What's good, mang!? I saw that you tried to send me a message. What's up? I created space in my inbox for you.
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Message me in here and send me your email adr. This site is extremely annoying to message.
We are going to have a blast next season. Two systems are ready to go, hopefully we'll have three or four in which would hedge eachother. Nash is a beast, dude does such a great job helping me with my SDQL requests. I'm so happy he's helping!!
I'll get up the second leg of the chase (first inning bet) as soon as I get the signal. I thought I had one this morning on the STL/CIN game but it was a false alarm..Comment -
The new system hits at about 66-70% and has only missed four in a row once over the last five seasons. We are chasing signals not series.
With that said game B of this chase is MIL/COL tonight. Be aware that there is a crapload of juice on the over (run scored in the first).
I'm risking about 9% on this bet in order to cover my previous (3%) loss.
Again, today's bet is:
MIL/COL
overComment -
Not sure if I should continue in this thread or start a new one?
What do you guys think??
I'm not going to play any of the first two or three weeks of games due to volatile starts but we should be up and running on all pistons by the last week of April. I can't wait for this season to start!!Comment -
TT, I'm leaning towards the new thread. You could start a new one and just post the link to this original in your first post. ??? Either way, I'll be here.Comment -
Hi jl, good to see you back. Where have you been?
I think I will just open a new thread. CAn't wait to get things started. I also have another MLB system I'm working on,using the same types of models I've been using on the 1st inning approach. Could be interesting!Comment -
Yeah, me too. It's just going to take a few weeks for both of the systems to start producing picks. I will most likely gather at least 3, maybe even up to 6 weeks of data before I go live with both of them
The second system should perform better than the 1st inning system and it will be super active. Go take a look at my NBA system I am running, I expect about the same amount of picks each day. Somewhere around 5 and 15. It will also be and O/U system, just on the entire game.Comment -
Nice post
I glanced through your thread and was wondering what your final numbers were from last year
I will be starting trying an over under system of my own this year and would like to run my idea by you
Its a simple concept with a positive betting progression so there is no chasing involvedComment -
My final BR was $1785.45. I am not 100% sure what my final hit rate was,but I am 100% sure it was between 57% and 60%, somewhere around 58%. I honestly can't find my damn spread sheet so the only numbers I can work with are those which you see here.
I think the record was about 210-145.
Let's see what you got! I'd like to hear more on what you are working on.Comment -
Which books have 1st inning lines?Comment -
Is o/u .5 first inning the exact same thing as will there be a 1st inn score? Seems so...are the odds identical?Comment -
Yes. Same thingComment -
So no bets until late April, early May?
Do you have any system other than 1st inning runs?Comment -
Here we go! Are you going to continue in this thread or start another?Comment -
1) Will start a new thread.
2) Will most likely not get a signal until April 20th, the earliest.
3) I run 11 systems, not sure if I will post any other.
Last season was crazy, I doubled my BR alone with this system. I will be using a 10K bankroll this season and if the systems perform good enough (heck, if I end the season up 10% I'll be happy), then I'll invest 100K in 2018.
Can't wait to get going...Comment -
As for other systems, if someone is interested in running/opening a thread, using one of my systems, feel free to give this a shot. i'd be willing to help you set up the system and explain how to monitor it using SDQL:
Post 99
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Ok, here ya go. Here's a better sample size (much,much larger) of how a favorite who's line has increased in their favor over their last three games going up against a team with regressing odds over their last three games can be extremely potent!
2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units
Same system, just looking at home favorites:
2013: 195-106, avg odds -167 +18.4 units
2014: 176-83, avg odds -159 +47.9 units
2015: 187-84, avg odds -166 +58.9 units
2016: 176-96, avg odds -175 +15.2 units
Very, very simple...
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You'd be looking at 400-500 picks a season and would need to post EVERY SINGLE DAY! Anyone?Comment -
What's up, TT?? Spring is in the air, buddy!As for other systems, if someone is interested in running/opening a thread, using one of my systems, feel free to give this a shot. i'd be willing to help you set up the system and explain how to monitor it using SDQL:
Post 99
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Ok, here ya go. Here's a better sample size (much,much larger) of how a favorite who's line has increased in their favor over their last three games going up against a team with regressing odds over their last three games can be extremely potent!
2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units
Same system, just looking at home favorites:
2013: 195-106, avg odds -167 +18.4 units
2014: 176-83, avg odds -159 +47.9 units
2015: 187-84, avg odds -166 +58.9 units
2016: 176-96, avg odds -175 +15.2 units
Very, very simple...
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You'd be looking at 400-500 picks a season and would need to post EVERY SINGLE DAY! Anyone?
Like this increasing/regressing odds thing. I nominate you to run the thread!
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TT thank you for your research. I'm very interested in the system you just posted. I just need a little clarification. If the Mets opened at -108 and closed at -120 on 4/3, then opened at +110 and closed at +100 on 4/4, opened at -140 and closed at -160 on 4/5, then they would be a play against, let's say the reds, if the opposite movement happened against the reds over the last 3 games?Comment -
Man, feels like a family reunion in here. Capy, Mang Jlani, Cracker, DD....
This will be fun!
Rusty, this has nothing to do with intraday line movement, strictly closing line.
Example:
Mets play the Reds and the Mets line is -190. The Mets line yesterday was -160 and two games ago it was -130. That's a green light on the Mets. Now the reds line has to be the opposite. Moving from a dog (two games ago) to a strong dog today.
If that is the case, we play the Mets.Comment -
Understood. A lot more simple than I thought. Good stuff TT. Do you have access to how this system did in years prior to 2013? Or perhaps how playing the run line performed in this system? I don't mean to be a pain in the azz. Great work on your 1st inning thread last year. I kept my eye on it but didn't pull the trigger. I will be tailing that system as well this year. Best of luck!Comment -
Scratch that. I just saw the RL results in the other thread. Sounds like a great system.Comment -
Good luck with this,I hope you win! What I don't understand (a lot),what is a "strong dog" ? And what I really can't get is the correlation btwn. the closing line on back to back to back games and the probability of a score in the 1st inning! ?? I know and understand technical analysis...on this one,don't know what I am missing???Comment -
No problem. This system would play Fav's only. Might not be your style. No biggie thoughComment -
TT,
Good to see you going live again on the 1st inning plays. Love this prop, even though we approach it a little differently.
11 systems? Holy $H!@#. How do you track all of those? Have you got a spreadsheet that you've made, or do you have a program that you recommend? I've made a basic one, but would love any insight into a better way to track my measly little two systems.Comment -
Try this:
I'd say this is by far the best tool you can get for free. I'd even go out on a limb and claim they are better than 2/3's of what you can purchase out there.
It's going to be a battle this season but I retired from the game of baseball, so I'll have plenty more time for sportsbetting. Right now I am looking to reduce to 4-6 systems. I WILL NOT risk more than 10% of BR daily, so if I do decide to run all systems, my unit sizes would be extremely small. Something I need to figure out.
I hope DD and myself put up some more great numbers but more importantly I hope we can all learn from each other in here and stay troll free!Last edited by SBR Ivy; 05-09-17, 10:57 AM.Comment -
Can I ask what variables you are using in this system? I was looking at doing these first inning totals and a few I was thinking of were obviously the main ones that go into the regular line but also the strength of the top of the lineup relative to the bottom. Also, some pitchers like sinker ball pitchers can struggle in the first inning more than normal. I was wondering if you have anything on that?Last edited by SBR Ivy; 05-09-17, 10:57 AM.Comment -
I handed out plenty of hits throughout this thread regarding how I cap the first. I'd recommend just reading through it from the first page on wards. As for sinkerball pitchers, no I haven't looked in to that but the approach is interesting.
One of my coaches told me once that "Baseball is a game which has a short memory", he was referring to individual performances from years or even months ago have almost zero affect on your current day performance and how if you are going to succeed in the game you need to forget about your accomplishments and slumps from the past and focus on now. That really sunk in and is one of my main strategies while capping games.... I try to not look back to far. The game changes, players change. Hell, look at R.A. Dickey and his transformation from bullpen guy, to knuckle baller ace, to innings eater, to non significant factor in the league...Comment -
Checking in.
What system/systems are you posting?
Good luck.Comment
