o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

**thekoreanmang** · 08-23-16, 06:27 PM

Interesting. BetOnline is not offering any Yes/No 2nd Inning bets at all as of this post. It's like they're on to us.

Also, since the birth of the Doubles System, whenever it conflicts with the Singles System, the Doubles System always win. Case in point Sunday's games and tonight's BOS/TB game so far.

I had a hunch that the best way to play conflicts between the two systems was to just play the Double System because at least you had an out to win your bet in the 2nd inning (although no guarantee) and in this way, you wouldn't be subject to losing juice.

**sammst3r** · 08-23-16, 09:38 PM

System 1 laid an egg today. Whomp whomp. Better luck to us tomorrow.

**jlani93** · 08-23-16, 10:26 PM

Not how I saw today going. Haha.

Today was the first time I was relieved I passed on the last 2 games. After the first 3 games were losses (system 1), I decided to skip the last 2.

The conflicting games was a concern for me today so I did a 4-team parlay using system 2 picks for the 1st inning. The first 3 picks won...had to wait on the last set of games to start. If only I picked CHC/SD-NO instead of NYY/SEA...(sigh).

Needless to say today was a complete loss for me, but I'm optimistic tomorrow will be a much better day.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-24-16, 08:21 AM

Took a big hit yesterday going 0 for 5 with the original system but we're back at it again. Ready to make it all back!

System 2 (chase) is killing it. I've only lost one bet, which took 4.2% of my BR. In order for this system to work I am going to have to obtain a 75% hit rate. That should be possible. I'll get the picks up soon.

System 1)
Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 169-115
Total Profit: 194.35%
Bankroll day 63: $2060.51

Hit rate: 59.51%

--

System 2 (Chase))
Bankroll day 1: $500.00
Record: 15-1
Total Profit: 23.65%
Bankroll day 3: $618.25

Hit rate: 93.75%

**doubledime** · 08-24-16, 09:41 AM

Still a great winning % and profit.

and that's what it is all about!

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-24-16, 11:11 AM

On the road... first under for system 2: PIT/HOU 2%

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-24-16, 11:47 AM

Here we go:

System 1 (non chase):

Overs:
COL/MIL, 4%
BOS/TB, 4%
KC/MIA, 4%
DET/MIN, 3%

Unders:
CHC/SD, 4%
NYY/SEA, 4%
NYM/STL, 2%
SF/LAD, 2%

System 2 (chase in to the 2nd):

Overs:
BOS/TB, 2%
KC/MIA, 2%

Unders:
HOU/PIT, 2%
CHC/SD, 2%
NYY/SEA, 2%
NYM/STL, 2%
SF/LAD, 2%

I added an additional variable to system 2 which I use for system 1, the reason why we don't have any contradicting picks.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-24-16, 12:14 PM

Good luck, mang. Not gonna lie, I'm a little trepidacious going into today's bets but I would say for the first time bankroll has increased during a baseball season and never have I bet this regularly and this much during MLB. I always crap out before ASB. Therefore, I'm trying to stay greedy in a disciplined way even though yesterday's results have produced a little fear. I know Buffet's mantra doesn't apply 100% to what we do here but since there is regression going both ways I must believe that a system will produce results.

Also, I like the fact that there are no conflicts between the systems. Do you mind I ask what that variable was?

And, I ask because if that variable is good enough to give good results to one system and not to another, I wonder if it's prudent to attribute more weight towards that variable and follow the more successful system while ignoring the opposite play in the less successful system.

However, I understand that System 2 is still very young so may be hard to assess how important that one variable is.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-24-16, 12:32 PM

Very simple, system 2 focused more on team stats, i added the combination of sps performance in the 1st and 2nd, something i didnt really take in to consideration because its hard to track while backtesting.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-24-16, 01:26 PM

Hawk007 overlaps with you except for CHC/SD. He has:

Yes

.50 Cub/SD -105

.20 Bos/TB +100
.20 Det/Min -130 risk
.20 KC/Mia +115
.10 TX/Cin -105

No

.10 LAA/Tor -110 risk

Thread is here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3280418-score-1st-inning-p6.html

He's been hot the past couple of weeks but didn't do so well yesterday.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-24-16, 01:33 PM

yeah, i took a look at it on Monday. He should really track his results, would be real interesting to see what type of performance he has.

But yeah,he's doing a great job!

As for CHC/SD, both pitchers have been great in the first, the entire season. The batter/pitcher matchups also don't look to great.The only thing I like about that game is the fact that both team is due to have a big first.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-24-16, 01:48 PM

Yeah. Wish he would track results too.

Hendricks has been good this year in 1st innings but not much info on Clemens though. Cubs batters have been tearing it up in 1st innings it seems while Padres hitters not so much.

With Bryant's hot streak, I'm afraid that he's going to go over in the first inning all by himself. If not him, there's still the guys around him (Fowler and Zobrist).

I already placed my bet on the under but I'm contemplating either juicing out my position or going heavier on the over for CHC/SD. No disrespect to you of course. I'm just trying to make sense and apply my own filters.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-24-16, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Yeah. Wish he would track results too.

Hendricks has been good this year in 1st innings but not much info on Clemens though. Cubs batters have been tearing it up in 1st innings it seems while Padres hitters not so much.

With Bryant's hot streak, I'm afraid that he's going to go over in the first inning all by himself. If not him, there's still the guys around him (Fowler and Zobrist).

I already placed my bet on the under but I'm contemplating either juicing out my position or going heavier on the over for CHC/SD. No disrespect to you of course. I'm just trying to make sense and apply my own filters.

No problem at all my man. Your bankroll, your bets. LOL I don't take stuff like that personal.

Of course I want to be right but this goes way further than one game. i've played so many games where my gut was aching but it turned out fine. Kershaw, Bumgarner type starts and I've also felt really, really confident with picks and watched both teams starting three go 3 up 3 down. It's a numbers game!

**sammst3r** · 08-24-16, 03:20 PM

That NYY/SEA game was a tough one to lose at -155. Ouch. Best of luck to us for the remaining games!

**BIG** · 08-24-16, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by sammst3r

That NYY/SEA game was a tough one to lose at -155. Ouch. Best of luck to us for the remaining games!

I got 155 and then I seen 190 on the chase I just did complete opposite and got lucky I guess I will take any Am lg. Game to score a run in an inning at +150 it sucked going against the system but what is up with those odds.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-24-16, 03:37 PM

Sigh. At least we got the COL/MIL. Hard to have faith right now but I guess that's the point of faith to begin with.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-25-16, 08:38 AM

Scratching system 2, don't have the time to crunch the numbers and can barely chase these damn late games. Sleep is a bit more important right now. LOL

Last night we went 4 and 4 with a loss of $33.73.

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 171-117
Total Profit: 189.54%
Bankroll day 63: $2026.78

Hit rate: 59.38%

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-25-16, 10:33 AM

Here we go, feel free to chase. I doubt I will (original system):

Overs
DET/MIN, 4%
BAL/WSH, 3%
KC/MIA, 4%

**thekoreanmang** · 08-25-16, 11:09 AM

Lit's git it! Tried to transfer points but it wouldn't let me. Non SBR PROs might be limited to one transfer a day.

**blackHIPPY** · 08-25-16, 11:11 AM

we are going 3-0

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-25-16, 11:30 AM

Thanks fellows.

Work has been super hectic lately. Sorta happy the season is almost over. It was a marathon for sure!

**doubledime** · 08-25-16, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Here we go, feel free to chase. I doubt I will (original system):

Overs
DET/MIN, 4%
BAL/WSH, 3%
KC/MIA, 4%

I hope Det/Min score 11 in the first. BOL today

**sammst3r** · 08-25-16, 01:01 PM

Forget 3-0!! We're going to go 2-1!! BOL to US!!!

**blackHIPPY** · 08-25-16, 06:40 PM

Should've been specific and said 3 wins 0 losses

**sammst3r** · 08-25-16, 09:06 PM

0-fer. Two in 1 week! ��

**thekoreanmang** · 08-25-16, 11:04 PM

S'all good. I think things will correct themselves eventually. Keep up the good work, TT.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-26-16, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

S'all good. I think things will correct themselves eventually. Keep up the good work, TT.

Actually, I'm thinking about shutting it down for the year. The combination of a pretty heavy workload right now and the fact that the system isn't really performing, I figured it might make more sense to just kill it and call it a season.

Wow, just noticed that only 2 of the 11 games saw runs in the first inning. Now that doesn't happen that often. Expect the laws of averages to take over soon...

**thekoreanmang** · 08-26-16, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Actually, I'm thinking about shutting it down for the year. The combination of a pretty heavy workload right now and the fact that the system isn't really performing, I figured it might make more sense to just kill it and call it a season.

Wow, just noticed that only 2 of the 11 games saw runs in the first inning. Now that doesn't happen that often. Expect the laws of averages to take over soon...

Dang, really? Oh well. If that is the case then this has been a special thing to be a part of. Sucks we experienced some bad recent losses but regression goes both ways so it's not totally surprising. Probably the prudent thing to stop I guess. Good job, friend.

**pairadux** · 08-26-16, 07:58 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Actually, I'm thinking about shutting it down for the year. The combination of a pretty heavy workload right now and the fact that the system isn't really performing, I figured it might make more sense to just kill it and call it a season.

Wow, just noticed that only 2 of the 11 games saw runs in the first inning. Now that doesn't happen that often. Expect the laws of averages to take over soon...

If indeed you shut it down, I'm sure we can all respect that. You're doing great research and putting a bunch of time into it. Thank you for being so active and responsive to other people's posts, and for being far more transparent than most of the other "pick experts".

To everyone else - thanks for keeping this a positive troll free board - it's been fun to follow this season.

**jlani93** · 08-26-16, 12:27 PM

We should have won all 3 of yesterdays picks...it was just weird day for sure w/just 2 games having 1st inning runs. In fact the entire series this week was wonky. lol. With new matchups starting today I am hopeful we would come back strong.

There were 6 games I initially was leaning towards to get a run in the 1st yesterday. Out of those 6, PIT/MIL was the only game to get it. SEA/CWS wasn't even on my radar at all w/Paxton 3-13; Renaldo 0-2. I was confident we were going to get all 3 yesterday I parlayed it.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-26-16, 12:46 PM

Screw it, one more day. This is the deal, if we are up today, we bet tomorrow. We lose today, we are done for the season.

Over
MIN/TOR, 3% (If no runs are scored, trail with an under pick)
KC/BOS, 2% (If no runs are scored, trail with an under pick)
CLE/TEX, 3%
TB/HOU, 2% (If no runs are scored, trail with an under pick)

Under
SEA/CWS, 3% (If runs are scored, trail with an under pick)
CIN/ARZ, 2%
ATL/SF, 3% (If runs are scored, trail with an over pick)

I hope I'm not overthinking these picks, put a sh!t load of time in to them!

I'm going to try and stay up for these.

**blackHIPPY** · 08-26-16, 12:53 PM

we are going 0-7

**jlani93** · 08-26-16, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by pairadux

If indeed you shut it down, I'm sure we can all respect that. You're doing great research and putting a bunch of time into it. Thank you for being so active and responsive to other people's posts, and for being far more transparent than most of the other "pick experts".

To everyone else - thanks for keeping this a positive troll free board - it's been fun to follow this season.

I agree with what these last 2 guys said TT. I personally think the last few days (last series of games) just wasn't a good one for us. I am confident we would turn things back around with the new matchups starting today, and end the season with a winning streak.

However if you decide to shut it down I will be sad to see it end but completely understand and respect your decision. I have learned a lot from you and appreciate all the time, well everything, you have done to make my first run at sports betting so much fun and profitable.

If you do reconsider...I'd be happy to help if there is anything I can do to help make it easier or cut down the time you spend on it. I work PT from home so pretty much make my own schedule.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-26-16, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by blackHIPPY

we are going 0-7

??xnij esrever eht

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-26-16, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by jlani93

I agree with what these last 2 guys said TT. I personally think the last few days (last series of games) just wasn't a good one for us. I am confident we would turn things back around with the new matchups starting today, and end the season with a winning streak.

However if you decide to shut it down I will be sad to see it end but completely understand and respect your decision. I have learned a lot from you and appreciate all the time, well everything, you have done to make my first run at sports betting so much fun and profitable.

If you do reconsider...I'd be happy to help if there is anything I can do to help make it easier or cut down the time you spend on it. I work PT from home so pretty much make my own schedule.

Thanks, maybe we can get a little chatroom going during the offseason where we can bounce back ideas and strategies. I'm ok with sharing the strat, just needs to be with the right "type of people"!

I'd also be real interested in refining it and creating something that evolves. I've messed around with plenty of trading systems in fx and one thing is for sure, if you don't evolve as a trader and evolve your system you will eventually go broke. The markets, just like sports lines are live, it's almost like they live. The only way to survive is to understand how and where they are moving.

In other words, my system just isnt in tune with the "market" and I need to find out why and how to fix it... Or, walk away. Again, my workload is massive right now but I love this game of baseball and finding trends too much to give up that easily. Sure, it helps that today is Friday! LOL