2%


Let's do this. Now I just need to stay up for these damn 7PM games....

[TechnicalTrader]

Updated numbers:

Over the last three days I went 11-8 (including the chase on last night's Phillies game) while adding $112.98 to the BR. Yesterday's 6-0 (5-1 without the chase) really got me back on track. i am not expecting that to happen today but am looking forward to adding some more money to this BR. I am also hoping to keep the BR tripled but have that $2800.00 mark right in front of me. Let's see if I can get it.

I will also only be counting the original system's bets to this BR. All new system bets will be separated!


Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 163-109
Total Profit: 232.55%
Bankroll day 61: $2327.85

Hit rate: 59.93%

[thekoreanmang]

All right! Lit's go!

Quick question though, you have an UNDER HOU/PIT play in your 2 inning system but you have the same play as an OVER in your 1st inning system. Are you banking on the OVER hitting in the 1st but UNDER in the 2nd?

[thekoreanmang]

Updated numbers:

Over the last three days I went 11-8 (including the chase on last night's Phillies game) while adding $112.98 to the BR. Yesterday's 6-0 (5-1 without the chase) really got me back on track. i am not expecting that to happen today but am looking forward to adding some more money to this BR. I am also hoping to keep the BR tripled but have that $2800.00 mark right in front of me. Let's see if I can get it.

I will also only be counting the original system's bets to this BR. All new system bets will be separated!


Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 163-109
Total Profit: 232.55%
Bankroll day 61: $2327.85

Hit rate: 59.93%

Also, really appreciate how you keep track of your numbers and keep your performance transparent and easy to understand. Very nice job.

[TechnicalTrader]

Also, really appreciate how you keep track of your numbers and keep your performance transparent and easy to understand. Very nice job.

No problem at all my man.

[TechnicalTrader]

Wow, 4 pitches and 3 runs??

On the road, looked up the game on my mlb app... $$$

Was already a little nervous because I was going to have to take the 2nd inning bet on my phone.

Anyone else take the bet?

[BIG]

Wow, 4 pitches and 3 runs??

On the road, looked up the game on my mlb app... $$$

Was already a little nervous because I was going to have to take the 2nd inning bet on my phone.

Anyone else take the bet?

Yes I was on it.

Did you see thekoreanmang question on post 705? Thanks

[TechnicalTrader]

All right! Lit's go!

Quick question though, you have an UNDER HOU/PIT play in your 2 inning system but you have the same play as an OVER in your 1st inning system. Are you banking on the OVER hitting in the 1st but UNDER in the 2nd?

Missed this, playing bith systems and taking both bets. Gotta treat them like two completely different systems...

[jefff]

pitching change for Washington. Cole for Strasburg

[TechnicalTrader]

Missed this, playing bith systems and taking both bets. Gotta treat them like two completely different systems...

Wait, let me be a little clearer with this.

Regular system is betting on a run in the first, no chase nothing
System 2 is betting on no runs in the first but it will chase if no runs are scored

4 scenarios:
1) no runs scored in the first and second: Regular system loses 3%, System 2 wins about 1.4% in the first --> Performance: -1.6%
2) runs scored in the first and second: Regular system wins about 2.8%, System 2 losses both bets (1.5% and 3.35% on the second bet) Performance: -2.05%
3) runs scored in first but not in second: Regular system wins about 2.8%, System 2 wins after a chase (1.4%) Performance: 4.2%
4) no runs scored first, runs scored in second: Regular system loses (-3%), System 2 wins 1.4%. Performance: -1.6%

For those who are trailing, I'd lay off of these types of predictions. I need to take them in order to track properly.

I hope this all make sense.

[TechnicalTrader]

pitching change for Washington. Cole for Strasburg

Thanks, letting regular bet get cancelled. Will not rebet it!

[TechnicalTrader]

Yes I was on it.

Did you see thekoreanmang question on post 705? Thanks

Yes, answered it and thanks for the points my man!!! Feels good to be appreciated and happy you guys are making some cash!

I know you guys know this already, but all of the support I get in here, keeps me going. This is OUR system! Not mine. Now let's make some more money!

[jlani93]

Wow, 4 pitches and 3 runs??

On the road, looked up the game on my mlb app... $$$

Was already a little nervous because I was going to have to take the 2nd inning bet on my phone.


Anyone else take the bet?

Taking LAD/CIN-YES + LAD + Over 8.5 was originally on my bet sheet, but I overslept and missed placing all 3.

[TechnicalTrader]

Taking LAD/CIN-YES + LAD + Over 8.5 was originally on my bet sheet, but I overslept and missed placing all 3.

MIght be a very nice parlay...

[thekoreanmang]

Wait, let me be a little clearer with this.

Regular system is betting on a run in the first, no chase nothing
System 2 is betting on no runs in the first but it will chase if no runs are scored

4 scenarios:
1) no runs scored in the first and second: Regular system loses 3%, System 2 wins about 1.4% in the first --> Performance: -1.6%
2) runs scored in the first and second: Regular system wins about 2.8%, System 2 losses both bets (1.5% and 3.35% on the second bet) Performance: -2.05%
3) runs scored in first but not in second: Regular system wins about 2.8%, System 2 wins after a chase (1.4%) Performance: 4.2%
4) no runs scored first, runs scored in second: Regular system loses (-3%), System 2 wins 1.4%. Performance: -1.6%

For those who are trailing, I'd lay off of these types of predictions. I need to take them in order to track properly.

I hope this all make sense.

Ok. So, you're recommending that when System 1 and 2 conflict with each other we lay off. But, that for you record keeping you're taking both?

[SlickRick1382]

Wow, 4 pitches and 3 runs??

On the road, looked up the game on my mlb app... $$$

Was already a little nervous because I was going to have to take the 2nd inning bet on my phone.

Anyone else take the bet?

Which? LAD / CIN?

[TechnicalTrader]

Ok. So, you're recommending that when System 1 and 2 conflict with each other we lay off. But, that for you record keeping you're taking both?

Yes

[TechnicalTrader]

Soooo, all system 2 bets cashed after the first. No need to chase. Up about 3.5% with all three of them.

The regular system is currently 1 and 1 with the PIT game not cashing and the MIL game as a winner. If the ATL/ARZ game works out, we will have ourselves a decent night, if it doesn't we will slightly be up,with the new system saving the day.

[sos41]

TT, I have lurked and mostly tailed the past month. You have been great and I am thankful for you sharing your picks and the profits. I am confused though. I understand the differences of playing the 2 systems, but for system 2, am I to assume that if you have not identified an over pick that all other games qualify for the system 2 chase?

thx sos

forget the question I did not see the recap post that included the system 2 picks

[TechnicalTrader]

TT, I have lurked and mostly tailed the past month. You have been great and I am thankful for you sharing your picks and the profits. I am confused though. I understand the differences of playing the 2 systems, but for system 2, am I to assume that if you have not identified an over pick that all other games qualify for the system 2 chase?

thx sos

forget the question I did not see the recap post that included the system 2 picks

Another awesome join date / posts ratio!!! Wowzers!!!

I'll edit post one of this thread and try to be as clear as possible. I've also decided to play these systems until the end of September, so we all still have time to make more money. Gimme a few hours in order to edit post one.

As for today... 6:1, up around 7-9%. Will do the math later.

[TechnicalTrader]

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 169-110
Total Profit: 255.07%
Bankroll day 62: $2485.51

Hit rate: 60.57%

Very happy to be back over 60%. This has been one helluva run. We should hit our 300th bet in a few weeks now. From now on I will be tracking both systems differently. The new system is 9-0, with only one bet going in to the second inning. Expect a rough day here or there, but the hit rate should be a bit higher than system 1. System 1 went 2 and 1 last night with the BAL game bet being cancelled.

----

Once again here are the rules for both systems:

System 1 (regular system))

Rules:
-Simply take the under or over (0.5 Runs) in the first inning. A lot of books have this prop listed as a run or no run in the first. Same thing.
-I've not really done enough of in depth backtesting to back this up, but you could chase the bet in to the second inning. I would not pass the second inning though. I personally will not chase with this system.
-I recommend to never bet more than 4-5% of your BR, I usually take bets between 2% and 4% depending on the strength of the signals I am getting.

Notes:
This system is pretty solid, although I've had a few days where I was breakeven or maybe down 3% - 10% of BR. For anyone looking to follow, check my last few days performance, if it is strong, take a smaller risk. If I am slumping, you might want to increase your bets, because the system might be at the bottom end of a cycle.

System 2 (new system))

Rules:
-Simply take the under or over (0.5 Runs) in the first inning. A lot of books have this prop listed as a run or no run in the first. Same thing.
-Do not take bets larger than what's recommend. If the chase bets fail, you could end up losing 20-30% of your BR in one day!
-If the bet fails, simply chase it. Up until now I chased with a 1.5 ratio. I usually look to make back half of what my initial profit target was, so if I risk 2% in the first inning and lose, I will risk enough in order to win 3%. I doubt I will be doubling up!


Notes:
This system is in it's developing phase. I will give this one a little more attention but you need to be patient. After the first two days, it has performed very well. But again, it is a chase system and you could lose 6% on any given chase/bet. I live in Europe, so I will not be betting games after 7PM EST but will post the picks. Make sure your book takes in-game 1st inning bets before you try this out.

----

[thekoreanmang]

What made you change your mind from ending the systems this Wed to extending it through the rest of the season?

[TechnicalTrader]

What made you change your mind from ending the systems this Wed to extending it through the rest of the season?

Too embarrassed to answer that....

[TechnicalTrader]

Today's picks:

System 1 (original system):

Over
BOS/TB, 3%
KC/MIA, 3%
DET/MIN, 4%
CHC/SD, 3%

Under
CLE/OAK, 3%


System 2 (chase system):

Under
BOS/TB, 1.5%
TEX/CIN, 1.5%
NYM/STL, 1.5%
CHC/SD, 1.5%

Over
ATL/ARZ, 1.5%
NYY/SEA, 1.5%

Two picks contradict eachother, best case scenario, we get a run in the first and two big goose eggs in the second. Feel free to lay off of them. I only took the BOS/TB and TEX/CIN System 2 games because I will not be able to be online during the game. I will track their performance though, despite me taking them or not.

Let me know if you guys (and gal) have any questions.

Cheers, TT

[pairadux]

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 169-110
Total Profit: 255.07%
Bankroll day 62: $2485.51

Hit rate: 60.57%

Very happy to be back over 60%. This has been one helluva run. We should hit our 300th bet in a few weeks now. From now on I will be tracking both systems differently. The new system is 9-0, with only one bet going in to the second inning. Expect a rough day here or there, but the hit rate should be a bit higher than system 1. System 1 went 2 and 1 last night with the BAL game bet being cancelled.

----

Once again here are the rules for both systems:

System 1 (regular system))

Rules:
-Simply take the under or over (0.5 Runs) in the first inning. A lot of books have this prop listed as a run or no run in the first. Same thing.
-I've not really done enough of in depth backtesting to back this up, but you could chase the bet in to the second inning. I would not pass the second inning though. I personally will not chase with this system.
-I recommend to never bet more than 4-5% of your BR, I usually take bets between 2% and 4% depending on the strength of the signals I am getting.

Notes:
This system is pretty solid, although I've had a few days where I was breakeven or maybe down 3% - 10% of BR. For anyone looking to follow, check my last few days performance, if it is strong, take a smaller risk. If I am slumping, you might want to increase your bets, because the system might be at the bottom end of a cycle.

System 2 (new system))

Rules:
-Simply take the under or over (0.5 Runs) in the first inning. A lot of books have this prop listed as a run or no run in the first. Same thing.
-Do not take bets larger than what's recommend. If the chase bets fail, you could end up losing 20-30% of your BR in one day!
-If the bet fails, simply chase it. Up until now I chased with a 1.5 ratio. I usually look to make back half of what my initial profit target was, so if I risk 2% in the first inning and lose, I will risk enough in order to win 3%. I doubt I will be doubling up!


Notes:
This system is in it's developing phase. I will give this one a little more attention but you need to be patient. After the first two days, it has performed very well. But again, it is a chase system and you could lose 6% on any given chase/bet. I live in Europe, so I will not be betting games after 7PM EST but will post the picks. Make sure your book takes in-game 1st inning bets before you try this out.

----

I think my only complaint with the systems is that they have crappy names. Seriously? "system 1 (regular system)"? Even Dr. Seuss had thing one and thing two. Let's ramp this up a bit. Like the Babe Ruth and Cy Young, or the Barry Bonds and Nolan Ryan.... Anything. Gas Cans/Aces.

I'm just spit balling here.

[TechnicalTrader]

I think my only complaint with the systems is that they have crappy names. Seriously? "system 1 (regular system)"? Even Dr. Seuss had thing one and thing two. Let's ramp this up a bit. Like the Babe Ruth and Cy Young, or the Barry Bonds and Nolan Ryan.... Anything. Gas Cans/Aces.

I'm just spit balling here.

LOL, ok.

You have just been named my head of PR. Give me some ideas regarding system names. they better make sense!!

[thekoreanmang]

LOL, ok.

You have just been named my head of PR. Give me some ideas regarding system names. they better make sense!!

Why don't we keep it simple, relevant, catchy and easy to remember which system does which by referring to System 1 as "Singles" (because we're only betting on the first inning or a single inning) and we can refer to System 2 as "Doubles" (because we're betting on two innings to accomplish our goal).

[thekoreanmang]

Today's picks:

System 1 (original system):

Over
BOS/TB, 3%
KC/MIA, 3%
DET/MIN, 4%
CHC/SD, 3%

Under
CLE/OAK, 3%


System 2 (chase system):

Under
BOS/TB, 1.5%
TEX/CIN, 1.5%
NYM/STL, 1.5%
CHC/SD, 1.5%

Over
ATL/ARZ, 1.5%
NYY/SEA, 1.5%

Two picks contradict eachother, best case scenario, we will have a runless first with a run in the second. Feel free to lay off of them. I only took the BOS/TB and TEX/CIN System 2 games because I will not be able to be online during the game. I will track their performance though, despite me taking them or not.

Let me know if you guys (and gal) have any questions.

Cheers, TT

Sorry, but I think you mean best case scenario is that we would have a run in the first but not in the second instead of the other way around. That way we win System 1 bets and System 2 bets.

[pairadux]

LOL, ok.

You have just been named my head of PR. Give me some ideas regarding system names. they better make sense!!

System 1
Big Unit
The Bird
Both reference the number one, and are nicknames (Randy Johnson, Mark Fydrich)

System 2
Sandman
Goose - Gossage (lots of 2 inning saves), also Maverick's #2 man

And that's about all the effort I'm throwing into this. Anyone else?

[TechnicalTrader]

Sorry, but I think you mean best case scenario is that we would have a run in the first but not in the second instead of the other way around. That way we win System 1 bets and System 2 bets.

fixed

[TechnicalTrader]

Trivial Pursuit: Which pitcher holds a first inning 0.00 ERA, has more than 10 starts but has a YTD ERA-tot above 5.00?

[Looking4Winners]

Trivial Pursuit: Which pitcher holds a first inning 0.00 ERA, has more than 10 starts but has a YTD ERA-tot above 5.00?

Tommy Milone

[Pointguard3]

TT quick question regarding the Sys. 1 1st inning plays...at one point the unders were hitting at a crazy rate...is that still the case?

thanks and GL